20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $63.43 | CC-SS: $66.43 (banked floor $64.59) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $107,700 | (ND $6.85 + SW $47) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $9,060/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $276/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-58,510 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 9 Oct 2026 · 8d | 19 × $43.50 | 78% | $4,774 | $1,797 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | cover hedge | 15 × $55 | 9 Oct | 8d | 36.8% | 99%hist 96% | 3%hist 3% | +0pp | $75 | $281 | -$4,493 | $17,063 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 15 × $55 36.8% OTM over spot $40.20 9 Oct 2026 (8d, $0.06 mid) = $75 credit for the 8d cycle → $281/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $55) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $55.06) 99% EV / mo +$222 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 42% whole by 9mo vs 42% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-13/mo median; plan ~$-9/mo after 68% keep · $-81 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.6 mo [1.2-4.9], measured ONLY among the 42% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,209 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $62 @ 80% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.10/sh now → $2.19 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.14/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $55 is $11 below CC-SS $66.43: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $55.06 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $55)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.92 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.43, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-58,510 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$59,805 − CC assignment net of premium (15 × $55): -$17,063 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $65): -$693 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,461 (+$42,049 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,476 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,985, the opportunity cost of earning $281/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $62.70 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,475, position total $-18,654 (+$39,856 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $46.50 | 9 Oct | 8d | 15.7% | 90%hist 96% | 20%hist 14% | +3pp | $540 | $2,025 | -$2,749 | $39,310 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $46.50 15.7% OTM over spot $40.20 9 Oct 2026 (8d, $0.30 mid) = $540 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,025/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $46.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $46.80) 91% EV / mo +$994 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 42% whole by 9mo vs 39% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,004/mo median; plan ~$683/mo after 68% keep · $7,229 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.1 mo [1.8-5.0], measured ONLY among the 42% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,727 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $52 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.31/sh now → $1.63 mid-life (likely $1.33–$2.27) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.27/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.36/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 323 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $47 (overshoots $0.99). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $46.50 is $20 below CC-SS $66.43: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.27 collected) or spot ≥ $46.80 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.92 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.43, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-58,510 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$59,805 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $46.50): -$39,310 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-38,016 (+$20,494 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,476 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-36,540, the opportunity cost of earning $2,025/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $62.70 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$31,860, position total $-39,059 (+$19,451 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 19 × $45 | 9 Oct | 8d | 12.0% | 85%hist 86% | 30%hist 33% | +6pp | $798 | $2,992 | -$1,781 | $39,910 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $45 12.0% OTM over spot $40.20 9 Oct 2026 (8d, $0.44 mid) = $798 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,992/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $45.45) 87% EV / mo +$1,256 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 44% whole by 9mo vs 38% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,434/mo median; plan ~$975/mo after 68% keep · $9,839 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.4 mo [2.1-5.4], measured ONLY among the 44% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 21% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,135 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $51 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.18/sh now → $1.54 mid-life (likely $1.43–$2.39) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.42/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.12/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 624 simulated challenges: the $45 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $46 (overshoots $1.05). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45 is $21 below CC-SS $66.43: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.42 collected) or spot ≥ $45.45 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $45)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.92 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.43, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-58,510 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$59,805 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $45): -$39,910 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $65): -$139 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-38,754 (+$19,756 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,476 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-37,278, the opportunity cost of earning $2,992/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $62.70 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$32,832, position total $-40,027 (+$18,483 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 19 × $43.50 | 9 Oct | 8d | 8.2% | 78%hist 82% | 45%hist 41% | +5pp | $1,273 | $4,774 | — | $42,285 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $43.50 8.2% OTM over spot $40.20 9 Oct 2026 (8d, $0.71 mid) = $1,273 credit for the 8d cycle → $4,774/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $43.50) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $44.20) 82% EV / mo +$1,668 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 42% whole by 9mo vs 36% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,964/mo median; plan ~$1,335/mo after 68% keep · $14,481 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.8 mo [2.3-5.8], measured ONLY among the 42% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 33% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,494 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $51 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.06/sh now → $1.46 mid-life (likely $1.50–$2.29) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.67/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.79/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 993 simulated challenges: the $44 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $44 (overshoots $0.93). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $43.50 is $23 below CC-SS $66.43: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.67 collected) or spot ≥ $44.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $44)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.92 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.43, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-58,510 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$59,805 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $43.50): -$42,285 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $65): -$139 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-41,129 (+$17,381 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,476 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-39,653, the opportunity cost of earning $4,774/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $62.70 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$35,207, position total $-42,402 (+$16,108 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 18 × $41 | 9 Oct | 8d | 2.0% | 59%hist 68% | 84%hist 80% | +9pp | $2,520 | $9,450 | +$4,676 | $43,245 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $41 2.0% OTM over spot $40.20 9 Oct 2026 (8d, $1.43 mid) = $2,520 credit for the 8d cycle → $9,450/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $41) 59% Breach risk 41% POP (stays ≤ $42.43) 71% EV / mo +$2,029 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 36% whole by 9mo vs 28% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~8.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,567/mo median; plan ~$1,745/mo after 68% keep · $19,816 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.5 mo [1.6-6.1], measured ONLY among the 36% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 66% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$151 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $51 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.86/sh now → $1.32 mid-life (likely $1.75–$2.51) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.08/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,993 simulated challenges: the $41 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $42 (overshoots $0.98). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $41 is $25 below CC-SS $66.43: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.35/sh (~25% of the $1.40 collected) or spot ≥ $42.43 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $41)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.92 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.43, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-58,510 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$59,805 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $41): -$43,245 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $65): -$277 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-42,228 (+$16,282 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,476 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-40,752, the opportunity cost of earning $9,450/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $62.70 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$36,540, position total $-43,731 (+$14,779 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 22 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.140 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$59,805 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,476
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $43.50 | 8d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.67 | 19/20 | $4,774 | $4,506 | 78% | 82% | +$1,668 | -$42,285 | 308.6% | $-41,129 (vs do-nothing $-39,653) |
| $43 | 8d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.78 | 16/20 | $4,680 | $4,436 | 75% | 80% | +$1,512 | -$36,232 | 264.5% | $-35,492 (vs do-nothing $-34,016) |
| $43.50 | 15d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.21 | 19/20 | $4,598 | $4,330 | 73% | 79% | +$1,438 | -$41,259 | 301.2% | $-40,103 (vs do-nothing $-38,627) |
| $42.50 | 8d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.90 | 14/20 | $4,725 | $4,497 | 72% | 78% | +$1,375 | -$32,235 | 235.3% | $-31,772 (vs do-nothing $-30,296) |
| $43 | 15d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.35 | 17/20 | $4,590 | $4,338 | 70% | 77% | +$1,231 | -$37,528 | 273.9% | $-36,649 (vs do-nothing $-35,173) |
| $43 | 22d | 23 Oct 2026 | $1.75 | 19/20 | $4,534 | $4,266 | 68% | 76% | +$954 | -$41,183 | 300.6% | $-40,027 (vs do-nothing $-38,551) |
| $42 | 8d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.03 | 12/20 | $4,635 | $4,423 | 68% | 76% | +$1,177 | -$28,074 | 204.9% | $-27,888 (vs do-nothing $-26,412) |
| $42.50 | 15d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.45 | 16/20 | $4,640 | $4,396 | 67% | 75% | +$1,044 | -$35,960 | 262.5% | $-35,220 (vs do-nothing $-33,744) |
| $42 | 15d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.61 | 15/20 | $4,830 | $4,594 | 64% | 74% | +$1,001 | -$34,223 | 249.8% | $-33,621 (vs do-nothing $-32,145) |
| $41.50 | 8d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.19 | 11/20 | $4,909 | $4,705 | 64% | 73% | +$1,108 | -$26,109 | 190.6% | $-26,061 (vs do-nothing $-24,585) |
| $42 | 22d | 23 Oct 2026 | $2.14 | 16/20 | $4,669 | $4,425 | 63% | 73% | +$979 | -$35,656 | 260.3% | $-34,916 (vs do-nothing $-33,440) |
| $41.50 | 15d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.83 | 13/20 | $4,758 | $4,538 | 61% | 72% | +$997 | -$30,024 | 219.2% | $-29,699 (vs do-nothing $-28,223) |
| $41 | 8d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.40 | 9/20 | $4,725 | $4,537 | 59% | 71% | +$1,015 | -$21,623 | 157.8% | $-21,852 (vs do-nothing $-20,376) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $41 | 15d | 16 Oct 2026 | $2.02 | 12/20 | $4,848 | $4,636 | 58% | 70% | +$787 | -$28,086 | 205.0% | $-27,900 (vs do-nothing $-26,424) |
| $41 | 22d | 23 Oct 2026 | $2.51 | 14/20 | $4,792 | $4,564 | 58% | 71% | +$857 | -$32,081 | 234.2% | $-31,618 (vs do-nothing $-30,142) |
| $40.50 | 15d | 16 Oct 2026 | $2.23 | 11/20 | $4,906 | $4,702 | 55% | 69% | +$848 | -$26,065 | 190.3% | $-26,017 (vs do-nothing $-24,541) |
| $40.50 | 8d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.58 | 8/20 | $4,740 | $4,560 | 55% | 69% | +$827 | -$19,476 | 142.2% | $-19,844 (vs do-nothing $-18,368) |
| $40 | 22d | 23 Oct 2026 | $2.90 | 12/20 | $4,745 | $4,533 | 52% | 68% | +$660 | -$28,230 | 206.1% | $-28,044 (vs do-nothing $-26,568) |
| $40 | 15d | 16 Oct 2026 | $2.46 | 10/20 | $4,920 | $4,724 | 52% | 67% | +$681 | -$23,965 | 174.9% | $-24,056 (vs do-nothing $-22,580) |
| $40 | 8d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.82 | 7/20 | $4,778 | $4,606 | 50% | 67% | +$742 | -$17,224 | 125.7% | $-17,730 (vs do-nothing $-16,254) |
| $39.50 | 15d | 16 Oct 2026 | $2.68 | 9/20 | $4,824 | $4,636 | 48% | 66% | +$504 | -$21,821 | 159.3% | $-22,050 (vs do-nothing $-20,574) |
| $39.50 | 8d | 9 Oct 2026 | $2.05 | 6/20 | $4,612 | $4,448 | 46% | 65% | +$563 | -$14,925 | 108.9% | $-15,570 (vs do-nothing $-14,094) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.