FORTRESS FIGHT: LLY @ $1416.26

BE SS: $1419.38 | CC-SS: $1424.57 | 1 contracts (100 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

LLY @ $1416.26 UNDERWATER $3.12 (0.2% below BE SS)

1 contracts (100 sh) | BE SS: $1419.38 | CC-SS: $1424.57 | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $1120 exp 2029-01-19 (entry $524.406/sh)

SP: $1440 exp 2029-01-19 (entry $257.988/sh)

HP: $1100 exp 2027-02-19 (entry $12.356/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$61,875	(ND $278.75 + SW $340) x 100
Normal income ref	$6,697/mo	75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$433/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-645	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$3,349/mo

HEDGE COVER
$433/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$6,697/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
4.2 mo to earn back $27,875

ML VELOCITY
9.2 mo to earn back $61,875

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $1424.57 (probe: $1420C 17d) still earns $6,697/mo (100% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 Campaign ledger: seeded, nothing tracked yet. Open short calls and banked credits appear here from the next cycle on; the banked-floor (info) shows how far premium would ratchet the floor, but the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYOVERBOUGHT · %B 115 (live) · RSI 72 · MACD bullish, hist rising

DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 78 · %B 90 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB + 1σ (extension cap) $1,478.44 (+4%) · daily UBB $1,448.38 · 1-wk expected move ±$71 (chain IV)

SETUPStretched but still running: do not fade it with size; 🎯 / 💎. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2027-02-03: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $1424.57 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 1 × $1425 13 Nov 2026 (10d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $1425)

55%

Touch odds

92%

Per cycle

$2,690

Income / mo

$8,070

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $38.39/sh now → $27.15 mid-life (likely $37.30–$50.20) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $26.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.25/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 2,247 simulated challenges: the $1,425 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $1,443 (overshoots $17.77). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,429	27 Nov 2026	19d left	+$13.00/sh	+$1,300 cycle +$3,990 [+$506…+$867] · 97% credit	67% surv 53%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,425	20 Nov 2026	12d left	+$6.42/sh	+$642 cycle +$3,332 [-$38…+$279] · 70% credit	66% surv 51%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,429	20 Nov 2026	12d left	+$4.43/sh	+$443 cycle +$3,133 [-$284…+$60] · 35% credit	66% surv 53%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,449	27 Nov 2026	19d left	+$3.74/sh	+$374 cycle +$3,064 [-$601…-$132] · 17% credit	70% surv 60%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,569	27 Nov 2026	19d left	-$23.15/sh	-$2,315 cycle +$375 [-$4,241…-$3,158]	92% surv 91%
budget: banked $2,690 debit $2,315 (86% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$375 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $632/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🎯 Recommended · sell 1 × $1460 6 Nov 2026 (3d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $1460)

82%

Touch odds

35%

Per cycle

$510

Income / mo

$5,100

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $26.72/sh now → $18.90 mid-life (likely $20.73–$37.70) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$13.80/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 753 simulated challenges: the $1,460 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $1,478 (overshoots $18.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,460	13 Nov 2026	8d left	+$9.15/sh	+$915 cycle +$1,425 [+$214…+$1,026] · 82% credit	65% surv 51%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,504	27 Nov 2026	22d left	+$7.22/sh	+$722 cycle +$1,232 [-$340…+$773] · 63% credit	74% surv 66%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,524	27 Nov 2026	22d left	+$1.17/sh	+$117 cycle +$627 [-$1,086…+$121] · 29% credit	78% surv 72%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,484	13 Nov 2026	8d left	+$0.05/sh	+$5 cycle +$515 [-$939…+$24] · 26% credit	72% surv 63%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,544	27 Nov 2026	22d left	-$4.11/sh	-$411 cycle +$99 [-$1,757…-$453] · 9% credit	81% surv 78%
budget: banked $510 debit $411 (81% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$99 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $2,017/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

🛡 Safer · sell 1 × $1485 6 Nov 2026 (3d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $1485)

90%

Touch odds

19%

Per cycle

$215

Income / mo

$2,150

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,485	13 Nov 2026	8d left	+$8.73/sh	+$873 cycle +$1,088 [+$269…+$1,096] · 84% credit	65% surv 51%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,529	27 Nov 2026	22d left	+$6.66/sh	+$666 cycle +$881 [-$244…+$876] · 70% credit	74% surv 66%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,504	13 Nov 2026	8d left	+$1.61/sh	+$161 cycle +$376 [-$591…+$338] · 48% credit	71% surv 61%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,549	27 Nov 2026	22d left	+$0.62/sh	+$62 cycle +$277 [-$1,000…+$244] · 37% credit	78% surv 72%

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (42 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 42 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.084 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$901 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $2,719

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Per cycle	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	Touch	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Recover	Total P&L @ SS
$1470	3d	6 Nov 2026	$3.65	1/1	$365	$3,650	$3,217	85%hist 86%	30%hist 31%	87%	+$1,144	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$621 (vs do-nothing $-2,098)
$1460	3d	6 Nov 2026	$5.10	1/1	$510	$5,100	$4,667	82%hist 86%	35%hist 31%	86%	+$2,206	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$766 (vs do-nothing $-1,953)
$1465	3d	6 Nov 2026	$4.40	1/1	$440	$4,400	$3,967	82%hist 86%	37%hist 31%	84%	+$838	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$696 (vs do-nothing $-2,023)
$1455	3d	6 Nov 2026	$6.30	1/1	$630	$6,300	$5,867	78%hist 83%	45%hist 40%	82%	+$1,597	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$886 (vs do-nothing $-1,833)
$1450	3d	6 Nov 2026	$7.65	1/1	$765	$7,650	$7,217	75%hist 83%	51%hist 45%	80%	+$1,925	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,021 (vs do-nothing $-1,698)
$1470	10d	13 Nov 2026	$12.05	1/1	$1,205	$3,615	$3,182	74%hist 83%	52%hist 45%	79%	+$707	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,461 (vs do-nothing $-1,258)
$1465	10d	13 Nov 2026	$13.15	1/1	$1,315	$3,945	$3,512	73%hist 83%	56%hist 45%	78%	+$684	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,571 (vs do-nothing $-1,148)
$1445	3d	6 Nov 2026	$8.85	1/1	$885	$8,850	$8,417	72%hist 83%	58%hist 45%	78%	+$1,929	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,141 (vs do-nothing $-1,578)
$1460	10d	13 Nov 2026	$14.60	1/1	$1,460	$4,380	$3,947	71%hist 83%	60%hist 45%	77%	+$733	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,716 (vs do-nothing $-1,003)
$1455	10d	13 Nov 2026	$16.25	1/1	$1,625	$4,875	$4,442	69%hist 66%	64%hist 55%	76%	+$807	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,881 (vs do-nothing $-838)
$1440	3d	6 Nov 2026	$10.10	1/1	$1,010	$10,100	$9,667	68%hist 66%	64%hist 55%	76%	+$1,794	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,266 (vs do-nothing $-1,453)
$1460	17d	20 Nov 2026	$21.75	1/1	$2,175	$3,838	$3,405	67%hist 66%	67%hist 55%	75%	+$650	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$2,431 (vs do-nothing $-288)
$1450	10d	13 Nov 2026	$17.90	1/1	$1,790	$5,370	$4,937	66%hist 66%	68%hist 55%	74%	+$844	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$2,046 (vs do-nothing $-673)

Show 29 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Per cycle	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	Touch	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Recover	Total P&L @ SS
$1460	24d	27 Nov 2026	$27.80	1/1	$2,780	$3,475	$3,042	66%hist 66%	71%hist 67%	74%	+$621	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$3,036 (vs do-nothing +$317)
$1435	3d	6 Nov 2026	$12.10	1/1	$1,210	$12,100	$11,667	65%hist 66%	71%hist 67%	74%	+$2,205	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,466 (vs do-nothing $-1,253)
$1445	10d	13 Nov 2026	$19.55	1/1	$1,955	$5,865	$5,432	64%hist 66%	73%hist 67%	73%	+$843	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$2,211 (vs do-nothing $-508)
$1440	10d	13 Nov 2026	$21.40	1/1	$2,140	$6,420	$5,987	62%hist 66%	77%hist 67%	72%	+$863	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$2,396 (vs do-nothing $-323)
$1430	3d	6 Nov 2026	$13.90	1/1	$1,390	$13,900	$13,467	61%hist 66%	79%hist 67%	72%	+$2,202	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,646 (vs do-nothing $-1,073)
$1440	17d	20 Nov 2026	$29.55	1/1	$2,955	$5,215	$4,781	60%hist 66%	82%hist 79%	71%	+$770	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$3,211 (vs do-nothing +$492)
$1435	10d	13 Nov 2026	$23.45	1/1	$2,345	$7,035	$6,602	60%hist 69%	82%hist 79%	71%	+$902	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$2,601 (vs do-nothing $-118)
$1440	24d	27 Nov 2026	$35.95	1/1	$3,595	$4,494	$4,060	59%hist 69%	84%hist 79%	71%	+$709	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$3,851 (vs do-nothing +$1,132)
$1430	10d	13 Nov 2026	$24.55	1/1	$2,455	$7,365	$6,932	58%hist 69%	87%hist 79%	70%	+$581	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$2,711 (vs do-nothing $-8)
$1425	3d	6 Nov 2026	$16.00	1/1	$1,600	$16,000	$15,567	57%hist 69%	86%hist 79%	69%	+$2,275	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,856 (vs do-nothing $-863)
$1425	10d	13 Nov 2026	$26.90	1/1	$2,690	$8,070	$7,637	55%hist 69%	92%hist 89%	68%	+$631	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$2,946 (vs do-nothing +$227)
$1420	3d	6 Nov 2026	$18.35	1/1	$1,835	$18,350	$17,917	54%hist 69%	94%hist 89%	68%	+$2,369	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,634 (vs do-nothing $-1,085)
$1420	10d	13 Nov 2026	$29.20	1/1	$2,920	$8,760	$8,327	53%hist 69%	96%hist 89%	67%	+$624	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$2,719 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$1420	24d	27 Nov 2026	$45.40	1/1	$4,540	$5,675	$5,242	53%hist 69%	97%hist 89%	68%	+$766	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$4,339 (vs do-nothing +$1,620)
$1420	17d	20 Nov 2026	$37.95	1/1	$3,795	$6,697	$6,264	53%hist 69%	97%hist 89%	67%	+$682	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$3,594 (vs do-nothing +$875)
$1415	10d	13 Nov 2026	$31.00	1/1	$3,100	$9,300	$8,867	51%hist 69%	100%hist 89%	66%	+$424	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$2,399 (vs do-nothing $-320)
$1415	3d	6 Nov 2026	$21.25	1/1	$2,125	$21,250	$20,817	50%	100%hist 89%	67%	+$2,780	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,424 (vs do-nothing $-1,295)
$1410	10d	13 Nov 2026	$34.55	1/1	$3,455	$10,365	$9,932	48%	100%hist 89%	65%	+$707	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$2,254 (vs do-nothing $-465)
$1400	24d	27 Nov 2026	$55.40	1/1	$5,540	$6,925	$6,492	46%	100%hist 89%	65%	+$694	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$3,339 (vs do-nothing +$620)
$1410	3d	6 Nov 2026	$22.95	1/1	$2,295	$22,950	$22,517	46%	100%hist 89%	66%	+$1,760	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,094 (vs do-nothing $-1,625)
$1405	10d	13 Nov 2026	$36.90	1/1	$3,690	$11,070	$10,637	46%	100%hist 89%	65%	+$587	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,989 (vs do-nothing $-730)
$1400	17d	20 Nov 2026	$48.85	1/1	$4,885	$8,621	$8,187	45%	100%hist 89%	64%	+$714	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$2,684 (vs do-nothing $-35)
$1400	10d	13 Nov 2026	$38.90	1/1	$3,890	$11,670	$11,237	44%	100%hist 89%	63%	+$320	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,689 (vs do-nothing $-1,030)
$1405	3d	6 Nov 2026	$25.80	1/1	$2,580	$25,800	$25,367	42%	100%hist 89%	65%	+$1,663	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$879 (vs do-nothing $-1,840)
$1395	10d	13 Nov 2026	$42.75	1/1	$4,275	$12,825	$12,392	41%	100%hist 89%	63%	+$567	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,574 (vs do-nothing $-1,145)
$1390	10d	13 Nov 2026	$45.65	1/1	$4,565	$13,695	$13,262	39%	100%hist 89%	62%	+$488	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,364 (vs do-nothing $-1,355)
$1400	3d	6 Nov 2026	$28.60	1/1	$2,860	$28,600	$28,167	39%	100%hist 89%	61%	+$1,296	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$659 (vs do-nothing $-2,060)
$1395	3d	6 Nov 2026	$30.55	1/1	$3,055	$30,550	$30,117	35%	100%hist 89%	62%	$-129	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$354 (vs do-nothing $-2,365)
$1390	3d	6 Nov 2026	$34.90	1/1	$3,490	$34,900	$34,467	32%	100%hist 89%	60%	+$649	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$289 (vs do-nothing $-2,430)

56 more priced, not eligible (safety, income floor or quote screens): shown for reference

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Per cycle	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	Touch	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Recover	Total P&L @ SS	Why not eligible
$1640	3d	6 Nov 2026	$0.02	1/1	$2	$20	$-413	99+%hist 96%	0%hist 3%	100%	+$12	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$258 (vs do-nothing $-2,461)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1600	3d	6 Nov 2026	$0.06	1/1	$6	$60	$-373	99+%hist 96%	1%hist 3%	100%	+$48	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$262 (vs do-nothing $-2,457)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1580	3d	6 Nov 2026	$0.03	1/1	$3	$30	$-403	99+%hist 96%	1%hist 3%	100%	+$10	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$259 (vs do-nothing $-2,460)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1740	17d	20 Nov 2026	$0.01	1/1	$1	$2	$-432	99%hist 96%	1%hist 3%	99%	$-10	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$257 (vs do-nothing $-2,462)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1640	10d	13 Nov 2026	$0.03	1/1	$3	$9	$-424	99%hist 96%	1%hist 3%	99%	$-6	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$259 (vs do-nothing $-2,460)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1720	17d	20 Nov 2026	$0.01	1/1	$1	$2	$-432	99%hist 96%	2%hist 3%	99%	$-13	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$257 (vs do-nothing $-2,462)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1560	3d	6 Nov 2026	$0.05	1/1	$5	$50	$-383	99%hist 96%	2%hist 3%	99%	+$9	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$261 (vs do-nothing $-2,458)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1700	17d	20 Nov 2026	$0.24	1/1	$24	$42	$-391	99%hist 96%	2%hist 3%	99%	+$22	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$280 (vs do-nothing $-2,439)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1550	3d	6 Nov 2026	$0.11	1/1	$11	$110	$-323	99%hist 96%	2%hist 3%	99%	+$48	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$267 (vs do-nothing $-2,452)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1620	10d	13 Nov 2026	$0.30	1/1	$30	$90	$-343	99%hist 96%	2%hist 3%	99%	+$57	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$286 (vs do-nothing $-2,433)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1680	17d	20 Nov 2026	$0.40	1/1	$40	$71	$-363	99%hist 96%	3%hist 3%	99%	+$42	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$296 (vs do-nothing $-2,423)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1540	3d	6 Nov 2026	$0.16	1/1	$16	$160	$-273	98%hist 96%	3%hist 3%	98%	+$65	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$272 (vs do-nothing $-2,447)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1660	17d	20 Nov 2026	$0.65	1/1	$65	$115	$-319	98%hist 96%	4%hist 3%	98%	+$72	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$321 (vs do-nothing $-2,398)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1600	10d	13 Nov 2026	$0.56	1/1	$56	$168	$-265	98%hist 96%	4%hist 3%	98%	+$99	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$312 (vs do-nothing $-2,407)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1530	3d	6 Nov 2026	$0.18	1/1	$18	$180	$-253	98%hist 96%	4%hist 3%	98%	+$32	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$274 (vs do-nothing $-2,445)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1640	17d	20 Nov 2026	$0.83	1/1	$83	$146	$-287	98%hist 96%	5%hist 3%	98%	+$81	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$339 (vs do-nothing $-2,380)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1590	10d	13 Nov 2026	$0.67	1/1	$67	$201	$-232	97%hist 96%	5%hist 3%	97%	+$103	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$323 (vs do-nothing $-2,396)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1640	24d	27 Nov 2026	$1.50	1/1	$150	$188	$-246	97%hist 96%	6%hist 3%	97%	+$118	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$406 (vs do-nothing $-2,313)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1520	3d	6 Nov 2026	$0.67	1/1	$67	$670	$237	97%hist 96%	6%hist 3%	97%	+$432	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$323 (vs do-nothing $-2,396)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1620	17d	20 Nov 2026	$1.37	1/1	$137	$242	$-192	97%hist 96%	7%hist 3%	97%	+$140	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$393 (vs do-nothing $-2,326)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1580	10d	13 Nov 2026	$0.84	1/1	$84	$252	$-181	97%hist 96%	7%hist 3%	97%	+$114	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$340 (vs do-nothing $-2,379)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1500	3d	6 Nov 2026	$1.30	1/1	$130	$1,300	$867	96%hist 96%	8%hist 3%	96%	+$986	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$386 (vs do-nothing $-2,333)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1570	10d	13 Nov 2026	$0.99	1/1	$99	$297	$-136	96%hist 96%	8%hist 3%	96%	+$107	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$355 (vs do-nothing $-2,364)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1510	3d	6 Nov 2026	$0.60	1/1	$60	$600	$167	96%hist 96%	8%hist 3%	96%	+$214	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$316 (vs do-nothing $-2,403)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1620	24d	27 Nov 2026	$2.36	1/1	$236	$295	$-138	96%hist 96%	9%hist 3%	96%	+$173	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$492 (vs do-nothing $-2,227)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1600	17d	20 Nov 2026	$1.90	1/1	$190	$335	$-98	95%hist 96%	9%hist 3%	96%	+$174	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$446 (vs do-nothing $-2,273)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1560	10d	13 Nov 2026	$1.32	1/1	$132	$396	$-37	95%hist 96%	10%hist 13%	95%	+$135	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$388 (vs do-nothing $-2,331)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1600	24d	27 Nov 2026	$3.10	1/1	$310	$388	$-46	94%hist 96%	12%hist 13%	94%	+$187	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$566 (vs do-nothing $-2,153)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1580	17d	20 Nov 2026	$2.70	1/1	$270	$476	$43	94%hist 96%	13%hist 13%	94%	+$220	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$526 (vs do-nothing $-2,193)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1550	10d	13 Nov 2026	$1.84	1/1	$184	$552	$119	94%hist 96%	13%hist 13%	94%	+$197	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$440 (vs do-nothing $-2,279)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1495	3d	6 Nov 2026	$1.37	1/1	$137	$1,370	$937	93%hist 96%	15%hist 13%	93%	+$504	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$393 (vs do-nothing $-2,326)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1540	10d	13 Nov 2026	$2.40	1/1	$240	$720	$287	92%hist 96%	16%hist 13%	93%	+$243	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$496 (vs do-nothing $-2,223)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1490	3d	6 Nov 2026	$1.43	1/1	$143	$1,430	$997	92%hist 96%	16%hist 13%	92%	+$449	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$399 (vs do-nothing $-2,320)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1580	24d	27 Nov 2026	$4.45	1/1	$445	$556	$123	92%hist 96%	17%hist 13%	92%	+$241	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$701 (vs do-nothing $-2,018)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1560	17d	20 Nov 2026	$3.90	1/1	$390	$688	$255	91%hist 96%	17%hist 13%	92%	+$280	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$646 (vs do-nothing $-2,073)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1530	10d	13 Nov 2026	$3.05	1/1	$305	$915	$482	91%hist 96%	19%hist 13%	91%	+$279	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$561 (vs do-nothing $-2,158)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1485	3d	6 Nov 2026	$2.15	1/1	$215	$2,150	$1,717	90%hist 96%	19%hist 13%	91%	+$878	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$471 (vs do-nothing $-2,248)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1560	24d	27 Nov 2026	$6.15	1/1	$615	$769	$335	89%hist 86%	23%hist 22%	90%	+$288	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$871 (vs do-nothing $-1,848)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1480	3d	6 Nov 2026	$2.61	1/1	$261	$2,610	$2,177	89%hist 86%	22%hist 22%	90%	+$1,008	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$517 (vs do-nothing $-2,202)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1520	10d	13 Nov 2026	$3.70	1/1	$370	$1,110	$677	89%hist 86%	23%hist 22%	90%	+$269	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$626 (vs do-nothing $-2,093)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1540	17d	20 Nov 2026	$5.70	1/1	$570	$1,006	$573	88%hist 86%	24%hist 22%	89%	+$364	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$826 (vs do-nothing $-1,893)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1475	3d	6 Nov 2026	$2.98	1/1	$298	$2,980	$2,547	87%hist 86%	26%hist 22%	88%	+$971	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$554 (vs do-nothing $-2,165)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1510	10d	13 Nov 2026	$4.75	1/1	$475	$1,425	$992	86%hist 86%	27%hist 22%	88%	+$323	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$731 (vs do-nothing $-1,988)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1540	24d	27 Nov 2026	$8.65	1/1	$865	$1,081	$648	86%hist 86%	29%hist 22%	87%	+$362	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,121 (vs do-nothing $-1,598)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1520	17d	20 Nov 2026	$8.20	1/1	$820	$1,447	$1,014	84%hist 86%	32%hist 31%	86%	+$454	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,076 (vs do-nothing $-1,643)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1500	10d	13 Nov 2026	$6.15	1/1	$615	$1,845	$1,412	84%hist 86%	32%hist 31%	86%	+$457	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$871 (vs do-nothing $-1,848)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1495	10d	13 Nov 2026	$6.90	1/1	$690	$2,070	$1,637	83%hist 86%	35%hist 31%	85%	+$490	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$946 (vs do-nothing $-1,773)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1520	24d	27 Nov 2026	$12.10	1/1	$1,210	$1,512	$1,079	82%hist 86%	38%hist 31%	84%	+$457	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,466 (vs do-nothing $-1,253)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1490	10d	13 Nov 2026	$7.70	1/1	$770	$2,310	$1,877	81%hist 86%	38%hist 31%	84%	+$517	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,026 (vs do-nothing $-1,693)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1485	10d	13 Nov 2026	$8.60	1/1	$860	$2,580	$2,147	80%hist 83%	41%hist 40%	83%	+$549	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,116 (vs do-nothing $-1,603)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1500	17d	20 Nov 2026	$11.80	1/1	$1,180	$2,082	$1,649	80%hist 83%	42%hist 40%	83%	+$578	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,436 (vs do-nothing $-1,283)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1480	10d	13 Nov 2026	$9.70	1/1	$970	$2,910	$2,477	78%hist 83%	45%hist 40%	82%	+$615	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,226 (vs do-nothing $-1,493)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1500	24d	27 Nov 2026	$16.20	1/1	$1,620	$2,025	$1,592	77%hist 83%	48%hist 40%	81%	+$516	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,876 (vs do-nothing $-843)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1475	10d	13 Nov 2026	$10.65	1/1	$1,065	$3,195	$2,762	76%hist 83%	48%hist 40%	80%	+$608	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,321 (vs do-nothing $-1,398)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1480	17d	20 Nov 2026	$16.00	1/1	$1,600	$2,824	$2,390	74%hist 83%	53%hist 45%	79%	+$603	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,856 (vs do-nothing $-863)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1480	24d	27 Nov 2026	$21.65	1/1	$2,165	$2,706	$2,273	72%hist 83%	59%hist 45%	78%	+$604	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$2,421 (vs do-nothing $-298)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract

Per cycle = bid x 100 x contracts, the cash this expiry pays. Touch = P(strike trades before expiry), with the graded record's hist pill. Recover = months of this income to close the hole to CC-SS. Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 1 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-11-04 04:19