20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $63.43 | CC-SS: $66.67 (banked floor $64.84) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $107,700 | (ND $6.85 + SW $47) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $9,038/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $271/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-56,750 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 2 Oct 2026 · 2d | 18 × $45 | 91% | $4,590 | $4,234 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 9 Oct 2026 · 9d | 20 × $45 | 78% | $4,733 | $1,494 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 19 × $55 | 2 Oct | 2d | 33.4% | 99+%hist 96% | 1%hist 3% | +0pp | $19 | $285 | -$4,305 | $22,161 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $55 33.4% OTM over spot $41.23 2 Oct 2026 (2d, $0.01 mid) = $19 credit for the 2d cycle → $285/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $55) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays ≤ $55.02) 99+% EV / mo +$252 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 53% whole by 9mo vs 52% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-28/mo median; plan ~$-19/mo after 68% keep · $-109 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.7-3.2], measured ONLY among the 53% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,371 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $69 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.78/sh now → $1.26 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.25/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $55 is $12 below CC-SS $66.67: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.00/sh (~25% of the $0.01 collected) or spot ≥ $55.02 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $55)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.67, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-56,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$58,063 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $55): -$22,161 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $65): -$162 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,011 (+$35,739 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,935 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,076, the opportunity cost of earning $285/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $62.69 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$14,592, position total $-22,365 (+$34,385 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 19 × $45.50 | 2 Oct | 2d | 10.4% | 93%hist 96% | 14%hist 14% | +4pp | $209 | $3,135 | -$1,455 | $40,021 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $45.50 10.4% OTM over spot $41.23 2 Oct 2026 (2d, $0.13 mid) = $209 credit for the 2d cycle → $3,135/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45.50) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $45.63) 94% EV / mo +$1,820 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 42% whole by 9mo vs 38% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,884/mo median; plan ~$1,281/mo after 68% keep · $11,862 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.8 mo [1.5-5.3], measured ONLY among the 42% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,545 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $55 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.31/sh now → $0.92 mid-life (likely $0.97–$1.74) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.81/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 180 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $47 (overshoots $1.12). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45.50 is $21 below CC-SS $66.67: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $45.63 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.67, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-56,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$58,063 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $45.50): -$40,021 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $65): -$162 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-38,871 (+$17,879 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,935 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-36,936, the opportunity cost of earning $3,135/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $62.69 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$32,452, position total $-40,225 (+$16,525 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 18 × $45 | 2 Oct | 2d | 9.1% | 91%hist 96% | 19%hist 14% | +8pp | $306 | $4,590 | — | $38,707 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $45 9.1% OTM over spot $41.23 2 Oct 2026 (2d, $0.17 mid) = $306 credit for the 2d cycle → $4,590/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $45.17) 92% EV / mo +$2,754 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 50% whole by 9mo vs 42% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,835/mo median; plan ~$1,928/mo after 68% keep · $16,695 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.8 mo [1.5-5.0], measured ONLY among the 50% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,326 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $56 @ 88% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.28/sh now → $0.91 mid-life (likely $0.91–$1.72) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.74/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 233 simulated challenges: the $45 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $46 (overshoots $0.99). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45 is $22 below CC-SS $66.67: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $45.17 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $45)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.67, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-56,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$58,063 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $45): -$38,707 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $65): -$325 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-37,719 (+$19,031 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,935 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-35,784, the opportunity cost of earning $4,590/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $62.69 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$31,536, position total $-39,304 (+$17,446 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $45 | 2 Oct | 2d | 9.1% | 91%hist 96% | 19%hist 14% | +9pp | $340 | $5,100 | +$510 | $43,008 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $45 9.1% OTM over spot $41.23 2 Oct 2026 (2d, $0.17 mid) = $340 credit for the 2d cycle → $5,100/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $45.17) 92% EV / mo +$3,060 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 52% whole by 9mo vs 43% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,116/mo median; plan ~$2,119/mo after 68% keep · $18,678 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.8 mo [1.5-5.1], measured ONLY among the 52% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,474 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $56 @ 88% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.28/sh now → $0.91 mid-life (likely $0.92–$1.76) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.74/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 267 simulated challenges: the $45 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $46 (overshoots $1.03). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45 is $22 below CC-SS $66.67: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $45.17 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $45)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.67, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-56,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$58,063 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $45): -$43,008 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-41,695 (+$15,055 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,935 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-39,760, the opportunity cost of earning $5,100/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $62.69 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$35,040, position total $-42,818 (+$13,932 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 17 × $43.50 | 2 Oct | 2d | 5.5% | 80%hist 86% | 40%hist 41% | +15pp | $612 | $9,180 | +$4,590 | $38,784 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $43.50 5.5% OTM over spot $41.23 2 Oct 2026 (2d, $0.39 mid) = $612 credit for the 2d cycle → $9,180/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $43.50) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $43.89) 84% EV / mo +$3,851 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +15pp 56% whole by 9mo vs 41% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~7.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,443/mo median; plan ~$3,021/mo after 68% keep · $24,905 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.6 mo [1.5-4.5], measured ONLY among the 56% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$848 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $55 @ 90% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.21/sh now → $0.86 mid-life (likely $0.97–$1.85) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.36/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.50/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 647 simulated challenges: the $44 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $45 (overshoots $1.05). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $43.50 is $23 below CC-SS $66.67: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.36 collected) or spot ≥ $43.89 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $44)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.67, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-56,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$58,063 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $43.50): -$38,784 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $65): -$487 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-37,958 (+$18,792 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,935 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-36,023, the opportunity cost of earning $9,180/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $62.69 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$32,011, position total $-39,774 (+$16,976 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 17 × $56 | 9 Oct | 9d | 35.8% | 98%hist 96% | 3%hist 3% | +0pp | $85 | $283 | -$4,450 | $18,061 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $56 35.8% OTM over spot $41.23 9 Oct 2026 (9d, $0.07 mid) = $85 credit for the 9d cycle → $283/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $56) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $56.06) 98% EV / mo +$202 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 43% whole by 9mo vs 43% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-19/mo median; plan ~$-13/mo after 68% keep · $-78 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.6 mo [1.3-4.4], measured ONLY among the 43% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,941 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $63 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.35/sh now → $2.37 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.32/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $56 is $11 below CC-SS $66.67: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $56.06 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $56)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.67, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-56,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$58,063 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $56): -$18,061 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $65): -$487 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,235 (+$39,515 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,935 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,300, the opportunity cost of earning $283/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $62.69 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,288, position total $-19,051 (+$37,699 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $48.50 | 9 Oct | 9d | 17.6% | 91%hist 96% | 19%hist 14% | +4pp | $520 | $1,733 | -$3,000 | $35,828 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $48.50 17.6% OTM over spot $41.23 9 Oct 2026 (9d, $0.29 mid) = $520 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,733/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $48.79) 92% EV / mo +$781 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 40% whole by 9mo vs 37% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $813/mo median; plan ~$553/mo after 68% keep · $5,693 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.8 mo [1.7-4.9], measured ONLY among the 40% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,175 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $54 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.61/sh now → $1.85 mid-life (likely $1.51–$2.47) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.59/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 343 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $50 (overshoots $1.07). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48.50 is $18 below CC-SS $66.67: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.26 collected) or spot ≥ $48.79 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.67, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-56,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$58,063 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $48.50): -$35,828 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-34,515 (+$22,235 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,935 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-32,580, the opportunity cost of earning $1,733/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $62.69 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$27,860, position total $-35,638 (+$21,112 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 19 × $46.50 | 9 Oct | 9d | 12.8% | 85%hist 86% | 31%hist 33% | +4pp | $912 | $3,040 | -$1,693 | $37,418 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $46.50 12.8% OTM over spot $41.23 9 Oct 2026 (9d, $0.51 mid) = $912 credit for the 9d cycle → $3,040/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $46.50) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $47.01) 87% EV / mo +$1,220 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 43% whole by 9mo vs 38% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,342/mo median; plan ~$913/mo after 68% keep · $9,485 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.1 mo [1.8-5.1], measured ONLY among the 43% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 20% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,355 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $53 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.43/sh now → $1.72 mid-life (likely $1.54–$2.57) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.48/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.24/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 608 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $48 (overshoots $1.09). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $46.50 is $20 below CC-SS $66.67: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.48 collected) or spot ≥ $47.01 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.67, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-56,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$58,063 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $46.50): -$37,418 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $65): -$162 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-36,268 (+$20,482 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,935 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-34,333, the opportunity cost of earning $3,040/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $62.69 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$29,849, position total $-37,622 (+$19,128 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 20 × $45 | 9 Oct | 9d | 9.1% | 78%hist 82% | 45%hist 41% | +6pp | $1,420 | $4,733 | — | $41,928 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $45 9.1% OTM over spot $41.23 9 Oct 2026 (9d, $0.75 mid) = $1,420 credit for the 9d cycle → $4,733/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $45.75) 82% EV / mo +$1,516 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 42% whole by 9mo vs 36% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,860/mo median; plan ~$1,265/mo after 68% keep · $13,688 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.2 mo [1.9-5.4], measured ONLY among the 42% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 33% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,832 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $53 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.30/sh now → $1.63 mid-life (likely $1.69–$2.60) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.71/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.92/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 991 simulated challenges: the $45 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $46 (overshoots $1.04). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45 is $22 below CC-SS $66.67: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.18/sh (~25% of the $0.71 collected) or spot ≥ $45.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $45)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.67, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-56,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$58,063 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $45): -$41,928 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-40,615 (+$16,135 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,935 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-38,680, the opportunity cost of earning $4,733/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $62.69 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$33,960, position total $-41,738 (+$15,012 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 20 × $42.50 | 9 Oct | 9d | 3.1% | 62%hist 64% | 78%hist 68% | +8pp | $2,780 | $9,267 | +$4,533 | $45,568 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $42.50 3.1% OTM over spot $41.23 9 Oct 2026 (9d, $1.42 mid) = $2,780 credit for the 9d cycle → $9,267/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $42.50) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $43.92) 73% EV / mo +$1,910 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 46% whole by 9mo vs 38% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~6.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,715/mo median; plan ~$1,846/mo after 68% keep · $19,179 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.1 mo [1.7-4.9], measured ONLY among the 46% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 64% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$172 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $52 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.09/sh now → $1.48 mid-life (likely $1.93–$2.69) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.09/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,908 simulated challenges: the $42 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $44 (overshoots $1.03). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $42.50 is $24 below CC-SS $66.67: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.35/sh (~25% of the $1.39 collected) or spot ≥ $43.92 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $42)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.67, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-56,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$58,063 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $42.50): -$45,568 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-44,255 (+$12,495 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,935 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-42,320, the opportunity cost of earning $9,267/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $62.69 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$37,600, position total $-45,378 (+$11,372 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 34 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.141 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$58,063 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,935
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $45 | 2d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.17 | 18/20 | $4,590 | $4,338 | 91% | 92% | +$2,754 | -$38,707 | 282.5% | $-37,719 (vs do-nothing $-35,784) |
| $44.50 | 2d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.21 | 15/20 | $4,725 | $4,501 | 88% | 90% | +$2,480 | -$32,946 | 240.5% | $-32,445 (vs do-nothing $-30,510) |
| $44 | 2d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.28 | 11/20 | $4,620 | $4,434 | 85% | 87% | +$2,224 | -$24,633 | 179.8% | $-24,782 (vs do-nothing $-22,847) |
| $43.50 | 2d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.36 | 9/20 | $4,860 | $4,693 | 80% | 84% | +$2,039 | -$20,532 | 149.9% | $-21,006 (vs do-nothing $-19,071) |
| $45 | 9d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.71 | 20/20 | $4,733 | $4,463 | 78% | 82% | +$1,516 | -$41,928 | 306.0% | $-40,615 (vs do-nothing $-38,680) |
| $44.50 | 9d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.81 | 17/20 | $4,590 | $4,348 | 76% | 80% | +$1,344 | -$36,319 | 265.1% | $-35,493 (vs do-nothing $-33,558) |
| $43 | 2d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.46 | 7/20 | $4,830 | $4,681 | 75% | 80% | +$1,715 | -$16,250 | 118.6% | $-17,048 (vs do-nothing $-15,113) |
| $45 | 16d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.25 | 20/20 | $4,688 | $4,417 | 74% | 79% | +$1,310 | -$40,848 | 298.2% | $-39,535 (vs do-nothing $-37,600) |
| $44 | 9d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.93 | 15/20 | $4,650 | $4,426 | 73% | 79% | +$1,259 | -$32,616 | 238.1% | $-32,115 (vs do-nothing $-30,180) |
| $44.50 | 16d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.34 | 18/20 | $4,523 | $4,271 | 71% | 78% | +$1,089 | -$37,501 | 273.7% | $-36,513 (vs do-nothing $-34,578) |
| $43.50 | 9d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.06 | 13/20 | $4,593 | $4,388 | 70% | 77% | +$1,125 | -$28,748 | 209.8% | $-28,572 (vs do-nothing $-26,637) |
| $42.50 | 2d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.60 | 6/20 | $5,400 | $5,261 | 69% | 77% | +$1,674 | -$14,144 | 103.2% | $-15,105 (vs do-nothing $-13,170) |
| $44 | 16d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.49 | 17/20 | $4,749 | $4,507 | 69% | 76% | +$1,091 | -$36,013 | 262.9% | $-35,187 (vs do-nothing $-33,252) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $44 | 23d | 23 Oct 2026 | $1.97 | 18/20 | $4,625 | $4,373 | 67% | 75% | +$928 | -$37,267 | 272.0% | $-36,279 (vs do-nothing $-34,344) |
| $43.50 | 16d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.62 | 15/20 | $4,556 | $4,333 | 66% | 75% | +$922 | -$32,331 | 236.0% | $-31,830 (vs do-nothing $-29,895) |
| $43 | 9d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.17 | 12/20 | $4,680 | $4,484 | 66% | 74% | +$914 | -$27,005 | 197.1% | $-26,991 (vs do-nothing $-25,056) |
| $43 | 16d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.83 | 14/20 | $4,804 | $4,589 | 64% | 73% | +$991 | -$30,581 | 223.2% | $-30,243 (vs do-nothing $-28,308) |
| $42 | 2d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.76 | 4/20 | $4,560 | $4,439 | 63% | 73% | +$1,158 | -$9,566 | 69.8% | $-10,851 (vs do-nothing $-8,916) |
| $42.50 | 9d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.39 | 10/20 | $4,633 | $4,456 | 62% | 73% | +$955 | -$22,784 | 166.3% | $-23,095 (vs do-nothing $-21,160) |
| $43 | 23d | 23 Oct 2026 | $2.31 | 15/20 | $4,520 | $4,296 | 62% | 73% | +$813 | -$32,046 | 233.9% | $-31,545 (vs do-nothing $-29,610) |
| $42.50 | 16d | 16 Oct 2026 | $2.01 | 12/20 | $4,522 | $4,327 | 61% | 72% | +$858 | -$26,597 | 194.1% | $-26,583 (vs do-nothing $-24,648) |
| $42 | 9d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.56 | 9/20 | $4,680 | $4,513 | 59% | 71% | +$817 | -$20,802 | 151.8% | $-21,276 (vs do-nothing $-19,341) |
| $42 | 16d | 16 Oct 2026 | $2.21 | 11/20 | $4,558 | $4,372 | 58% | 70% | +$800 | -$24,710 | 180.4% | $-24,859 (vs do-nothing $-22,924) |
| $42 | 23d | 23 Oct 2026 | $2.71 | 13/20 | $4,595 | $4,390 | 58% | 70% | +$747 | -$28,553 | 208.4% | $-28,377 (vs do-nothing $-26,442) |
| $41.50 | 2d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.95 | 4/20 | $5,700 | $5,579 | 55% | 69% | +$1,136 | -$9,690 | 70.7% | $-10,975 (vs do-nothing $-9,040) |
| $41.50 | 16d | 16 Oct 2026 | $2.41 | 11/20 | $4,971 | $4,784 | 55% | 69% | +$776 | -$25,040 | 182.8% | $-25,189 (vs do-nothing $-23,254) |
| $41.50 | 9d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.78 | 8/20 | $4,747 | $4,589 | 55% | 69% | +$758 | -$18,715 | 136.6% | $-19,351 (vs do-nothing $-17,416) |
| $41 | 23d | 23 Oct 2026 | $3.10 | 12/20 | $4,852 | $4,657 | 53% | 68% | +$619 | -$27,089 | 197.7% | $-27,075 (vs do-nothing $-25,140) |
| $41 | 16d | 16 Oct 2026 | $2.64 | 10/20 | $4,950 | $4,773 | 52% | 67% | +$705 | -$23,034 | 168.1% | $-23,345 (vs do-nothing $-21,410) |
| $41 | 9d | 9 Oct 2026 | $2.01 | 7/20 | $4,690 | $4,541 | 50% | 67% | +$657 | -$16,565 | 120.9% | $-17,363 (vs do-nothing $-15,428) |
| $40.50 | 16d | 16 Oct 2026 | $2.89 | 9/20 | $4,877 | $4,709 | 48% | 66% | +$636 | -$20,955 | 153.0% | $-21,429 (vs do-nothing $-19,494) |
| $41 | 2d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.18 | 3/20 | $5,310 | $5,199 | 48% | 66% | +$815 | -$7,348 | 53.6% | $-8,796 (vs do-nothing $-6,861) |
| $40.50 | 9d | 9 Oct 2026 | $2.27 | 6/20 | $4,540 | $4,401 | 46% | 65% | +$566 | -$14,342 | 104.7% | $-15,303 (vs do-nothing $-13,368) |
| $40.50 | 2d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.45 | 3/20 | $6,525 | $6,414 | 40% | 62% | +$749 | -$7,417 | 54.1% | $-8,865 (vs do-nothing $-6,930) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.