20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $63.43 | CC-SS: $66.41 (banked floor $64.25) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $107,700 | (ND $6.85 + SW $47) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $7,800/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $307/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-65,970 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 16 Oct 2026 · 8d | 19 × $40 | 79% | $3,919 | $1,497 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 17 × $49.50 | 16 Oct | 8d | 33.6% | 98%hist 96% | 4%hist 3% | +1pp | $85 | $319 | -$3,600 | $28,663 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $49.50 33.6% OTM over spot $37.06 16 Oct 2026 (8d, $0.06 mid) = $85 credit for the 8d cycle → $319/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $49.50) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $49.56) 98% EV / mo +$224 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 38% whole by 9mo vs 37% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-48/mo median; plan ~$-33/mo after 68% keep · $-335 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.0 mo [1.5-5.0], measured ONLY among the 38% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,001 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $55 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.57/sh now → $1.82 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.77/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $49.50 is $17 below CC-SS $66.41: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $49.56 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $50)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.95 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.41, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-65,970 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$67,448 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $49.50): -$28,663 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $65): -$420 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,606 (+$38,364 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,324 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,282, the opportunity cost of earning $319/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $44.65 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-48,525 (+$17,445 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $42.50 | 16 Oct | 8d | 14.7% | 90%hist 96% | 20%hist 24% | +2pp | $460 | $1,725 | -$2,194 | $47,361 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $42.50 14.7% OTM over spot $37.06 16 Oct 2026 (8d, $0.24 mid) = $460 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,725/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $42.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $42.74) 91% EV / mo +$825 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 28% whole by 9mo vs 26% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $813/mo median; plan ~$553/mo after 68% keep · $6,330 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.8 mo [3.0-6.5], measured ONLY among the 28% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,309 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $47 @ 81% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.96/sh now → $1.38 mid-life (likely $1.12–$1.98) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.23/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.15/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 300 simulated challenges: the $42 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $43 (overshoots $0.87). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $42.50 is $24 below CC-SS $66.41: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.23 collected) or spot ≥ $42.74 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $42)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.95 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.41, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-65,970 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$67,448 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $42.50): -$47,361 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-45,884 (+$20,086 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,324 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-44,560, the opportunity cost of earning $1,725/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $44.65 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,840, position total $-52,368 (+$13,602 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 18 × $41 | 16 Oct | 8d | 10.6% | 84%hist 87% | 32%hist 31% | +4pp | $702 | $2,632 | -$1,286 | $45,037 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $41 10.6% OTM over spot $37.06 16 Oct 2026 (8d, $0.41 mid) = $702 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,632/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $41) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $41.41) 86% EV / mo +$1,074 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 28% whole by 9mo vs 24% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,146/mo median; plan ~$779/mo after 68% keep · $9,244 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.3 mo [2.4-6.5], measured ONLY among the 28% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,637 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $47 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.84/sh now → $1.30 mid-life (likely $1.19–$1.96) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.91/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 645 simulated challenges: the $41 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $42 (overshoots $0.85). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $41 is $25 below CC-SS $66.41: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.39 collected) or spot ≥ $41.41 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $41)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.95 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.41, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-65,970 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$67,448 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $41): -$45,037 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $65): -$280 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-43,840 (+$22,130 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,324 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-42,516, the opportunity cost of earning $2,632/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $44.65 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,868, position total $-54,394 (+$11,576 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 19 × $40 | 16 Oct | 8d | 7.9% | 79%hist 83% | 44%hist 40% | +9pp | $1,045 | $3,919 | — | $49,135 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $40 7.9% OTM over spot $37.06 16 Oct 2026 (8d, $0.56 mid) = $1,045 credit for the 8d cycle → $3,919/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $40) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $40.56) 82% EV / mo +$1,349 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 36% whole by 9mo vs 28% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,580/mo median; plan ~$1,075/mo after 68% keep · $12,389 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.3 mo [2.6-6.2], measured ONLY among the 36% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 31% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,319 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $46 @ 84% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.76/sh now → $1.24 mid-life (likely $1.28–$2.02) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.69/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 934 simulated challenges: the $40 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $41 (overshoots $0.84). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $40 is $26 below CC-SS $66.41: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.55 collected) or spot ≥ $40.56 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $40)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.95 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.41, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-65,970 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$67,448 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $40): -$49,135 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $65): -$140 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-47,798 (+$18,172 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,324 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-46,474, the opportunity cost of earning $3,919/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $44.65 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,790, position total $-56,317 (+$9,653 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 19 × $38 | 16 Oct | 8d | 2.5% | 62%hist 65% | 79%hist 68% | +9pp | $2,090 | $7,838 | +$3,919 | $51,890 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $38 2.5% OTM over spot $37.06 16 Oct 2026 (8d, $1.10 mid) = $2,090 credit for the 8d cycle → $7,838/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $38) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $39.10) 72% EV / mo +$1,653 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 34% whole by 9mo vs 25% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~8.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,236/mo median; plan ~$1,521/mo after 68% keep · $17,692 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.2 mo [2.9-5.9], measured ONLY among the 34% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 63% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$71 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $47 @ 91% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.61/sh now → $1.14 mid-life (likely $1.48–$2.10) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.04/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,880 simulated challenges: the $38 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $39 (overshoots $0.84). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $38 is $28 below CC-SS $66.41: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.10 collected) or spot ≥ $39.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $38)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.95 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.41, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-65,970 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$67,448 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $38): -$51,890 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $65): -$140 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-50,553 (+$15,417 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,324 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-49,229, the opportunity cost of earning $7,838/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $44.65 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,545, position total $-59,072 (+$6,898 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 20 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.149 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$67,448 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,324
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $40 | 8d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.55 | 19/20 | $3,919 | $3,614 | 79% | 82% | +$1,349 | -$49,135 | 358.7% | $-47,798 (vs do-nothing $-46,474) |
| $39.50 | 8d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.65 | 16/20 | $3,900 | $3,601 | 75% | 80% | +$1,199 | -$42,017 | 306.7% | $-41,100 (vs do-nothing $-39,776) |
| $40 | 15d | 23 Oct 2026 | $1.00 | 20/20 | $4,000 | $3,693 | 73% | 79% | +$1,087 | -$50,821 | 371.0% | $-49,344 (vs do-nothing $-48,020) |
| $39 | 8d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.74 | 15/20 | $4,162 | $3,866 | 71% | 77% | +$948 | -$40,006 | 292.0% | $-39,229 (vs do-nothing $-37,905) |
| $40 | 22d | 30 Oct 2026 | $1.44 | 20/20 | $3,927 | $3,620 | 70% | 77% | +$1,006 | -$49,941 | 364.5% | $-48,464 (vs do-nothing $-47,140) |
| $39.50 | 15d | 23 Oct 2026 | $1.11 | 18/20 | $3,996 | $3,693 | 70% | 77% | +$958 | -$46,441 | 339.0% | $-45,244 (vs do-nothing $-43,920) |
| $39 | 15d | 23 Oct 2026 | $1.26 | 16/20 | $4,032 | $3,733 | 67% | 75% | +$906 | -$41,841 | 305.4% | $-40,924 (vs do-nothing $-39,600) |
| $38.50 | 8d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.91 | 12/20 | $4,095 | $3,804 | 66% | 74% | +$853 | -$32,401 | 236.5% | $-32,044 (vs do-nothing $-30,720) |
| $39 | 22d | 30 Oct 2026 | $1.72 | 17/20 | $3,987 | $3,686 | 65% | 74% | +$856 | -$43,674 | 318.8% | $-42,617 (vs do-nothing $-41,293) |
| $38.50 | 15d | 23 Oct 2026 | $1.42 | 14/20 | $3,976 | $3,681 | 64% | 73% | +$815 | -$37,087 | 270.7% | $-36,450 (vs do-nothing $-35,126) |
| $38 | 8d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.10 | 10/20 | $4,125 | $3,838 | 62% | 72% | +$870 | -$27,311 | 199.3% | $-27,234 (vs do-nothing $-25,910) |
| $38 | 15d | 23 Oct 2026 | $1.62 | 13/20 | $4,212 | $3,919 | 60% | 71% | +$828 | -$34,828 | 254.2% | $-34,331 (vs do-nothing $-33,007) |
| $38 | 22d | 30 Oct 2026 | $2.06 | 14/20 | $3,933 | $3,638 | 59% | 71% | +$697 | -$36,891 | 269.3% | $-36,254 (vs do-nothing $-34,930) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $37.50 | 8d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.26 | 9/20 | $4,252 | $3,968 | 57% | 69% | +$683 | -$24,886 | 181.6% | $-24,949 (vs do-nothing $-23,625) |
| $37.50 | 15d | 23 Oct 2026 | $1.82 | 11/20 | $4,004 | $3,715 | 56% | 70% | +$712 | -$29,800 | 217.5% | $-29,583 (vs do-nothing $-28,259) |
| $37 | 22d | 30 Oct 2026 | $2.48 | 12/20 | $4,058 | $3,767 | 53% | 68% | +$601 | -$32,317 | 235.9% | $-31,960 (vs do-nothing $-30,636) |
| $37 | 15d | 23 Oct 2026 | $2.01 | 10/20 | $4,020 | $3,733 | 52% | 68% | +$590 | -$27,401 | 200.0% | $-27,324 (vs do-nothing $-26,000) |
| $37 | 8d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.50 | 7/20 | $3,938 | $3,657 | 51% | 67% | +$557 | -$19,537 | 142.6% | $-19,881 (vs do-nothing $-18,557) |
| $36.50 | 15d | 23 Oct 2026 | $2.25 | 9/20 | $4,050 | $3,765 | 48% | 66% | +$524 | -$24,895 | 181.7% | $-24,958 (vs do-nothing $-23,634) |
| $36.50 | 8d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.75 | 6/20 | $3,938 | $3,659 | 46% | 65% | +$492 | -$16,896 | 123.3% | $-17,380 (vs do-nothing $-16,056) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.