20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $63.43 | CC-SS: $66.67 (banked floor $64.83) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $107,700 | (ND $6.85 + SW $47) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $12,327/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $272/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-51,150 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 2 Oct 2026 · 4d | 19 × $47.50 | 83% | $6,270 | $4,176 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 9 Oct 2026 · 11d | 20 × $47 | 73% | $6,218 | $883 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 13 × $56 | 2 Oct | 4d | 28.3% | 99%hist 96% | 3%hist 3% | +1pp | $39 | $292 | -$5,978 | $13,833 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 13 × $56 28.3% OTM over spot $43.66 2 Oct 2026 (4d, $0.04 mid) = $39 credit for the 4d cycle → $292/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $56) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $56.03) 99% EV / mo +$218 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 50% whole by 9mo vs 49% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-21/mo median; plan ~$-14/mo after 68% keep · $-87 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.9-3.6], measured ONLY among the 50% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,227 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $66 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 13 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.46/sh now → $1.74 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.03/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.71/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $56 is $11 below CC-SS $66.67: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.03 collected) or spot ≥ $56.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $56)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.48 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.67, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-51,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$52,327 − CC assignment net of premium (13 × $56): -$13,833 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (7 × $65): -$1,163 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,819 (+$37,331 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,145 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,674, the opportunity cost of earning $292/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $62.73 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,710, position total $-16,488 (+$34,662 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $49.50 | 2 Oct | 4d | 13.4% | 91%hist 96% | 18%hist 14% | +6pp | $400 | $3,000 | -$3,270 | $33,942 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $49.50 13.4% OTM over spot $43.66 2 Oct 2026 (4d, $0.23 mid) = $400 credit for the 4d cycle → $3,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $49.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $49.73) 92% EV / mo +$1,537 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 52% whole by 9mo vs 47% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,664/mo median; plan ~$1,132/mo after 68% keep · $9,200 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.4 mo [1.2-4.0], measured ONLY among the 52% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,449 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $59 @ 84% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.01/sh now → $1.42 mid-life (likely $1.23–$2.30) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.22/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 290 simulated challenges: the $50 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $51 (overshoots $1.31). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $49.50 is $17 below CC-SS $66.67: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $49.73 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $50)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.48 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.67, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-51,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$52,327 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $49.50): -$33,942 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-32,765 (+$18,385 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,145 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-30,620, the opportunity cost of earning $3,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $62.73 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$26,060, position total $-33,845 (+$17,305 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 18 × $48.50 | 2 Oct | 4d | 11.1% | 88%hist 86% | 25%hist 25% | +6pp | $558 | $4,185 | -$2,085 | $32,150 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $48.50 11.1% OTM over spot $43.66 2 Oct 2026 (4d, $0.33 mid) = $558 credit for the 4d cycle → $4,185/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48.50) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $48.83) 89% EV / mo +$2,058 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 54% whole by 9mo vs 47% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,190/mo median; plan ~$1,489/mo after 68% keep · $12,763 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.6 mo [1.4-4.3], measured ONLY among the 54% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,922 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $59 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.95/sh now → $1.38 mid-life (likely $1.27–$2.27) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.31/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.07/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 440 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $50 (overshoots $1.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48.50 is $18 below CC-SS $66.67: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.31 collected) or spot ≥ $48.83 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.48 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.67, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-51,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$52,327 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $48.50): -$32,150 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $65): -$332 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-31,305 (+$19,845 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,145 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-29,160, the opportunity cost of earning $4,185/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $62.73 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$25,056, position total $-32,839 (+$18,311 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 19 × $47.50 | 2 Oct | 4d | 8.8% | 83%hist 86% | 34%hist 33% | +10pp | $836 | $6,270 | — | $35,589 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $47.50 8.8% OTM over spot $43.66 2 Oct 2026 (4d, $0.46 mid) = $836 credit for the 4d cycle → $6,270/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47.50) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $47.96) 86% EV / mo +$2,646 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 57% whole by 9mo vs 48% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,925/mo median; plan ~$1,989/mo after 68% keep · $16,015 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.1 mo [1.1-3.9], measured ONLY among the 57% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,696 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $58 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.88/sh now → $1.33 mid-life (likely $1.33–$2.25) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.44/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.89/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 654 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $49 (overshoots $1.15). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47.50 is $19 below CC-SS $66.67: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.44 collected) or spot ≥ $47.96 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.48 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.67, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-51,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$52,327 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $47.50): -$35,589 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $65): -$166 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-34,578 (+$16,572 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,145 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-32,433, the opportunity cost of earning $6,270/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $62.73 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$28,101, position total $-35,885 (+$15,265 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 19 × $45.50 | 2 Oct | 4d | 4.2% | 69%hist 64% | 63%hist 59% | +15pp | $1,691 | $12,682 | +$6,412 | $38,534 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $45.50 4.2% OTM over spot $43.66 2 Oct 2026 (4d, $0.90 mid) = $1,691 credit for the 4d cycle → $12,682/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45.50) 69% Breach risk 31% POP (stays ≤ $46.40) 76% EV / mo +$3,688 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +15pp 61% whole by 9mo vs 46% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~6.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,339/mo median; plan ~$2,951/mo after 68% keep · $22,963 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.5 mo [1.3-4.6], measured ONLY among the 61% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 43% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$672 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $58 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.76/sh now → $1.24 mid-life (likely $1.53–$2.47) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.89/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.35/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,302 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $47 (overshoots $1.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45.50 is $21 below CC-SS $66.67: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.22/sh (~25% of the $0.89 collected) or spot ≥ $46.40 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.48 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.67, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-51,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$52,327 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $45.50): -$38,534 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $65): -$166 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-37,523 (+$13,627 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,145 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-35,378, the opportunity cost of earning $12,682/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $62.73 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$31,046, position total $-38,830 (+$12,320 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 13 × $60 | 9 Oct | 11d | 37.4% | 98%hist 96% | 4%hist 3% | +1pp | $104 | $284 | -$5,935 | $8,568 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 13 × $60 37.4% OTM over spot $43.66 9 Oct 2026 (11d, $0.08 mid) = $104 credit for the 11d cycle → $284/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $60) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $60.09) 98% EV / mo +$200 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 50% whole by 9mo vs 49% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-39/mo median; plan ~$-27/mo after 68% keep · $-196 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.4 mo [1.2-4.4], measured ONLY among the 50% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,680 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $66 @ 77% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 13 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.11/sh now → $2.91 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.83/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $60 is $7 below CC-SS $66.67: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $60.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $60)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.48 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.67, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-51,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$52,327 − CC assignment net of premium (13 × $60): -$8,568 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (7 × $65): -$1,163 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,554 (+$42,596 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,145 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,409, the opportunity cost of earning $284/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $62.73 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,445, position total $-11,223 (+$39,927 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $52 | 9 Oct | 11d | 19.1% | 90%hist 96% | 21%hist 25% | +4pp | $800 | $2,182 | -$4,036 | $28,542 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $52 19.1% OTM over spot $43.66 9 Oct 2026 (11d, $0.43 mid) = $800 credit for the 11d cycle → $2,182/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $52) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $52.42) 91% EV / mo +$1,084 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 47% whole by 9mo vs 43% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,059/mo median; plan ~$720/mo after 68% keep · $6,621 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.5 mo [1.4-4.7], measured ONLY among the 47% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,764 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $58 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.23/sh now → $2.28 mid-life (likely $1.80–$3.08) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.88/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 389 simulated challenges: the $52 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 11, at $53 (overshoots $1.15). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $52 is $15 below CC-SS $66.67: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.40 collected) or spot ≥ $52.42 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $52)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.48 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.67, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-51,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$52,327 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $52): -$28,542 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,365 (+$23,785 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,145 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,220, the opportunity cost of earning $2,182/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $62.73 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$20,660, position total $-28,445 (+$22,705 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 18 × $48.50 | 9 Oct | 11d | 11.1% | 80%hist 82% | 42%hist 41% | +7pp | $1,494 | $4,075 | -$2,144 | $31,214 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $48.50 11.1% OTM over spot $43.66 9 Oct 2026 (11d, $0.87 mid) = $1,494 credit for the 11d cycle → $4,075/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48.50) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $49.37) 83% EV / mo +$1,365 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 51% whole by 9mo vs 44% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,658/mo median; plan ~$1,128/mo after 68% keep · $10,626 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.7 mo [1.6-4.9], measured ONLY among the 51% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,161 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $57 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.87/sh now → $2.03 mid-life (likely $2.01–$3.11) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.83/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.20/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,007 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $50 (overshoots $1.17). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48.50 is $18 below CC-SS $66.67: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.83 collected) or spot ≥ $49.37 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.48 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.67, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-51,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$52,327 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $48.50): -$31,214 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $65): -$332 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,369 (+$20,781 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,145 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-28,224, the opportunity cost of earning $4,075/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $62.73 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$24,120, position total $-31,903 (+$19,247 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 20 × $47 | 9 Oct | 11d | 7.7% | 73%hist 82% | 57%hist 46% | +7pp | $2,280 | $6,218 | — | $37,062 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $47 7.7% OTM over spot $43.66 9 Oct 2026 (11d, $1.19 mid) = $2,280 credit for the 11d cycle → $6,218/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $48.19) 79% EV / mo +$1,640 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 53% whole by 9mo vs 46% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,289/mo median; plan ~$1,557/mo after 68% keep · $14,415 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.9 mo [1.5-4.6], measured ONLY among the 53% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 44% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,573 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $56 @ 86% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.72/sh now → $1.93 mid-life (likely $2.18–$3.15) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.79/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,318 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $48 (overshoots $1.14). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47 is $20 below CC-SS $66.67: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.14 collected) or spot ≥ $48.19 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.48 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.67, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-51,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$52,327 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $47): -$37,062 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-35,885 (+$15,265 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,145 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-33,740, the opportunity cost of earning $6,218/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $62.73 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$29,180, position total $-36,965 (+$14,185 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 19 × $43.50 | 9 Oct | 11d | -0.4% | 52%hist 68% | 100%hist 90% | · | $4,598 | $12,540 | +$6,322 | $39,427 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $43.50 0.4% ITM over spot $43.66 9 Oct 2026 (11d, $2.46 mid) = $4,598 credit for the 11d cycle → $12,540/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $43.50) 52% Breach risk 48% POP (stays ≤ $45.95) 67% EV / mo +$1,863 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$1,377 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $54 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.40/sh now → $1.70 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.42/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.72/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $43.50 is $23 below CC-SS $66.67: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.60/sh (~25% of the $2.42 collected) or spot ≥ $45.95 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $44)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.48 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.67, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-51,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$52,327 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $43.50): -$39,427 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $65): -$166 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-38,416 (+$12,734 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,145 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-36,271, the opportunity cost of earning $12,540/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $62.73 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$31,939, position total $-39,723 (+$11,427 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 30 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.137 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$52,327 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,145
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $47.50 | 4d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.44 | 19/20 | $6,270 | $6,001 | 83% | 86% | +$2,646 | -$35,589 | 259.8% | $-34,578 (vs do-nothing $-32,433) |
| $47 | 4d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.53 | 16/20 | $6,360 | $6,099 | 80% | 84% | +$2,499 | -$30,626 | 223.5% | $-30,113 (vs do-nothing $-27,968) |
| $46.50 | 4d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.63 | 14/20 | $6,615 | $6,360 | 77% | 81% | +$2,360 | -$27,358 | 199.7% | $-27,177 (vs do-nothing $-25,032) |
| $46 | 4d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.74 | 12/20 | $6,660 | $6,410 | 73% | 79% | +$2,092 | -$23,917 | 174.6% | $-24,069 (vs do-nothing $-21,924) |
| $47 | 11d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.14 | 20/20 | $6,218 | $5,946 | 73% | 79% | +$1,640 | -$37,062 | 270.5% | $-35,885 (vs do-nothing $-33,740) |
| $46.50 | 11d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.30 | 18/20 | $6,382 | $6,116 | 70% | 77% | +$1,661 | -$33,968 | 247.9% | $-33,123 (vs do-nothing $-30,978) |
| $45.50 | 4d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.89 | 10/20 | $6,675 | $6,431 | 69% | 76% | +$1,941 | -$20,281 | 148.0% | $-20,765 (vs do-nothing $-18,620) |
| $46.50 | 18d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.86 | 20/20 | $6,200 | $5,928 | 68% | 76% | +$1,454 | -$36,622 | 267.3% | $-35,445 (vs do-nothing $-33,300) |
| $46 | 11d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.42 | 16/20 | $6,196 | $5,936 | 67% | 75% | +$1,398 | -$30,802 | 224.8% | $-30,289 (vs do-nothing $-28,144) |
| $46 | 18d | 16 Oct 2026 | $2.03 | 19/20 | $6,428 | $6,159 | 65% | 74% | +$1,433 | -$35,418 | 258.5% | $-34,407 (vs do-nothing $-32,262) |
| $45 | 4d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.05 | 8/20 | $6,300 | $6,061 | 65% | 74% | +$1,627 | -$16,497 | 120.4% | $-17,313 (vs do-nothing $-15,168) |
| $45.50 | 11d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.59 | 15/20 | $6,505 | $6,246 | 65% | 74% | +$1,375 | -$29,372 | 214.4% | $-29,025 (vs do-nothing $-26,880) |
| $45.50 | 18d | 16 Oct 2026 | $2.19 | 17/20 | $6,205 | $5,941 | 63% | 73% | +$1,259 | -$32,268 | 235.5% | $-31,589 (vs do-nothing $-29,444) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $45 | 11d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.79 | 13/20 | $6,346 | $6,094 | 61% | 72% | +$1,289 | -$25,845 | 188.7% | $-25,831 (vs do-nothing $-23,686) |
| $45 | 18d | 16 Oct 2026 | $2.39 | 16/20 | $6,373 | $6,113 | 60% | 72% | +$1,231 | -$30,850 | 225.2% | $-30,337 (vs do-nothing $-28,192) |
| $44.50 | 4d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.21 | 7/20 | $6,352 | $6,116 | 60% | 71% | +$1,348 | -$14,673 | 107.1% | $-15,655 (vs do-nothing $-13,510) |
| $45 | 25d | 23 Oct 2026 | $2.87 | 18/20 | $6,199 | $5,933 | 60% | 72% | +$1,044 | -$33,842 | 247.0% | $-32,997 (vs do-nothing $-30,852) |
| $44.50 | 11d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.94 | 12/20 | $6,349 | $6,099 | 58% | 70% | +$1,055 | -$24,277 | 177.2% | $-24,429 (vs do-nothing $-22,284) |
| $44.50 | 18d | 16 Oct 2026 | $2.58 | 15/20 | $6,450 | $6,192 | 58% | 70% | +$1,133 | -$29,387 | 214.5% | $-29,040 (vs do-nothing $-26,895) |
| $44 | 25d | 23 Oct 2026 | $3.25 | 16/20 | $6,240 | $5,979 | 56% | 70% | +$877 | -$31,074 | 226.8% | $-30,561 (vs do-nothing $-28,416) |
| $44 | 4d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.42 | 6/20 | $6,390 | $6,156 | 55% | 69% | +$1,188 | -$12,751 | 93.1% | $-13,899 (vs do-nothing $-11,754) |
| $44 | 18d | 16 Oct 2026 | $2.80 | 14/20 | $6,533 | $6,278 | 55% | 69% | +$1,070 | -$27,820 | 203.1% | $-27,639 (vs do-nothing $-25,494) |
| $44 | 11d | 9 Oct 2026 | $2.16 | 11/20 | $6,480 | $6,233 | 55% | 69% | +$994 | -$22,562 | 164.7% | $-22,880 (vs do-nothing $-20,735) |
| $43.50 | 18d | 16 Oct 2026 | $3.00 | 13/20 | $6,500 | $6,247 | 52% | 68% | +$926 | -$26,222 | 191.4% | $-26,208 (vs do-nothing $-24,063) |
| $43.50 | 11d | 9 Oct 2026 | $2.42 | 10/20 | $6,600 | $6,356 | 52% | 67% | +$981 | -$20,751 | 151.5% | $-21,235 (vs do-nothing $-19,090) |
| $43 | 25d | 23 Oct 2026 | $3.75 | 14/20 | $6,300 | $6,045 | 51% | 68% | +$831 | -$27,890 | 203.6% | $-27,709 (vs do-nothing $-25,564) |
| $43.50 | 4d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.65 | 5/20 | $6,188 | $5,957 | 50% | 67% | +$980 | -$10,761 | 78.5% | $-12,075 (vs do-nothing $-9,930) |
| $43 | 18d | 16 Oct 2026 | $3.25 | 12/20 | $6,500 | $6,250 | 50% | 67% | +$858 | -$24,505 | 178.9% | $-24,657 (vs do-nothing $-22,512) |
| $43 | 11d | 9 Oct 2026 | $2.66 | 9/20 | $6,529 | $6,287 | 48% | 66% | +$851 | -$18,910 | 138.0% | $-19,560 (vs do-nothing $-17,415) |
| $43 | 4d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.90 | 5/20 | $7,125 | $6,894 | 45% | 65% | +$928 | -$10,886 | 79.5% | $-12,200 (vs do-nothing $-10,055) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.