20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $63.43 | CC-SS: $66.49 (banked floor $64.66) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $107,700 | (ND $6.85 + SW $47) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $9,565/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $288/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-54,290 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 2 Oct 2026 · 3d | 20 × $46.50 | 89% | $5,000 | $4,309 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 9 Oct 2026 · 10d | 19 × $46 | 77% | $4,788 | $1,288 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 10 × $52 | 2 Oct | 3d | 23.5% | 99%hist 96% | 3%hist 3% | +0pp | $30 | $300 | -$4,700 | $14,462 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $52 23.5% OTM over spot $42.09 2 Oct 2026 (3d, $0.04 mid) = $30 credit for the 3d cycle → $300/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $52) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $52.03) 99% EV / mo +$233 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 49% whole by 9mo vs 49% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $13/mo median; plan ~$9/mo after 68% keep · $36 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.1 mo [1.1-4.3], measured ONLY among the 49% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,423 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $62 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.05/sh now → $1.45 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.03/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $52 is $14 below CC-SS $66.49: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.03 collected) or spot ≥ $52.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $52)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.79 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.49, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-54,290 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$55,442 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $52): -$14,462 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (10 × $65): -$1,472 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,783 (+$39,507 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,793 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,990, the opportunity cost of earning $300/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $62.70 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,670, position total $-18,114 (+$36,176 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 17 × $47 | 2 Oct | 3d | 11.7% | 91%hist 96% | 18%hist 14% | +4pp | $323 | $3,230 | -$1,770 | $32,814 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $47 11.7% OTM over spot $42.09 2 Oct 2026 (3d, $0.21 mid) = $323 credit for the 3d cycle → $3,230/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $47.21) 92% EV / mo +$1,715 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 50% whole by 9mo vs 45% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,801/mo median; plan ~$1,224/mo after 68% keep · $10,191 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.1 mo [1.2-4.2], measured ONLY among the 50% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,772 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $57 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.74/sh now → $1.23 mid-life (likely $1.10–$2.09) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.04/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 233 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 3, at $48 (overshoots $1.14). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47 is $19 below CC-SS $66.49: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.19 collected) or spot ≥ $47.21 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.79 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.49, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-54,290 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$55,442 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $47): -$32,814 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $65): -$442 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-32,104 (+$22,186 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,793 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-30,311, the opportunity cost of earning $3,230/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $62.70 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$26,367, position total $-33,825 (+$20,465 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $47 | 2 Oct | 3d | 11.7% | 91%hist 96% | 18%hist 14% | +5pp | $380 | $3,800 | -$1,200 | $38,604 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $47 11.7% OTM over spot $42.09 2 Oct 2026 (3d, $0.21 mid) = $380 credit for the 3d cycle → $3,800/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $47.21) 92% EV / mo +$2,018 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 47% whole by 9mo vs 42% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,139/mo median; plan ~$1,454/mo after 68% keep · $12,093 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.4 mo [1.2-4.0], measured ONLY among the 47% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,085 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $57 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.74/sh now → $1.23 mid-life (likely $1.07–$2.04) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.04/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 241 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 3, at $48 (overshoots $1.11). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47 is $19 below CC-SS $66.49: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.19 collected) or spot ≥ $47.21 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.79 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.49, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-54,290 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$55,442 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $47): -$38,604 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-37,453 (+$16,837 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,793 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-35,660, the opportunity cost of earning $3,800/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $62.70 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$31,020, position total $-38,484 (+$15,806 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 20 × $46.50 | 2 Oct | 3d | 10.5% | 89%hist 86% | 22%hist 25% | +12pp | $500 | $5,000 | — | $39,484 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $46.50 10.5% OTM over spot $42.09 2 Oct 2026 (3d, $0.27 mid) = $500 credit for the 3d cycle → $5,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $46.50) 89% Breach risk 11% POP (stays ≤ $46.77) 90% EV / mo +$2,655 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 57% whole by 9mo vs 46% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,802/mo median; plan ~$1,905/mo after 68% keep · $15,260 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.5 mo [1.4-5.1], measured ONLY among the 57% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,923 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $56 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.71/sh now → $1.21 mid-life (likely $1.20–$2.06) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.96/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 334 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $48 (overshoots $1.11). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $46.50 is $20 below CC-SS $66.49: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $46.77 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.79 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.49, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-54,290 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$55,442 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $46.50): -$39,484 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-38,333 (+$15,957 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,793 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-36,540, the opportunity cost of earning $5,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $62.70 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$31,900, position total $-39,364 (+$14,926 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 20 × $45 | 2 Oct | 3d | 6.9% | 81%hist 86% | 40%hist 33% | +12pp | $960 | $9,600 | +$4,600 | $42,024 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $45 6.9% OTM over spot $42.09 2 Oct 2026 (3d, $0.48 mid) = $960 credit for the 3d cycle → $9,600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $45.48) 84% EV / mo +$4,284 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 57% whole by 9mo vs 44% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,350/mo median; plan ~$2,958/mo after 68% keep · $24,239 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.3 mo [1.5-4.5], measured ONLY among the 57% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,338 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $57 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.62/sh now → $1.15 mid-life (likely $1.17–$2.11) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.48/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.67/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 684 simulated challenges: the $45 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $46 (overshoots $1.06). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45 is $21 below CC-SS $66.49: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.48 collected) or spot ≥ $45.48 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $45)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.79 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.49, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-54,290 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$55,442 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $45): -$42,024 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-40,873 (+$13,417 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,793 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-39,080, the opportunity cost of earning $9,600/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $62.70 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$34,440, position total $-41,904 (+$12,386 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 20 × $60 | 9 Oct | 10d | 42.6% | 98%hist 96% | 3%hist 3% | +1pp | $100 | $300 | -$4,488 | $12,884 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $60 42.6% OTM over spot $42.09 9 Oct 2026 (10d, $0.06 mid) = $100 credit for the 10d cycle → $300/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $60) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $60.05) 98% EV / mo +$183 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 46% whole by 9mo vs 45% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-60/mo median; plan ~$-41/mo after 68% keep · $-383 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.1 mo [1.1-4.1], measured ONLY among the 46% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,715 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $66 @ 77% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.11/sh now → $2.91 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.86/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $60 is $6 below CC-SS $66.49: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $60.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $60)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.79 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.49, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-54,290 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$55,442 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $60): -$12,884 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,733 (+$42,557 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,793 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,940, the opportunity cost of earning $300/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $62.70 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,300, position total $-12,764 (+$41,526 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $50 | 9 Oct | 10d | 18.8% | 91%hist 96% | 20%hist 14% | +4pp | $640 | $1,920 | -$2,868 | $32,344 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $50 18.8% OTM over spot $42.09 9 Oct 2026 (10d, $0.33 mid) = $640 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,920/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $50.34) 91% EV / mo +$895 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 45% whole by 9mo vs 41% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $920/mo median; plan ~$625/mo after 68% keep · $5,759 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.8 mo [1.3-4.6], measured ONLY among the 45% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,605 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $56 @ 79% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.00/sh now → $2.12 mid-life (likely $1.65–$2.96) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.32/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.80/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 321 simulated challenges: the $50 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $51 (overshoots $1.12). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $50 is $16 below CC-SS $66.49: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.32 collected) or spot ≥ $50.34 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $50)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.79 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.49, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-54,290 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$55,442 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $50): -$32,344 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-31,193 (+$23,097 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,793 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-29,400, the opportunity cost of earning $1,920/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $62.70 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$24,760, position total $-32,224 (+$22,066 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 19 × $47.50 | 9 Oct | 10d | 12.9% | 84%hist 86% | 34%hist 33% | +4pp | $1,102 | $3,306 | -$1,482 | $34,983 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $47.50 12.9% OTM over spot $42.09 9 Oct 2026 (10d, $0.62 mid) = $1,102 credit for the 10d cycle → $3,306/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47.50) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $48.12) 86% EV / mo +$1,263 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 50% whole by 9mo vs 46% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,412/mo median; plan ~$960/mo after 68% keep · $9,176 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.8 mo [1.5-4.8], measured ONLY among the 50% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,594 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $53 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.75/sh now → $1.95 mid-life (likely $1.81–$2.79) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.58/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.37/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 683 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $48 (overshoots $0.98). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47.50 is $19 below CC-SS $66.49: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.58 collected) or spot ≥ $48.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.79 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.49, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-54,290 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$55,442 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $47.50): -$34,983 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $65): -$147 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-33,979 (+$20,311 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,793 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-32,186, the opportunity cost of earning $3,306/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $62.70 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$27,778, position total $-35,240 (+$19,050 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 19 × $46 | 9 Oct | 10d | 9.3% | 77%hist 82% | 47%hist 41% | +7pp | $1,596 | $4,788 | — | $37,339 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $46 9.3% OTM over spot $42.09 9 Oct 2026 (10d, $0.89 mid) = $1,596 credit for the 10d cycle → $4,788/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $46) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $46.88) 82% EV / mo +$1,554 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 49% whole by 9mo vs 42% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,887/mo median; plan ~$1,283/mo after 68% keep · $12,789 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.2 mo [2.0-4.7], measured ONLY among the 49% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,904 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $54 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.60/sh now → $1.84 mid-life (likely $1.89–$2.90) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.84/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.00/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,007 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $47 (overshoots $1.05). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $46 is $20 below CC-SS $66.49: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.84 collected) or spot ≥ $46.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.79 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.49, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-54,290 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$55,442 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $46): -$37,339 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $65): -$147 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-36,335 (+$17,955 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,793 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-34,542, the opportunity cost of earning $4,788/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $62.70 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$30,134, position total $-37,596 (+$16,694 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 19 × $43 | 9 Oct | 10d | 2.2% | 59%hist 68% | 86%hist 80% | +10pp | $3,325 | $9,975 | +$5,187 | $41,310 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $43 2.2% OTM over spot $42.09 9 Oct 2026 (10d, $1.79 mid) = $3,325 credit for the 10d cycle → $9,975/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $43) 59% Breach risk 41% POP (stays ≤ $44.80) 71% EV / mo +$2,046 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 48% whole by 9mo vs 39% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~7.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,745/mo median; plan ~$1,867/mo after 68% keep · $18,976 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.0 mo [1.9-5.1], measured ONLY among the 48% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 69% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$200 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $54 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.32/sh now → $1.64 mid-life (likely $2.22–$3.02) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.11/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,070 simulated challenges: the $43 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $44 (overshoots $1.03). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $43 is $23 below CC-SS $66.49: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.44/sh (~25% of the $1.75 collected) or spot ≥ $44.80 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $43)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.79 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.49, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-54,290 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$55,442 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $43): -$41,310 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $65): -$147 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-40,306 (+$13,984 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,793 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-38,513, the opportunity cost of earning $9,975/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $62.70 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$34,105, position total $-41,567 (+$12,723 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 35 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.136 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$55,442 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,793
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $46.50 | 3d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.25 | 20/20 | $5,000 | $4,712 | 89% | 90% | +$2,655 | -$39,484 | 288.2% | $-38,333 (vs do-nothing $-36,540) |
| $46 | 3d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.30 | 16/20 | $4,800 | $4,536 | 87% | 88% | +$2,332 | -$32,308 | 235.8% | $-31,745 (vs do-nothing $-29,952) |
| $45.50 | 3d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.38 | 13/20 | $4,940 | $4,694 | 84% | 86% | +$2,300 | -$26,796 | 195.6% | $-26,675 (vs do-nothing $-24,882) |
| $45 | 3d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.48 | 10/20 | $4,800 | $4,572 | 81% | 84% | +$2,142 | -$21,012 | 153.4% | $-21,333 (vs do-nothing $-19,540) |
| $46 | 10d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.84 | 19/20 | $4,788 | $4,506 | 77% | 82% | +$1,554 | -$37,339 | 272.5% | $-36,335 (vs do-nothing $-34,542) |
| $44.50 | 3d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.58 | 9/20 | $5,220 | $4,998 | 77% | 82% | +$2,108 | -$19,271 | 140.7% | $-19,739 (vs do-nothing $-17,946) |
| $45.50 | 10d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.95 | 17/20 | $4,845 | $4,575 | 75% | 80% | +$1,477 | -$34,072 | 248.7% | $-33,362 (vs do-nothing $-31,569) |
| $46 | 17d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.38 | 20/20 | $4,871 | $4,582 | 73% | 79% | +$1,363 | -$38,224 | 279.0% | $-37,073 (vs do-nothing $-35,280) |
| $44 | 3d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.67 | 8/20 | $5,360 | $5,144 | 73% | 79% | +$1,787 | -$17,458 | 127.4% | $-18,073 (vs do-nothing $-16,280) |
| $45 | 10d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.07 | 15/20 | $4,815 | $4,557 | 72% | 78% | +$1,270 | -$30,633 | 223.6% | $-30,218 (vs do-nothing $-28,425) |
| $45.50 | 17d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.50 | 19/20 | $5,029 | $4,747 | 71% | 78% | +$1,317 | -$37,035 | 270.3% | $-36,031 (vs do-nothing $-34,238) |
| $44.50 | 10d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.21 | 14/20 | $5,082 | $4,830 | 69% | 77% | +$1,340 | -$29,095 | 212.4% | $-28,827 (vs do-nothing $-27,034) |
| $45 | 17d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.66 | 17/20 | $4,980 | $4,710 | 69% | 76% | +$1,277 | -$33,715 | 246.1% | $-33,005 (vs do-nothing $-31,212) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $43.50 | 3d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.81 | 6/20 | $4,860 | $4,656 | 68% | 76% | +$1,426 | -$13,309 | 97.1% | $-14,219 (vs do-nothing $-12,426) |
| $45 | 24d | 23 Oct 2026 | $2.08 | 19/20 | $4,940 | $4,658 | 67% | 75% | +$1,015 | -$36,883 | 269.2% | $-35,879 (vs do-nothing $-34,086) |
| $44.50 | 17d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.82 | 15/20 | $4,818 | $4,559 | 66% | 75% | +$1,176 | -$30,258 | 220.9% | $-29,843 (vs do-nothing $-28,050) |
| $44 | 10d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.38 | 12/20 | $4,968 | $4,728 | 66% | 75% | +$1,254 | -$25,335 | 184.9% | $-25,361 (vs do-nothing $-23,568) |
| $44 | 17d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.99 | 14/20 | $4,916 | $4,664 | 64% | 74% | +$1,118 | -$28,703 | 209.5% | $-28,435 (vs do-nothing $-26,642) |
| $43.50 | 10d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.55 | 11/20 | $5,115 | $4,881 | 63% | 73% | +$1,182 | -$23,586 | 172.2% | $-23,760 (vs do-nothing $-21,967) |
| $44 | 24d | 23 Oct 2026 | $2.44 | 16/20 | $4,880 | $4,616 | 63% | 73% | +$941 | -$32,084 | 234.2% | $-31,521 (vs do-nothing $-29,728) |
| $43 | 3d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.00 | 5/20 | $5,000 | $4,802 | 62% | 73% | +$1,366 | -$11,246 | 82.1% | $-12,303 (vs do-nothing $-10,510) |
| $43.50 | 17d | 16 Oct 2026 | $2.16 | 13/20 | $4,955 | $4,709 | 61% | 72% | +$1,039 | -$27,082 | 197.7% | $-26,961 (vs do-nothing $-25,168) |
| $43 | 10d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.75 | 10/20 | $5,250 | $5,022 | 59% | 71% | +$1,077 | -$21,742 | 158.7% | $-22,063 (vs do-nothing $-20,270) |
| $43 | 17d | 16 Oct 2026 | $2.37 | 12/20 | $5,019 | $4,778 | 58% | 71% | +$1,004 | -$25,347 | 185.0% | $-25,373 (vs do-nothing $-23,580) |
| $43 | 24d | 23 Oct 2026 | $2.84 | 14/20 | $4,970 | $4,718 | 58% | 71% | +$877 | -$28,913 | 211.0% | $-28,645 (vs do-nothing $-26,852) |
| $42.50 | 3d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.21 | 4/20 | $4,840 | $4,648 | 57% | 70% | +$1,184 | -$9,113 | 66.5% | $-10,317 (vs do-nothing $-8,524) |
| $42.50 | 17d | 16 Oct 2026 | $2.59 | 11/20 | $5,028 | $4,793 | 56% | 70% | +$951 | -$23,542 | 171.8% | $-23,716 (vs do-nothing $-21,923) |
| $42.50 | 10d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.97 | 9/20 | $5,319 | $5,097 | 56% | 70% | +$1,065 | -$19,820 | 144.7% | $-20,288 (vs do-nothing $-18,495) |
| $42 | 24d | 23 Oct 2026 | $3.20 | 12/20 | $4,800 | $4,560 | 53% | 69% | +$652 | -$25,551 | 186.5% | $-25,577 (vs do-nothing $-23,784) |
| $42 | 17d | 16 Oct 2026 | $2.80 | 10/20 | $4,941 | $4,713 | 53% | 68% | +$822 | -$21,692 | 158.3% | $-22,013 (vs do-nothing $-20,220) |
| $42 | 10d | 9 Oct 2026 | $2.21 | 8/20 | $5,304 | $5,088 | 52% | 68% | +$980 | -$17,826 | 130.1% | $-18,441 (vs do-nothing $-16,648) |
| $42 | 3d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.44 | 4/20 | $5,760 | $5,568 | 50% | 68% | +$1,212 | -$9,221 | 67.3% | $-10,425 (vs do-nothing $-8,632) |
| $41.50 | 17d | 16 Oct 2026 | $3.00 | 10/20 | $5,294 | $5,066 | 50% | 67% | +$726 | -$21,992 | 160.5% | $-22,313 (vs do-nothing $-20,520) |
| $41.50 | 10d | 9 Oct 2026 | $2.44 | 7/20 | $5,124 | $4,914 | 48% | 66% | +$768 | -$15,787 | 115.2% | $-16,549 (vs do-nothing $-14,756) |
| $41.50 | 3d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.71 | 3/20 | $5,130 | $4,944 | 44% | 65% | +$936 | -$6,985 | 51.0% | $-8,336 (vs do-nothing $-6,543) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.