20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $63.43 | CC-SS: $66.56 (banked floor $64.54) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $107,700 | (ND $6.85 + SW $47) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $7,835/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $227/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-57,830 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 9 Oct 2026 · 3d | 18 × $44 | 86% | $4,140 | $3,480 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 16 Oct 2026 · 10d | 20 × $44.50 | 79% | $4,020 | $1,087 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 12 × $50 | 9 Oct | 3d | 22.6% | 99%hist 96% | 2%hist 3% | +0pp | $24 | $240 | -$3,900 | $19,843 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 12 × $50 22.6% OTM over spot $40.78 9 Oct 2026 (3d, $0.03 mid) = $24 credit for the 3d cycle → $240/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $50) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $50.02) 99% EV / mo +$189 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 45% whole by 9mo vs 45% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $24/mo median; plan ~$16/mo after 68% keep · $72 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.2-4.1], measured ONLY among the 45% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,366 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $60 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.64/sh now → $1.16 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.02/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.14/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $50 is $17 below CC-SS $66.56: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.02 collected) or spot ≥ $50.02 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $50)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.29 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.56, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-57,830 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$59,389 − CC assignment net of premium (12 × $50): -$19,843 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (8 × $65): -$1,229 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,512 (+$38,318 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,512 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,000, the opportunity cost of earning $240/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $61.21 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$13,428, position total $-24,169 (+$33,661 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 19 × $45 | 9 Oct | 3d | 10.4% | 91%hist 96% | 17%hist 13% | +6pp | $266 | $2,660 | -$1,480 | $40,690 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $45 10.4% OTM over spot $40.78 9 Oct 2026 (3d, $0.15 mid) = $266 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,660/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $45.15) 92% EV / mo +$1,377 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 45% whole by 9mo vs 38% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,594/mo median; plan ~$1,084/mo after 68% keep · $10,241 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.1 mo [1.8-4.9], measured ONLY among the 45% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,573 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $54 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.37/sh now → $0.97 mid-life (likely $0.84–$1.60) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.83/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 261 simulated challenges: the $45 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $46 (overshoots $0.87). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45 is $22 below CC-SS $66.56: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.14 collected) or spot ≥ $45.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $45)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.29 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.56, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-57,830 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$59,389 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $45): -$40,690 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $65): -$154 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-39,284 (+$18,546 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,512 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-37,772, the opportunity cost of earning $2,660/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $61.21 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$30,533, position total $-41,288 (+$16,542 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $45 | 9 Oct | 3d | 10.4% | 91%hist 96% | 17%hist 13% | +7pp | $280 | $2,800 | -$1,340 | $42,831 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $45 10.4% OTM over spot $40.78 9 Oct 2026 (3d, $0.15 mid) = $280 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,800/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $45.15) 92% EV / mo +$1,450 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 46% whole by 9mo vs 38% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,706/mo median; plan ~$1,160/mo after 68% keep · $10,811 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.0 mo [1.9-5.2], measured ONLY among the 46% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,656 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $54 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.37/sh now → $0.97 mid-life (likely $0.92–$1.81) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.83/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 232 simulated challenges: the $45 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $46 (overshoots $0.99). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45 is $22 below CC-SS $66.56: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.14 collected) or spot ≥ $45.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $45)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.29 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.56, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-57,830 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$59,389 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $45): -$42,831 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-41,272 (+$16,558 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,512 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-39,760, the opportunity cost of earning $2,800/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $61.21 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$32,140, position total $-42,897 (+$14,933 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 18 × $44 | 9 Oct | 3d | 7.9% | 86%hist 87% | 28%hist 24% | +9pp | $414 | $4,140 | — | $40,186 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $44 7.9% OTM over spot $40.78 9 Oct 2026 (3d, $0.24 mid) = $414 credit for the 3d cycle → $4,140/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $44) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $44.24) 88% EV / mo +$1,816 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 45% whole by 9mo vs 36% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,249/mo median; plan ~$1,529/mo after 68% keep · $15,165 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.1 mo [2.1-5.3], measured ONLY among the 45% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 16% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,263 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $53 @ 88% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.32/sh now → $0.93 mid-life (likely $0.92–$1.67) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.23/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.70/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 478 simulated challenges: the $44 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $45 (overshoots $0.97). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $44 is $23 below CC-SS $66.56: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.23 collected) or spot ≥ $44.24 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $44)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.29 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.56, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-57,830 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$59,389 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $44): -$40,186 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $65): -$307 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-38,934 (+$18,896 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,512 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-37,422, the opportunity cost of earning $4,140/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $61.21 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$30,564, position total $-41,317 (+$16,513 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 16 × $42.50 | 9 Oct | 3d | 4.2% | 74%hist 83% | 54%hist 46% | +12pp | $784 | $7,840 | +$3,700 | $37,705 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 16 × $42.50 4.2% OTM over spot $40.78 9 Oct 2026 (3d, $0.52 mid) = $784 credit for the 3d cycle → $7,840/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $42.50) 74% Breach risk 26% POP (stays ≤ $43.02) 79% EV / mo +$2,315 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 48% whole by 9mo vs 36% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~8.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,198/mo median; plan ~$2,175/mo after 68% keep · $21,482 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.3 mo [1.9-5.2], measured ONLY among the 48% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 36% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$622 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $53 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 16 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.24/sh now → $0.88 mid-life (likely $1.04–$1.78) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.49/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.39/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,070 simulated challenges: the $42 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $43 (overshoots $0.97). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $42.50 is $24 below CC-SS $66.56: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.49 collected) or spot ≥ $43.02 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $42)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.29 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.56, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-57,830 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$59,389 − CC assignment net of premium (16 × $42.50): -$37,705 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $65): -$614 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-36,760 (+$21,070 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,512 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-35,248, the opportunity cost of earning $7,840/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $61.21 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$29,152, position total $-39,901 (+$17,929 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 11 × $55 | 16 Oct | 10d | 34.9% | 98%hist 96% | 5%hist 3% | +0pp | $77 | $231 | -$3,789 | $12,634 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 11 × $55 34.9% OTM over spot $40.78 16 Oct 2026 (10d, $0.08 mid) = $77 credit for the 10d cycle → $231/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $55) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $55.08) 98% EV / mo +$144 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 42% whole by 9mo vs 41% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $7/mo median; plan ~$5/mo after 68% keep · $26 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.9 mo [1.7-4.6], measured ONLY among the 42% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,443 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $60 @ 77% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 11 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.24/sh now → $2.29 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.22/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $55 is $12 below CC-SS $66.56: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.07 collected) or spot ≥ $55.08 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $55)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.29 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.56, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-57,830 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$59,389 − CC assignment net of premium (11 × $55): -$12,634 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (9 × $65): -$1,382 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,457 (+$45,373 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,512 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,945, the opportunity cost of earning $231/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $61.21 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,754, position total $-17,493 (+$40,337 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $48 | 16 Oct | 10d | 17.7% | 91%hist 96% | 19%hist 13% | +3pp | $520 | $1,560 | -$2,460 | $36,591 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $48 17.7% OTM over spot $40.78 16 Oct 2026 (10d, $0.29 mid) = $520 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,560/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $48.29) 92% EV / mo +$700 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 38% whole by 9mo vs 35% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $740/mo median; plan ~$503/mo after 68% keep · $5,331 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.5 mo [1.8-6.0], measured ONLY among the 38% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,074 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $53 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.54/sh now → $1.80 mid-life (likely $1.35–$2.41) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.54/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 307 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $49 (overshoots $0.97). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48 is $19 below CC-SS $66.56: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.26 collected) or spot ≥ $48.29 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.29 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.56, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-57,830 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$59,389 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $48): -$36,591 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-35,032 (+$22,798 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,512 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-33,520, the opportunity cost of earning $1,560/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $61.21 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$25,900, position total $-36,657 (+$21,173 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 19 × $46 | 16 Oct | 10d | 12.8% | 85%hist 87% | 31%hist 31% | +7pp | $874 | $2,622 | -$1,398 | $38,182 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $46 12.8% OTM over spot $40.78 16 Oct 2026 (10d, $0.47 mid) = $874 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,622/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $46) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $46.47) 87% EV / mo +$1,000 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 44% whole by 9mo vs 38% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,240/mo median; plan ~$843/mo after 68% keep · $8,701 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.5 mo [1.9-5.1], measured ONLY among the 44% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 19% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,293 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $51 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.36/sh now → $1.67 mid-life (likely $1.44–$2.40) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.46/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.21/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 559 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $47 (overshoots $0.93). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $46 is $21 below CC-SS $66.56: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.46 collected) or spot ≥ $46.47 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.29 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.56, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-57,830 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$59,389 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $46): -$38,182 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $65): -$154 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-36,776 (+$21,054 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,512 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-35,264, the opportunity cost of earning $2,622/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $61.21 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$28,025, position total $-38,780 (+$19,050 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 20 × $44.50 | 16 Oct | 10d | 9.1% | 79%hist 83% | 44%hist 40% | +7pp | $1,340 | $4,020 | — | $42,771 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $44.50 9.1% OTM over spot $40.78 16 Oct 2026 (10d, $0.71 mid) = $1,340 credit for the 10d cycle → $4,020/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $44.50) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $45.20) 82% EV / mo +$1,305 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 46% whole by 9mo vs 38% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,724/mo median; plan ~$1,172/mo after 68% keep · $11,910 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.4 mo [2.1-5.3], measured ONLY among the 46% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,805 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $51 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.22/sh now → $1.57 mid-life (likely $1.57–$2.41) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.67/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.90/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 951 simulated challenges: the $44 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $45 (overshoots $0.90). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $44.50 is $22 below CC-SS $66.56: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.67 collected) or spot ≥ $45.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $44)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.29 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.56, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-57,830 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$59,389 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $44.50): -$42,771 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-41,212 (+$16,618 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,512 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-39,700, the opportunity cost of earning $4,020/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $61.21 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$32,080, position total $-42,837 (+$14,993 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 20 × $42 | 16 Oct | 10d | 3.0% | 62%hist 65% | 78%hist 68% | +7pp | $2,680 | $8,040 | +$4,020 | $46,431 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $42 3.0% OTM over spot $40.78 16 Oct 2026 (10d, $1.35 mid) = $2,680 credit for the 10d cycle → $8,040/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $42) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $43.35) 73% EV / mo +$1,739 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 38% whole by 9mo vs 30% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~6.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,367/mo median; plan ~$1,609/mo after 68% keep · $18,169 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.7 mo [2.3-5.8], measured ONLY among the 38% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 64% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$162 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $51 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.01/sh now → $1.42 mid-life (likely $1.87–$2.54) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.34/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.08/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,924 simulated challenges: the $42 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $43 (overshoots $0.93). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $42 is $25 below CC-SS $66.56: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.34/sh (~25% of the $1.34 collected) or spot ≥ $43.35 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $42)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.29 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.56, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-57,830 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$59,389 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $42): -$46,431 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-44,872 (+$12,958 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,512 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-43,360, the opportunity cost of earning $8,040/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $61.21 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$35,740, position total $-46,497 (+$11,333 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 33 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.152 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$59,389 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,512
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $44 | 3d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.23 | 18/20 | $4,140 | $3,925 | 86% | 88% | +$1,816 | -$40,186 | 293.3% | $-38,934 (vs do-nothing $-37,422) |
| $43.50 | 3d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.30 | 14/20 | $4,200 | $4,009 | 83% | 85% | +$1,683 | -$31,858 | 232.5% | $-31,220 (vs do-nothing $-29,708) |
| $44.50 | 10d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.67 | 20/20 | $4,020 | $3,793 | 79% | 82% | +$1,305 | -$42,771 | 312.2% | $-41,212 (vs do-nothing $-39,700) |
| $43 | 3d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.39 | 11/20 | $4,290 | $4,117 | 79% | 82% | +$1,540 | -$25,482 | 186.0% | $-25,305 (vs do-nothing $-23,793) |
| $44 | 10d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.76 | 18/20 | $4,104 | $3,889 | 76% | 81% | +$1,204 | -$39,232 | 286.4% | $-37,980 (vs do-nothing $-36,468) |
| $42.50 | 3d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.49 | 8/20 | $3,920 | $3,765 | 74% | 79% | +$1,158 | -$18,853 | 137.6% | $-19,136 (vs do-nothing $-17,624) |
| $43.50 | 10d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.87 | 16/20 | $4,176 | $3,973 | 73% | 79% | +$1,119 | -$35,497 | 259.1% | $-34,552 (vs do-nothing $-33,040) |
| $44 | 17d | 23 Oct 2026 | $1.21 | 19/20 | $4,057 | $3,836 | 72% | 78% | +$990 | -$40,557 | 296.0% | $-39,151 (vs do-nothing $-37,639) |
| $43 | 10d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.00 | 14/20 | $4,200 | $4,009 | 70% | 77% | +$1,032 | -$31,578 | 230.5% | $-30,940 (vs do-nothing $-29,428) |
| $44 | 24d | 30 Oct 2026 | $1.68 | 19/20 | $3,990 | $3,769 | 70% | 77% | +$1,020 | -$39,664 | 289.5% | $-38,258 (vs do-nothing $-36,746) |
| $43.50 | 17d | 23 Oct 2026 | $1.35 | 17/20 | $4,050 | $3,841 | 69% | 76% | +$937 | -$36,900 | 269.3% | $-35,801 (vs do-nothing $-34,289) |
| $42 | 3d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.64 | 7/20 | $4,480 | $4,331 | 68% | 76% | +$1,181 | -$16,741 | 122.2% | $-17,178 (vs do-nothing $-15,666) |
| $43 | 17d | 23 Oct 2026 | $1.47 | 16/20 | $4,151 | $3,948 | 67% | 75% | +$830 | -$35,337 | 257.9% | $-34,392 (vs do-nothing $-32,880) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $42.50 | 10d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.15 | 12/20 | $4,140 | $3,961 | 66% | 75% | +$931 | -$27,487 | 200.6% | $-27,156 (vs do-nothing $-25,644) |
| $43 | 24d | 30 Oct 2026 | $1.97 | 16/20 | $3,940 | $3,737 | 65% | 74% | +$863 | -$34,537 | 252.1% | $-33,592 (vs do-nothing $-32,080) |
| $42.50 | 17d | 23 Oct 2026 | $1.64 | 14/20 | $4,052 | $3,861 | 64% | 73% | +$765 | -$31,382 | 229.1% | $-30,744 (vs do-nothing $-29,232) |
| $42 | 10d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.34 | 10/20 | $4,020 | $3,853 | 62% | 73% | +$869 | -$23,216 | 169.5% | $-23,192 (vs do-nothing $-21,680) |
| $41.50 | 3d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.80 | 5/20 | $4,000 | $3,863 | 61% | 72% | +$840 | -$12,128 | 88.5% | $-12,872 (vs do-nothing $-11,360) |
| $42 | 17d | 23 Oct 2026 | $1.81 | 13/20 | $4,152 | $3,968 | 61% | 72% | +$705 | -$29,569 | 215.8% | $-29,085 (vs do-nothing $-27,573) |
| $42 | 24d | 30 Oct 2026 | $2.32 | 14/20 | $4,060 | $3,869 | 60% | 72% | +$761 | -$31,130 | 227.2% | $-30,492 (vs do-nothing $-28,980) |
| $41.50 | 10d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.51 | 9/20 | $4,077 | $3,916 | 58% | 71% | +$748 | -$21,191 | 154.7% | $-21,321 (vs do-nothing $-19,809) |
| $41.50 | 17d | 23 Oct 2026 | $2.02 | 11/20 | $3,921 | $3,749 | 58% | 70% | +$633 | -$25,339 | 185.0% | $-25,162 (vs do-nothing $-23,650) |
| $41 | 24d | 30 Oct 2026 | $2.72 | 12/20 | $4,080 | $3,901 | 55% | 69% | +$636 | -$27,403 | 200.0% | $-27,072 (vs do-nothing $-25,560) |
| $41 | 3d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.00 | 4/20 | $4,000 | $3,869 | 55% | 68% | +$676 | -$9,822 | 71.7% | $-10,720 (vs do-nothing $-9,208) |
| $41 | 17d | 23 Oct 2026 | $2.22 | 10/20 | $3,918 | $3,751 | 54% | 69% | +$557 | -$23,336 | 170.3% | $-23,312 (vs do-nothing $-21,800) |
| $41 | 10d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.72 | 8/20 | $4,128 | $3,973 | 54% | 68% | +$669 | -$19,069 | 139.2% | $-19,352 (vs do-nothing $-17,840) |
| $40.50 | 17d | 23 Oct 2026 | $2.45 | 10/20 | $4,324 | $4,157 | 51% | 67% | +$554 | -$23,606 | 172.3% | $-23,582 (vs do-nothing $-22,070) |
| $40.50 | 10d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.95 | 7/20 | $4,095 | $3,946 | 50% | 66% | +$575 | -$16,874 | 123.2% | $-17,311 (vs do-nothing $-15,799) |
| $40 | 24d | 30 Oct 2026 | $3.25 | 10/20 | $4,062 | $3,896 | 49% | 67% | +$591 | -$23,306 | 170.1% | $-23,282 (vs do-nothing $-21,770) |
| $40 | 17d | 23 Oct 2026 | $2.69 | 9/20 | $4,272 | $4,112 | 48% | 66% | +$479 | -$21,479 | 156.8% | $-21,609 (vs do-nothing $-20,097) |
| $40.50 | 3d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.24 | 4/20 | $4,960 | $4,829 | 47% | 65% | +$678 | -$9,926 | 72.5% | $-10,824 (vs do-nothing $-9,312) |
| $40 | 10d | 16 Oct 2026 | $2.21 | 6/20 | $3,978 | $3,835 | 45% | 65% | +$488 | -$14,607 | 106.6% | $-15,198 (vs do-nothing $-13,686) |
| $40 | 3d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.50 | 3/20 | $4,500 | $4,375 | 40% | 62% | +$443 | -$7,517 | 54.9% | $-8,568 (vs do-nothing $-7,056) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.