FORTRESS FIGHT: MARA-LC13 @ $7.10

BE SS: $16.75 | CC-SS: $10.83 | 400 contracts (40,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

MARA-LC13MAX 100 @ $7.10 UNDERWATER $9.65 (57.6% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

MARA reports 2026-11-04 (Wed), in 6 days. The recommended CC (8d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. No priced expiry closes before the print, so waiting for it is the only clean option.

400 contracts (40,000 sh) | BE SS: $16.75 | CC-SS: $10.83 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $13 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $3.752/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$150,000	(ND $3.75 + SW $0) x 40000
Normal income ref	$44,800/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$-83,200	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$22,400/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$44,800/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
3.3 mo to earn back $150,000

ML VELOCITY
3.3 mo to earn back $150,000

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $10.83 (probe: $11C 15d) brings only $2,400/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 Campaign ledger: seeded, nothing tracked yet. Open short calls and banked credits appear here from the next cycle on; the banked-floor (info) shows how far premium would ratchet the floor, but the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYOVERSOLD · %B 3 (live) · RSI 36 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 30 · %B 27 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $11.04 (+55%) · daily UBB $11.13 · 1-wk expected move ±$1 (chain IV)

SETUPSpring loaded, not ignited: 🎯 or 💎 at short DTE, normal tripwires. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-11-04: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 100 contracts at $8 / 8d. This is the safest strike (survival 79%, breach 21%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($22,400/mo); it brings $6,000/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 100 × $7/8d for $18,375/mo, but breach risk rises to 50% (+30pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 100 × $11/22d (96% survival, $682/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $26,695 (18% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $17, recoverable in 0.6 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 100 contracts realizes $-20,850 and cuts bleed by $0/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 400 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 6 Nov 2026 (8d) · sell 100 × $8, 79% survival, $6,000/mo (E[net] $2,334/mo). ⏸ WAIT: every listed weekly is open through the next earnings print, so nothing here is a sell-now suggestion; sell after the print.
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 ⚡	6 Nov 2026 · 8d	100 × $8	79%	$6,000	$2,334

E[net] arithmetic on the grand pick: keep $1,600 with probability 68%; on the 32% touch you roll, paying $3,883 to close and taking $2,444 back from the best priced door (net cash $1,439) and parking about one cycle of income. Charging the FULL buyback with no door credit (the pre-2026-07-25 model) contradicted the campaign simulation, which prices the same event as a cash-neutral even roll.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 6 Nov 2026 · 8d · E[net] $2,334/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 100 × $8 (50% normal), 79% survival, breach 21%, $6,000/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $9.50 rung (🛡 safe yield) lifts survival to 92% (breach 21% → 8%) for $4,400/mo less (73% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $9.50 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect MARA to stay flat-to-down near term.

MARA spot $7.10 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

🛡 safe yield ← lean

100 × $9.50

13 Nov

15d

33.8%

92%hist 95%

17%hist 13%

+2pp

$800

$1,600

-$4,400

$12,495

Sell 100 × $9.50 33.8% OTM over spot $7.10 13 Nov 2026 (15d, $0.09 mid)

= $800 credit for the 15d cycle → $1,600/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $9.50)

92%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $9.59)

93%

EV / mo

+$705

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+2pp

44% whole by 9mo vs 42% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.5/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$1,568/mo

median; plan ~$1,066/mo after 68% keep · $10,951 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.0-3.6], measured ONLY among the 44% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

12%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$6,133

Free roll-up

+$0/wk

Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)

$10 @ 72% POP

61% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 100 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 15); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $0.98/sh now → $0.69 mid-life (likely $0.54–$0.87) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.61/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 354 simulated challenges: the $10 strike is typically first touched on day 11 of 15, at $10 (overshoots $0.30). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (100 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$10	20 Nov 2026	14d left	+$0.23/sh	+$2,276 cycle +$3,076 [+$2,330…+$3,600] · 100% credit	70% surv 55%	-$33,840 NOT cap gain +$49,360
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$10	20 Nov 2026	14d left	+$0.05/sh	+$516 cycle +$1,316 [+$285…+$1,470] · 88% credit	72% surv 61%	-$27,936 NOT cap gain +$55,264
Max even-money escape in the band	~$10	20 Nov 2026	14d left	+$0.05/sh	+$516 cycle +$1,316 [+$285…+$1,470] · 88% credit	72% surv 61%	-$27,936 NOT cap gain +$55,264
SS $17 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,600/mo
vs 50% target ($22,400/mo)	-93%
vs normal income ($44,800/mo)	4% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,600/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $9.50 is $1 below CC-SS $10.83: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$12,495
… as % of IC ($150,000)	8.3%
… as % of ML ($150,000)	8.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.3 mo
Surgical close (100 ct)	$-20,900

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $9.59 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $10)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $11.13 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 8d left	3-7d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $9.40	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $9-9.59	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $9.59	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.48 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$9.50 (1.6σ)	$800	$-36,116	+$47,084	+$700
+2.5%	$9.74 (1.8σ)	$-1,575	$-33,941	+$49,259	-$1,675
+5%	$9.97 (1.9σ)	$-3,950	$-31,765	+$51,435	-$4,050
SS (= V-bounce)	$16.75 (6.4σ)	$-71,700	$-22,206	+$60,994	-$54,300

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $10.83, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-83,200

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$71,457

− CC assignment net of premium (100 × $9.50): -$12,495

+ Conservative CC premium (300 × $15): +$300

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,938 (+$59,262 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,343 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,595, the opportunity cost of earning $1,600/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $11.04 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$14,600, position total $-22,010 (+$61,190 vs today)

▸

33% normal

100 × $8

6 Nov

12.7%

79%hist 83%

43%hist 40%

+4pp

$1,600

$6,000

+$0

$26,695

Sell 100 × $8 12.7% OTM over spot $7.10 6 Nov 2026 (8d, $0.17 mid)

= $1,600 credit for the 8d cycle → $6,000/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $8)

79%

Breach risk

21%

POP (stays ≤ $8.16)

83%

EV / mo

+$1,925

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+4pp

47% whole by 9mo vs 43% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~2.7/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$3,180/mo

median; plan ~$2,163/mo after 68% keep · $21,663 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.6 mo [1.5-4.4], measured ONLY among the 47% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

32%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,283

Free roll-up

+$0/wk

Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)

$9 @ 82% POP

78% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 100 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $0.55/sh now → $0.39 mid-life (likely $0.40–$0.63) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.23/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 965 simulated challenges: the $8 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $8 (overshoots $0.27). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (100 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$8	13 Nov 2026	11d left	+$0.24/sh	+$2,444 cycle +$4,044 [+$2,237…+$2,921] · 100% credit	69% surv 54%	-$61,612 NOT cap gain +$21,588
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$8	13 Nov 2026	11d left	+$0.07/sh	+$744 cycle +$2,344 [+$259…+$943] · 90% credit	73% surv 64%	-$55,648 NOT cap gain +$27,552
Max even-money escape in the band	~$9	20 Nov 2026	18d left	+$0.06/sh	+$631 cycle +$2,231 [-$149…+$858] · 66% credit	78% surv 71%	-$46,181 NOT cap gain +$37,019
SS $17 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$9	20 Nov 2026	18d left	-$0.06/sh	-$640 cycle +$960 [-$1,673…-$546] · 12% credit	82% surv 78%	-$37,872 NOT cap gain +$45,328
budget: banked $1,600 debit $640 (40% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$960 cash · rolled 100 ct earn ≈ $5,404/mo while parked; 300 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$6,000/mo
vs 50% target ($22,400/mo)	-73%
vs normal income ($44,800/mo)	13% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$6,000/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $8 is $3 below CC-SS $10.83: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$26,695
… as % of IC ($150,000)	17.8%
… as % of ML ($150,000)	17.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.6 mo
Surgical close (100 ct)	$-20,850

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.16 collected) or spot ≥ $8.16 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $8)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $11.13 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $7.92	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $8-8.16	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $8.16	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.48 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$8.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,600	$-64,056	+$19,144	+$1,500
+2.5%	$8.20 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-400	$-62,224	+$20,976	-$500
+5%	$8.40 (1.2σ)	$-2,400	$-60,392	+$22,808	-$2,500
SS (= V-bounce)	$16.75 (8.8σ)	$-85,900	$-36,406	+$46,794	-$68,500

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $10.83, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-83,200

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$71,457

− CC assignment net of premium (100 × $8): -$26,695

+ Conservative CC premium (300 × $15): +$300

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-38,138 (+$45,062 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,343 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,795, the opportunity cost of earning $6,000/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $11.04 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$28,800, position total $-36,210 (+$46,990 vs today)

▸

🎯 50% normal

100 × $8

6 Nov

12.7%

79%hist 83%

43%hist 40%

+4pp

$1,600

$6,000

—

$26,695

Sell 100 × $8 12.7% OTM over spot $7.10 6 Nov 2026 (8d, $0.17 mid)

= $1,600 credit for the 8d cycle → $6,000/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $8)

79%

Breach risk

21%

POP (stays ≤ $8.16)

83%

EV / mo

+$1,925

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+4pp

47% whole by 9mo vs 43% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~2.7/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$3,180/mo

median; plan ~$2,163/mo after 68% keep · $21,663 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.6 mo [1.5-4.4], measured ONLY among the 47% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

32%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,283

Free roll-up

+$0/wk

Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)

$9 @ 82% POP

78% survival

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (100 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$8	13 Nov 2026	11d left	+$0.24/sh	+$2,444 cycle +$4,044 [+$2,237…+$2,921] · 100% credit	69% surv 54%	-$61,612 NOT cap gain +$21,588
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$8	13 Nov 2026	11d left	+$0.07/sh	+$744 cycle +$2,344 [+$259…+$943] · 90% credit	73% surv 64%	-$55,648 NOT cap gain +$27,552
Max even-money escape in the band	~$9	20 Nov 2026	18d left	+$0.06/sh	+$631 cycle +$2,231 [-$149…+$858] · 66% credit	78% surv 71%	-$46,181 NOT cap gain +$37,019
SS $17 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$9	20 Nov 2026	18d left	-$0.06/sh	-$640 cycle +$960 [-$1,673…-$546] · 12% credit	82% surv 78%	-$37,872 NOT cap gain +$45,328
budget: banked $1,600 debit $640 (40% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$960 cash · rolled 100 ct earn ≈ $5,404/mo while parked; 300 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$6,000/mo
vs 50% target ($22,400/mo)	-73%
vs normal income ($44,800/mo)	13% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$6,000/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $8 is $3 below CC-SS $10.83: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$26,695
… as % of IC ($150,000)	17.8%
… as % of ML ($150,000)	17.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.6 mo
Surgical close (100 ct)	$-20,850

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $7.92	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $8-8.16	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $8.16	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.48 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$8.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,600	$-64,056	+$19,144	+$1,500
+2.5%	$8.20 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-400	$-62,224	+$20,976	-$500
+5%	$8.40 (1.2σ)	$-2,400	$-60,392	+$22,808	-$2,500
SS (= V-bounce)	$16.75 (8.8σ)	$-85,900	$-36,406	+$46,794	-$68,500

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $10.83, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-83,200

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$71,457

− CC assignment net of premium (100 × $8): -$26,695

+ Conservative CC premium (300 × $15): +$300

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-38,138 (+$45,062 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,343 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,795, the opportunity cost of earning $6,000/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $11.04 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$28,800, position total $-36,210 (+$46,990 vs today)

▸

100% normal

100 × $7

6 Nov

-1.4%

50%

100%hist 89%

$4,900

$18,375

+$12,375

$33,395

Sell 100 × $7 1.4% ITM over spot $7.10 6 Nov 2026 (8d, $0.50 mid)

= $4,900 credit for the 8d cycle → $18,375/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $7)

50%

Breach risk

50%

POP (stays ≤ $7.50)

67%

EV / mo

+$2,323

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

100%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

+$1,715

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)

$10 @ 93% POP

92% survival

Buyback gross: $0.45/sh now → $0.32 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.49/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.17/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (100 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$7	13 Nov 2026	11d left	+$0.20/sh	+$2,000 cycle +$6,900	69% surv 54%	-$76,000 NOT cap gain +$7,200
Max even-money escape in the band	~$8	20 Nov 2026	18d left	+$0.12/sh	+$1,246 cycle +$6,146	75% surv 66%	-$69,090 NOT cap gain +$14,110
SS $17 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$10	20 Nov 2026	18d left	-$0.23/sh	-$2,342 cycle +$2,558	93% surv 92%	-$34,358 NOT cap gain +$48,842
budget: banked $4,900 debit $2,342 (48% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2,558 cash · rolled 100 ct earn ≈ $1,405/mo while parked; 300 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$18,375/mo
vs 50% target ($22,400/mo)	-18%
vs normal income ($44,800/mo)	41% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$18,375/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $7 is $4 below CC-SS $10.83: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$33,395
… as % of IC ($150,000)	22.3%
… as % of ML ($150,000)	22.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.7 mo
Surgical close (100 ct)	$-20,900

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.49 collected) or spot ≥ $7.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $7)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $11.13 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $6.93	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $7-7.50	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $7.50	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.48 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$7.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$4,900	$-78,000	+$5,200	+$4,800
+2.5%	$7.17 (≤1σ, normal week)	$3,150	$-78,313	+$4,887	+$3,050
+5%	$7.35 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,400	$-76,710	+$6,490	+$1,300
SS (= V-bounce)	$16.75 (8.8σ)	$-92,600	$-43,106	+$40,094	-$75,200

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $10.83, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-83,200

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$71,457

− CC assignment net of premium (100 × $7): -$33,395

+ Conservative CC premium (300 × $15): +$300

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-44,838 (+$38,362 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,343 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-33,495, the opportunity cost of earning $18,375/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $11.04 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$35,500, position total $-42,910 (+$40,290 vs today)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on MARA are the tiebreakers.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (8 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 8 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.479 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$71,457 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-11,343

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Per cycle	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	Touch	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Recover	Total P&L @ SS
$8	8d	6 Nov 2026	$0.16	400/400	$6,400	$24,000	$24,000	79%hist 83%	43%hist 40%	83%	+$7,700	-$106,780	71.2%	2.4mo	$-118,523 (vs do-nothing $-107,180)
$8	15d	13 Nov 2026	$0.30	400/400	$12,000	$24,000	$24,000	75%hist 83%	54%hist 44%	80%	+$7,489	-$101,180	67.5%	2.3mo	$-112,923 (vs do-nothing $-101,580)
$7.50	8d	6 Nov 2026	$0.29	400/400	$11,600	$43,500	$43,500	66%hist 66%	71%hist 68%	75%	+$10,046	-$121,580	81.1%	2.7mo	$-133,323 (vs do-nothing $-121,980)
$7.50	15d	13 Nov 2026	$0.45	400/400	$18,000	$36,000	$36,000	64%hist 66%	77%hist 68%	74%	+$8,144	-$115,180	76.8%	2.6mo	$-126,923 (vs do-nothing $-115,580)
$7.50	22d	20 Nov 2026	$0.56	400/400	$22,400	$30,545	$30,545	63%hist 66%	81%hist 79%	73%	+$5,778	-$110,780	73.9%	2.5mo	$-122,523 (vs do-nothing $-111,180)
$7	22d	20 Nov 2026	$0.77	400/400	$30,800	$42,000	$42,000	53%hist 70%	100%hist 89%	69%	+$6,297	-$122,380	81.6%	2.7mo	$-134,123 (vs do-nothing $-122,780)
$7	15d	13 Nov 2026	$0.66	400/400	$26,400	$52,800	$52,800	52%hist 70%	100%hist 89%	68%	+$8,173	-$126,780	84.5%	2.8mo	$-138,523 (vs do-nothing $-127,180)
$7	8d	6 Nov 2026	$0.49	400/400	$19,600	$73,500	$73,500	50%	100%hist 89%	67%	+$9,294	-$133,580	89.1%	3.0mo	$-145,323 (vs do-nothing $-133,980)

36 more priced, not eligible (safety, income floor or quote screens): shown for reference

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Per cycle	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	Touch	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Recover	Total P&L @ SS	Why not eligible
$13.50	15d	13 Nov 2026	$0.01	400/400	$400	$800	$800	99+%hist 95%	0%hist 4%	100%	+$794	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-11,343 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$13	15d	13 Nov 2026	$0.01	400/400	$400	$800	$800	99+%hist 95%	0%hist 4%	100%	+$786	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-11,343 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$12.50	15d	13 Nov 2026	$0.02	400/400	$800	$1,600	$1,600	99+%hist 95%	1%hist 4%	100%	+$1,569	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-10,943 (vs do-nothing +$400)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$12	15d	13 Nov 2026	$0.02	400/400	$800	$1,600	$1,600	99+%hist 95%	1%hist 4%	100%	+$1,531	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-10,943 (vs do-nothing +$400)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$15	15d	13 Nov 2026	$0.01	400/400	$400	$800	$800	99%hist 95%	1%hist 4%	99%	+$616	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-11,343 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$14.50	15d	13 Nov 2026	$0.01	400/400	$400	$800	$800	99%hist 95%	2%hist 4%	99%	+$540	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-11,343 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$17	22d	20 Nov 2026	$0.01	400/400	$400	$545	$545	99%hist 95%	2%hist 4%	99%	+$259	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-11,343 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11.50	15d	13 Nov 2026	$0.02	400/400	$800	$1,600	$1,600	99%hist 95%	2%hist 4%	99%	+$1,451	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-10,943 (vs do-nothing +$400)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$16	22d	20 Nov 2026	$0.01	400/400	$400	$545	$545	99%hist 95%	2%hist 4%	99%	+$249	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-11,343 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$14	15d	13 Nov 2026	$0.01	400/400	$400	$800	$800	99%hist 95%	2%hist 4%	99%	+$452	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-11,343 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$15	22d	20 Nov 2026	$0.01	400/400	$400	$545	$545	99%hist 95%	2%hist 4%	99%	+$247	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-11,343 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$14	22d	20 Nov 2026	$0.02	400/400	$800	$1,091	$1,091	99%hist 95%	2%hist 4%	99%	+$779	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-10,943 (vs do-nothing +$400)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11	8d	6 Nov 2026	$0.01	400/400	$400	$1,500	$1,500	99%hist 95%	2%hist 4%	99%	+$1,093	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-11,343 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$13.50	22d	20 Nov 2026	$0.01	400/400	$400	$545	$545	99%hist 95%	3%hist 4%	99%	+$212	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-11,343 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$13	22d	20 Nov 2026	$0.02	400/400	$800	$1,091	$1,091	99%hist 95%	3%hist 4%	99%	+$716	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-10,943 (vs do-nothing +$400)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11	15d	13 Nov 2026	$0.03	400/400	$1,200	$2,400	$2,400	99%hist 95%	3%hist 4%	99%	+$2,083	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-10,543 (vs do-nothing +$800)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$12.50	22d	20 Nov 2026	$0.02	400/400	$800	$1,091	$1,091	98%hist 95%	4%hist 4%	98%	+$637	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-10,943 (vs do-nothing +$400)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10.50	8d	6 Nov 2026	$0.01	400/400	$400	$1,500	$1,500	98%hist 95%	4%hist 4%	98%	+$802	-$12,780	8.5%	0.3mo	$-24,523 (vs do-nothing $-13,180)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$12	22d	20 Nov 2026	$0.03	400/400	$1,200	$1,636	$1,636	98%hist 95%	5%hist 4%	98%	+$1,045	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-10,543 (vs do-nothing +$800)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10.50	15d	13 Nov 2026	$0.04	400/400	$1,600	$3,200	$3,200	97%hist 95%	5%hist 4%	98%	+$2,541	-$11,580	7.7%	0.3mo	$-23,323 (vs do-nothing $-11,980)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10	8d	6 Nov 2026	$0.01	400/400	$400	$1,500	$1,500	97%hist 95%	6%hist 4%	97%	+$430	-$32,780	21.9%	0.7mo	$-44,523 (vs do-nothing $-33,180)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11.50	22d	20 Nov 2026	$0.04	400/400	$1,600	$2,182	$2,182	97%hist 95%	6%hist 4%	97%	+$1,370	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-10,143 (vs do-nothing +$1,200)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11	22d	20 Nov 2026	$0.05	400/400	$2,000	$2,727	$2,727	96%hist 95%	8%hist 4%	96%	+$1,569	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-9,743 (vs do-nothing +$1,600)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9.50	8d	6 Nov 2026	$0.02	400/400	$800	$3,000	$3,000	96%hist 95%	8%hist 4%	96%	+$1,203	-$52,380	34.9%	1.2mo	$-64,123 (vs do-nothing $-52,780)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10	15d	13 Nov 2026	$0.06	400/400	$2,400	$4,800	$4,800	96%hist 95%	9%hist 4%	96%	+$3,461	-$30,780	20.5%	0.7mo	$-42,523 (vs do-nothing $-31,180)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10.50	22d	20 Nov 2026	$0.07	400/400	$2,800	$3,818	$3,818	95%hist 95%	11%hist 13%	95%	+$2,078	-$10,380	6.9%	0.2mo	$-22,123 (vs do-nothing $-10,780)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9	8d	6 Nov 2026	$0.04	400/400	$1,600	$6,000	$6,000	93%hist 95%	14%hist 13%	94%	+$2,474	-$71,580	47.7%	1.6mo	$-83,323 (vs do-nothing $-71,980)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10	22d	20 Nov 2026	$0.10	400/400	$4,000	$5,455	$5,455	93%hist 95%	15%hist 13%	93%	+$2,961	-$29,180	19.5%	0.7mo	$-40,923 (vs do-nothing $-29,580)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9.50	15d	13 Nov 2026	$0.08	400/400	$3,200	$6,400	$6,400	92%hist 95%	17%hist 13%	93%	+$2,821	-$49,980	33.3%	1.1mo	$-61,723 (vs do-nothing $-50,380)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9.50	22d	20 Nov 2026	$0.14	400/400	$5,600	$7,636	$7,636	90%hist 86%	22%hist 23%	91%	+$3,519	-$47,580	31.7%	1.1mo	$-59,323 (vs do-nothing $-47,980)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9	15d	13 Nov 2026	$0.13	400/400	$5,200	$10,400	$10,400	89%hist 86%	23%hist 23%	90%	+$5,338	-$67,980	45.3%	1.5mo	$-79,723 (vs do-nothing $-68,380)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8.50	8d	6 Nov 2026	$0.08	400/400	$3,200	$12,000	$12,000	88%hist 86%	25%hist 23%	89%	+$4,411	-$89,980	60.0%	2.0mo	$-101,723 (vs do-nothing $-90,380)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9	22d	20 Nov 2026	$0.19	400/400	$7,600	$10,364	$10,364	85%hist 86%	31%hist 30%	87%	+$3,687	-$65,580	43.7%	1.5mo	$-77,323 (vs do-nothing $-65,980)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8.50	15d	13 Nov 2026	$0.19	400/400	$7,600	$15,200	$15,200	83%hist 86%	36%hist 30%	86%	+$5,864	-$85,580	57.1%	1.9mo	$-97,323 (vs do-nothing $-85,980)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8.50	22d	20 Nov 2026	$0.28	400/400	$11,200	$15,273	$15,273	80%hist 83%	44%hist 40%	83%	+$4,672	-$81,980	54.7%	1.8mo	$-93,723 (vs do-nothing $-82,380)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8	22d	20 Nov 2026	$0.40	400/400	$16,000	$21,818	$21,818	72%hist 83%	60%hist 54%	78%	+$5,390	-$97,180	64.8%	2.2mo	$-108,923 (vs do-nothing $-97,580)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract

Per cycle = bid x 100 x contracts, the cash this expiry pays. Touch = P(strike trades before expiry), with the graded record's hist pill. Recover = months of this income to close the hole to CC-SS. Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 400 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-10-30 03:13