FORTRESS FIGHT: MARA-LC13 @ $7.12

BE SS: $16.75 | CC-SS: $10.93 | 400 contracts (40,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

MARA-LC13MAX 100 @ $7.12 UNDERWATER $9.63 (57.5% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY

MARA reports 2026-11-04 (Wed), in 7 days. The recommended CC (2d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-11-04.

400 contracts (40,000 sh) | BE SS: $16.75 | CC-SS: $10.93 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $13 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $3.752/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$150,000	(ND $3.75 + SW $0) x 40000
Normal income ref	$42,000/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$-84,800	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$21,000/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$42,000/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
3.6 mo to earn back $150,000

ML VELOCITY
3.6 mo to earn back $150,000

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $10.93 (probe: $11C 16d) brings only $2,250/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 Campaign ledger: seeded, nothing tracked yet. Open short calls and banked credits appear here from the next cycle on; the banked-floor (info) shows how far premium would ratchet the floor, but the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYOVERSOLD · %B 3 (live) · RSI 37 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 30 · %B 26 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $11.04 (+55%) · daily UBB $11.54 · 1-wk expected move ±$1 (chain IV)

SETUPSpring loaded, not ignited: 🎯 or 💎 at short DTE, normal tripwires. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-11-04: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 100 contracts at $7.50 / 2d. This is the safest strike (survival 73%, breach 27%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($21,000/mo); it brings $16,500/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 100 × $11/23d (96% survival, $652/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $33,174 (22% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $17, recoverable in 0.8 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 100 contracts realizes $-21,250 and cuts bleed by $0/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 400 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: THIS FRIDAY · 30 Oct 2026 (2d) · sell 100 × $7.50, 73% survival, $16,500/mo (E[net] $11,258/mo).
The two weekly tracks below are ranked by E[net]/mo = income kept when unchallenged − the net cash cost and forgone cycle when it is. Each has its own full ladder.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
THIS FRIDAY 🏆	30 Oct 2026 · 2d	100 × $7.50	73%	$16,500	$11,258
NEXT FRIDAY ⚡	6 Nov 2026 · 9d	100 × $8	78%	$6,333	$1,852

E[net] arithmetic on the grand pick: keep $1,100 with probability 68%; on the 32% touch you roll, paying $1,948 to close and taking $3,035 back from the best priced door (net cash $0) and parking about one cycle of income. Charging the FULL buyback with no door credit (the pre-2026-07-25 model) contradicted the campaign simulation, which prices the same event as a cash-neutral even roll.

📅 THIS FRIDAY · 30 Oct 2026 · 2d · E[net] $11,258/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 100 × $7.50 (50% normal), 73% survival, breach 27%, $16,500/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $8 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 89% (breach 27% → 11%) for $12,000/mo less (73% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $8 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect MARA to stay flat-to-down near term.

MARA spot $7.12 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

🛡 safe yield

100 × $9

6 Nov

26.4%

92%hist 95%

18%hist 13%

+2pp

$600

$2,000

-$14,500

$18,674

Sell 100 × $9 26.4% OTM over spot $7.12 6 Nov 2026 (9d, $0.07 mid)

= $600 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,000/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $9)

92%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $9.06)

92%

EV / mo

+$836

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+2pp

45% whole by 9mo vs 43% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.9/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$1,728/mo

median; plan ~$1,175/mo after 68% keep · $12,442 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.1 mo [1.0-4.6], measured ONLY among the 45% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

11%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$4,412

Free roll-up

+$0/wk

Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)

$10 @ 75% POP

68% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 100 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $0.71/sh now → $0.50 mid-life (likely $0.41–$0.68) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.44/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 332 simulated challenges: the $9 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $9 (overshoots $0.28). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (100 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$9	13 Nov 2026	12d left	+$0.25/sh	+$2,525 cycle +$3,125 [+$2,432…+$3,470] · 100% credit	68% surv 55%	-$45,354 NOT cap gain +$39,446
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$9	13 Nov 2026	12d left	+$0.09/sh	+$939 cycle +$1,539 [+$737…+$1,731] · 98% credit	72% surv 62%	-$39,659 NOT cap gain +$45,141
Max even-money escape in the band	~$10	20 Nov 2026	18d left	+$0.08/sh	+$784 cycle +$1,384 [+$283…+$1,773] · 86% credit	75% surv 68%	-$30,234 NOT cap gain +$54,566
SS $17 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,000/mo
vs 50% target ($21,000/mo)	-90%
vs normal income ($42,000/mo)	5% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,000/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $9 is $2 below CC-SS $10.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$18,674
… as % of IC ($150,000)	12.4%
… as % of ML ($150,000)	12.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.4 mo
Surgical close (100 ct)	$-21,250

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.06 collected) or spot ≥ $9.06 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $9)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $11.54 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $8.91	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $9-9.06	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $9.06	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.48 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$9.00 (1.5σ)	$600	$-47,879	+$36,921	+$500
+2.5%	$9.22 (1.7σ)	$-1,650	$-45,818	+$38,982	-$1,750
+5%	$9.45 (1.8σ)	$-3,900	$-43,757	+$41,043	-$4,000
SS (= V-bounce)	$16.75 (7.6σ)	$-76,900	$-29,389	+$55,411	-$59,500

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $10.93, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-84,800

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$72,950

− CC assignment net of premium (100 × $9): -$18,674

+ Conservative CC premium (300 × $15): +$300

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,224 (+$54,576 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,450 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,774, the opportunity cost of earning $2,000/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $11.04 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$19,800, position total $-29,193 (+$55,607 vs today)

▸

33% normal ← lean

100 × $8

30 Oct

12.4%

89%hist 86%

22%hist 23%

+3pp

$300

$4,500

-$12,000

$28,974

Sell 100 × $8 12.4% OTM over spot $7.12 30 Oct 2026 (2d, $0.04 mid)

= $300 credit for the 2d cycle → $4,500/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $8)

89%

Breach risk

11%

POP (stays ≤ $8.04)

90%

EV / mo

+$1,210

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+3pp

51% whole by 9mo vs 48% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~3.5/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$3,291/mo

median; plan ~$2,238/mo after 68% keep · $17,385 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [1.1-3.7], measured ONLY among the 51% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,838

Free roll-up

+$1/wk

Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)

$10 @ 88% POP

86% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 100 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $0.30/sh now → $0.21 mid-life (likely $0.23–$0.47) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.03/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 254 simulated challenges: the $8 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $8 (overshoots $0.30). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (100 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$8	6 Nov 2026	8d left	+$0.33/sh	+$3,346 cycle +$3,646 [+$3,178…+$3,585] · 100% credit	68% surv 53%	-$63,993 NOT cap gain +$20,807
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$9	20 Nov 2026	22d left	+$0.17/sh	+$1,656 cycle +$1,956 [+$428…+$1,654] · 81% credit	80% surv 75%	-$39,242 NOT cap gain +$45,558
Max even-money escape in the band	~$10	20 Nov 2026	22d left	+$0.07/sh	+$749 cycle +$1,049 [-$715…+$701] · 53% credit	83% surv 81%	-$30,569 NOT cap gain +$54,231
SS $17 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$9	6 Nov 2026	8d left	+$0.02/sh	+$226 cycle +$526 [-$1,021…+$140] · 34% credit	80% surv 76%	-$50,252 NOT cap gain +$34,548
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$10	20 Nov 2026	22d left	-$0.00/sh	-$25 cycle +$275 [-$1,603…-$104] · 20% credit	88% surv 86%	-$21,763 NOT cap gain +$63,037
budget: banked $300 debit $25 (8% used ≈ 0.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$275 cash · rolled 100 ct earn ≈ $2,881/mo while parked; 300 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$4,500/mo
vs 50% target ($21,000/mo)	-79%
vs normal income ($42,000/mo)	11% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$4,500/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $8 is $3 below CC-SS $10.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$28,974
… as % of IC ($150,000)	19.3%
… as % of ML ($150,000)	19.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.7 mo
Surgical close (100 ct)	$-21,250

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.03 collected) or spot ≥ $8.04 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $8)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $11.54 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $7.92	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $8-8.04	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $8.04	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.48 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$8.00 (1.5σ)	$300	$-67,339	+$17,461	+$200
+2.5%	$8.20 (1.8σ)	$-1,700	$-65,507	+$19,293	-$1,800
+5%	$8.40 (2.1σ)	$-3,700	$-63,675	+$21,125	-$3,800
SS (= V-bounce)	$16.75 (16.0σ)	$-87,200	$-39,689	+$45,111	-$69,800

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $10.93, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-84,800

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$72,950

− CC assignment net of premium (100 × $8): -$28,974

+ Conservative CC premium (300 × $15): +$300

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-40,524 (+$44,276 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,450 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-29,074, the opportunity cost of earning $4,500/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $11.04 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$30,100, position total $-39,493 (+$45,307 vs today)

▸

🎯 50% normal

100 × $7.50

30 Oct

5.3%

73%hist 83%

55%hist 44%

+8pp

$1,100

$16,500

—

$33,174

Sell 100 × $7.50 5.3% OTM over spot $7.12 30 Oct 2026 (2d, $0.11 mid)

= $1,100 credit for the 2d cycle → $16,500/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $7.50)

73%

Breach risk

27%

POP (stays ≤ $7.62)

78%

EV / mo

+$3,906

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+8pp

53% whole by 9mo vs 46% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~9.5/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$6,893/mo

median; plan ~$4,687/mo after 68% keep · $39,340 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.4 mo [1.0-4.1], measured ONLY among the 53% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

32%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$848

Free roll-up

+$1/wk

Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)

$10 @ 92% POP

91% survival

Buyback gross: $0.28/sh now → $0.19 mid-life (likely $0.24–$0.45) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.08/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 953 simulated challenges: the $8 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $8 (overshoots $0.28). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (100 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$8	6 Nov 2026	8d left	+$0.30/sh	+$3,035 cycle +$4,135 [+$2,844…+$3,068] · 100% credit	68% surv 53%	-$73,084 NOT cap gain +$11,716
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$9	20 Nov 2026	22d left	+$0.12/sh	+$1,250 cycle +$2,350 [-$41…+$1,090] · 74% credit	81% surv 77%	-$48,429 NOT cap gain +$36,371
Max even-money escape in the band	~$9	20 Nov 2026	22d left	+$0.04/sh	+$410 cycle +$1,510 [-$1,105…+$197] · 37% credit	85% surv 82%	-$39,688 NOT cap gain +$45,112
SS $17 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$8	6 Nov 2026	8d left	+$0.00/sh	+$11 cycle +$1,111 [-$1,224…-$184] · 11% credit	81% surv 77%	-$59,247 NOT cap gain +$25,553
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$10	20 Nov 2026	22d left	-$0.08/sh	-$762 cycle +$338 [-$2,600…-$1,051]	92% surv 91%	-$21,700 NOT cap gain +$63,100
budget: banked $1,100 debit $762 (69% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$338 cash · rolled 100 ct earn ≈ $1,617/mo while parked; 300 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$16,500/mo
vs 50% target ($21,000/mo)	-21%
vs normal income ($42,000/mo)	39% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$16,500/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $7.50 is $3 below CC-SS $10.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$33,174
… as % of IC ($150,000)	22.1%
… as % of ML ($150,000)	22.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.8 mo
Surgical close (100 ct)	$-21,250

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $7.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $8)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $11.54 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $7.42	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $7-7.62	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $7.62	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.48 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$7.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,100	$-76,119	+$8,681	+$1,000
+2.5%	$7.69 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-775	$-74,402	+$10,398	-$875
+5%	$7.88 (1.3σ)	$-2,650	$-72,684	+$12,116	-$2,750
SS (= V-bounce)	$16.75 (16.0σ)	$-91,400	$-43,889	+$40,911	-$74,000

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $10.93, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-84,800

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$72,950

− CC assignment net of premium (100 × $7.50): -$33,174

+ Conservative CC premium (300 × $15): +$300

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-44,724 (+$40,076 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,450 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-33,274, the opportunity cost of earning $16,500/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $11.04 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$34,300, position total $-43,693 (+$41,107 vs today)

▸

100% normal

100 × $7.50

30 Oct

5.3%

73%hist 83%

55%hist 44%

+8pp

$1,100

$16,500

+$0

$33,174

Sell 100 × $7.50 5.3% OTM over spot $7.12 30 Oct 2026 (2d, $0.11 mid)

= $1,100 credit for the 2d cycle → $16,500/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $7.50)

73%

Breach risk

27%

POP (stays ≤ $7.62)

78%

EV / mo

+$3,906

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+8pp

53% whole by 9mo vs 46% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~9.5/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$6,893/mo

median; plan ~$4,687/mo after 68% keep · $39,340 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.4 mo [1.0-4.1], measured ONLY among the 53% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

32%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$848

Free roll-up

+$1/wk

Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)

$10 @ 92% POP

91% survival

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (100 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$8	6 Nov 2026	8d left	+$0.30/sh	+$3,035 cycle +$4,135 [+$2,844…+$3,068] · 100% credit	68% surv 53%	-$73,084 NOT cap gain +$11,716
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$9	20 Nov 2026	22d left	+$0.12/sh	+$1,250 cycle +$2,350 [-$41…+$1,090] · 74% credit	81% surv 77%	-$48,429 NOT cap gain +$36,371
Max even-money escape in the band	~$9	20 Nov 2026	22d left	+$0.04/sh	+$410 cycle +$1,510 [-$1,105…+$197] · 37% credit	85% surv 82%	-$39,688 NOT cap gain +$45,112
SS $17 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$8	6 Nov 2026	8d left	+$0.00/sh	+$11 cycle +$1,111 [-$1,224…-$184] · 11% credit	81% surv 77%	-$59,247 NOT cap gain +$25,553
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$10	20 Nov 2026	22d left	-$0.08/sh	-$762 cycle +$338 [-$2,600…-$1,051]	92% surv 91%	-$21,700 NOT cap gain +$63,100
budget: banked $1,100 debit $762 (69% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$338 cash · rolled 100 ct earn ≈ $1,617/mo while parked; 300 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$16,500/mo
vs 50% target ($21,000/mo)	-21%
vs normal income ($42,000/mo)	39% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$16,500/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $7.50 is $3 below CC-SS $10.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$33,174
… as % of IC ($150,000)	22.1%
… as % of ML ($150,000)	22.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.8 mo
Surgical close (100 ct)	$-21,250

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $7.42	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $7-7.62	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $7.62	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.48 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$7.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,100	$-76,119	+$8,681	+$1,000
+2.5%	$7.69 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-775	$-74,402	+$10,398	-$875
+5%	$7.88 (1.3σ)	$-2,650	$-72,684	+$12,116	-$2,750
SS (= V-bounce)	$16.75 (16.0σ)	$-91,400	$-43,889	+$40,911	-$74,000

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $10.93, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-84,800

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$72,950

− CC assignment net of premium (100 × $7.50): -$33,174

+ Conservative CC premium (300 × $15): +$300

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-44,724 (+$40,076 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,450 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-33,274, the opportunity cost of earning $16,500/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $11.04 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$34,300, position total $-43,693 (+$41,107 vs today)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on MARA are the tiebreakers.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 6 Nov 2026 · 9d · E[net] $1,852/mo

🎯 Engine pick: sell 100 × $8 (50% normal), 78% survival, breach 22%, $6,333/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $8.50 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 86% (breach 22% → 14%) for $2,667/mo less (42% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $8.50 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect MARA to stay flat-to-down near term.

MARA spot $7.12 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

🛡 safe yield

100 × $9

6 Nov

26.4%

92%hist 95%

18%hist 13%

+2pp

$600

$2,000

-$4,333

$18,674

Sell 100 × $9 26.4% OTM over spot $7.12 6 Nov 2026 (9d, $0.07 mid)

= $600 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,000/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $9)

92%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $9.06)

92%

EV / mo

+$836

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+2pp

45% whole by 9mo vs 43% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.9/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$1,728/mo

median; plan ~$1,175/mo after 68% keep · $12,442 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.1 mo [1.0-4.6], measured ONLY among the 45% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

11%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$4,412

Free roll-up

+$0/wk

Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)

$10 @ 75% POP

68% survival

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (100 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$9	13 Nov 2026	12d left	+$0.25/sh	+$2,525 cycle +$3,125 [+$2,432…+$3,470] · 100% credit	68% surv 55%	-$45,354 NOT cap gain +$39,446
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$9	13 Nov 2026	12d left	+$0.09/sh	+$939 cycle +$1,539 [+$737…+$1,731] · 98% credit	72% surv 62%	-$39,659 NOT cap gain +$45,141
Max even-money escape in the band	~$10	20 Nov 2026	18d left	+$0.08/sh	+$784 cycle +$1,384 [+$283…+$1,773] · 86% credit	75% surv 68%	-$30,234 NOT cap gain +$54,566
SS $17 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,000/mo
vs 50% target ($21,000/mo)	-90%
vs normal income ($42,000/mo)	5% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,000/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $9 is $2 below CC-SS $10.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$18,674
… as % of IC ($150,000)	12.4%
… as % of ML ($150,000)	12.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.4 mo
Surgical close (100 ct)	$-21,250

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $8.91	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $9-9.06	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $9.06	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.48 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$9.00 (1.5σ)	$600	$-47,879	+$36,921	+$500
+2.5%	$9.22 (1.7σ)	$-1,650	$-45,818	+$38,982	-$1,750
+5%	$9.45 (1.8σ)	$-3,900	$-43,757	+$41,043	-$4,000
SS (= V-bounce)	$16.75 (7.6σ)	$-76,900	$-29,389	+$55,411	-$59,500

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $10.93, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-84,800

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$72,950

− CC assignment net of premium (100 × $9): -$18,674

+ Conservative CC premium (300 × $15): +$300

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,224 (+$54,576 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,450 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,774, the opportunity cost of earning $2,000/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $11.04 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$19,800, position total $-29,193 (+$55,607 vs today)

▸

33% normal ← lean

100 × $8.50

6 Nov

19.4%

86%hist 86%

29%hist 23%

+2pp

$1,100

$3,667

-$2,667

$23,174

Sell 100 × $8.50 19.4% OTM over spot $7.12 6 Nov 2026 (9d, $0.12 mid)

= $1,100 credit for the 9d cycle → $3,667/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $8.50)

86%

Breach risk

14%

POP (stays ≤ $8.62)

88%

EV / mo

+$1,377

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+2pp

47% whole by 9mo vs 45% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.6/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$2,421/mo

median; plan ~$1,646/mo after 68% keep · $15,820 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.4 mo [1.2-3.9], measured ONLY among the 47% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

21%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$3,496

Free roll-up

+$0/wk

Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)

$10 @ 80% POP

75% survival

Buyback gross: $0.65/sh now → $0.46 mid-life (likely $0.40–$0.69) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.35/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 618 simulated challenges: the $8 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $9 (overshoots $0.28). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (100 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$8	13 Nov 2026	12d left	+$0.23/sh	+$2,325 cycle +$3,425 [+$2,022…+$3,043] · 100% credit	68% surv 54%	-$54,635 NOT cap gain +$30,165
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$9	13 Nov 2026	12d left	+$0.07/sh	+$734 cycle +$1,834 [+$303…+$1,355] · 92% credit	72% surv 62%	-$48,944 NOT cap gain +$35,856
Max even-money escape in the band	~$9	20 Nov 2026	18d left	+$0.05/sh	+$524 cycle +$1,624 [-$303…+$1,228] · 63% credit	76% surv 69%	-$39,574 NOT cap gain +$45,226
SS $17 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$10	20 Nov 2026	18d left	-$0.08/sh	-$810 cycle +$290 [-$1,892…-$239] · 20% credit	80% surv 75%	-$31,329 NOT cap gain +$53,471
budget: banked $1,100 debit $810 (74% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$290 cash · rolled 100 ct earn ≈ $6,310/mo while parked; 300 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$3,667/mo
vs 50% target ($21,000/mo)	-83%
vs normal income ($42,000/mo)	9% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,667/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $8.50 is $2 below CC-SS $10.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$23,174
… as % of IC ($150,000)	15.4%
… as % of ML ($150,000)	15.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.6 mo
Surgical close (100 ct)	$-21,300

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $8.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $8)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $11.54 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $8.41	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $8-8.62	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $8.62	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.48 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$8.50 (1.1σ)	$1,100	$-56,959	+$27,841	+$1,000
+2.5%	$8.71 (1.3σ)	$-1,025	$-55,013	+$29,787	-$1,125
+5%	$8.93 (1.4σ)	$-3,150	$-53,066	+$31,734	-$3,250
SS (= V-bounce)	$16.75 (7.6σ)	$-81,400	$-33,889	+$50,911	-$64,000

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $10.93, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-84,800

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$72,950

− CC assignment net of premium (100 × $8.50): -$23,174

+ Conservative CC premium (300 × $15): +$300

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-34,724 (+$50,076 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,450 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,274, the opportunity cost of earning $3,667/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $11.04 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$24,300, position total $-33,693 (+$51,107 vs today)

▸

🎯 50% normal

100 × $8

6 Nov

12.4%

78%hist 83%

47%hist 40%

+4pp

$1,900

$6,333

—

$27,374

Sell 100 × $8 12.4% OTM over spot $7.12 6 Nov 2026 (9d, $0.20 mid)

= $1,900 credit for the 9d cycle → $6,333/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $8)

78%

Breach risk

22%

POP (stays ≤ $8.20)

82%

EV / mo

+$1,831

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+4pp

49% whole by 9mo vs 46% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~2.6/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$3,276/mo

median; plan ~$2,228/mo after 68% keep · $20,935 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.4 mo [1.2-4.2], measured ONLY among the 49% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

34%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,297

Free roll-up

+$0/wk

Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)

$10 @ 85% POP

82% survival

Buyback gross: $0.59/sh now → $0.42 mid-life (likely $0.44–$0.69) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.23/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,017 simulated challenges: the $8 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $8 (overshoots $0.28). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (100 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$8	13 Nov 2026	12d left	+$0.21/sh	+$2,131 cycle +$4,031 [+$1,695…+$2,446] · 100% credit	68% surv 54%	-$63,608 NOT cap gain +$21,192
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$8	20 Nov 2026	18d left	+$0.19/sh	+$1,932 cycle +$3,832 [+$1,167…+$2,243] · 98% credit	72% surv 62%	-$56,526 NOT cap gain +$28,274
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$8	13 Nov 2026	12d left	+$0.05/sh	+$540 cycle +$2,440 [-$30…+$747] · 72% credit	73% surv 63%	-$57,918 NOT cap gain +$26,882
Max even-money escape in the band	~$9	20 Nov 2026	18d left	+$0.03/sh	+$280 cycle +$2,180 [-$772…+$408] · 37% credit	76% surv 70%	-$48,598 NOT cap gain +$36,202
SS $17 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$10	20 Nov 2026	18d left	-$0.18/sh	-$1,830 cycle +$70 [-$3,402…-$1,834] · 2% credit	85% surv 82%	-$31,549 NOT cap gain +$53,251
budget: banked $1,900 debit $1,830 (96% used ≈ 1.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$70 cash · rolled 100 ct earn ≈ $3,944/mo while parked; 300 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$6,333/mo
vs 50% target ($21,000/mo)	-70%
vs normal income ($42,000/mo)	15% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$6,333/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $8 is $3 below CC-SS $10.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$27,374
… as % of IC ($150,000)	18.2%
… as % of ML ($150,000)	18.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.7 mo
Surgical close (100 ct)	$-21,300

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.19 collected) or spot ≥ $8.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $8)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $11.54 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $7.92	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $8-8.20	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $8.20	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.48 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$8.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,900	$-65,739	+$19,061	+$1,800
+2.5%	$8.20 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-100	$-63,907	+$20,893	-$200
+5%	$8.40 (1.0σ)	$-2,100	$-62,075	+$22,725	-$2,200
SS (= V-bounce)	$16.75 (7.6σ)	$-85,600	$-38,089	+$46,711	-$68,200

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $10.93, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-84,800

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$72,950

− CC assignment net of premium (100 × $8): -$27,374

+ Conservative CC premium (300 × $15): +$300

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-38,924 (+$45,876 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,450 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-27,474, the opportunity cost of earning $6,333/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $11.04 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$28,500, position total $-37,893 (+$46,907 vs today)

▸

100% normal

100 × $7.50

6 Nov

5.3%

65%hist 66%

74%hist 68%

+5pp

$3,300

$11,000

+$4,667

$30,974

Sell 100 × $7.50 5.3% OTM over spot $7.12 6 Nov 2026 (9d, $0.34 mid)

= $3,300 credit for the 9d cycle → $11,000/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $7.50)

65%

Breach risk

35%

POP (stays ≤ $7.84)

74%

EV / mo

+$2,348

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+5pp

49% whole by 9mo vs 44% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~5.2/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$4,074/mo

median; plan ~$2,771/mo after 68% keep · $26,420 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.5 mo [1.3-4.3], measured ONLY among the 49% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

60%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$514

Free roll-up

+$0/wk

Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)

$10 @ 91% POP

90% survival

Buyback gross: $0.54/sh now → $0.38 mid-life (likely $0.49–$0.67) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.33/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.05/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,785 simulated challenges: the $8 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $8 (overshoots $0.25). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (100 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$8	13 Nov 2026	12d left	+$0.19/sh	+$1,945 cycle +$5,245 [+$1,419…+$1,799] · 100% credit	68% surv 54%	-$71,974 NOT cap gain +$12,826
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$8	20 Nov 2026	18d left	+$0.16/sh	+$1,646 cycle +$4,946 [+$731…+$1,309] · 96% credit	72% surv 63%	-$64,992 NOT cap gain +$19,808
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$8	13 Nov 2026	12d left	+$0.04/sh	+$356 cycle +$3,656 [-$325…+$94] · 32% credit	73% surv 64%	-$66,282 NOT cap gain +$18,518
Max even-money escape in the band	~$8	20 Nov 2026	18d left	+$0.01/sh	+$53 cycle +$3,353 [-$1,186…-$419] · 13% credit	77% surv 71%	-$57,005 NOT cap gain +$27,795
SS $17 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$10	20 Nov 2026	18d left	-$0.26/sh	-$2,576 cycle +$724 [-$4,532…-$3,320]	91% surv 90%	-$30,894 NOT cap gain +$53,906
budget: banked $3,300 debit $2,576 (78% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$724 cash · rolled 100 ct earn ≈ $2,063/mo while parked; 300 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$11,000/mo
vs 50% target ($21,000/mo)	-48%
vs normal income ($42,000/mo)	26% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$11,000/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $7.50 is $3 below CC-SS $10.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$30,974
… as % of IC ($150,000)	20.6%
… as % of ML ($150,000)	20.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.7 mo
Surgical close (100 ct)	$-21,300

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.33 collected) or spot ≥ $7.84 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $8)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $11.54 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $7.42	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $7-7.84	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $7.84	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.48 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$7.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$3,300	$-73,919	+$10,881	+$3,200
+2.5%	$7.69 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,425	$-72,202	+$12,598	+$1,325
+5%	$7.88 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-450	$-70,484	+$14,316	-$550
SS (= V-bounce)	$16.75 (7.6σ)	$-89,200	$-41,689	+$43,111	-$71,800

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $10.93, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-84,800

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$72,950

− CC assignment net of premium (100 × $7.50): -$30,974

+ Conservative CC premium (300 × $15): +$300

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-42,524 (+$42,276 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,450 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-31,074, the opportunity cost of earning $11,000/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $11.04 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$32,100, position total $-41,493 (+$43,307 vs today)

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (11 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 11 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.479 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$72,950 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-11,450

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Per cycle	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	Touch	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Recover	Total P&L @ SS
$8	9d	6 Nov 2026	$0.19	400/400	$7,600	$25,333	$25,333	78%hist 83%	47%hist 40%	82%	+$7,322	-$109,497	73.0%	2.6mo	$-121,347 (vs do-nothing $-109,897)
$8	16d	13 Nov 2026	$0.32	400/400	$12,800	$24,000	$24,000	74%hist 83%	56%hist 44%	79%	+$6,529	-$104,297	69.5%	2.5mo	$-116,147 (vs do-nothing $-104,697)
$7.50	2d	30 Oct 2026	$0.11	400/400	$4,400	$66,000	$66,000	73%hist 83%	55%hist 44%	78%	+$15,625	-$132,697	88.5%	3.2mo	$-144,547 (vs do-nothing $-133,097)
$8	23d	20 Nov 2026	$0.41	400/400	$16,400	$21,391	$21,391	71%hist 83%	64%hist 54%	77%	+$2,153	-$100,697	67.1%	2.4mo	$-112,547 (vs do-nothing $-101,097)
$7.50	9d	6 Nov 2026	$0.33	400/400	$13,200	$44,000	$44,000	65%hist 66%	74%hist 68%	74%	+$9,393	-$123,897	82.6%	2.9mo	$-135,747 (vs do-nothing $-124,297)
$7.50	16d	13 Nov 2026	$0.47	400/400	$18,800	$35,250	$35,250	64%hist 66%	79%hist 68%	73%	+$6,885	-$118,297	78.9%	2.8mo	$-130,147 (vs do-nothing $-118,697)
$7.50	23d	20 Nov 2026	$0.57	400/400	$22,800	$29,739	$29,739	63%hist 66%	83%hist 79%	72%	+$2,173	-$114,297	76.2%	2.7mo	$-126,147 (vs do-nothing $-114,697)
$7	23d	20 Nov 2026	$0.78	400/400	$31,200	$40,696	$40,696	53%hist 70%	100%hist 89%	68%	+$2,094	-$125,897	83.9%	3.0mo	$-137,747 (vs do-nothing $-126,297)
$7	16d	13 Nov 2026	$0.68	400/400	$27,200	$51,000	$51,000	52%hist 70%	100%hist 89%	67%	+$3,882	-$129,897	86.6%	3.1mo	$-141,747 (vs do-nothing $-130,297)
$7	9d	6 Nov 2026	$0.54	400/400	$21,600	$72,000	$72,000	49%	100%hist 89%	67%	+$9,509	-$135,497	90.3%	3.2mo	$-147,347 (vs do-nothing $-135,897)
$7	2d	30 Oct 2026	$0.30	400/400	$12,000	$180,000	$180,000	44%	100%hist 89%	63%	+$14,084	-$145,097	96.7%	3.5mo	$-156,947 (vs do-nothing $-145,497)

39 more priced, not eligible (safety, income floor or quote screens): shown for reference

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Per cycle	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	Touch	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Recover	Total P&L @ SS	Why not eligible
$17	23d	20 Nov 2026	$0.01	400/400	$400	$522	$522	99+%hist 95%	0%hist 4%	100%	+$516	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-11,450 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$14.50	16d	13 Nov 2026	$0.01	400/400	$400	$750	$750	99+%hist 95%	0%hist 4%	100%	+$742	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-11,450 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$16	23d	20 Nov 2026	$0.01	400/400	$400	$522	$522	99+%hist 95%	0%hist 4%	100%	+$508	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-11,450 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$15	23d	20 Nov 2026	$0.01	400/400	$400	$522	$522	99+%hist 95%	1%hist 4%	100%	+$486	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-11,450 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$14	23d	20 Nov 2026	$0.01	400/400	$400	$522	$522	99%hist 95%	1%hist 4%	99%	+$427	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-11,450 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$15	16d	13 Nov 2026	$0.01	400/400	$400	$750	$750	99%hist 95%	1%hist 4%	99%	+$577	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-11,450 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$13.50	23d	20 Nov 2026	$0.01	400/400	$400	$522	$522	99%hist 95%	2%hist 4%	99%	+$369	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-11,450 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$14	16d	13 Nov 2026	$0.01	400/400	$400	$750	$750	99%hist 95%	2%hist 4%	99%	+$479	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-11,450 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$12	9d	6 Nov 2026	$0.01	400/400	$400	$1,333	$1,333	99%hist 95%	2%hist 4%	99%	+$977	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-11,450 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$13.50	16d	13 Nov 2026	$0.01	400/400	$400	$750	$750	99%hist 95%	2%hist 4%	99%	+$434	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-11,450 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$13	23d	20 Nov 2026	$0.02	400/400	$800	$1,043	$1,043	99%hist 95%	2%hist 4%	99%	+$798	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-11,050 (vs do-nothing +$400)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$13	16d	13 Nov 2026	$0.01	400/400	$400	$750	$750	99%hist 95%	3%hist 4%	99%	+$378	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-11,450 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11.50	9d	6 Nov 2026	$0.01	400/400	$400	$1,333	$1,333	99%hist 95%	3%hist 4%	99%	+$812	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-11,450 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$12.50	16d	13 Nov 2026	$0.01	400/400	$400	$750	$750	99%hist 95%	3%hist 4%	99%	+$292	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-11,450 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11	9d	6 Nov 2026	$0.01	400/400	$400	$1,333	$1,333	98%hist 95%	4%hist 4%	98%	+$668	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-11,450 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$12	16d	13 Nov 2026	$0.02	400/400	$800	$1,500	$1,500	98%hist 95%	4%hist 4%	98%	+$897	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-11,050 (vs do-nothing +$400)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$12.50	23d	20 Nov 2026	$0.02	400/400	$800	$1,043	$1,043	98%hist 95%	4%hist 4%	98%	+$560	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-11,050 (vs do-nothing +$400)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10.50	9d	6 Nov 2026	$0.01	400/400	$400	$1,333	$1,333	98%hist 95%	5%hist 4%	98%	+$443	-$16,697	11.1%	0.4mo	$-28,547 (vs do-nothing $-17,097)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$12	23d	20 Nov 2026	$0.03	400/400	$1,200	$1,565	$1,565	98%hist 95%	5%hist 4%	98%	+$933	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-10,650 (vs do-nothing +$800)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11.50	16d	13 Nov 2026	$0.02	400/400	$800	$1,500	$1,500	98%hist 95%	5%hist 4%	98%	+$667	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-11,050 (vs do-nothing +$400)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8.50	2d	30 Oct 2026	$0.01	400/400	$400	$6,000	$6,000	97%hist 95%	7%hist 4%	97%	+$3,550	-$96,697	64.5%	2.3mo	$-108,547 (vs do-nothing $-97,097)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10	9d	6 Nov 2026	$0.02	400/400	$800	$2,667	$2,667	97%hist 95%	7%hist 4%	97%	+$1,264	-$36,297	24.2%	0.9mo	$-48,147 (vs do-nothing $-36,697)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11	16d	13 Nov 2026	$0.03	400/400	$1,200	$2,250	$2,250	97%hist 95%	7%hist 4%	97%	+$1,058	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-10,650 (vs do-nothing +$800)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11.50	23d	20 Nov 2026	$0.04	400/400	$1,600	$2,087	$2,087	97%hist 95%	7%hist 4%	97%	+$1,095	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-10,250 (vs do-nothing +$1,200)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11	23d	20 Nov 2026	$0.05	400/400	$2,000	$2,609	$2,609	96%hist 95%	9%hist 4%	96%	+$1,316	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-9,850 (vs do-nothing +$1,600)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10.50	16d	13 Nov 2026	$0.04	400/400	$1,600	$3,000	$3,000	95%hist 95%	10%hist 4%	96%	+$1,243	-$15,497	10.3%	0.4mo	$-27,347 (vs do-nothing $-15,897)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9.50	9d	6 Nov 2026	$0.03	400/400	$1,200	$4,000	$4,000	95%hist 95%	11%hist 13%	95%	+$1,543	-$55,897	37.3%	1.3mo	$-67,747 (vs do-nothing $-56,297)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10.50	23d	20 Nov 2026	$0.07	400/400	$2,800	$3,652	$3,652	94%hist 95%	12%hist 13%	95%	+$1,708	-$14,297	9.5%	0.3mo	$-26,147 (vs do-nothing $-14,697)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10	16d	13 Nov 2026	$0.06	400/400	$2,400	$4,500	$4,500	94%hist 95%	13%hist 13%	94%	+$1,845	-$34,697	23.1%	0.8mo	$-46,547 (vs do-nothing $-35,097)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10	23d	20 Nov 2026	$0.10	400/400	$4,000	$5,217	$5,217	92%hist 95%	17%hist 13%	93%	+$2,377	-$33,097	22.1%	0.8mo	$-44,947 (vs do-nothing $-33,497)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9	9d	6 Nov 2026	$0.06	400/400	$2,400	$8,000	$8,000	92%hist 95%	18%hist 13%	92%	+$3,345	-$74,697	49.8%	1.8mo	$-86,547 (vs do-nothing $-75,097)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9.50	16d	13 Nov 2026	$0.09	400/400	$3,600	$6,750	$6,750	91%hist 95%	19%hist 13%	92%	+$2,645	-$53,497	35.7%	1.3mo	$-65,347 (vs do-nothing $-53,897)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8	2d	30 Oct 2026	$0.03	400/400	$1,200	$18,000	$18,000	89%hist 86%	22%hist 23%	90%	+$4,840	-$115,897	77.3%	2.8mo	$-127,747 (vs do-nothing $-116,297)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9.50	23d	20 Nov 2026	$0.14	400/400	$5,600	$7,304	$7,304	89%hist 86%	23%hist 23%	90%	+$2,978	-$51,497	34.3%	1.2mo	$-63,347 (vs do-nothing $-51,897)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9	16d	13 Nov 2026	$0.14	400/400	$5,600	$10,500	$10,500	87%hist 86%	27%hist 23%	89%	+$3,987	-$71,497	47.7%	1.7mo	$-83,347 (vs do-nothing $-71,897)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8.50	9d	6 Nov 2026	$0.11	400/400	$4,400	$14,667	$14,667	86%hist 86%	29%hist 23%	88%	+$5,508	-$92,697	61.8%	2.2mo	$-104,547 (vs do-nothing $-93,097)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9	23d	20 Nov 2026	$0.21	400/400	$8,400	$10,957	$10,957	83%hist 86%	36%hist 30%	85%	+$2,120	-$68,697	45.8%	1.6mo	$-80,547 (vs do-nothing $-69,097)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8.50	16d	13 Nov 2026	$0.21	400/400	$8,400	$15,750	$15,750	82%hist 86%	39%hist 30%	84%	+$5,146	-$88,697	59.1%	2.1mo	$-100,547 (vs do-nothing $-89,097)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8.50	23d	20 Nov 2026	$0.29	400/400	$11,600	$15,130	$15,130	78%hist 83%	49%hist 40%	81%	+$1,975	-$85,497	57.0%	2.0mo	$-97,347 (vs do-nothing $-85,897)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract

Per cycle = bid x 100 x contracts, the cash this expiry pays. Touch = P(strike trades before expiry), with the graded record's hist pill. Recover = months of this income to close the hole to CC-SS. Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 400 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-10-29 03:13