20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $63.43 | CC-SS: $67.37 (banked floor $65.51) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $107,700 | (ND $6.85 + SW $47) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $9,879/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $245/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-53,330 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 9 Oct 2026 · 7d | 19 × $46.50 | 78% | $4,967 | $2,517 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 20 × $56 | 9 Oct | 7d | 29.7% | 99%hist 96% | 2%hist 3% | +0pp | $60 | $257 | -$4,710 | $22,670 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $56 29.7% OTM over spot $43.16 9 Oct 2026 (7d, $0.05 mid) = $60 credit for the 7d cycle → $257/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $56) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $56.05) 99% EV / mo +$210 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 32% whole by 9mo vs 32% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-29/mo median; plan ~$-20/mo after 68% keep · $-230 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.1 mo [1.8-5.2], measured ONLY among the 32% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,859 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 13 Nov 2026) $83 @ 95% POP 94% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.77/sh now → $1.96 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.03/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.93/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $56 is $11 below CC-SS $67.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.03 collected) or spot ≥ $56.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $56)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.67 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-53,330 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$43,560 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $56): -$22,670 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-32,440 (+$20,890 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-14,440 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,000, the opportunity cost of earning $257/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $62.71 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$13,360, position total $-31,509 (+$21,821 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $49.50 | 9 Oct | 7d | 14.7% | 91%hist 96% | 18%hist 14% | +6pp | $440 | $1,886 | -$3,081 | $35,290 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $49.50 14.7% OTM over spot $43.16 9 Oct 2026 (7d, $0.24 mid) = $440 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,886/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $49.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $49.74) 92% EV / mo +$892 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 36% whole by 9mo vs 30% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $989/mo median; plan ~$672/mo after 68% keep · $7,219 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.8 mo [2.3-6.3], measured ONLY among the 36% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,721 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 13 Nov 2026) $66 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.23/sh now → $1.58 mid-life (likely $1.22–$2.13) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.36/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 318 simulated challenges: the $50 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $51 (overshoots $1.04). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $49.50 is $18 below CC-SS $67.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.22 collected) or spot ≥ $49.74 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $50)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.67 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-53,330 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$43,560 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $49.50): -$35,290 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-45,060 (+$8,270 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-14,440 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-30,620, the opportunity cost of earning $1,886/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $62.71 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$25,980, position total $-44,129 (+$9,201 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 20 × $48 | 9 Oct | 7d | 11.2% | 86%hist 86% | 29%hist 25% | +9pp | $780 | $3,343 | -$1,624 | $37,950 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $48 11.2% OTM over spot $43.16 9 Oct 2026 (7d, $0.41 mid) = $780 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,343/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $48.41) 88% EV / mo +$1,417 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 41% whole by 9mo vs 32% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,677/mo median; plan ~$1,140/mo after 68% keep · $12,224 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.4 mo [2.1-5.6], measured ONLY among the 41% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 19% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,217 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 13 Nov 2026) $65 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.12/sh now → $1.50 mid-life (likely $1.36–$2.28) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.11/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 565 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $49 (overshoots $1.09). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48 is $19 below CC-SS $67.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.39 collected) or spot ≥ $48.41 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.67 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-53,330 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$43,560 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $48): -$37,950 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-47,720 (+$5,610 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-14,440 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-33,280, the opportunity cost of earning $3,343/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $62.71 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$28,640, position total $-46,789 (+$6,541 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 19 × $46.50 | 9 Oct | 7d | 7.7% | 78%hist 82% | 45%hist 41% | +9pp | $1,159 | $4,967 | — | $38,485 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $46.50 7.7% OTM over spot $43.16 9 Oct 2026 (7d, $0.64 mid) = $1,159 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,967/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $46.50) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $47.14) 82% EV / mo +$1,580 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 38% whole by 9mo vs 30% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,101/mo median; plan ~$1,428/mo after 68% keep · $15,964 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.7 mo [2.1-5.7], measured ONLY among the 38% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 30% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,536 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 13 Nov 2026) $63 @ 93% POP 92% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.01/sh now → $1.42 mid-life (likely $1.45–$2.31) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.61/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.81/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 914 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $47 (overshoots $0.98). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $46.50 is $21 below CC-SS $67.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.61 collected) or spot ≥ $47.14 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.67 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-53,330 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$43,560 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $46.50): -$38,485 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $65): -$234 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-48,488 (+$4,842 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-14,440 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-34,048, the opportunity cost of earning $4,967/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $62.71 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$29,640, position total $-47,786 (+$5,544 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 18 × $44 | 9 Oct | 7d | 1.9% | 60%hist 68% | 84%hist 80% | +13pp | $2,376 | $10,183 | +$5,216 | $39,681 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $44 1.9% OTM over spot $43.16 9 Oct 2026 (7d, $1.36 mid) = $2,376 credit for the 7d cycle → $10,183/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $44) 60% Breach risk 40% POP (stays ≤ $45.36) 71% EV / mo +$1,842 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +13pp 41% whole by 9mo vs 28% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~9.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,837/mo median; plan ~$1,929/mo after 68% keep · $21,044 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.9 mo [2.5-5.7], measured ONLY among the 41% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 65% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$53 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 13 Nov 2026) $56 @ 89% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.82/sh now → $1.29 mid-life (likely $1.71–$2.46) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.32/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,955 simulated challenges: the $44 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $45 (overshoots $1.01). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $44 is $23 below CC-SS $67.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.33/sh (~25% of the $1.32 collected) or spot ≥ $45.36 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $44)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.67 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-53,330 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$43,560 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $44): -$39,681 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $65): -$467 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-49,918 (+$3,412 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-14,440 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-35,478, the opportunity cost of earning $10,183/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $62.71 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$31,302, position total $-49,445 (+$3,885 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (6 expiries scanned, 50 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$43,560 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-14,440
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $46.50 | 7d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.61 | 19/20 | $4,967 | $4,729 | 78% | 82% | +$1,580 | -$38,485 | 280.9% | $-48,488 (vs do-nothing $-34,048) |
| $46 | 7d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.72 | 17/20 | $5,246 | $5,020 | 75% | 80% | +$1,540 | -$35,097 | 256.2% | $-45,567 (vs do-nothing $-31,127) |
| $46.50 | 14d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.23 | 19/20 | $5,008 | $4,769 | 72% | 78% | +$1,273 | -$37,307 | 272.3% | $-47,310 (vs do-nothing $-32,870) |
| $45.50 | 7d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.86 | 14/20 | $5,160 | $4,954 | 72% | 78% | +$1,445 | -$29,407 | 214.6% | $-40,578 (vs do-nothing $-26,138) |
| $46 | 14d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.36 | 17/20 | $4,954 | $4,729 | 70% | 76% | +$1,154 | -$34,009 | 248.2% | $-44,479 (vs do-nothing $-30,039) |
| $45 | 7d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.98 | 12/20 | $5,040 | $4,847 | 68% | 75% | +$1,183 | -$25,662 | 187.3% | $-37,300 (vs do-nothing $-22,860) |
| $46 | 21d | 23 Oct 2026 | $1.90 | 19/20 | $5,157 | $4,919 | 67% | 75% | +$1,105 | -$36,984 | 270.0% | $-46,987 (vs do-nothing $-32,547) |
| $45.50 | 14d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.52 | 16/20 | $5,211 | $4,992 | 67% | 75% | +$1,151 | -$32,552 | 237.6% | $-43,256 (vs do-nothing $-28,816) |
| $46 | 28d | 30 Oct 2026 | $2.33 | 20/20 | $4,993 | $4,748 | 66% | 75% | +$1,091 | -$38,070 | 277.9% | $-47,840 (vs do-nothing $-33,400) |
| $46 | 42d | 13 Nov 2026 | $3.65 | 19/20 | $4,954 | $4,715 | 65% | 76% | +$1,613 | -$33,659 | 245.7% | $-43,662 (vs do-nothing $-29,222) |
| $46 | 35d | 6 Nov 2026 | $3.00 | 20/20 | $5,143 | $4,898 | 65% | 74% | +$893 | -$36,730 | 268.1% | $-46,500 (vs do-nothing $-32,060) |
| $45 | 14d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.68 | 14/20 | $5,040 | $4,834 | 64% | 73% | +$1,017 | -$28,959 | 211.4% | $-40,130 (vs do-nothing $-25,690) |
| $44.50 | 7d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.14 | 11/20 | $5,374 | $5,187 | 64% | 73% | +$1,116 | -$23,898 | 174.4% | $-35,769 (vs do-nothing $-21,329) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $45 | 21d | 23 Oct 2026 | $2.23 | 16/20 | $5,097 | $4,878 | 63% | 73% | +$954 | -$32,216 | 235.2% | $-42,920 (vs do-nothing $-28,480) |
| $45 | 28d | 30 Oct 2026 | $2.72 | 17/20 | $4,954 | $4,729 | 62% | 73% | +$904 | -$33,397 | 243.8% | $-43,867 (vs do-nothing $-29,427) |
| $45 | 42d | 13 Nov 2026 | $4.00 | 18/20 | $5,143 | $4,911 | 61% | 74% | +$1,514 | -$33,057 | 241.3% | $-43,294 (vs do-nothing $-28,854) |
| $45 | 35d | 6 Nov 2026 | $3.35 | 18/20 | $5,169 | $4,937 | 61% | 72% | +$806 | -$34,227 | 249.8% | $-44,464 (vs do-nothing $-30,024) |
| $44.50 | 14d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.86 | 13/20 | $5,181 | $4,982 | 61% | 72% | +$962 | -$27,307 | 199.3% | $-38,711 (vs do-nothing $-24,271) |
| $44 | 7d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.32 | 9/20 | $5,091 | $4,917 | 60% | 71% | +$921 | -$19,841 | 144.8% | $-32,179 (vs do-nothing $-17,739) |
| $44 | 14d | 16 Oct 2026 | $2.05 | 12/20 | $5,271 | $5,078 | 58% | 70% | +$885 | -$25,578 | 186.7% | $-37,216 (vs do-nothing $-22,776) |
| $44 | 42d | 13 Nov 2026 | $4.40 | 16/20 | $5,029 | $4,809 | 58% | 73% | +$1,344 | -$30,344 | 221.5% | $-41,048 (vs do-nothing $-26,608) |
| $44 | 35d | 6 Nov 2026 | $3.75 | 16/20 | $5,143 | $4,924 | 58% | 71% | +$729 | -$31,384 | 229.1% | $-42,088 (vs do-nothing $-27,648) |
| $44 | 21d | 23 Oct 2026 | $2.61 | 14/20 | $5,220 | $5,014 | 58% | 70% | +$842 | -$29,057 | 212.1% | $-40,228 (vs do-nothing $-25,788) |
| $44 | 28d | 30 Oct 2026 | $3.10 | 15/20 | $4,982 | $4,769 | 58% | 70% | +$785 | -$30,398 | 221.9% | $-41,335 (vs do-nothing $-26,895) |
| $43.50 | 7d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.53 | 8/20 | $5,246 | $5,078 | 55% | 69% | +$837 | -$17,868 | 130.4% | $-30,440 (vs do-nothing $-16,000) |
| $43.50 | 14d | 16 Oct 2026 | $2.25 | 11/20 | $5,304 | $5,117 | 55% | 69% | +$787 | -$23,777 | 173.6% | $-35,648 (vs do-nothing $-21,208) |
| $43 | 42d | 13 Nov 2026 | $4.80 | 15/20 | $5,143 | $4,930 | 54% | 71% | +$1,213 | -$29,348 | 214.2% | $-40,285 (vs do-nothing $-25,845) |
| $43 | 35d | 6 Nov 2026 | $4.20 | 14/20 | $5,040 | $4,834 | 54% | 69% | +$656 | -$28,231 | 206.1% | $-39,402 (vs do-nothing $-24,962) |
| $43 | 28d | 30 Oct 2026 | $3.50 | 14/20 | $5,250 | $5,044 | 53% | 68% | +$670 | -$29,211 | 213.2% | $-40,382 (vs do-nothing $-25,942) |
| $43 | 21d | 23 Oct 2026 | $3.00 | 12/20 | $5,143 | $4,949 | 53% | 68% | +$638 | -$25,638 | 187.1% | $-37,276 (vs do-nothing $-22,836) |
| $43 | 14d | 16 Oct 2026 | $2.47 | 10/20 | $5,293 | $5,112 | 52% | 67% | +$694 | -$21,895 | 159.8% | $-34,000 (vs do-nothing $-19,560) |
| $42 | 42d | 13 Nov 2026 | $5.30 | 14/20 | $5,300 | $5,094 | 50% | 69% | +$1,144 | -$28,091 | 205.0% | $-39,262 (vs do-nothing $-24,822) |
| $42 | 35d | 6 Nov 2026 | $4.65 | 13/20 | $5,181 | $4,982 | 50% | 68% | +$575 | -$26,930 | 196.6% | $-38,334 (vs do-nothing $-23,894) |
| $43 | 7d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.76 | 7/20 | $5,280 | $5,119 | 50% | 67% | +$725 | -$15,824 | 115.5% | $-28,629 (vs do-nothing $-14,189) |
| $42 | 28d | 30 Oct 2026 | $3.95 | 12/20 | $5,079 | $4,885 | 49% | 66% | +$514 | -$25,698 | 187.6% | $-37,336 (vs do-nothing $-22,896) |
| $42.50 | 14d | 16 Oct 2026 | $2.72 | 9/20 | $5,246 | $5,072 | 48% | 66% | +$625 | -$19,931 | 145.5% | $-32,269 (vs do-nothing $-17,829) |
| $42 | 21d | 23 Oct 2026 | $3.50 | 10/20 | $5,000 | $4,819 | 47% | 66% | +$526 | -$21,865 | 159.6% | $-33,970 (vs do-nothing $-19,530) |
| $41 | 42d | 13 Nov 2026 | $5.75 | 13/20 | $5,339 | $5,139 | 47% | 68% | +$985 | -$26,800 | 195.6% | $-38,204 (vs do-nothing $-23,764) |
| $41 | 35d | 6 Nov 2026 | $5.20 | 12/20 | $5,349 | $5,155 | 46% | 66% | +$552 | -$25,398 | 185.4% | $-37,036 (vs do-nothing $-22,596) |
| $42.50 | 7d | 9 Oct 2026 | $2.03 | 6/20 | $5,220 | $5,065 | 46% | 65% | +$643 | -$13,701 | 100.0% | $-26,740 (vs do-nothing $-12,300) |
| $42 | 14d | 16 Oct 2026 | $2.98 | 8/20 | $5,109 | $4,941 | 45% | 65% | +$537 | -$17,908 | 130.7% | $-30,480 (vs do-nothing $-16,040) |
| $41 | 28d | 30 Oct 2026 | $4.50 | 11/20 | $5,304 | $5,117 | 44% | 65% | +$465 | -$24,052 | 175.6% | $-35,923 (vs do-nothing $-21,483) |
| $41.50 | 14d | 16 Oct 2026 | $3.20 | 8/20 | $5,486 | $5,318 | 42% | 63% | +$415 | -$18,132 | 132.4% | $-30,704 (vs do-nothing $-16,264) |
| $41 | 21d | 23 Oct 2026 | $4.05 | 9/20 | $5,207 | $5,033 | 42% | 64% | +$446 | -$20,084 | 146.6% | $-32,422 (vs do-nothing $-17,982) |
| $42 | 7d | 9 Oct 2026 | $2.33 | 5/20 | $4,993 | $4,844 | 41% | 63% | +$556 | -$11,518 | 84.1% | $-24,790 (vs do-nothing $-10,350) |
| $41 | 14d | 16 Oct 2026 | $3.50 | 7/20 | $5,250 | $5,089 | 38% | 62% | +$345 | -$16,006 | 116.8% | $-28,811 (vs do-nothing $-14,371) |
| $41.50 | 7d | 9 Oct 2026 | $2.59 | 5/20 | $5,550 | $5,402 | 36% | 61% | +$430 | -$11,638 | 84.9% | $-24,910 (vs do-nothing $-10,470) |
| $40.50 | 14d | 16 Oct 2026 | $3.80 | 7/20 | $5,700 | $5,539 | 35% | 61% | +$297 | -$16,146 | 117.9% | $-28,951 (vs do-nothing $-14,511) |
| $41 | 7d | 9 Oct 2026 | $2.88 | 5/20 | $6,171 | $6,023 | 32% | 59% | +$310 | -$11,743 | 85.7% | $-25,015 (vs do-nothing $-10,575) |
| $40.50 | 7d | 9 Oct 2026 | $3.20 | 4/20 | $5,486 | $5,344 | 27% | 58% | +$159 | -$9,466 | 69.1% | $-22,972 (vs do-nothing $-8,532) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.