20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $63.43 | CC-SS: $66.22 (banked floor $64.59) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $107,700 | (ND $6.85 + SW $47) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $11,160/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $375/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-51,020 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 25 Sep 2026 · 8d | 19 × $47 | 78% | $5,629 | $1,749 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 15 × $56 | 25 Sep | 8d | 30.3% | 97%hist 96% | 5%hist 3% | +1pp | $105 | $394 | -$5,235 | $15,229 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 15 × $56 30.3% OTM over spot $42.98 25 Sep 2026 (8d, $0.12 mid) = $105 credit for the 8d cycle → $394/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $56) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $56.12) 97% EV / mo +$226 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 48% whole by 9mo vs 47% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $21/mo median; plan ~$14/mo after 68% keep · $57 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.2 mo [1.2-4.1], measured ONLY among the 48% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 2% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,438 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $64 @ 81% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.34/sh now → $2.36 mid-life (likely $1.48–$3.10) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 59 simulated challenges: the $56 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 8, at $57 (overshoots $1.50). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $56 is $10 below CC-SS $66.22: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.07 collected) or spot ≥ $56.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $56)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.33 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.22, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-51,020 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$51,774 − CC assignment net of premium (15 × $56): -$15,229 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $65): -$566 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,042 (+$35,978 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,512 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,530, the opportunity cost of earning $394/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $51 | 25 Sep | 8d | 18.6% | 91%hist 96% | 18%hist 14% | +5pp | $560 | $2,100 | -$3,529 | $29,886 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $51 18.6% OTM over spot $42.98 25 Sep 2026 (8d, $0.32 mid) = $560 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,100/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $51) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $51.31) 92% EV / mo +$989 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 50% whole by 9mo vs 45% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $957/mo median; plan ~$650/mo after 68% keep · $5,594 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.4 mo [1.2-4.8], measured ONLY among the 50% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,487 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $58 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.86/sh now → $2.02 mid-life (likely $1.65–$2.74) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.28/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.74/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 305 simulated challenges: the $51 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $52 (overshoots $1.25). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $51 is $15 below CC-SS $66.22: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.28 collected) or spot ≥ $51.31 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $51)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.33 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.22, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-51,020 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$51,774 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $51): -$29,886 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-29,132 (+$21,888 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,512 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-27,620, the opportunity cost of earning $2,100/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 19 × $48.50 | 25 Sep | 8d | 12.8% | 84%hist 86% | 33%hist 30% | +8pp | $1,007 | $3,776 | -$1,853 | $32,667 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $48.50 12.8% OTM over spot $42.98 25 Sep 2026 (8d, $0.57 mid) = $1,007 credit for the 8d cycle → $3,776/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48.50) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $49.08) 86% EV / mo +$1,369 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 48% whole by 9mo vs 40% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,518/mo median; plan ~$1,032/mo after 68% keep · $10,047 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.6 mo [1.4-5.1], measured ONLY among the 48% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,534 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $57 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.63/sh now → $1.86 mid-life (likely $1.70–$2.77) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.53/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.33/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 670 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $50 (overshoots $1.16). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48.50 is $18 below CC-SS $66.22: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.13/sh (~25% of the $0.53 collected) or spot ≥ $49.08 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.33 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.22, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-51,020 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$51,774 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $48.50): -$32,667 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $65): -$113 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-32,026 (+$18,994 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,512 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-30,514, the opportunity cost of earning $3,776/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 19 × $47 | 25 Sep | 8d | 9.3% | 78%hist 84% | 46%hist 39% | +5pp | $1,501 | $5,629 | — | $35,023 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $47 9.3% OTM over spot $42.98 25 Sep 2026 (8d, $0.83 mid) = $1,501 credit for the 8d cycle → $5,629/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $47.84) 82% EV / mo +$1,725 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 47% whole by 9mo vs 42% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,145/mo median; plan ~$1,458/mo after 68% keep · $13,964 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.8 mo [1.4-5.1], measured ONLY among the 47% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 35% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,863 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $56 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.50/sh now → $1.77 mid-life (likely $1.82–$2.83) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.79/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.98/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,045 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $48 (overshoots $1.16). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47 is $19 below CC-SS $66.22: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.79 collected) or spot ≥ $47.84 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.33 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.22, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-51,020 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$51,774 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $47): -$35,023 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $65): -$113 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-34,382 (+$16,638 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,512 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-32,870, the opportunity cost of earning $5,629/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 19 × $44 | 25 Sep | 8d | 2.4% | 60%hist 70% | 84%hist 79% | +11pp | $3,135 | $11,756 | +$6,127 | $39,089 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $44 2.4% OTM over spot $42.98 25 Sep 2026 (8d, $1.69 mid) = $3,135 credit for the 8d cycle → $11,756/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $44) 60% Breach risk 40% POP (stays ≤ $45.70) 71% EV / mo +$2,116 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +11pp 49% whole by 9mo vs 38% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~7.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,051/mo median; plan ~$2,074/mo after 68% keep · $19,711 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.7 mo [1.4-4.3], measured ONLY among the 49% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 67% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$111 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $55 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.25/sh now → $1.59 mid-life (likely $2.13–$3.01) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,022 simulated challenges: the $44 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $45 (overshoots $1.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $44 is $22 below CC-SS $66.22: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.41/sh (~25% of the $1.65 collected) or spot ≥ $45.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $44)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.33 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.22, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-51,020 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$51,774 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $44): -$39,089 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $65): -$113 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-38,448 (+$12,572 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,512 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-36,936, the opportunity cost of earning $11,756/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 24 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.114 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$51,774 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,512
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $47 | 8d | 25 Sep 2026 | $0.79 | 19/20 | $5,629 | $5,272 | 78% | 82% | +$1,725 | -$35,023 | 255.6% | $-34,382 (vs do-nothing $-32,870) |
| $46.50 | 8d | 25 Sep 2026 | $0.90 | 17/20 | $5,738 | $5,416 | 75% | 80% | +$1,649 | -$31,999 | 233.6% | $-31,585 (vs do-nothing $-30,073) |
| $47 | 15d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.42 | 20/20 | $5,680 | $5,305 | 73% | 79% | +$1,476 | -$35,606 | 259.9% | $-34,852 (vs do-nothing $-33,340) |
| $46 | 8d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.02 | 15/20 | $5,738 | $5,452 | 73% | 78% | +$1,524 | -$28,804 | 210.3% | $-28,617 (vs do-nothing $-27,105) |
| $46.50 | 15d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.56 | 18/20 | $5,616 | $5,277 | 71% | 77% | +$1,399 | -$32,693 | 238.6% | $-32,166 (vs do-nothing $-30,654) |
| $45.50 | 8d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.15 | 13/20 | $5,606 | $5,357 | 70% | 77% | +$1,353 | -$25,445 | 185.7% | $-25,484 (vs do-nothing $-23,972) |
| $46 | 15d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.70 | 17/20 | $5,780 | $5,459 | 69% | 76% | +$1,345 | -$31,489 | 229.8% | $-31,075 (vs do-nothing $-29,563) |
| $46 | 22d | 9 Oct 2026 | $2.23 | 19/20 | $5,778 | $5,421 | 67% | 75% | +$1,178 | -$34,187 | 249.5% | $-33,546 (vs do-nothing $-32,034) |
| $45 | 8d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.30 | 12/20 | $5,850 | $5,619 | 67% | 75% | +$1,290 | -$23,908 | 174.5% | $-24,060 (vs do-nothing $-22,548) |
| $45.50 | 15d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.85 | 16/20 | $5,920 | $5,617 | 66% | 75% | +$1,277 | -$30,197 | 220.4% | $-29,896 (vs do-nothing $-28,384) |
| $45 | 15d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.98 | 15/20 | $5,940 | $5,655 | 64% | 73% | +$1,106 | -$28,864 | 210.7% | $-28,677 (vs do-nothing $-27,165) |
| $44.50 | 8d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.47 | 11/20 | $6,064 | $5,851 | 63% | 73% | +$1,225 | -$22,278 | 162.6% | $-22,544 (vs do-nothing $-21,032) |
| $45 | 22d | 9 Oct 2026 | $2.57 | 16/20 | $5,607 | $5,304 | 63% | 73% | +$995 | -$29,845 | 217.8% | $-29,544 (vs do-nothing $-28,032) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $44.50 | 15d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.20 | 13/20 | $5,720 | $5,471 | 61% | 72% | +$1,073 | -$25,380 | 185.3% | $-25,419 (vs do-nothing $-23,907) |
| $44 | 8d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.65 | 10/20 | $6,188 | $5,992 | 60% | 71% | +$1,114 | -$20,573 | 150.2% | $-20,952 (vs do-nothing $-19,440) |
| $44 | 15d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.40 | 12/20 | $5,760 | $5,529 | 59% | 71% | +$1,011 | -$23,788 | 173.6% | $-23,940 (vs do-nothing $-22,428) |
| $44 | 22d | 9 Oct 2026 | $2.94 | 14/20 | $5,613 | $5,346 | 59% | 71% | +$838 | -$26,996 | 197.1% | $-26,922 (vs do-nothing $-25,410) |
| $43.50 | 8d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.85 | 9/20 | $6,244 | $6,067 | 56% | 69% | +$997 | -$18,786 | 137.1% | $-19,278 (vs do-nothing $-17,766) |
| $43.50 | 15d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.56 | 11/20 | $5,632 | $5,419 | 56% | 69% | +$821 | -$22,179 | 161.9% | $-22,445 (vs do-nothing $-20,933) |
| $43 | 22d | 9 Oct 2026 | $3.30 | 13/20 | $5,850 | $5,601 | 54% | 69% | +$708 | -$25,900 | 189.1% | $-25,939 (vs do-nothing $-24,427) |
| $43 | 15d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.79 | 10/20 | $5,580 | $5,385 | 53% | 68% | +$756 | -$20,433 | 149.1% | $-20,812 (vs do-nothing $-19,300) |
| $43 | 8d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.07 | 8/20 | $6,210 | $6,051 | 53% | 68% | +$873 | -$16,922 | 123.5% | $-17,528 (vs do-nothing $-16,016) |
| $42.50 | 15d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.00 | 10/20 | $6,000 | $5,805 | 51% | 67% | +$690 | -$20,723 | 151.3% | $-21,102 (vs do-nothing $-19,590) |
| $42.50 | 8d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.25 | 7/20 | $5,906 | $5,765 | 49% | 66% | +$586 | -$15,031 | 109.7% | $-15,750 (vs do-nothing $-14,238) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.