20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $63.43 | CC-SS: $66.50 (banked floor $64.86) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $107,700 | (ND $6.85 + SW $47) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $11,175/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $443/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-52,930 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 18 Sep 2026 · 2d | 20 × $47 | 92% | $5,700 | $5,263 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 25 Sep 2026 · 9d | 19 × $46.50 | 78% | $5,827 | $1,398 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 15 × $52 | 18 Sep | 2d | 22.8% | 99%hist 96% | 2%hist 3% | +0pp | $30 | $450 | -$5,250 | $21,721 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 15 × $52 22.8% OTM over spot $42.35 18 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.03 mid) = $30 credit for the 2d cycle → $450/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $52) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $52.03) 99% EV / mo +$346 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 54% whole by 9mo vs 53% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-39/mo median; plan ~$-26/mo after 68% keep · $-131 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.8-3.5], measured ONLY among the 54% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,120 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $65 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.03/sh now → $1.43 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.02/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.41/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $52 is $15 below CC-SS $66.50: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.02 collected) or spot ≥ $52.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $52)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.50, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,930 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$53,507 − CC assignment net of premium (15 × $52): -$21,721 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $65): -$725 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,869 (+$31,061 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,324 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,545, the opportunity cost of earning $450/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $51 | 25 Sep | 9d | 20.4% | 92%hist 96% | 17%hist 14% | +4pp | $580 | $1,933 | -$3,767 | $30,421 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $51 20.4% OTM over spot $42.35 25 Sep 2026 (9d, $0.32 mid) = $580 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,933/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $51) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $51.33) 93% EV / mo +$990 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 42% whole by 9mo vs 38% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $755/mo median; plan ~$513/mo after 68% keep · $4,495 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.3 mo [1.3-4.9], measured ONLY among the 42% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,071 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $58 @ 81% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.29/sh now → $2.33 mid-life (likely $1.89–$3.07) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.29/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.04/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 322 simulated challenges: the $51 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $52 (overshoots $1.24). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $51 is $16 below CC-SS $66.50: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.29 collected) or spot ≥ $51.33 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $51)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.50, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,930 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$53,507 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $51): -$30,421 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-29,844 (+$23,086 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,324 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-27,520, the opportunity cost of earning $1,933/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 18 × $47.50 | 18 Sep | 2d | 12.1% | 94%hist 96% | 13%hist 14% | +5pp | $252 | $3,780 | -$1,920 | $33,949 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $47.50 12.1% OTM over spot $42.35 18 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.17 mid) = $252 credit for the 2d cycle → $3,780/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47.50) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $47.66) 94% EV / mo +$2,449 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 50% whole by 9mo vs 46% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,123/mo median; plan ~$1,443/mo after 68% keep · $11,130 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.2 mo [1.0-4.3], measured ONLY among the 50% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,988 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $58 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.76/sh now → $1.24 mid-life (likely $1.33–$2.31) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 165 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $49 (overshoots $1.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47.50 is $19 below CC-SS $66.50: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.14 collected) or spot ≥ $47.66 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.50, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,930 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$53,507 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $47.50): -$33,949 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $65): -$290 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-33,662 (+$19,268 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,324 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-31,338, the opportunity cost of earning $3,780/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 20 × $47 | 18 Sep | 2d | 11.0% | 92%hist 96% | 17%hist 14% | +8pp | $380 | $5,700 | — | $38,621 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $47 11.0% OTM over spot $42.35 18 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.21 mid) = $380 credit for the 2d cycle → $5,700/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $47.20) 93% EV / mo +$3,650 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 52% whole by 9mo vs 45% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,223/mo median; plan ~$2,192/mo after 68% keep · $15,870 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.0-3.8], measured ONLY among the 52% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,068 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $58 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.73/sh now → $1.22 mid-life (likely $1.21–$2.39) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 230 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $48 (overshoots $1.12). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47 is $20 below CC-SS $66.50: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.19 collected) or spot ≥ $47.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.50, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,930 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$53,507 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $47): -$38,621 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-38,044 (+$14,886 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,324 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-35,720, the opportunity cost of earning $5,700/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 20 × $45.50 | 18 Sep | 2d | 7.4% | 84%hist 86% | 32%hist 30% | +15pp | $760 | $11,400 | +$5,700 | $41,241 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $45.50 7.4% OTM over spot $42.35 18 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.41 mid) = $760 credit for the 2d cycle → $11,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45.50) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $45.91) 87% EV / mo +$6,125 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +15pp 60% whole by 9mo vs 45% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $5,450/mo median; plan ~$3,706/mo after 68% keep · $28,181 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.2 mo [1.3-4.0], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 17% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,569 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $58 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.65/sh now → $1.16 mid-life (likely $1.32–$2.62) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.38/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.78/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 514 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $47 (overshoots $1.31). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45.50 is $21 below CC-SS $66.50: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.38 collected) or spot ≥ $45.91 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.50, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,930 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$53,507 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $45.50): -$41,241 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-40,664 (+$12,266 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,324 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-38,340, the opportunity cost of earning $11,400/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 17 × $56 | 25 Sep | 9d | 32.2% | 97%hist 96% | 6%hist 3% | +1pp | $136 | $453 | -$5,373 | $17,715 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $56 32.2% OTM over spot $42.35 25 Sep 2026 (9d, $0.11 mid) = $136 credit for the 9d cycle → $453/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $56) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $56.12) 97% EV / mo +$250 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 45% whole by 9mo vs 44% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-79/mo median; plan ~$-54/mo after 68% keep · $-463 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.5 mo [1.3-5.0], measured ONLY among the 45% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 2% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,476 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $64 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.83/sh now → $2.71 mid-life (likely $1.86–$3.11) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.63/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 56 simulated challenges: the $56 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 9, at $57 (overshoots $1.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $56 is $11 below CC-SS $66.50: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $56.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $56)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.50, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,930 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$53,507 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $56): -$17,715 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $65): -$435 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,573 (+$35,357 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,324 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,249, the opportunity cost of earning $453/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $51 | 25 Sep | 9d | 20.4% | 92%hist 96% | 17%hist 14% | +4pp | $580 | $1,933 | -$3,893 | $30,421 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $51 20.4% OTM over spot $42.35 25 Sep 2026 (9d, $0.32 mid) = $580 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,933/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $51) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $51.33) 93% EV / mo +$990 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 42% whole by 9mo vs 38% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $755/mo median; plan ~$513/mo after 68% keep · $4,495 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.3 mo [1.3-4.9], measured ONLY among the 42% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,071 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $58 @ 81% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.29/sh now → $2.33 mid-life (likely $1.89–$3.07) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.29/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.04/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 322 simulated challenges: the $51 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $52 (overshoots $1.24). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $51 is $16 below CC-SS $66.50: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.29 collected) or spot ≥ $51.33 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $51)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.50, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,930 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$53,507 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $51): -$30,421 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-29,844 (+$23,086 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,324 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-27,520, the opportunity cost of earning $1,933/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 20 × $48.50 | 25 Sep | 9d | 14.5% | 86%hist 86% | 29%hist 26% | +6pp | $1,120 | $3,733 | -$2,093 | $34,881 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $48.50 14.5% OTM over spot $42.35 25 Sep 2026 (9d, $0.60 mid) = $1,120 credit for the 9d cycle → $3,733/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48.50) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $49.10) 88% EV / mo +$1,728 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 48% whole by 9mo vs 42% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,600/mo median; plan ~$1,088/mo after 68% keep · $9,838 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.1 mo [1.4-4.8], measured ONLY among the 48% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,164 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $55 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.03/sh now → $2.14 mid-life (likely $2.07–$3.20) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.56/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.58/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 663 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $50 (overshoots $1.27). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48.50 is $18 below CC-SS $66.50: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.56 collected) or spot ≥ $49.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.50, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,930 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$53,507 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $48.50): -$34,881 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-34,304 (+$18,626 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,324 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-31,980, the opportunity cost of earning $3,733/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 19 × $46.50 | 25 Sep | 9d | 9.8% | 78%hist 84% | 46%hist 39% | +8pp | $1,748 | $5,827 | — | $36,253 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $46.50 9.8% OTM over spot $42.35 25 Sep 2026 (9d, $0.97 mid) = $1,748 credit for the 9d cycle → $5,827/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $46.50) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $47.47) 82% EV / mo +$2,271 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 48% whole by 9mo vs 39% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,146/mo median; plan ~$1,459/mo after 68% keep · $13,950 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.8 mo [1.6-4.7], measured ONLY among the 48% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 36% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,053 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $55 @ 86% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.83/sh now → $2.00 mid-life (likely $2.10–$3.22) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.92/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.08/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,093 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $48 (overshoots $1.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $46.50 is $20 below CC-SS $66.50: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.92 collected) or spot ≥ $47.47 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.50, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,930 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$53,507 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $46.50): -$36,253 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $65): -$145 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-35,821 (+$17,109 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,324 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-33,497, the opportunity cost of earning $5,827/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 19 × $43.50 | 25 Sep | 9d | 2.7% | 61%hist 65% | 83%hist 79% | +9pp | $3,496 | $11,653 | +$5,827 | $40,205 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $43.50 2.7% OTM over spot $42.35 25 Sep 2026 (9d, $1.89 mid) = $3,496 credit for the 9d cycle → $11,653/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $43.50) 61% Breach risk 39% POP (stays ≤ $45.39) 72% EV / mo +$2,770 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 50% whole by 9mo vs 42% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~6.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,038/mo median; plan ~$2,066/mo after 68% keep · $19,122 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.7 mo [1.6-4.4], measured ONLY among the 50% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 67% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$82 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $54 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.54/sh now → $1.80 mid-life (likely $2.42–$3.35) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.84/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.04/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,019 simulated challenges: the $44 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $45 (overshoots $1.19). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $43.50 is $23 below CC-SS $66.50: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.46/sh (~25% of the $1.84 collected) or spot ≥ $45.39 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $44)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.50, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,930 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$53,507 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $43.50): -$40,205 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $65): -$145 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-39,773 (+$13,157 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,324 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-37,449, the opportunity cost of earning $11,653/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 36 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.108 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$53,507 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,324
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $47 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.19 | 20/20 | $5,700 | $5,257 | 92% | 93% | +$3,650 | -$38,621 | 281.9% | $-38,044 (vs do-nothing $-35,720) |
| $46.50 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.24 | 16/20 | $5,760 | $5,354 | 90% | 91% | +$3,495 | -$31,617 | 230.8% | $-31,620 (vs do-nothing $-29,296) |
| $46 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.31 | 13/20 | $6,045 | $5,668 | 87% | 89% | +$3,523 | -$26,248 | 191.6% | $-26,686 (vs do-nothing $-24,362) |
| $45.50 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.38 | 10/20 | $5,700 | $5,351 | 84% | 87% | +$3,063 | -$20,621 | 150.5% | $-21,494 (vs do-nothing $-19,170) |
| $45 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.50 | 8/20 | $6,000 | $5,669 | 81% | 85% | +$3,153 | -$16,800 | 122.6% | $-17,964 (vs do-nothing $-15,640) |
| $46.50 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $0.92 | 19/20 | $5,827 | $5,393 | 78% | 82% | +$2,271 | -$36,253 | 264.6% | $-35,821 (vs do-nothing $-33,497) |
| $44.50 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.59 | 7/20 | $6,195 | $5,874 | 76% | 82% | +$2,854 | -$14,987 | 109.4% | $-16,296 (vs do-nothing $-13,972) |
| $46 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.04 | 17/20 | $5,893 | $5,478 | 76% | 81% | +$2,128 | -$33,083 | 241.5% | $-32,941 (vs do-nothing $-30,617) |
| $46.50 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.53 | 20/20 | $5,738 | $5,294 | 73% | 79% | +$1,754 | -$36,941 | 269.6% | $-36,364 (vs do-nothing $-34,040) |
| $45.50 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.16 | 15/20 | $5,800 | $5,404 | 73% | 79% | +$1,820 | -$29,761 | 217.2% | $-29,909 (vs do-nothing $-27,585) |
| $44 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.75 | 5/20 | $5,625 | $5,323 | 72% | 79% | +$2,445 | -$10,875 | 79.4% | $-12,474 (vs do-nothing $-10,150) |
| $46 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.66 | 18/20 | $5,602 | $5,178 | 71% | 78% | +$1,612 | -$33,913 | 247.5% | $-33,626 (vs do-nothing $-31,302) |
| $45 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.31 | 13/20 | $5,677 | $5,299 | 70% | 77% | +$1,685 | -$26,248 | 191.6% | $-26,686 (vs do-nothing $-24,362) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $46 | 23d | 9 Oct 2026 | $2.19 | 20/20 | $5,713 | $5,270 | 69% | 77% | +$1,553 | -$36,621 | 267.3% | $-36,044 (vs do-nothing $-33,720) |
| $45.50 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.81 | 17/20 | $5,769 | $5,354 | 69% | 77% | +$1,579 | -$32,624 | 238.1% | $-32,482 (vs do-nothing $-30,158) |
| $44.50 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.46 | 12/20 | $5,840 | $5,472 | 67% | 76% | +$1,588 | -$24,649 | 179.9% | $-25,232 (vs do-nothing $-22,908) |
| $45 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.98 | 16/20 | $5,940 | $5,534 | 67% | 76% | +$1,561 | -$31,233 | 228.0% | $-31,236 (vs do-nothing $-28,912) |
| $43.50 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.90 | 5/20 | $6,750 | $6,448 | 66% | 76% | +$2,545 | -$11,050 | 80.7% | $-12,649 (vs do-nothing $-10,325) |
| $45 | 23d | 9 Oct 2026 | $2.54 | 17/20 | $5,632 | $5,217 | 65% | 75% | +$1,438 | -$32,233 | 235.3% | $-32,091 (vs do-nothing $-29,767) |
| $44.50 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.11 | 15/20 | $5,934 | $5,538 | 64% | 74% | +$1,381 | -$29,836 | 217.8% | $-29,984 (vs do-nothing $-27,660) |
| $44 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.65 | 11/20 | $6,050 | $5,691 | 64% | 74% | +$1,565 | -$22,936 | 167.4% | $-23,664 (vs do-nothing $-21,340) |
| $44 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.33 | 13/20 | $5,679 | $5,302 | 62% | 73% | +$1,309 | -$26,222 | 191.4% | $-26,660 (vs do-nothing $-24,336) |
| $44 | 23d | 9 Oct 2026 | $2.86 | 15/20 | $5,596 | $5,199 | 61% | 73% | +$1,220 | -$29,461 | 215.0% | $-29,609 (vs do-nothing $-27,285) |
| $43.50 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.84 | 10/20 | $6,133 | $5,784 | 61% | 72% | +$1,458 | -$21,161 | 154.5% | $-22,034 (vs do-nothing $-19,710) |
| $43 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.10 | 4/20 | $6,600 | $6,307 | 60% | 73% | +$2,197 | -$8,960 | 65.4% | $-10,704 (vs do-nothing $-8,380) |
| $43.50 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.52 | 12/20 | $5,670 | $5,302 | 60% | 72% | +$1,210 | -$24,577 | 179.4% | $-25,160 (vs do-nothing $-22,836) |
| $43 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.06 | 9/20 | $6,180 | $5,840 | 57% | 71% | +$1,371 | -$19,296 | 140.9% | $-20,315 (vs do-nothing $-17,991) |
| $43 | 23d | 9 Oct 2026 | $3.30 | 13/20 | $5,596 | $5,218 | 57% | 71% | +$1,130 | -$26,261 | 191.7% | $-26,699 (vs do-nothing $-24,375) |
| $43 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.74 | 11/20 | $5,651 | $5,293 | 57% | 71% | +$1,139 | -$22,837 | 166.7% | $-23,565 (vs do-nothing $-21,241) |
| $42.50 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.98 | 10/20 | $5,588 | $5,238 | 54% | 69% | +$1,070 | -$21,021 | 153.4% | $-21,894 (vs do-nothing $-19,570) |
| $42.50 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.29 | 8/20 | $6,107 | $5,776 | 54% | 69% | +$1,241 | -$17,368 | 126.8% | $-18,532 (vs do-nothing $-16,208) |
| $42.50 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.32 | 3/20 | $5,940 | $5,656 | 53% | 70% | +$1,675 | -$6,804 | 49.7% | $-8,693 (vs do-nothing $-6,369) |
| $42 | 23d | 9 Oct 2026 | $3.75 | 12/20 | $5,870 | $5,501 | 52% | 69% | +$1,038 | -$24,901 | 181.8% | $-25,484 (vs do-nothing $-23,160) |
| $42 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.20 | 10/20 | $6,000 | $5,651 | 52% | 68% | +$1,034 | -$21,301 | 155.5% | $-22,174 (vs do-nothing $-19,850) |
| $42 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.54 | 7/20 | $5,927 | $5,605 | 50% | 68% | +$1,101 | -$15,372 | 112.2% | $-16,681 (vs do-nothing $-14,357) |
| $42 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.59 | 3/20 | $7,155 | $6,871 | 47% | 67% | +$1,735 | -$6,873 | 50.2% | $-8,762 (vs do-nothing $-6,438) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.