20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $63.43 | CC-SS: $66.17 (banked floor $64.00) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $107,700 | (ND $6.85 + SW $47) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $6,771/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $443/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-69,190 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Status | Leg | Credit/sh | Credit | Opened | Closed | Close/sh | Banked | Account | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLOSED | 1x $45C 9 Oct 2026 | $0.20 | $20 | 2026-10-07 | 2026-10-08 | $0.03 | $17 | U18827291 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $45C 9 Oct 2026 | $0.20 | $20 | 2026-10-07 | 2026-10-08 | $0.03 | $17 | U18827291 | execution |
| CLOSED | 6x $45C 9 Oct 2026 | $0.20 | $120 | 2026-10-07 | 2026-10-08 | $0.03 | $102 | U18827291 | execution |
| CLOSED | 7x $45C 9 Oct 2026 | $0.20 | $140 | 2026-10-07 | 2026-10-08 | $0.03 | $119 | U18827291 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $45C 9 Oct 2026 | $0.20 | $20 | 2026-10-07 | 2026-10-08 | $0.03 | $17 | U18827291 | execution |
| CLOSED | 2x $45C 9 Oct 2026 | $0.20 | $40 | 2026-10-07 | 2026-10-08 | $0.03 | $34 | U18827291 | execution |
| CLOSED | 2x $45C 9 Oct 2026 | $0.20 | $40 | 2026-10-07 | 2026-10-08 | $0.03 | $34 | U18827291 | execution |
| CLOSED | 6x $49C 9 Oct 2026 | $0.27 | $164 | 2026-10-05 | 2026-10-06 | $0.06 | $128 | U18827291 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 5x $49C 9 Oct 2026 | $0.27 | $137 | 2026-10-05 | 2026-10-06 | $0.06 | $107 | U18827291 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 9x $49C 9 Oct 2026 | $0.27 | $246 | 2026-10-05 | 2026-10-06 | $0.06 | $192 | U18827291 | snapshot |
| EXPIRED | 20x $48C 25 Sep 2026 | $0.23 | $466 | 2026-09-25 | 2026-09-28 | $0.00 | $466 | U18827291 | snapshot |
| UNKNOWN | 20x $58C 2 Oct 2026 | $0.35 | $706 | 2026-09-22 | 2026-09-25 | $0.35 | $0 | U18827291 | snapshot |
| UNKNOWN | 20x $50C 25 Sep 2026 | $0.39 | $788 | 2026-09-18 | 2026-09-22 | $0.39 | $0 | U18827291 | snapshot |
| ASSIGNED | 20x $40C 4 Sep 2026 | $0.24 | $486 | 2026-09-01 | 2026-09-08 | $0.00 | $486 | U18827291 | snapshot |
| EXPIRED | 20x $49C 28 Aug 2026 | $0.92 | $1,840 | 2026-08-21 | 2026-08-31 | $0.00 | $1,840 | U18827291 | snapshot |
| UNKNOWN | 20x $54C 28 Aug 2026 | $1.18 | $2,360 | 2026-08-18 | 2026-08-21 | $1.18 | $0 | U18827291 | execution |
| CLOSED | 6x $70C 18 Sep 2026 | $0.99 | $591 | 2026-08-14 | 2026-08-18 | $0.77 | $129 | U18827291 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 8x $70C 18 Sep 2026 | $0.99 | $788 | 2026-08-14 | 2026-08-18 | $0.77 | $172 | U18827291 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 6x $70C 18 Sep 2026 | $0.99 | $591 | 2026-08-14 | 2026-08-18 | $0.77 | $129 | U18827291 | snapshot |
| UNKNOWN | 20x $50C 21 Aug 2026 | $0.51 | $1,020 | 2026-08-13 | 2026-08-14 | $0.51 | $0 | U18827291 | execution |
| EXPIRED | 20x $40.5C 31 Jul 2026 | $0.58 | $1,153 | 2026-07-28 | 2026-08-03 | $0.00 | $1,153 | U18827291 | snapshot |
| UNKNOWN | 20x $47.5C 31 Jul 2026 | $0.44 | $877 | 2026-07-27 | 2026-07-28 | $0.44 | $0 | U18827291 | snapshot |
| UNKNOWN | 20x $55C 7 Aug 2026 | $0.85 | $1,710 | 2026-07-20 | 2026-07-27 | $0.85 | $0 | U18827291 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $42C 24 Jul 2026 | $0.67 | $67 | 2026-07-17 | 2026-07-20 | $1.30 | $-63 | U18827291 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 5x $42C 24 Jul 2026 | $0.67 | $336 | 2026-07-17 | 2026-07-20 | $1.31 | $-319 | U18827291 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 5x $42C 24 Jul 2026 | $0.67 | $336 | 2026-07-17 | 2026-07-20 | $1.31 | $-319 | U18827291 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 2x $42C 24 Jul 2026 | $0.67 | $134 | 2026-07-17 | 2026-07-20 | $1.30 | $-126 | U18827291 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 2x $42C 24 Jul 2026 | $0.67 | $134 | 2026-07-17 | 2026-07-20 | $1.30 | $-126 | U18827291 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 4x $42C 24 Jul 2026 | $0.67 | $269 | 2026-07-17 | 2026-07-20 | $1.30 | $-251 | U18827291 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 1x $42C 24 Jul 2026 | $0.67 | $67 | 2026-07-17 | 2026-07-20 | $1.30 | $-63 | U18827291 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 20x $43C 17 Jul 2026 | $0.31 | $614 | 2026-07-16 | 2026-07-16 | $0.05 | $514 | U18827291 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 20x $48.5C 10 Jul 2026 | $0.29 | $571 | 2026-07-09 | 2026-07-10 | $0.06 | $451 | U18827291 | seed |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 16 Oct 2026 · 7d | 18 × $38 | 79% | $3,471 | $1,298 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 18 × $44 | 16 Oct | 7d | 24.4% | 97%hist 96% | 6%hist 3% | +1pp | $108 | $463 | -$3,009 | $39,791 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 ร $44 24.4% OTM over spot $35.36 16 Oct 2026 (7d, $0.07 mid) = $108 credit for the 7d cycle โ $463/mo projected Survival (stays โค $44) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays โค $44.07) 97% EV / mo +$287 ๐ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 27% whole by 9mo vs 26% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-79/mo median; plan ~$-54/mo after 68% keep · $-658 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.6 mo [2.4-5.7], measured ONLY among the 27% of futures that got whole ๐ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,375 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 6 Nov 2026) $53 @ 83% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.95/sh now โ $1.38 mid-life โ โ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.32/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays โค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $44 is $22 below CC-SS $66.17: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.06 collected) or spot โฅ $44.07 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โ $44)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic ยท fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ CC-SS $66.17, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-69,190 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$70,115 โ CC assignment net of premium (18 ร $44): -$39,791 โ Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 ร $65): -$229 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-39,095 (+$30,095 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,367 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-37,728, the opportunity cost of earning $463/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (โ $44.56 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$900, position total $-49,147 (+$20,043 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | ๐ก safe yield | 20 × $40.50 | 16 Oct | 7d | 14.5% | 91%hist 96% | 18%hist 13% | +3pp | $320 | $1,371 | -$2,100 | $51,013 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 ร $40.50 14.5% OTM over spot $35.36 16 Oct 2026 (7d, $0.17 mid) = $320 credit for the 7d cycle โ $1,371/mo projected Survival (stays โค $40.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays โค $40.67) 92% EV / mo +$613 ๐ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 28% whole by 9mo vs 25% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $466/mo median; plan ~$317/mo after 68% keep · $3,664 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.6 mo [3.3-6.5], measured ONLY among the 28% of futures that got whole ๐ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,063 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 6 Nov 2026) $48 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.68/sh now โ $1.19 mid-life (likely $0.99โ$1.62) โ โ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours ๐ Across 295 simulated challenges: the $40 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $41 (overshoots $0.83). The [P25โP75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays โค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $40.50 is $26 below CC-SS $66.17: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.16 collected) or spot โฅ $40.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โ $40)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic ยท fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ CC-SS $66.17, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-69,190 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$70,115 โ CC assignment net of premium (20 ร $40.50): -$51,013 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-50,087 (+$19,103 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,367 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-48,720, the opportunity cost of earning $1,371/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (โ $44.56 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,800, position total $-56,051 (+$13,139 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 18 × $39 | 16 Oct | 7d | 10.3% | 85%hist 87% | 31%hist 31% | +4pp | $522 | $2,237 | -$1,234 | $48,377 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 ร $39 10.3% OTM over spot $35.36 16 Oct 2026 (7d, $0.30 mid) = $522 credit for the 7d cycle โ $2,237/mo projected Survival (stays โค $39) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays โค $39.30) 87% EV / mo +$782 ๐ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 28% whole by 9mo vs 24% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $862/mo median; plan ~$586/mo after 68% keep · $6,807 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.5 mo [3.2-6.3], measured ONLY among the 28% of futures that got whole ๐ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 20% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,485 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 6 Nov 2026) $48 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.58/sh now โ $1.12 mid-life (likely $1.03โ$1.71) โ โ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.29/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.83/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours ๐ Across 610 simulated challenges: the $39 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $40 (overshoots $0.81). The [P25โP75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays โค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $39 is $27 below CC-SS $66.17: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.29 collected) or spot โฅ $39.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โ $39)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic ยท fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ CC-SS $66.17, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-69,190 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$70,115 โ CC assignment net of premium (18 ร $39): -$48,377 โ Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 ร $65): -$229 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-47,681 (+$21,509 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,367 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-46,314, the opportunity cost of earning $2,237/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (โ $44.56 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,486, position total $-57,733 (+$11,457 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | ๐ฏ 50% normal | 18 × $38 | 16 Oct | 7d | 7.5% | 79%hist 83% | 44%hist 40% | +5pp | $810 | $3,471 | — | $49,889 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 ร $38 7.5% OTM over spot $35.36 16 Oct 2026 (7d, $0.47 mid) = $810 credit for the 7d cycle โ $3,471/mo projected Survival (stays โค $38) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays โค $38.48) 82% EV / mo +$1,019 ๐ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 25% whole by 9mo vs 20% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,230/mo median; plan ~$837/mo after 68% keep · $9,965 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.5 mo [3.3-6.1], measured ONLY among the 25% of futures that got whole ๐ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,108 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 6 Nov 2026) $48 @ 88% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.51/sh now โ $1.07 mid-life (likely $1.13โ$1.74) โ โ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.62/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours ๐ Across 1,025 simulated challenges: the $38 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $39 (overshoots $0.80). The [P25โP75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays โค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $38 is $28 below CC-SS $66.17: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.45 collected) or spot โฅ $38.48 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โ $38)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic ยท fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ CC-SS $66.17, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-69,190 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$70,115 โ CC assignment net of premium (18 ร $38): -$49,889 โ Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 ร $65): -$229 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-49,193 (+$19,997 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,367 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-47,826, the opportunity cost of earning $3,471/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (โ $44.56 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,998, position total $-59,245 (+$9,945 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 20 × $36.50 | 16 Oct | 7d | 3.2% | 65%hist 65% | 73%hist 68% | +7pp | $1,620 | $6,943 | +$3,471 | $57,713 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 ร $36.50 3.2% OTM over spot $35.36 16 Oct 2026 (7d, $0.85 mid) = $1,620 credit for the 7d cycle โ $6,943/mo projected Survival (stays โค $36.50) 65% Breach risk 35% POP (stays โค $37.35) 73% EV / mo +$1,156 ๐ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 28% whole by 9mo vs 20% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~7.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,959/mo median; plan ~$1,332/mo after 68% keep · $15,975 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.5 mo [2.7-6.4], measured ONLY among the 28% of futures that got whole ๐ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 56% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$367 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 6 Nov 2026) $47 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.40/sh now โ $0.99 mid-life (likely $1.28โ$1.81) โ โ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.81/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours ๐ Across 1,677 simulated challenges: the $36 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $37 (overshoots $0.76). The [P25โP75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays โค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $36.50 is $30 below CC-SS $66.17: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.81 collected) or spot โฅ $37.35 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โ $36)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic ยท fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ CC-SS $66.17, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-69,190 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$70,115 โ CC assignment net of premium (20 ร $36.50): -$57,713 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-56,787 (+$12,403 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,367 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-55,420, the opportunity cost of earning $6,943/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (โ $44.56 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$14,500, position total $-62,751 (+$6,439 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 20 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary ๐ฏ is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.138 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$70,115 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,367
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Per cycle | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | Touch | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Recover | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $38 | 7d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.45 | 18/20 | $810 | $3,471 | $3,037 | 79%hist 83% | 44%hist 40% | 82% | +$1,019 | -$49,889 | 364.2% | 7.4mo | $-49,193 (vs do-nothing $-47,826) |
| $37.50 | 7d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.54 | 15/20 | $810 | $3,471 | $3,050 | 75%hist 83% | 53%hist 46% | 79% | +$827 | -$42,190 | 308.0% | 6.2mo | $-41,837 (vs do-nothing $-40,470) |
| $38 | 14d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.87 | 19/20 | $1,653 | $3,542 | $3,104 | 73%hist 83% | 57%hist 46% | 78% | +$778 | -$51,863 | 378.6% | 7.7mo | $-51,052 (vs do-nothing $-49,685) |
| $37 | 7d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.67 | 12/20 | $804 | $3,446 | $3,037 | 70%hist 65% | 62%hist 56% | 76% | +$725 | -$34,196 | 249.6% | 5.0mo | $-34,187 (vs do-nothing $-32,820) |
| $38 | 21d | 30 Oct 2026 | $1.29 | 19/20 | $2,451 | $3,501 | $3,063 | 70%hist 65% | 64%hist 56% | 76% | +$707 | -$51,065 | 372.7% | 7.5mo | $-50,254 (vs do-nothing $-48,887) |
| $37.50 | 14d | 23 Oct 2026 | $1.01 | 16/20 | $1,616 | $3,463 | $3,037 | 69%hist 65% | 64%hist 56% | 76% | +$708 | -$44,250 | 323.0% | 6.5mo | $-43,783 (vs do-nothing $-42,416) |
| $38 | 28d | 6 Nov 2026 | $1.82 | 18/20 | $3,276 | $3,510 | $3,076 | 67%hist 65% | 71%hist 68% | 75% | +$544 | -$47,423 | 346.2% | 7.0mo | $-46,727 (vs do-nothing $-45,360) |
| $37 | 14d | 23 Oct 2026 | $1.16 | 14/20 | $1,624 | $3,480 | $3,063 | 66%hist 65% | 72%hist 68% | 74% | +$634 | -$39,209 | 286.2% | 5.8mo | $-38,971 (vs do-nothing $-37,604) |
| $36.50 | 7d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.81 | 10/20 | $810 | $3,471 | $3,071 | 65%hist 65% | 73%hist 68% | 73% | +$578 | -$28,856 | 210.6% | 4.3mo | $-29,077 (vs do-nothing $-27,710) |
| $37 | 21d | 30 Oct 2026 | $1.58 | 16/20 | $2,528 | $3,611 | $3,186 | 64%hist 65% | 77%hist 68% | 73% | +$579 | -$44,138 | 322.2% | 6.5mo | $-43,671 (vs do-nothing $-42,304) |
| $37 | 28d | 6 Nov 2026 | $2.16 | 15/20 | $3,240 | $3,471 | $3,050 | 63%hist 65% | 81%hist 79% | 73% | +$472 | -$40,510 | 295.7% | 6.0mo | $-40,157 (vs do-nothing $-38,790) |
| $36.50 | 14d | 23 Oct 2026 | $1.31 | 13/20 | $1,703 | $3,649 | $3,236 | 62%hist 65% | 80%hist 68% | 72% | +$541 | -$36,863 | 269.1% | 5.4mo | $-36,740 (vs do-nothing $-35,373) |
| $36 | 7d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.00 | 8/20 | $800 | $3,429 | $3,037 | 59%hist 68% | 84%hist 79% | 70% | +$503 | -$23,333 | 170.3% | 3.4mo | $-23,783 (vs do-nothing $-22,416) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Per cycle | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | Touch | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Recover | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $36 | 14d | 23 Oct 2026 | $1.52 | 11/20 | $1,672 | $3,583 | $3,179 | 58%hist 68% | 88%hist 79% | 70% | +$503 | -$31,511 | 230.0% | 4.7mo | $-31,617 (vs do-nothing $-30,250) |
| $36 | 21d | 30 Oct 2026 | $1.98 | 12/20 | $2,376 | $3,394 | $2,986 | 58%hist 68% | 91%hist 90% | 70% | +$484 | -$33,824 | 246.9% | 5.0mo | $-33,815 (vs do-nothing $-32,448) |
| $36 | 28d | 6 Nov 2026 | $2.60 | 13/20 | $3,380 | $3,621 | $3,209 | 58%hist 68% | 92%hist 90% | 70% | +$482 | -$35,836 | 261.6% | 5.3mo | $-35,713 (vs do-nothing $-34,346) |
| $35 | 28d | 6 Nov 2026 | $2.99 | 11/20 | $3,289 | $3,524 | $3,120 | 52%hist 68% | 100%hist 90% | 68% | +$339 | -$30,994 | 226.2% | 4.6mo | $-31,100 (vs do-nothing $-29,733) |
| $35 | 21d | 30 Oct 2026 | $2.40 | 10/20 | $2,400 | $3,429 | $3,029 | 51%hist 68% | 100%hist 90% | 67% | +$356 | -$28,766 | 210.0% | 4.2mo | $-28,987 (vs do-nothing $-27,620) |
| $35 | 14d | 23 Oct 2026 | $1.94 | 9/20 | $1,746 | $3,741 | $3,346 | 50% | 100%hist 90% | 66% | +$337 | -$26,304 | 192.0% | 3.9mo | $-26,639 (vs do-nothing $-25,272) |
| $35 | 7d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.43 | 6/20 | $858 | $3,677 | $3,294 | 48% | 100%hist 90% | 65% | +$292 | -$17,842 | 130.2% | 2.6mo | $-18,521 (vs do-nothing $-17,154) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Per cycle | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | Touch | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Recover | Total P&L @ SS | Why not eligible |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $65 | 28d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.01 | 20/20 | $20 | $21 | $-421 | 99+%hist 96% | 0%hist 3% | 100% | +$21 | -$2,313 | 16.9% | 0.3mo | $-1,387 (vs do-nothing $-20) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $58 | 28d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.02 | 20/20 | $40 | $43 | $-400 | 99+%hist 96% | 1%hist 3% | 100% | +$38 | -$16,293 | 118.9% | 2.4mo | $-15,367 (vs do-nothing $-14,000) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $65 | 7d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.01 | 20/20 | $20 | $86 | $-357 | 99+%hist 96% | 1%hist 3% | 100% | +$57 | -$2,313 | 16.9% | 0.3mo | $-1,387 (vs do-nothing $-20) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $65 | 14d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.02 | 20/20 | $40 | $86 | $-357 | 99+%hist 96% | 1%hist 3% | 100% | +$67 | -$2,293 | 16.7% | 0.3mo | $-1,367 (vs do-nothing +$0) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $60 | 7d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.01 | 20/20 | $20 | $86 | $-357 | 99%hist 96% | 1%hist 3% | 99% | +$40 | -$12,313 | 89.9% | 1.8mo | $-11,387 (vs do-nothing $-10,020) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $65 | 21d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.01 | 20/20 | $20 | $29 | $-414 | 99%hist 96% | 1%hist 3% | 99% | +$8 | -$2,313 | 16.9% | 0.3mo | $-1,387 (vs do-nothing $-20) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $49 | 14d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.06 | 20/20 | $120 | $257 | $-186 | 99%hist 96% | 1%hist 3% | 99% | +$244 | -$34,213 | 249.7% | 5.1mo | $-33,287 (vs do-nothing $-31,920) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $58 | 7d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.01 | 20/20 | $20 | $86 | $-357 | 99%hist 96% | 1%hist 3% | 99% | +$35 | -$16,313 | 119.1% | 2.4mo | $-15,387 (vs do-nothing $-14,020) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $60 | 14d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.03 | 20/20 | $60 | $129 | $-314 | 99%hist 96% | 1%hist 3% | 99% | +$99 | -$12,273 | 89.6% | 1.8mo | $-11,347 (vs do-nothing $-9,980) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $57 | 7d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.01 | 20/20 | $20 | $86 | $-357 | 99%hist 96% | 1%hist 3% | 99% | +$34 | -$18,313 | 133.7% | 2.7mo | $-17,387 (vs do-nothing $-16,020) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $55 | 7d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.02 | 20/20 | $40 | $171 | $-271 | 99%hist 96% | 2%hist 3% | 99% | +$116 | -$22,293 | 162.7% | 3.3mo | $-21,367 (vs do-nothing $-20,000) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $58 | 14d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.03 | 20/20 | $60 | $129 | $-314 | 99%hist 96% | 2%hist 3% | 99% | +$93 | -$16,273 | 118.8% | 2.4mo | $-15,347 (vs do-nothing $-13,980) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $54 | 7d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.01 | 20/20 | $20 | $86 | $-357 | 99%hist 96% | 2%hist 3% | 99% | +$29 | -$24,313 | 177.5% | 3.6mo | $-23,387 (vs do-nothing $-22,020) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $53 | 7d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.01 | 20/20 | $20 | $86 | $-357 | 99%hist 96% | 2%hist 3% | 99% | +$27 | -$26,313 | 192.1% | 3.9mo | $-25,387 (vs do-nothing $-24,020) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $57 | 14d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.01 | 20/20 | $20 | $43 | $-400 | 99%hist 96% | 2%hist 3% | 99% | +$3 | -$18,313 | 133.7% | 2.7mo | $-17,387 (vs do-nothing $-16,020) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $52 | 7d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.01 | 20/20 | $20 | $86 | $-357 | 99%hist 96% | 2%hist 3% | 99% | +$24 | -$28,313 | 206.7% | 4.2mo | $-27,387 (vs do-nothing $-26,020) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $48 | 14d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.08 | 20/20 | $160 | $343 | $-100 | 99%hist 96% | 2%hist 3% | 99% | +$320 | -$36,173 | 264.0% | 5.3mo | $-35,247 (vs do-nothing $-33,880) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $56 | 14d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.01 | 20/20 | $20 | $43 | $-400 | 99%hist 96% | 2%hist 3% | 99% | $-1 | -$20,313 | 148.3% | 3.0mo | $-19,387 (vs do-nothing $-18,020) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $60 | 21d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.05 | 20/20 | $100 | $143 | $-300 | 99%hist 96% | 2%hist 3% | 99% | +$104 | -$12,233 | 89.3% | 1.8mo | $-11,307 (vs do-nothing $-9,940) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $51 | 7d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.02 | 20/20 | $40 | $171 | $-271 | 99%hist 96% | 2%hist 3% | 99% | +$106 | -$30,293 | 221.1% | 4.5mo | $-29,367 (vs do-nothing $-28,000) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $55 | 14d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.01 | 20/20 | $20 | $43 | $-400 | 99%hist 96% | 2%hist 3% | 99% | $-7 | -$22,313 | 162.9% | 3.3mo | $-21,387 (vs do-nothing $-20,020) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $50 | 7d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.03 | 20/20 | $60 | $257 | $-186 | 99%hist 96% | 2%hist 3% | 99% | +$186 | -$32,273 | 235.6% | 4.8mo | $-31,347 (vs do-nothing $-29,980) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $49.50 | 7d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.01 | 20/20 | $20 | $86 | $-357 | 99%hist 96% | 2%hist 3% | 99% | +$12 | -$33,313 | 243.2% | 4.9mo | $-32,387 (vs do-nothing $-31,020) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $47.50 | 14d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.08 | 20/20 | $160 | $343 | $-100 | 99%hist 96% | 2%hist 3% | 99% | +$312 | -$37,173 | 271.3% | 5.5mo | $-36,247 (vs do-nothing $-34,880) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $54 | 14d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.01 | 20/20 | $20 | $43 | $-400 | 99%hist 96% | 3%hist 3% | 99% | $-13 | -$24,313 | 177.5% | 3.6mo | $-23,387 (vs do-nothing $-22,020) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $58 | 21d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.04 | 20/20 | $80 | $114 | $-329 | 99%hist 96% | 3%hist 3% | 99% | +$64 | -$16,253 | 118.6% | 2.4mo | $-15,327 (vs do-nothing $-13,960) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $49 | 7d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.02 | 20/20 | $40 | $171 | $-271 | 99%hist 96% | 3%hist 3% | 99% | +$93 | -$34,293 | 250.3% | 5.1mo | $-33,367 (vs do-nothing $-32,000) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $48.50 | 7d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.01 | 20/20 | $20 | $86 | $-357 | 99%hist 96% | 3%hist 3% | 99% | +$3 | -$35,313 | 257.8% | 5.2mo | $-34,387 (vs do-nothing $-33,020) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $53 | 14d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.05 | 20/20 | $100 | $214 | $-229 | 99%hist 96% | 3%hist 3% | 99% | +$150 | -$26,233 | 191.5% | 3.9mo | $-25,307 (vs do-nothing $-23,940) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $57 | 21d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.03 | 20/20 | $60 | $86 | $-357 | 99%hist 96% | 3%hist 3% | 99% | +$28 | -$18,273 | 133.4% | 2.7mo | $-17,347 (vs do-nothing $-15,980) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $48 | 7d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.02 | 20/20 | $40 | $171 | $-271 | 99%hist 96% | 3%hist 3% | 99% | +$84 | -$36,293 | 264.9% | 5.4mo | $-35,367 (vs do-nothing $-34,000) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $47.50 | 7d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.03 | 20/20 | $60 | $257 | $-186 | 98%hist 96% | 3%hist 3% | 99% | +$163 | -$37,273 | 272.1% | 5.5mo | $-36,347 (vs do-nothing $-34,980) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $52 | 14d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.05 | 20/20 | $100 | $214 | $-229 | 98%hist 96% | 3%hist 3% | 98% | +$140 | -$28,233 | 206.1% | 4.2mo | $-27,307 (vs do-nothing $-25,940) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $56 | 21d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.03 | 20/20 | $60 | $86 | $-357 | 98%hist 96% | 3%hist 3% | 98% | +$19 | -$20,273 | 148.0% | 3.0mo | $-19,347 (vs do-nothing $-17,980) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $47 | 7d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.03 | 20/20 | $60 | $257 | $-186 | 98%hist 96% | 3%hist 3% | 98% | +$156 | -$38,273 | 279.4% | 5.7mo | $-37,347 (vs do-nothing $-35,980) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $55 | 21d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.08 | 20/20 | $160 | $229 | $-214 | 98%hist 96% | 4%hist 3% | 98% | +$152 | -$22,173 | 161.8% | 3.3mo | $-21,247 (vs do-nothing $-19,880) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $46.50 | 7d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.03 | 20/20 | $60 | $257 | $-186 | 98%hist 96% | 4%hist 3% | 98% | +$147 | -$39,273 | 286.7% | 5.8mo | $-38,347 (vs do-nothing $-36,980) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $51 | 14d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.04 | 20/20 | $80 | $171 | $-271 | 98%hist 96% | 4%hist 3% | 98% | +$85 | -$30,253 | 220.8% | 4.5mo | $-29,327 (vs do-nothing $-27,960) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $46 | 7d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.04 | 20/20 | $80 | $343 | $-100 | 98%hist 96% | 4%hist 3% | 98% | +$222 | -$40,253 | 293.8% | 5.9mo | $-39,327 (vs do-nothing $-37,960) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $50 | 14d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.06 | 20/20 | $120 | $257 | $-186 | 98%hist 96% | 4%hist 3% | 98% | +$162 | -$32,213 | 235.1% | 4.8mo | $-31,287 (vs do-nothing $-29,920) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $54 | 21d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.08 | 20/20 | $160 | $229 | $-214 | 98%hist 96% | 4%hist 3% | 98% | +$140 | -$24,173 | 176.4% | 3.6mo | $-23,247 (vs do-nothing $-21,880) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $45.50 | 7d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.04 | 20/20 | $80 | $343 | $-100 | 98%hist 96% | 4%hist 3% | 98% | +$209 | -$41,253 | 301.1% | 6.1mo | $-40,327 (vs do-nothing $-38,960) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $46 | 14d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.12 | 20/20 | $240 | $514 | $71 | 98%hist 96% | 4%hist 3% | 98% | +$442 | -$40,093 | 292.6% | 5.9mo | $-39,167 (vs do-nothing $-37,800) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $53 | 21d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.06 | 20/20 | $120 | $171 | $-271 | 98%hist 96% | 5%hist 3% | 98% | +$69 | -$26,213 | 191.3% | 3.9mo | $-25,287 (vs do-nothing $-23,920) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $45 | 7d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.05 | 20/20 | $100 | $429 | $-14 | 98%hist 96% | 5%hist 3% | 98% | +$278 | -$42,233 | 308.3% | 6.2mo | $-41,307 (vs do-nothing $-39,940) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $57 | 28d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.03 | 20/20 | $60 | $64 | $-379 | 98%hist 96% | 5%hist 3% | 98% | $-47 | -$18,273 | 133.4% | 2.7mo | $-17,347 (vs do-nothing $-15,980) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $45.50 | 14d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.11 | 20/20 | $220 | $471 | $29 | 97%hist 96% | 5%hist 3% | 98% | +$377 | -$41,113 | 300.1% | 6.1mo | $-40,187 (vs do-nothing $-38,820) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $52 | 21d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.08 | 20/20 | $160 | $229 | $-214 | 97%hist 96% | 5%hist 3% | 97% | +$108 | -$28,173 | 205.6% | 4.2mo | $-27,247 (vs do-nothing $-25,880) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $44.50 | 7d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.05 | 20/20 | $100 | $429 | $-14 | 97%hist 96% | 5%hist 3% | 97% | +$258 | -$43,233 | 315.6% | 6.4mo | $-42,307 (vs do-nothing $-40,940) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $56 | 28d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.05 | 20/20 | $100 | $107 | $-336 | 97%hist 96% | 6%hist 3% | 97% | $-24 | -$20,233 | 147.7% | 3.0mo | $-19,307 (vs do-nothing $-17,940) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $44 | 7d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.06 | 20/20 | $120 | $514 | $71 | 97%hist 96% | 6%hist 3% | 97% | +$319 | -$44,213 | 322.7% | 6.5mo | $-43,287 (vs do-nothing $-41,920) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $51 | 21d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.09 | 20/20 | $180 | $257 | $-186 | 97%hist 96% | 6%hist 3% | 97% | +$115 | -$30,153 | 220.1% | 4.5mo | $-29,227 (vs do-nothing $-27,860) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $55 | 28d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.12 | 20/20 | $240 | $257 | $-186 | 97%hist 96% | 7%hist 3% | 97% | +$103 | -$22,093 | 161.3% | 3.3mo | $-21,167 (vs do-nothing $-19,800) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $45 | 14d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.15 | 20/20 | $300 | $643 | $200 | 97%hist 96% | 6%hist 3% | 97% | +$520 | -$42,033 | 306.8% | 6.2mo | $-41,107 (vs do-nothing $-39,740) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $47 | 14d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.10 | 20/20 | $200 | $429 | $-14 | 97%hist 96% | 7%hist 3% | 97% | +$261 | -$38,133 | 278.3% | 5.6mo | $-37,207 (vs do-nothing $-35,840) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $43.50 | 7d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.05 | 20/20 | $100 | $429 | $-14 | 97%hist 96% | 7%hist 3% | 97% | +$201 | -$45,233 | 330.2% | 6.7mo | $-44,307 (vs do-nothing $-42,940) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $50 | 21d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.14 | 20/20 | $280 | $400 | $-43 | 97%hist 96% | 7%hist 3% | 97% | +$231 | -$32,053 | 234.0% | 4.7mo | $-31,127 (vs do-nothing $-29,760) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $54 | 28d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.08 | 20/20 | $160 | $171 | $-271 | 96%hist 96% | 7%hist 3% | 97% | $-10 | -$24,173 | 176.4% | 3.6mo | $-23,247 (vs do-nothing $-21,880) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $46.50 | 14d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.10 | 20/20 | $200 | $429 | $-14 | 96%hist 96% | 8%hist 3% | 97% | +$238 | -$39,133 | 285.6% | 5.8mo | $-38,207 (vs do-nothing $-36,840) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $44.50 | 14d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.14 | 20/20 | $280 | $600 | $157 | 96%hist 96% | 8%hist 3% | 96% | +$440 | -$43,053 | 314.3% | 6.4mo | $-42,127 (vs do-nothing $-40,760) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $43 | 7d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.07 | 20/20 | $140 | $600 | $157 | 96%hist 96% | 8%hist 3% | 96% | +$331 | -$46,193 | 337.2% | 6.8mo | $-45,267 (vs do-nothing $-43,900) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $53 | 28d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.21 | 20/20 | $420 | $450 | $7 | 96%hist 96% | 9%hist 3% | 96% | +$237 | -$25,913 | 189.1% | 3.8mo | $-24,987 (vs do-nothing $-23,620) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $49 | 21d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.15 | 20/20 | $300 | $429 | $-14 | 96%hist 96% | 9%hist 3% | 96% | +$225 | -$34,033 | 248.4% | 5.0mo | $-33,107 (vs do-nothing $-31,740) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $42.50 | 7d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.08 | 20/20 | $160 | $686 | $243 | 96%hist 96% | 9%hist 3% | 96% | +$364 | -$47,173 | 344.3% | 7.0mo | $-46,247 (vs do-nothing $-44,880) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $52 | 28d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.19 | 20/20 | $380 | $407 | $-36 | 95%hist 96% | 10%hist 3% | 96% | +$156 | -$27,953 | 204.0% | 4.1mo | $-27,027 (vs do-nothing $-25,660) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $48 | 21d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.16 | 20/20 | $320 | $457 | $14 | 95%hist 96% | 10%hist 13% | 95% | +$208 | -$36,013 | 262.9% | 5.3mo | $-35,087 (vs do-nothing $-33,720) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $42 | 7d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.10 | 20/20 | $200 | $857 | $414 | 95%hist 96% | 11%hist 13% | 95% | +$467 | -$48,133 | 351.3% | 7.1mo | $-47,207 (vs do-nothing $-45,840) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $51 | 28d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.14 | 20/20 | $280 | $300 | $-143 | 95%hist 96% | 11%hist 13% | 95% | +$3 | -$30,053 | 219.4% | 4.4mo | $-29,127 (vs do-nothing $-27,760) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $47 | 21d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.20 | 20/20 | $400 | $571 | $129 | 94%hist 96% | 12%hist 13% | 95% | +$264 | -$37,933 | 276.9% | 5.6mo | $-37,007 (vs do-nothing $-35,640) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $50 | 28d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.32 | 20/20 | $640 | $686 | $243 | 94%hist 96% | 13%hist 13% | 94% | +$334 | -$31,693 | 231.3% | 4.7mo | $-30,767 (vs do-nothing $-29,400) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $41.50 | 7d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.11 | 20/20 | $220 | $943 | $500 | 94%hist 96% | 13%hist 13% | 94% | +$462 | -$49,113 | 358.5% | 7.3mo | $-48,187 (vs do-nothing $-46,820) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $43 | 14d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.21 | 20/20 | $420 | $900 | $457 | 94%hist 96% | 13%hist 13% | 94% | +$561 | -$45,913 | 335.1% | 6.8mo | $-44,987 (vs do-nothing $-43,620) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $44 | 14d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.14 | 20/20 | $280 | $600 | $157 | 94%hist 96% | 13%hist 13% | 94% | +$197 | -$44,053 | 321.6% | 6.5mo | $-43,127 (vs do-nothing $-41,760) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $46 | 21d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.26 | 20/20 | $520 | $743 | $300 | 93%hist 96% | 14%hist 13% | 94% | +$358 | -$39,813 | 290.6% | 5.9mo | $-38,887 (vs do-nothing $-37,520) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $49 | 28d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.35 | 20/20 | $700 | $750 | $307 | 93%hist 96% | 15%hist 13% | 94% | +$332 | -$33,633 | 245.5% | 5.0mo | $-32,707 (vs do-nothing $-31,340) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $43.50 | 14d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.19 | 20/20 | $380 | $814 | $371 | 93%hist 96% | 15%hist 13% | 93% | +$358 | -$44,953 | 328.1% | 6.6mo | $-44,027 (vs do-nothing $-42,660) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $41 | 7d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.13 | 20/20 | $260 | $1,114 | $671 | 93%hist 96% | 15%hist 13% | 93% | +$514 | -$50,073 | 365.5% | 7.4mo | $-49,147 (vs do-nothing $-47,780) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $48 | 28d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.35 | 20/20 | $700 | $750 | $307 | 92%hist 96% | 17%hist 13% | 93% | +$252 | -$35,633 | 260.1% | 5.3mo | $-34,707 (vs do-nothing $-33,340) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $45 | 21d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.30 | 20/20 | $600 | $857 | $414 | 92%hist 96% | 17%hist 13% | 92% | +$370 | -$41,733 | 304.6% | 6.2mo | $-40,807 (vs do-nothing $-39,440) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $40.50 | 7d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.16 | 20/20 | $320 | $1,371 | $929 | 91%hist 96% | 18%hist 13% | 92% | +$613 | -$51,013 | 372.4% | 7.5mo | $-50,087 (vs do-nothing $-48,720) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $42 | 14d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.28 | 20/20 | $560 | $1,200 | $757 | 91%hist 96% | 18%hist 13% | 92% | +$654 | -$47,773 | 348.7% | 7.1mo | $-46,847 (vs do-nothing $-45,480) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $42.50 | 14d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.25 | 20/20 | $500 | $1,071 | $629 | 91%hist 96% | 19%hist 13% | 92% | +$468 | -$46,833 | 341.8% | 6.9mo | $-45,907 (vs do-nothing $-44,540) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $47 | 28d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.39 | 20/20 | $780 | $836 | $393 | 91%hist 96% | 19%hist 13% | 92% | +$241 | -$37,553 | 274.1% | 5.5mo | $-36,627 (vs do-nothing $-35,260) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $44 | 21d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.36 | 20/20 | $720 | $1,029 | $586 | 90%hist 96% | 21%hist 24% | 91% | +$406 | -$43,613 | 318.3% | 6.4mo | $-42,687 (vs do-nothing $-41,320) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $40 | 7d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.20 | 20/20 | $400 | $1,714 | $1,271 | 90%hist 87% | 21%hist 24% | 91% | +$746 | -$51,933 | 379.1% | 7.7mo | $-51,007 (vs do-nothing $-49,640) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $41.50 | 14d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.32 | 20/20 | $640 | $1,371 | $929 | 90%hist 87% | 22%hist 24% | 91% | +$685 | -$48,693 | 355.4% | 7.2mo | $-47,767 (vs do-nothing $-46,400) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $46 | 28d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.50 | 20/20 | $1,000 | $1,071 | $629 | 89%hist 87% | 22%hist 24% | 90% | +$358 | -$39,333 | 287.1% | 5.8mo | $-38,407 (vs do-nothing $-37,040) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $43 | 21d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.44 | 20/20 | $880 | $1,257 | $814 | 88%hist 87% | 25%hist 24% | 89% | +$456 | -$45,453 | 331.8% | 6.7mo | $-44,527 (vs do-nothing $-43,160) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $45 | 28d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.60 | 20/20 | $1,200 | $1,286 | $843 | 88%hist 87% | 26%hist 24% | 89% | +$428 | -$41,133 | 300.2% | 6.1mo | $-40,207 (vs do-nothing $-38,840) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $39.50 | 7d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.23 | 20/20 | $460 | $1,971 | $1,529 | 88%hist 87% | 26%hist 24% | 89% | +$724 | -$52,873 | 385.9% | 7.8mo | $-51,947 (vs do-nothing $-50,580) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $41 | 14d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.38 | 20/20 | $760 | $1,629 | $1,186 | 87%hist 87% | 28%hist 24% | 88% | +$587 | -$49,573 | 361.8% | 7.3mo | $-48,647 (vs do-nothing $-47,280) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $44 | 28d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.68 | 20/20 | $1,360 | $1,457 | $1,014 | 86%hist 87% | 30%hist 24% | 88% | +$423 | -$42,973 | 313.7% | 6.3mo | $-42,047 (vs do-nothing $-40,680) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $42 | 21d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.54 | 20/20 | $1,080 | $1,543 | $1,100 | 86%hist 87% | 30%hist 31% | 87% | +$506 | -$47,253 | 344.9% | 7.0mo | $-46,327 (vs do-nothing $-44,960) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $39 | 7d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.29 | 20/20 | $580 | $2,486 | $2,043 | 85%hist 87% | 31%hist 31% | 87% | +$869 | -$53,753 | 392.4% | 7.9mo | $-52,827 (vs do-nothing $-51,460) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $40.50 | 14d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.43 | 20/20 | $860 | $1,843 | $1,400 | 85%hist 87% | 31%hist 31% | 87% | +$610 | -$50,473 | 368.4% | 7.5mo | $-49,547 (vs do-nothing $-48,180) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $43 | 28d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.79 | 20/20 | $1,580 | $1,693 | $1,250 | 84%hist 87% | 35%hist 31% | 86% | +$442 | -$44,753 | 326.7% | 6.6mo | $-43,827 (vs do-nothing $-42,460) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $40 | 14d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.49 | 20/20 | $980 | $2,100 | $1,657 | 84%hist 87% | 34%hist 31% | 86% | +$783 | -$51,353 | 374.8% | 7.6mo | $-50,427 (vs do-nothing $-49,060) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $41 | 21d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.67 | 20/20 | $1,340 | $1,914 | $1,471 | 83%hist 87% | 37%hist 31% | 85% | +$568 | -$48,993 | 357.6% | 7.2mo | $-48,067 (vs do-nothing $-46,700) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $38.50 | 7d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.35 | 20/20 | $700 | $3,000 | $2,557 | 82%hist 87% | 37%hist 31% | 85% | +$901 | -$54,633 | 398.8% | 8.1mo | $-53,707 (vs do-nothing $-52,340) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $42 | 28d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.94 | 20/20 | $1,880 | $2,014 | $1,571 | 81%hist 87% | 40%hist 31% | 84% | +$500 | -$46,453 | 339.1% | 6.9mo | $-45,527 (vs do-nothing $-44,160) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $39.50 | 14d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.57 | 20/20 | $1,140 | $2,443 | $2,000 | 81%hist 87% | 40%hist 31% | 84% | +$705 | -$52,193 | 381.0% | 7.7mo | $-51,267 (vs do-nothing $-49,900) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $40 | 21d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.85 | 20/20 | $1,700 | $2,429 | $1,986 | 79%hist 83% | 44%hist 40% | 82% | +$679 | -$50,633 | 369.6% | 7.5mo | $-49,707 (vs do-nothing $-48,340) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $41 | 28d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.98 | 20/20 | $1,960 | $2,100 | $1,657 | 78%hist 83% | 46%hist 40% | 82% | +$264 | -$48,373 | 353.1% | 7.1mo | $-47,447 (vs do-nothing $-46,080) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $39 | 14d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.66 | 20/20 | $1,320 | $2,829 | $2,386 | 78%hist 83% | 45%hist 40% | 82% | +$763 | -$53,013 | 387.0% | 7.8mo | $-52,087 (vs do-nothing $-50,720) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $38.50 | 14d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.73 | 20/20 | $1,460 | $3,129 | $2,686 | 76%hist 83% | 51%hist 46% | 80% | +$676 | -$53,873 | 393.2% | 8.0mo | $-52,947 (vs do-nothing $-51,580) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $40 | 28d | 6 Nov 2026 | $1.30 | 20/20 | $2,600 | $2,786 | $2,343 | 75%hist 83% | 53%hist 46% | 80% | +$556 | -$49,733 | 363.0% | 7.3mo | $-48,807 (vs do-nothing $-47,440) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $39 | 21d | 30 Oct 2026 | $1.05 | 20/20 | $2,100 | $3,000 | $2,557 | 75%hist 83% | 54%hist 46% | 80% | +$728 | -$52,233 | 381.3% | 7.7mo | $-51,307 (vs do-nothing $-49,940) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $39 | 28d | 6 Nov 2026 | $1.53 | 20/20 | $3,060 | $3,279 | $2,836 | 71%hist 83% | 62%hist 56% | 78% | +$569 | -$51,273 | 374.3% | 7.6mo | $-50,347 (vs do-nothing $-48,980) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
Per cycle = bid x 100 x contracts, the cash this expiry pays. Touch = P(strike trades before expiry), with the graded record's hist pill. Recover = months of this income to close the hole to CC-SS. Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.