20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $63.43 | CC-SS: $66.73 (banked floor $64.56) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $107,700 | (ND $6.85 + SW $47) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $8,946/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $415/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-68,660 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Status | Leg | Credit/sh | Credit | Opened | Closed | Close/sh | Banked | Account | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLOSED | 1x $45C 9 Oct 2026 | $0.20 | $20 | 2026-10-07 | 2026-10-08 | $0.03 | $17 | U18827291 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $45C 9 Oct 2026 | $0.20 | $20 | 2026-10-07 | 2026-10-08 | $0.03 | $17 | U18827291 | execution |
| CLOSED | 6x $45C 9 Oct 2026 | $0.20 | $120 | 2026-10-07 | 2026-10-08 | $0.03 | $102 | U18827291 | execution |
| CLOSED | 7x $45C 9 Oct 2026 | $0.20 | $140 | 2026-10-07 | 2026-10-08 | $0.03 | $119 | U18827291 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $45C 9 Oct 2026 | $0.20 | $20 | 2026-10-07 | 2026-10-08 | $0.03 | $17 | U18827291 | execution |
| CLOSED | 2x $45C 9 Oct 2026 | $0.20 | $40 | 2026-10-07 | 2026-10-08 | $0.03 | $34 | U18827291 | execution |
| CLOSED | 2x $45C 9 Oct 2026 | $0.20 | $40 | 2026-10-07 | 2026-10-08 | $0.03 | $34 | U18827291 | execution |
| CLOSED | 6x $49C 9 Oct 2026 | $0.27 | $164 | 2026-10-05 | 2026-10-06 | $0.06 | $128 | U18827291 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 5x $49C 9 Oct 2026 | $0.27 | $137 | 2026-10-05 | 2026-10-06 | $0.06 | $107 | U18827291 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 9x $49C 9 Oct 2026 | $0.27 | $246 | 2026-10-05 | 2026-10-06 | $0.06 | $192 | U18827291 | snapshot |
| EXPIRED | 20x $48C 25 Sep 2026 | $0.23 | $466 | 2026-09-25 | 2026-09-28 | $0.00 | $466 | U18827291 | snapshot |
| UNKNOWN | 20x $58C 2 Oct 2026 | $0.35 | $706 | 2026-09-22 | 2026-09-25 | $0.35 | $0 | U18827291 | snapshot |
| UNKNOWN | 20x $50C 25 Sep 2026 | $0.39 | $788 | 2026-09-18 | 2026-09-22 | $0.39 | $0 | U18827291 | snapshot |
| ASSIGNED | 20x $40C 4 Sep 2026 | $0.24 | $486 | 2026-09-01 | 2026-09-08 | $0.00 | $486 | U18827291 | snapshot |
| EXPIRED | 20x $49C 28 Aug 2026 | $0.92 | $1,840 | 2026-08-21 | 2026-08-31 | $0.00 | $1,840 | U18827291 | snapshot |
| UNKNOWN | 20x $54C 28 Aug 2026 | $1.18 | $2,360 | 2026-08-18 | 2026-08-21 | $1.18 | $0 | U18827291 | execution |
| CLOSED | 6x $70C 18 Sep 2026 | $0.99 | $591 | 2026-08-14 | 2026-08-18 | $0.77 | $129 | U18827291 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 8x $70C 18 Sep 2026 | $0.99 | $788 | 2026-08-14 | 2026-08-18 | $0.77 | $172 | U18827291 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 6x $70C 18 Sep 2026 | $0.99 | $591 | 2026-08-14 | 2026-08-18 | $0.77 | $129 | U18827291 | snapshot |
| UNKNOWN | 20x $50C 21 Aug 2026 | $0.51 | $1,020 | 2026-08-13 | 2026-08-14 | $0.51 | $0 | U18827291 | execution |
| EXPIRED | 20x $40.5C 31 Jul 2026 | $0.58 | $1,153 | 2026-07-28 | 2026-08-03 | $0.00 | $1,153 | U18827291 | snapshot |
| UNKNOWN | 20x $47.5C 31 Jul 2026 | $0.44 | $877 | 2026-07-27 | 2026-07-28 | $0.44 | $0 | U18827291 | snapshot |
| UNKNOWN | 20x $55C 7 Aug 2026 | $0.85 | $1,710 | 2026-07-20 | 2026-07-27 | $0.85 | $0 | U18827291 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $42C 24 Jul 2026 | $0.67 | $67 | 2026-07-17 | 2026-07-20 | $1.30 | $-63 | U18827291 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 5x $42C 24 Jul 2026 | $0.67 | $336 | 2026-07-17 | 2026-07-20 | $1.31 | $-319 | U18827291 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 5x $42C 24 Jul 2026 | $0.67 | $336 | 2026-07-17 | 2026-07-20 | $1.31 | $-319 | U18827291 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 2x $42C 24 Jul 2026 | $0.67 | $134 | 2026-07-17 | 2026-07-20 | $1.30 | $-126 | U18827291 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 2x $42C 24 Jul 2026 | $0.67 | $134 | 2026-07-17 | 2026-07-20 | $1.30 | $-126 | U18827291 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 4x $42C 24 Jul 2026 | $0.67 | $269 | 2026-07-17 | 2026-07-20 | $1.30 | $-251 | U18827291 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 1x $42C 24 Jul 2026 | $0.67 | $67 | 2026-07-17 | 2026-07-20 | $1.30 | $-63 | U18827291 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 20x $43C 17 Jul 2026 | $0.31 | $614 | 2026-07-16 | 2026-07-16 | $0.05 | $514 | U18827291 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 20x $48.5C 10 Jul 2026 | $0.29 | $571 | 2026-07-09 | 2026-07-10 | $0.06 | $451 | U18827291 | seed |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 16 Oct 2026 · 4d | 17 × $39 | 81% | $4,718 | $3,056 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 23 Oct 2026 · 11d | 18 × $38.50 | 70% | $4,516 | $243 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 19 × $46 | 16 Oct | 4d | 27.1% | 98%hist 95% | 4%hist 4% | +1pp | $57 | $427 | -$4,290 | $39,322 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 ร $46 27.1% OTM over spot $36.20 16 Oct 2026 (4d, $0.04 mid) = $57 credit for the 4d cycle โ $427/mo projected Survival (stays โค $46) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays โค $46.03) 98% EV / mo +$227 ๐ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 39% whole by 9mo vs 38% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-88/mo median; plan ~$-60/mo after 68% keep · $-727 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.1 mo [1.8-5.2], measured ONLY among the 39% of futures that got whole ๐ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,355 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 6 Nov 2026) $57 @ 86% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.80/sh now โ $1.27 mid-life โ โ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.03/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.24/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays โค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $46 is $21 below CC-SS $66.73: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.03 collected) or spot โฅ $46.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โ $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic ยท fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ CC-SS $66.73, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-68,660 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$69,904 โ CC assignment net of premium (19 ร $46): -$39,322 โ Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 ร $65): -$172 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-38,249 (+$30,411 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,187 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-36,062, the opportunity cost of earning $427/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (โ $43.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-52,675 (+$15,985 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | ๐ก safe yield | 20 × $41 | 16 Oct | 4d | 13.3% | 91%hist 95% | 19%hist 14% | +5pp | $300 | $2,250 | -$2,468 | $51,151 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 ร $41 13.3% OTM over spot $36.20 16 Oct 2026 (4d, $0.16 mid) = $300 credit for the 4d cycle โ $2,250/mo projected Survival (stays โค $41) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays โค $41.16) 92% EV / mo +$899 ๐ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 39% whole by 9mo vs 34% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,093/mo median; plan ~$743/mo after 68% keep · $7,094 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.6 mo [2.3-5.8], measured ONLY among the 39% of futures that got whole ๐ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,800 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 6 Nov 2026) $50 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.48/sh now โ $1.05 mid-life (likely $0.90โ$1.76) โ โ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.90/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours ๐ Across 242 simulated challenges: the $41 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $42 (overshoots $1.03). The [P25โP75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays โค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $41 is $26 below CC-SS $66.73: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot โฅ $41.16 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โ $41)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic ยท fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ CC-SS $66.73, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-68,660 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$69,904 โ CC assignment net of premium (20 ร $41): -$51,151 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-49,907 (+$18,753 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,187 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-47,720, the opportunity cost of earning $2,250/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (โ $43.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,060, position total $-56,736 (+$11,924 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 18 × $40 | 16 Oct | 4d | 10.5% | 87%hist 86% | 27%hist 24% | +8pp | $414 | $3,105 | -$1,612 | $47,692 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 ร $40 10.5% OTM over spot $36.20 16 Oct 2026 (4d, $0.24 mid) = $414 credit for the 4d cycle โ $3,105/mo projected Survival (stays โค $40) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays โค $40.24) 88% EV / mo +$1,147 ๐ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 38% whole by 9mo vs 30% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,420/mo median; plan ~$965/mo after 68% keep · $10,201 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.0 mo [2.4-6.3], measured ONLY among the 38% of futures that got whole ๐ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,402 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 6 Nov 2026) $50 @ 88% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.43/sh now โ $1.01 mid-life (likely $1.02โ$1.71) โ โ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.23/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.78/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours ๐ Across 447 simulated challenges: the $40 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $41 (overshoots $0.98). The [P25โP75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays โค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $40 is $27 below CC-SS $66.73: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.23 collected) or spot โฅ $40.24 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โ $40)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic ยท fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ CC-SS $66.73, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-68,660 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$69,904 โ CC assignment net of premium (18 ร $40): -$47,692 โ Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 ร $65): -$343 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-46,791 (+$21,869 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,187 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-44,604, the opportunity cost of earning $3,105/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (โ $43.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,310, position total $-57,984 (+$10,676 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | ๐ฏ 50% normal | 17 × $39 | 16 Oct | 4d | 7.7% | 81%hist 86% | 39%hist 32% | +6pp | $629 | $4,718 | — | $46,505 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 ร $39 7.7% OTM over spot $36.20 16 Oct 2026 (4d, $0.38 mid) = $629 credit for the 4d cycle โ $4,718/mo projected Survival (stays โค $39) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays โค $39.38) 84% EV / mo +$1,595 ๐ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 36% whole by 9mo vs 30% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,963/mo median; plan ~$1,335/mo after 68% keep · $14,371 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.8 mo [2.4-5.7], measured ONLY among the 36% of futures that got whole ๐ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 25% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,016 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 6 Nov 2026) $50 @ 90% POP 88% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.37/sh now โ $0.97 mid-life (likely $0.97โ$1.70) โ โ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.37/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.60/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours ๐ Across 758 simulated challenges: the $39 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $40 (overshoots $0.96). The [P25โP75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays โค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $39 is $28 below CC-SS $66.73: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.37 collected) or spot โฅ $39.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โ $39)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic ยท fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ CC-SS $66.73, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-68,660 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$69,904 โ CC assignment net of premium (17 ร $39): -$46,505 โ Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 ร $65): -$515 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-45,775 (+$22,885 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,187 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-43,588, the opportunity cost of earning $4,718/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (โ $43.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,477, position total $-59,150 (+$9,510 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 18 × $37.50 | 16 Oct | 4d | 3.6% | 67%hist 64% | 67%hist 57% | +12pp | $1,206 | $9,045 | +$4,328 | $51,400 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 ร $37.50 3.6% OTM over spot $36.20 16 Oct 2026 (4d, $0.70 mid) = $1,206 credit for the 4d cycle โ $9,045/mo projected Survival (stays โค $37.50) 67% Breach risk 33% POP (stays โค $38.20) 75% EV / mo +$1,530 ๐ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 38% whole by 9mo vs 26% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~10.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,882/mo median; plan ~$1,960/mo after 68% keep · $21,367 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.6 mo [2.7-6.6], measured ONLY among the 38% of futures that got whole ๐ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 48% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$429 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 6 Nov 2026) $48 @ 90% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.28/sh now โ $0.91 mid-life (likely $1.12โ$1.81) โ โ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.67/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.24/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours ๐ Across 1,451 simulated challenges: the $38 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $38 (overshoots $0.97). The [P25โP75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays โค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $37.50 is $29 below CC-SS $66.73: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.67 collected) or spot โฅ $38.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โ $38)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic ยท fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ CC-SS $66.73, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-68,660 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$69,904 โ CC assignment net of premium (18 ร $37.50): -$51,400 โ Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 ร $65): -$343 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-50,499 (+$18,161 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,187 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-48,312, the opportunity cost of earning $9,045/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (โ $43.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,018, position total $-61,692 (+$6,968 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 17 × $48 | 23 Oct | 11d | 32.6% | 97%hist 95% | 6%hist 4% | +1pp | $153 | $417 | -$4,099 | $31,681 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 ร $48 32.6% OTM over spot $36.20 23 Oct 2026 (11d, $0.10 mid) = $153 credit for the 11d cycle โ $417/mo projected Survival (stays โค $48) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays โค $48.10) 97% EV / mo +$255 ๐ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 35% whole by 9mo vs 34% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-82/mo median; plan ~$-56/mo after 68% keep · $-528 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.2 mo [2.1-5.2], measured ONLY among the 35% of futures that got whole ๐ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,423 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 6 Nov 2026) $54 @ 78% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.97/sh now โ $2.10 mid-life โ โ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.01/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays โค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48 is $19 below CC-SS $66.73: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot โฅ $48.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โ $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic ยท fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ CC-SS $66.73, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-68,660 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$69,904 โ CC assignment net of premium (17 ร $48): -$31,681 โ Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 ร $65): -$515 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,951 (+$37,709 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,187 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-28,764, the opportunity cost of earning $417/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (โ $43.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-52,673 (+$15,987 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | ๐ก safe yield | 20 × $43.50 | 23 Oct | 11d | 20.2% | 91%hist 95% | 19%hist 14% | +2pp | $440 | $1,200 | -$3,316 | $46,011 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 ร $43.50 20.2% OTM over spot $36.20 23 Oct 2026 (11d, $0.25 mid) = $440 credit for the 11d cycle โ $1,200/mo projected Survival (stays โค $43.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays โค $43.75) 92% EV / mo +$387 ๐ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 28% whole by 9mo vs 26% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $353/mo median; plan ~$240/mo after 68% keep · $2,604 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.6 mo [2.2-6.1], measured ONLY among the 28% of futures that got whole ๐ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,107 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 6 Nov 2026) $48 @ 78% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.51/sh now โ $1.77 mid-life (likely $1.38โ$2.31) โ โ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours ๐ Across 289 simulated challenges: the $44 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $44 (overshoots $0.99). The [P25โP75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays โค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $43.50 is $23 below CC-SS $66.73: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.22 collected) or spot โฅ $43.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โ $44)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic ยท fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ CC-SS $66.73, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-68,660 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$69,904 โ CC assignment net of premium (20 ร $43.50): -$46,011 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-44,767 (+$23,893 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,187 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-42,580, the opportunity cost of earning $1,200/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (โ $43.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-52,676 (+$15,984 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 19 × $40 | 23 Oct | 11d | 10.5% | 79%hist 82% | 43%hist 42% | +4pp | $1,140 | $3,109 | -$1,407 | $49,639 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 ร $40 10.5% OTM over spot $36.20 23 Oct 2026 (11d, $0.64 mid) = $1,140 credit for the 11d cycle โ $3,109/mo projected Survival (stays โค $40) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays โค $40.63) 83% EV / mo +$855 ๐ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 28% whole by 9mo vs 24% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,077/mo median; plan ~$732/mo after 68% keep · $8,603 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.9 mo [2.4-6.6], measured ONLY among the 28% of futures that got whole ๐ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 33% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,778 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 6 Nov 2026) $47 @ 83% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.17/sh now โ $1.54 mid-life (likely $1.50โ$2.27) โ โ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.94/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours ๐ Across 990 simulated challenges: the $40 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $41 (overshoots $0.86). The [P25โP75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays โค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $40 is $27 below CC-SS $66.73: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.60 collected) or spot โฅ $40.63 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โ $40)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic ยท fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ CC-SS $66.73, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-68,660 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$69,904 โ CC assignment net of premium (19 ร $40): -$49,639 โ Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 ร $65): -$172 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-48,566 (+$20,094 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,187 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-46,379, the opportunity cost of earning $3,109/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (โ $43.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,902, position total $-57,577 (+$11,083 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | ๐ฏ 50% normal | 18 × $38.50 | 23 Oct | 11d | 6.4% | 70%hist 82% | 62%hist 57% | +5pp | $1,656 | $4,516 | — | $49,150 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 ร $38.50 6.4% OTM over spot $36.20 23 Oct 2026 (11d, $0.96 mid) = $1,656 credit for the 11d cycle โ $4,516/mo projected Survival (stays โค $38.50) 70% Breach risk 30% POP (stays โค $39.46) 77% EV / mo +$834 ๐ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 32% whole by 9mo vs 27% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,294/mo median; plan ~$880/mo after 68% keep · $10,515 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.7 mo [2.9-6.2], measured ONLY among the 32% of futures that got whole ๐ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 50% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$934 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 6 Nov 2026) $48 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.03/sh now โ $1.44 mid-life (likely $1.69โ$2.37) โ โ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.92/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.52/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours ๐ Across 1,507 simulated challenges: the $38 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $39 (overshoots $0.88). The [P25โP75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays โค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $38.50 is $28 below CC-SS $66.73: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.92 collected) or spot โฅ $39.46 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โ $38)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic ยท fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ CC-SS $66.73, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-68,660 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$69,904 โ CC assignment net of premium (18 ร $38.50): -$49,150 โ Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 ร $65): -$343 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-48,249 (+$20,411 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,187 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-46,062, the opportunity cost of earning $4,516/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (โ $43.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,768, position total $-59,442 (+$9,218 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 18 × $36 | 23 Oct | 11d | -0.6% | 51%hist 67% | 100%hist 90% | · | $3,312 | $9,033 | +$4,516 | $51,994 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 ร $36 0.6% ITM over spot $36.20 23 Oct 2026 (11d, $1.89 mid) = $3,312 credit for the 11d cycle โ $9,033/mo projected Survival (stays โค $36) 51% Breach risk 49% POP (stays โค $37.88) 66% EV / mo +$943 ๐ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$1,000 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 6 Nov 2026) $45 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.82/sh now โ $1.28 mid-life โ โ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.84/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.56/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays โค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $36 is $31 below CC-SS $66.73: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.46/sh (~25% of the $1.84 collected) or spot โฅ $37.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โ $36)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic ยท fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ CC-SS $66.73, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-68,660 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$69,904 โ CC assignment net of premium (18 ร $36): -$51,994 โ Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 ร $65): -$343 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-51,093 (+$17,567 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,187 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-48,906, the opportunity cost of earning $9,033/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (โ $43.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,612, position total $-62,286 (+$6,374 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 22 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary ๐ฏ is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.145 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$69,904 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,187
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Per cycle | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | Touch | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Recover | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $39 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.37 | 17/20 | $629 | $4,718 | $4,310 | 81%hist 86% | 39%hist 32% | 84% | +$1,595 | -$46,505 | 339.4% | 5.2mo | $-45,775 (vs do-nothing $-43,588) |
| $38.50 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.43 | 14/20 | $602 | $4,515 | $4,116 | 77%hist 82% | 47%hist 42% | 81% | +$1,114 | -$38,914 | 284.0% | 4.3mo | $-38,699 (vs do-nothing $-36,512) |
| $38 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.56 | 11/20 | $616 | $4,620 | $4,229 | 73%hist 82% | 56%hist 45% | 78% | +$1,105 | -$30,982 | 226.1% | 3.5mo | $-31,282 (vs do-nothing $-29,095) |
| $38.50 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.92 | 18/20 | $1,656 | $4,516 | $4,106 | 70%hist 82% | 62%hist 57% | 77% | +$834 | -$49,150 | 358.8% | 5.5mo | $-48,249 (vs do-nothing $-46,062) |
| $38.50 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $1.38 | 20/20 | $2,760 | $4,600 | $4,185 | 68%hist 64% | 69%hist 57% | 75% | +$855 | -$53,691 | 391.9% | 6.0mo | $-52,447 (vs do-nothing $-50,260) |
| $37.50 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.67 | 9/20 | $603 | $4,523 | $4,137 | 67%hist 64% | 67%hist 57% | 75% | +$765 | -$25,700 | 187.6% | 2.9mo | $-26,343 (vs do-nothing $-24,156) |
| $38 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $1.06 | 16/20 | $1,696 | $4,625 | $4,221 | 67%hist 64% | 69%hist 57% | 75% | +$816 | -$44,265 | 323.1% | 4.9mo | $-43,707 (vs do-nothing $-41,520) |
| $38 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $1.53 | 18/20 | $2,754 | $4,590 | $4,180 | 65%hist 64% | 75%hist 69% | 74% | +$760 | -$48,952 | 357.3% | 5.5mo | $-48,051 (vs do-nothing $-45,864) |
| $37.50 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $1.22 | 14/20 | $1,708 | $4,658 | $4,259 | 63%hist 64% | 77%hist 69% | 73% | +$758 | -$39,208 | 286.2% | 4.4mo | $-38,993 (vs do-nothing $-36,806) |
| $38 | 25d | 6 Nov 2026 | $2.12 | 18/20 | $3,816 | $4,579 | $4,169 | 63%hist 64% | 79%hist 69% | 73% | +$717 | -$47,890 | 349.6% | 5.4mo | $-46,989 (vs do-nothing $-44,802) |
| $37.50 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $1.71 | 16/20 | $2,736 | $4,560 | $4,156 | 62%hist 64% | 81%hist 79% | 72% | +$700 | -$44,025 | 321.4% | 4.9mo | $-43,467 (vs do-nothing $-41,280) |
| $37 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.84 | 8/20 | $672 | $5,040 | $4,657 | 62%hist 64% | 79%hist 69% | 71% | +$719 | -$23,108 | 168.7% | 2.6mo | $-23,923 (vs do-nothing $-21,736) |
| $37 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $1.40 | 12/20 | $1,680 | $4,582 | $4,188 | 59%hist 67% | 85%hist 79% | 71% | +$638 | -$33,991 | 248.1% | 3.8mo | $-34,119 (vs do-nothing $-31,932) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Per cycle | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | Touch | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Recover | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $37 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $1.86 | 15/20 | $2,790 | $4,650 | $4,248 | 59%hist 67% | 88%hist 79% | 70% | +$556 | -$41,798 | 305.1% | 4.7mo | $-41,412 (vs do-nothing $-39,225) |
| $37 | 25d | 6 Nov 2026 | $2.37 | 16/20 | $3,792 | $4,550 | $4,146 | 58%hist 67% | 90%hist 90% | 70% | +$402 | -$43,769 | 319.5% | 4.9mo | $-43,211 (vs do-nothing $-41,024) |
| $36.50 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.03 | 6/20 | $618 | $4,635 | $4,258 | 56%hist 67% | 92%hist 90% | 68% | +$497 | -$17,517 | 127.9% | 2.0mo | $-18,675 (vs do-nothing $-16,488) |
| $36.50 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $2.10 | 13/20 | $2,730 | $4,550 | $4,154 | 55%hist 67% | 96%hist 90% | 69% | +$547 | -$36,563 | 266.9% | 4.1mo | $-36,520 (vs do-nothing $-34,333) |
| $36.50 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $1.60 | 11/20 | $1,760 | $4,800 | $4,409 | 55%hist 67% | 94%hist 90% | 68% | +$559 | -$31,488 | 229.8% | 3.5mo | $-31,788 (vs do-nothing $-29,601) |
| $36 | 25d | 6 Nov 2026 | $2.90 | 13/20 | $3,770 | $4,524 | $4,128 | 53%hist 67% | 100%hist 90% | 68% | +$473 | -$36,173 | 264.0% | 4.0mo | $-36,130 (vs do-nothing $-33,943) |
| $36 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $2.32 | 12/20 | $2,784 | $4,640 | $4,246 | 52%hist 67% | 100%hist 90% | 67% | +$484 | -$34,087 | 248.8% | 3.8mo | $-34,215 (vs do-nothing $-32,028) |
| $36 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $1.84 | 9/20 | $1,656 | $4,516 | $4,131 | 51%hist 67% | 100%hist 90% | 66% | +$471 | -$25,997 | 189.8% | 2.9mo | $-26,640 (vs do-nothing $-24,453) |
| $36 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.26 | 5/20 | $630 | $4,725 | $4,351 | 49% | 100%hist 90% | 65% | +$387 | -$14,733 | 107.5% | 1.6mo | $-16,062 (vs do-nothing $-13,875) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Per cycle | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | Touch | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Recover | Total P&L @ SS | Why not eligible |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $65 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.01 | 20/20 | $20 | $55 | $-361 | 99+%hist 95% | 1%hist 4% | 100% | +$40 | -$3,431 | 25.0% | 0.4mo | $-2,187 (vs do-nothing +$0) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $55 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.01 | 20/20 | $20 | $150 | $-265 | 99+%hist 95% | 1%hist 4% | 100% | +$119 | -$23,431 | 171.0% | 2.6mo | $-22,187 (vs do-nothing $-20,000) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $54 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.01 | 20/20 | $20 | $150 | $-265 | 99+%hist 95% | 1%hist 4% | 100% | +$114 | -$25,431 | 185.6% | 2.8mo | $-24,187 (vs do-nothing $-22,000) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $53 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.01 | 20/20 | $20 | $150 | $-265 | 99%hist 95% | 1%hist 4% | 99% | +$109 | -$27,431 | 200.2% | 3.1mo | $-26,187 (vs do-nothing $-24,000) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $60 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.02 | 20/20 | $40 | $109 | $-306 | 99%hist 95% | 1%hist 4% | 99% | +$83 | -$13,411 | 97.9% | 1.5mo | $-12,167 (vs do-nothing $-9,980) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $52 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.01 | 20/20 | $20 | $150 | $-265 | 99%hist 95% | 1%hist 4% | 99% | +$103 | -$29,431 | 214.8% | 3.3mo | $-28,187 (vs do-nothing $-26,000) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $65 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.03 | 20/20 | $60 | $100 | $-315 | 99%hist 95% | 1%hist 4% | 99% | +$74 | -$3,391 | 24.8% | 0.4mo | $-2,147 (vs do-nothing +$40) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $51 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.01 | 20/20 | $20 | $150 | $-265 | 99%hist 95% | 1%hist 4% | 99% | +$97 | -$31,431 | 229.4% | 3.5mo | $-30,187 (vs do-nothing $-28,000) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $58 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.01 | 20/20 | $20 | $55 | $-361 | 99%hist 95% | 1%hist 4% | 99% | +$19 | -$17,431 | 127.2% | 1.9mo | $-16,187 (vs do-nothing $-14,000) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $50 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.01 | 20/20 | $20 | $150 | $-265 | 99%hist 95% | 2%hist 4% | 99% | +$91 | -$33,431 | 244.0% | 3.7mo | $-32,187 (vs do-nothing $-30,000) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $57 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.02 | 20/20 | $40 | $109 | $-306 | 99%hist 95% | 2%hist 4% | 99% | +$67 | -$19,411 | 141.7% | 2.2mo | $-18,167 (vs do-nothing $-15,980) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $56 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.01 | 20/20 | $20 | $55 | $-361 | 99%hist 95% | 2%hist 4% | 99% | +$4 | -$21,431 | 156.4% | 2.4mo | $-20,187 (vs do-nothing $-18,000) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $65 | 25d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.06 | 20/20 | $120 | $144 | $-271 | 99%hist 95% | 2%hist 4% | 99% | +$104 | -$3,331 | 24.3% | 0.4mo | $-2,087 (vs do-nothing +$100) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $60 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.05 | 20/20 | $100 | $167 | $-249 | 99%hist 95% | 2%hist 4% | 99% | +$121 | -$13,351 | 97.5% | 1.5mo | $-12,107 (vs do-nothing $-9,920) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $55 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.04 | 20/20 | $80 | $218 | $-197 | 99%hist 95% | 2%hist 4% | 99% | +$160 | -$23,371 | 170.6% | 2.6mo | $-22,127 (vs do-nothing $-19,940) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $49 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.02 | 20/20 | $40 | $300 | $-115 | 99%hist 95% | 2%hist 4% | 99% | +$197 | -$35,411 | 258.5% | 4.0mo | $-34,167 (vs do-nothing $-31,980) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $54 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.03 | 20/20 | $60 | $164 | $-252 | 99%hist 95% | 2%hist 4% | 99% | +$100 | -$25,391 | 185.3% | 2.8mo | $-24,147 (vs do-nothing $-21,960) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $58 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.04 | 20/20 | $80 | $133 | $-282 | 99%hist 95% | 3%hist 4% | 99% | +$74 | -$17,371 | 126.8% | 1.9mo | $-16,127 (vs do-nothing $-13,940) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $53 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.01 | 20/20 | $20 | $55 | $-361 | 99%hist 95% | 3%hist 4% | 99% | $-14 | -$27,431 | 200.2% | 3.1mo | $-26,187 (vs do-nothing $-24,000) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $57 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.04 | 20/20 | $80 | $133 | $-282 | 99%hist 95% | 3%hist 4% | 99% | +$71 | -$19,371 | 141.4% | 2.2mo | $-18,127 (vs do-nothing $-15,940) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $52 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.04 | 20/20 | $80 | $218 | $-197 | 99%hist 95% | 3%hist 4% | 99% | +$140 | -$29,371 | 214.4% | 3.3mo | $-28,127 (vs do-nothing $-25,940) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $48 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.01 | 20/20 | $20 | $150 | $-265 | 98%hist 95% | 3%hist 4% | 98% | $-9 | -$37,431 | 273.2% | 4.2mo | $-36,187 (vs do-nothing $-34,000) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $46.50 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.02 | 20/20 | $40 | $300 | $-115 | 98%hist 95% | 3%hist 4% | 98% | +$158 | -$40,411 | 295.0% | 4.5mo | $-39,167 (vs do-nothing $-36,980) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $56 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.07 | 20/20 | $140 | $233 | $-182 | 98%hist 95% | 3%hist 4% | 98% | +$161 | -$21,311 | 155.6% | 2.4mo | $-20,067 (vs do-nothing $-17,880) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $49.50 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.01 | 20/20 | $20 | $150 | $-265 | 98%hist 95% | 3%hist 4% | 98% | $-56 | -$34,431 | 251.3% | 3.8mo | $-33,187 (vs do-nothing $-31,000) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $47 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.02 | 20/20 | $40 | $300 | $-115 | 98%hist 95% | 3%hist 4% | 98% | +$133 | -$39,411 | 287.7% | 4.4mo | $-38,167 (vs do-nothing $-35,980) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $51 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.01 | 20/20 | $20 | $55 | $-361 | 98%hist 95% | 4%hist 4% | 98% | $-39 | -$31,431 | 229.4% | 3.5mo | $-30,187 (vs do-nothing $-28,000) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $60 | 25d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.07 | 20/20 | $140 | $168 | $-247 | 98%hist 95% | 4%hist 4% | 98% | +$88 | -$13,311 | 97.2% | 1.5mo | $-12,067 (vs do-nothing $-9,880) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $55 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.08 | 20/20 | $160 | $267 | $-149 | 98%hist 95% | 4%hist 4% | 98% | +$181 | -$23,291 | 170.0% | 2.6mo | $-22,047 (vs do-nothing $-19,860) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $48.50 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.02 | 20/20 | $40 | $300 | $-115 | 98%hist 95% | 4%hist 4% | 98% | +$51 | -$36,411 | 265.8% | 4.1mo | $-35,167 (vs do-nothing $-32,980) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $47.50 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.01 | 20/20 | $20 | $150 | $-265 | 98%hist 95% | 4%hist 4% | 98% | $-77 | -$38,431 | 280.5% | 4.3mo | $-37,187 (vs do-nothing $-35,000) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $50 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.06 | 20/20 | $120 | $327 | $-88 | 98%hist 95% | 4%hist 4% | 98% | +$210 | -$33,331 | 243.3% | 3.7mo | $-32,087 (vs do-nothing $-29,900) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $46 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.03 | 20/20 | $60 | $450 | $35 | 98%hist 95% | 4%hist 4% | 98% | +$238 | -$41,391 | 302.1% | 4.6mo | $-40,147 (vs do-nothing $-37,960) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $54 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.09 | 20/20 | $180 | $300 | $-115 | 98%hist 95% | 4%hist 4% | 98% | +$199 | -$25,271 | 184.5% | 2.8mo | $-24,027 (vs do-nothing $-21,840) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $45.50 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.01 | 20/20 | $20 | $150 | $-265 | 98%hist 95% | 4%hist 4% | 98% | $-53 | -$42,431 | 309.7% | 4.7mo | $-41,187 (vs do-nothing $-39,000) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $58 | 25d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.13 | 20/20 | $260 | $312 | $-103 | 98%hist 95% | 5%hist 4% | 98% | +$202 | -$17,191 | 125.5% | 1.9mo | $-15,947 (vs do-nothing $-13,760) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $45 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.04 | 20/20 | $80 | $600 | $185 | 98%hist 95% | 5%hist 4% | 98% | +$365 | -$43,371 | 316.6% | 4.8mo | $-42,127 (vs do-nothing $-39,940) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $53 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.08 | 20/20 | $160 | $267 | $-149 | 98%hist 95% | 5%hist 4% | 98% | +$146 | -$27,291 | 199.2% | 3.1mo | $-26,047 (vs do-nothing $-23,860) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $49 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.06 | 20/20 | $120 | $327 | $-88 | 97%hist 95% | 5%hist 4% | 98% | +$178 | -$35,331 | 257.9% | 3.9mo | $-34,087 (vs do-nothing $-31,900) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $57 | 25d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.12 | 20/20 | $240 | $288 | $-127 | 97%hist 95% | 5%hist 4% | 98% | +$159 | -$19,211 | 140.2% | 2.1mo | $-17,967 (vs do-nothing $-15,780) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $52 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.09 | 20/20 | $180 | $300 | $-115 | 97%hist 95% | 6%hist 4% | 97% | +$155 | -$29,271 | 213.7% | 3.3mo | $-28,027 (vs do-nothing $-25,840) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $56 | 25d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.15 | 20/20 | $300 | $360 | $-55 | 97%hist 95% | 6%hist 4% | 97% | +$208 | -$21,151 | 154.4% | 2.4mo | $-19,907 (vs do-nothing $-17,720) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $44.50 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.05 | 20/20 | $100 | $750 | $335 | 97%hist 95% | 6%hist 4% | 97% | +$420 | -$44,351 | 323.7% | 5.0mo | $-43,107 (vs do-nothing $-40,920) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $48 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.09 | 20/20 | $180 | $491 | $76 | 97%hist 95% | 6%hist 4% | 97% | +$300 | -$37,271 | 272.1% | 4.2mo | $-36,027 (vs do-nothing $-33,840) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $51 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.12 | 20/20 | $240 | $400 | $-15 | 97%hist 95% | 7%hist 4% | 97% | +$224 | -$31,211 | 227.8% | 3.5mo | $-29,967 (vs do-nothing $-27,780) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $55 | 25d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.18 | 20/20 | $360 | $432 | $17 | 97%hist 95% | 7%hist 4% | 97% | +$253 | -$23,091 | 168.5% | 2.6mo | $-21,847 (vs do-nothing $-19,660) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $44 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.05 | 20/20 | $100 | $750 | $335 | 97%hist 95% | 7%hist 4% | 97% | +$387 | -$45,351 | 331.0% | 5.1mo | $-44,107 (vs do-nothing $-41,920) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $47.50 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.07 | 20/20 | $140 | $382 | $-34 | 97%hist 95% | 7%hist 4% | 97% | +$165 | -$38,311 | 279.6% | 4.3mo | $-37,067 (vs do-nothing $-34,880) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $43.50 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.06 | 20/20 | $120 | $900 | $485 | 96%hist 95% | 8%hist 4% | 96% | +$496 | -$46,331 | 338.2% | 5.2mo | $-45,087 (vs do-nothing $-42,900) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $47 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.10 | 20/20 | $200 | $545 | $130 | 96%hist 95% | 8%hist 4% | 96% | +$299 | -$39,251 | 286.5% | 4.4mo | $-38,007 (vs do-nothing $-35,820) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $54 | 25d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.20 | 20/20 | $400 | $480 | $65 | 96%hist 95% | 8%hist 4% | 96% | +$268 | -$25,051 | 182.9% | 2.8mo | $-23,807 (vs do-nothing $-21,620) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $50 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.15 | 20/20 | $300 | $500 | $85 | 96%hist 95% | 8%hist 4% | 96% | +$285 | -$33,151 | 242.0% | 3.7mo | $-31,907 (vs do-nothing $-29,720) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $46.50 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.11 | 20/20 | $220 | $600 | $185 | 96%hist 95% | 9%hist 4% | 96% | +$320 | -$40,231 | 293.7% | 4.5mo | $-38,987 (vs do-nothing $-36,800) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $53 | 25d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.22 | 20/20 | $440 | $528 | $113 | 96%hist 95% | 9%hist 4% | 96% | +$277 | -$27,011 | 197.2% | 3.0mo | $-25,767 (vs do-nothing $-23,580) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $49 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.17 | 20/20 | $340 | $567 | $151 | 95%hist 95% | 9%hist 4% | 96% | +$301 | -$35,111 | 256.3% | 3.9mo | $-33,867 (vs do-nothing $-31,680) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $43 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.07 | 20/20 | $140 | $1,050 | $635 | 95%hist 95% | 9%hist 4% | 96% | +$497 | -$47,311 | 345.3% | 5.3mo | $-46,067 (vs do-nothing $-43,880) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $46 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.12 | 20/20 | $240 | $655 | $239 | 95%hist 95% | 10%hist 4% | 96% | +$334 | -$41,211 | 300.8% | 4.6mo | $-39,967 (vs do-nothing $-37,780) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $52 | 25d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.25 | 20/20 | $500 | $600 | $185 | 95%hist 95% | 10%hist 14% | 95% | +$301 | -$28,951 | 211.3% | 3.2mo | $-27,707 (vs do-nothing $-25,520) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $42.50 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.08 | 20/20 | $160 | $1,200 | $785 | 95%hist 95% | 11%hist 14% | 95% | +$517 | -$48,291 | 352.5% | 5.4mo | $-47,047 (vs do-nothing $-44,860) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $48 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.20 | 20/20 | $400 | $667 | $251 | 95%hist 95% | 11%hist 14% | 95% | +$336 | -$37,051 | 270.4% | 4.1mo | $-35,807 (vs do-nothing $-33,620) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $51 | 25d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.29 | 20/20 | $580 | $696 | $281 | 94%hist 95% | 12%hist 14% | 95% | +$339 | -$30,871 | 225.3% | 3.5mo | $-29,627 (vs do-nothing $-27,440) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $45.50 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.13 | 20/20 | $260 | $709 | $294 | 94%hist 95% | 12%hist 14% | 94% | +$227 | -$42,191 | 308.0% | 4.7mo | $-40,947 (vs do-nothing $-38,760) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $45 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.15 | 20/20 | $300 | $818 | $403 | 94%hist 95% | 13%hist 14% | 94% | +$344 | -$43,151 | 315.0% | 4.8mo | $-41,907 (vs do-nothing $-39,720) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $42 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.10 | 20/20 | $200 | $1,500 | $1,085 | 94%hist 95% | 13%hist 14% | 94% | +$678 | -$49,251 | 359.5% | 5.5mo | $-48,007 (vs do-nothing $-45,820) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $47 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.24 | 20/20 | $480 | $800 | $385 | 94%hist 95% | 14%hist 14% | 94% | +$384 | -$38,971 | 284.5% | 4.4mo | $-37,727 (vs do-nothing $-35,540) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $50 | 25d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.35 | 20/20 | $700 | $840 | $425 | 93%hist 95% | 14%hist 14% | 94% | +$413 | -$32,751 | 239.1% | 3.7mo | $-31,507 (vs do-nothing $-29,320) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $44.50 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.17 | 20/20 | $340 | $927 | $512 | 93%hist 95% | 16%hist 14% | 93% | +$282 | -$44,111 | 322.0% | 4.9mo | $-42,867 (vs do-nothing $-40,680) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $49 | 25d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.39 | 20/20 | $780 | $936 | $521 | 92%hist 95% | 16%hist 14% | 93% | +$423 | -$34,671 | 253.1% | 3.9mo | $-33,427 (vs do-nothing $-31,240) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $41.50 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.12 | 20/20 | $240 | $1,800 | $1,385 | 92%hist 95% | 16%hist 14% | 93% | +$699 | -$50,211 | 366.5% | 5.6mo | $-48,967 (vs do-nothing $-46,780) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $46 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.28 | 20/20 | $560 | $933 | $518 | 92%hist 95% | 16%hist 14% | 93% | +$406 | -$40,891 | 298.5% | 4.6mo | $-39,647 (vs do-nothing $-37,460) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $44 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.20 | 20/20 | $400 | $1,091 | $676 | 92%hist 95% | 16%hist 14% | 93% | +$434 | -$45,051 | 328.8% | 5.0mo | $-43,807 (vs do-nothing $-41,620) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $48 | 25d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.45 | 20/20 | $900 | $1,080 | $665 | 91%hist 95% | 19%hist 14% | 92% | +$463 | -$36,551 | 266.8% | 4.1mo | $-35,307 (vs do-nothing $-33,120) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $41 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.15 | 20/20 | $300 | $2,250 | $1,835 | 91%hist 95% | 19%hist 14% | 92% | +$899 | -$51,151 | 373.4% | 5.7mo | $-49,907 (vs do-nothing $-47,720) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $43.50 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.22 | 20/20 | $440 | $1,200 | $785 | 91%hist 95% | 19%hist 14% | 92% | +$387 | -$46,011 | 335.8% | 5.1mo | $-44,767 (vs do-nothing $-42,580) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $45 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.35 | 20/20 | $700 | $1,167 | $751 | 91%hist 95% | 20%hist 14% | 91% | +$482 | -$42,751 | 312.1% | 4.8mo | $-41,507 (vs do-nothing $-39,320) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $47 | 25d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.51 | 20/20 | $1,020 | $1,224 | $809 | 90%hist 86% | 21%hist 24% | 91% | +$480 | -$38,431 | 280.5% | 4.3mo | $-37,187 (vs do-nothing $-35,000) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $43 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.25 | 20/20 | $500 | $1,364 | $948 | 90%hist 86% | 21%hist 24% | 91% | +$419 | -$46,951 | 342.7% | 5.2mo | $-45,707 (vs do-nothing $-43,520) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $40.50 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.18 | 20/20 | $360 | $2,700 | $2,285 | 89%hist 86% | 22%hist 24% | 90% | +$958 | -$52,091 | 380.2% | 5.8mo | $-50,847 (vs do-nothing $-48,660) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $42.50 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.29 | 20/20 | $580 | $1,582 | $1,166 | 89%hist 86% | 23%hist 24% | 90% | +$528 | -$47,871 | 349.4% | 5.4mo | $-46,627 (vs do-nothing $-44,440) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $44 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.42 | 20/20 | $840 | $1,400 | $985 | 89%hist 86% | 24%hist 24% | 90% | +$519 | -$44,611 | 325.6% | 5.0mo | $-43,367 (vs do-nothing $-41,180) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $46 | 25d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.58 | 20/20 | $1,160 | $1,392 | $977 | 88%hist 86% | 25%hist 24% | 89% | +$492 | -$40,291 | 294.1% | 4.5mo | $-39,047 (vs do-nothing $-36,860) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $42 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.34 | 20/20 | $680 | $1,855 | $1,439 | 88%hist 86% | 26%hist 24% | 89% | +$683 | -$48,771 | 356.0% | 5.5mo | $-47,527 (vs do-nothing $-45,340) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $40 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.23 | 20/20 | $460 | $3,450 | $3,035 | 87%hist 86% | 27%hist 24% | 88% | +$1,274 | -$52,991 | 386.8% | 5.9mo | $-51,747 (vs do-nothing $-49,560) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $45 | 25d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.67 | 20/20 | $1,340 | $1,608 | $1,193 | 86%hist 86% | 29%hist 24% | 88% | +$517 | -$42,111 | 307.4% | 4.7mo | $-40,867 (vs do-nothing $-38,680) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $43 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.52 | 20/20 | $1,040 | $1,733 | $1,318 | 86%hist 86% | 29%hist 24% | 88% | +$591 | -$46,411 | 338.8% | 5.2mo | $-45,167 (vs do-nothing $-42,980) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $41.50 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.39 | 20/20 | $780 | $2,127 | $1,712 | 86%hist 86% | 29%hist 24% | 87% | +$710 | -$49,671 | 362.6% | 5.6mo | $-48,427 (vs do-nothing $-46,240) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $39.50 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.28 | 20/20 | $560 | $4,200 | $3,785 | 84%hist 86% | 32%hist 32% | 86% | +$1,433 | -$53,891 | 393.4% | 6.0mo | $-52,647 (vs do-nothing $-50,460) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $44 | 25d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.79 | 20/20 | $1,580 | $1,896 | $1,481 | 84%hist 86% | 33%hist 32% | 86% | +$571 | -$43,871 | 320.2% | 4.9mo | $-42,627 (vs do-nothing $-40,440) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $41 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.46 | 20/20 | $920 | $2,509 | $2,094 | 84%hist 86% | 33%hist 32% | 86% | +$844 | -$50,531 | 368.8% | 5.6mo | $-49,287 (vs do-nothing $-47,100) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $42 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.65 | 20/20 | $1,300 | $2,167 | $1,751 | 83%hist 86% | 35%hist 32% | 85% | +$680 | -$48,151 | 351.5% | 5.4mo | $-46,907 (vs do-nothing $-44,720) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $40.50 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.52 | 20/20 | $1,040 | $2,836 | $2,421 | 82%hist 86% | 37%hist 32% | 85% | +$878 | -$51,411 | 375.3% | 5.7mo | $-50,167 (vs do-nothing $-47,980) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $43 | 25d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.93 | 20/20 | $1,860 | $2,232 | $1,817 | 82%hist 86% | 39%hist 32% | 84% | +$620 | -$45,591 | 332.8% | 5.1mo | $-44,347 (vs do-nothing $-42,160) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $41 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.81 | 20/20 | $1,620 | $2,700 | $2,285 | 80%hist 82% | 43%hist 42% | 83% | +$760 | -$49,831 | 363.7% | 5.6mo | $-48,587 (vs do-nothing $-46,400) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $40 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.60 | 20/20 | $1,200 | $3,273 | $2,857 | 79%hist 82% | 43%hist 42% | 83% | +$900 | -$52,251 | 381.4% | 5.8mo | $-51,007 (vs do-nothing $-48,820) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $42 | 25d | 6 Nov 2026 | $1.10 | 20/20 | $2,200 | $2,640 | $2,225 | 79%hist 82% | 45%hist 42% | 82% | +$678 | -$47,251 | 344.9% | 5.3mo | $-46,007 (vs do-nothing $-43,820) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $40.50 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.89 | 20/20 | $1,780 | $2,967 | $2,551 | 77%hist 82% | 47%hist 42% | 81% | +$751 | -$50,671 | 369.9% | 5.7mo | $-49,427 (vs do-nothing $-47,240) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $39.50 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.69 | 20/20 | $1,380 | $3,764 | $3,348 | 77%hist 82% | 48%hist 42% | 81% | +$914 | -$53,071 | 387.4% | 5.9mo | $-51,827 (vs do-nothing $-49,640) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $41 | 25d | 6 Nov 2026 | $1.30 | 20/20 | $2,600 | $3,120 | $2,705 | 76%hist 82% | 52%hist 45% | 80% | +$730 | -$48,851 | 356.6% | 5.5mo | $-47,607 (vs do-nothing $-45,420) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $40 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.98 | 20/20 | $1,960 | $3,267 | $2,851 | 75%hist 82% | 52%hist 45% | 80% | +$737 | -$51,491 | 375.8% | 5.8mo | $-50,247 (vs do-nothing $-48,060) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $39 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.79 | 20/20 | $1,580 | $4,309 | $3,894 | 74%hist 82% | 55%hist 45% | 79% | +$825 | -$53,871 | 393.2% | 6.0mo | $-52,627 (vs do-nothing $-50,440) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $39.50 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $1.11 | 20/20 | $2,220 | $3,700 | $3,285 | 73%hist 82% | 57%hist 45% | 78% | +$813 | -$52,231 | 381.2% | 5.8mo | $-50,987 (vs do-nothing $-48,800) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $40 | 25d | 6 Nov 2026 | $1.53 | 20/20 | $3,060 | $3,672 | $3,257 | 72%hist 82% | 60%hist 57% | 78% | +$761 | -$50,391 | 367.8% | 5.6mo | $-49,147 (vs do-nothing $-46,960) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $39 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $1.24 | 20/20 | $2,480 | $4,133 | $3,718 | 70%hist 82% | 63%hist 57% | 77% | +$843 | -$52,971 | 386.7% | 5.9mo | $-51,727 (vs do-nothing $-49,540) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $39 | 25d | 6 Nov 2026 | $1.79 | 20/20 | $3,580 | $4,296 | $3,881 | 68%hist 64% | 69%hist 57% | 75% | +$757 | -$51,871 | 378.6% | 5.8mo | $-50,627 (vs do-nothing $-48,440) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
Per cycle = bid x 100 x contracts, the cash this expiry pays. Touch = P(strike trades before expiry), with the graded record's hist pill. Recover = months of this income to close the hole to CC-SS. Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.