FORTRESS FIGHT: MARA-LC13 @ $6.74

BE SS: $16.75 | CC-SS: $11.00 | 400 contracts (40,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

MARA-LC13MAX 100 @ $6.74 UNDERWATER $10.01 (59.8% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

MARA reports 2026-11-04 (Wed), in 5 days. The recommended CC (7d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. No priced expiry closes before the print, so waiting for it is the only clean option.

400 contracts (40,000 sh) | BE SS: $16.75 | CC-SS: $11.00 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $13 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $3.752/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$150,000	(ND $3.75 + SW $0) x 40000
Normal income ref	$42,000/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$-94,200	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$21,000/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$42,000/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
3.6 mo to earn back $150,000

ML VELOCITY
3.6 mo to earn back $150,000

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $11.00 (probe: $11C 14d) brings only $1,714/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 Campaign ledger: seeded, nothing tracked yet. Open short calls and banked credits appear here from the next cycle on; the banked-floor (info) shows how far premium would ratchet the floor, but the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYOVERSOLD · %B -0 (live) · RSI 35 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 28 · %B 23 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $11.02 (+64%) · daily UBB $10.68 · 1-wk expected move ±$1 (chain IV)

SETUPSpring loaded, not ignited: 🎯 or 💎 at short DTE, normal tripwires. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-11-04: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 100 contracts at $7.50 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 77%, breach 23%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($21,000/mo); it brings $6,857/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 100 × $7/7d for $12,857/mo, but breach risk rises to 37% (+15pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 100 × $11.50/14d (98% survival, $429/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $33,431 (22% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $17, recoverable in 0.8 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 100 contracts realizes $-23,600 and cuts bleed by $0/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 400 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 6 Nov 2026 (7d) · sell 100 × $7.50, 77% survival, $6,857/mo (E[net] $1,195/mo). ⏸ WAIT: every listed weekly is open through the next earnings print, so nothing here is a sell-now suggestion; sell after the print.
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 ⚡	6 Nov 2026 · 7d	100 × $7.50	77%	$6,857	$1,195

E[net] arithmetic on the grand pick: keep $1,600 with probability 66%; on the 34% touch you roll, paying $3,595 to close and taking $1,358 back from the best priced door (net cash $2,237) and parking about one cycle of income. Charging the FULL buyback with no door credit (the pre-2026-07-25 model) contradicted the campaign simulation, which prices the same event as a cash-neutral even roll.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 6 Nov 2026 · 7d · E[net] $1,195/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 100 × $7.50 (50% normal), 77% survival, breach 23%, $6,857/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $9 rung (🛡 safe yield) lifts survival to 92% (breach 23% → 8%) for $5,143/mo less (75% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $9 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect MARA to stay flat-to-down near term.

MARA spot $6.74 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

🛡 safe yield ← lean

100 × $9

13 Nov

14d

33.5%

92%hist 95%

18%hist 13%

+1pp

$800

$1,714

-$5,143

$19,231

Sell 100 × $9 33.5% OTM over spot $6.74 13 Nov 2026 (14d, $0.09 mid)

= $800 credit for the 14d cycle → $1,714/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $9)

92%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $9.09)

92%

EV / mo

+$726

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+1pp

41% whole by 9mo vs 40% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.7/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$1,429/mo

median; plan ~$971/mo after 68% keep · $10,166 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.7 mo [1.4-4.7], measured ONLY among the 41% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

14%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$5,784

Free roll-up

+$0/wk

Safest escape (by 27 Nov 2026)

$10 @ 78% POP

72% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 100 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 14); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $0.93/sh now → $0.66 mid-life (likely $0.53–$0.86) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.58/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 409 simulated challenges: the $9 strike is typically first touched on day 9 of 14, at $9 (overshoots $0.32). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (100 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$9	20 Nov 2026	14d left	+$0.13/sh	+$1,307 cycle +$2,107 [+$1,160…+$2,212] · 100% credit	71% surv 59%	-$45,828 NOT cap gain +$48,372
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$9	20 Nov 2026	14d left	+$0.11/sh	+$1,057 cycle +$1,857 [+$751…+$2,136] · 96% credit	67% surv 55%	-$50,820 NOT cap gain +$43,380
Max even-money escape in the band	~$10	27 Nov 2026	21d left	+$0.09/sh	+$923 cycle +$1,723 [+$616…+$2,141] · 95% credit	75% surv 66%	-$37,092 NOT cap gain +$57,108
SS $17 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$10	27 Nov 2026	21d left	-$0.06/sh	-$557 cycle +$243 [-$1,047…+$554] · 37% credit	78% surv 72%	-$29,453 NOT cap gain +$64,747
budget: banked $800 debit $557 (70% used ≈ 1.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$243 cash · rolled 100 ct earn ≈ $8,610/mo while parked; 300 ct free to re-sell

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,714/mo
vs 50% target ($21,000/mo)	-92%
vs normal income ($42,000/mo)	4% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,714/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $9 is $2 below CC-SS $11.00: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$19,231
… as % of IC ($150,000)	12.8%
… as % of ML ($150,000)	12.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.5 mo
Surgical close (100 ct)	$-23,650

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $9.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $9)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $10.68 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 8d left	3-7d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $8.91	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $9-9.09	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $9.09	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.46 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$9.00 (1.5σ)	$800	$-51,878	+$42,322	+$700
+2.5%	$9.22 (1.7σ)	$-1,450	$-50,024	+$44,176	-$1,550
+5%	$9.45 (1.8σ)	$-3,700	$-48,170	+$46,030	-$3,800
SS (= V-bounce)	$16.75 (6.8σ)	$-76,700	$11,982	+$106,182	-$76,800

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $11.00, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-94,200

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$77,759

− CC assignment net of premium (100 × $9): -$19,231

+ Conservative CC premium (300 × $17): +$300

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-35,372 (+$58,828 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-16,041 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,331, the opportunity cost of earning $1,714/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $11.02 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$19,400, position total $-35,233 (+$58,967 vs today)

▸

33% normal

100 × $7.50

6 Nov

11.3%

77%hist 83%

47%hist 40%

+5pp

$1,600

$6,857

+$0

$33,431

Sell 100 × $7.50 11.3% OTM over spot $6.74 6 Nov 2026 (7d, $0.17 mid)

= $1,600 credit for the 7d cycle → $6,857/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $7.50)

77%

Breach risk

23%

POP (stays ≤ $7.67)

81%

EV / mo

+$1,898

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+5pp

47% whole by 9mo vs 42% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~3.6/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$3,248/mo

median; plan ~$2,208/mo after 68% keep · $21,717 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.1 mo [1.7-4.8], measured ONLY among the 47% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

34%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,995

Free roll-up

+$0/wk

Safest escape (by 27 Nov 2026)

$10 @ 87% POP

85% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 100 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $0.51/sh now → $0.36 mid-life (likely $0.39–$0.61) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.20/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,033 simulated challenges: the $8 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $8 (overshoots $0.26). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (100 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$8	13 Nov 2026	10d left	+$0.14/sh	+$1,358 cycle +$2,958 [+$858…+$1,492] · 98% credit	72% surv 61%	-$72,337 NOT cap gain +$21,863
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$8	13 Nov 2026	10d left	+$0.14/sh	+$1,358 cycle +$2,958 [+$673…+$1,498] · 94% credit	66% surv 54%	-$77,080 NOT cap gain +$17,120
Max even-money escape in the band	~$9	27 Nov 2026	24d left	+$0.07/sh	+$739 cycle +$2,339 [-$189…+$864] · 64% credit	80% surv 75%	-$54,716 NOT cap gain +$39,484
SS $17 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$10	27 Nov 2026	24d left	-$0.12/sh	-$1,238 cycle +$362 [-$2,627…-$1,252] · 5% credit	87% surv 85%	-$38,453 NOT cap gain +$55,747
budget: banked $1,600 debit $1,238 (77% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$362 cash · rolled 100 ct earn ≈ $2,946/mo while parked; 300 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$6,857/mo
vs 50% target ($21,000/mo)	-67%
vs normal income ($42,000/mo)	16% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$6,857/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $7.50 is $4 below CC-SS $11.00: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$33,431
… as % of IC ($150,000)	22.3%
… as % of ML ($150,000)	22.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.8 mo
Surgical close (100 ct)	$-23,600

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.16 collected) or spot ≥ $7.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $8)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $10.68 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $7.42	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $7-7.67	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $7.67	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.46 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$7.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,600	$-78,438	+$15,762	+$1,500
+2.5%	$7.69 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-275	$-76,893	+$17,307	-$375
+5%	$7.88 (1.1σ)	$-2,150	$-75,348	+$18,852	-$2,250
SS (= V-bounce)	$16.75 (9.5σ)	$-90,900	$-2,218	+$91,982	-$91,000

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $11.00, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-94,200

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$77,759

− CC assignment net of premium (100 × $7.50): -$33,431

+ Conservative CC premium (300 × $17): +$300

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-49,572 (+$44,628 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-16,041 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-33,531, the opportunity cost of earning $6,857/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $11.02 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$33,600, position total $-49,433 (+$44,767 vs today)

▸

🎯 50% normal

100 × $7.50

6 Nov

11.3%

77%hist 83%

47%hist 40%

+5pp

$1,600

$6,857

—

$33,431

Sell 100 × $7.50 11.3% OTM over spot $6.74 6 Nov 2026 (7d, $0.17 mid)

= $1,600 credit for the 7d cycle → $6,857/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $7.50)

77%

Breach risk

23%

POP (stays ≤ $7.67)

81%

EV / mo

+$1,898

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+5pp

47% whole by 9mo vs 42% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~3.6/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$3,248/mo

median; plan ~$2,208/mo after 68% keep · $21,717 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.1 mo [1.7-4.8], measured ONLY among the 47% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

34%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,995

Free roll-up

+$0/wk

Safest escape (by 27 Nov 2026)

$10 @ 87% POP

85% survival

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (100 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$8	13 Nov 2026	10d left	+$0.14/sh	+$1,358 cycle +$2,958 [+$858…+$1,492] · 98% credit	72% surv 61%	-$72,337 NOT cap gain +$21,863
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$8	13 Nov 2026	10d left	+$0.14/sh	+$1,358 cycle +$2,958 [+$673…+$1,498] · 94% credit	66% surv 54%	-$77,080 NOT cap gain +$17,120
Max even-money escape in the band	~$9	27 Nov 2026	24d left	+$0.07/sh	+$739 cycle +$2,339 [-$189…+$864] · 64% credit	80% surv 75%	-$54,716 NOT cap gain +$39,484
SS $17 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$10	27 Nov 2026	24d left	-$0.12/sh	-$1,238 cycle +$362 [-$2,627…-$1,252] · 5% credit	87% surv 85%	-$38,453 NOT cap gain +$55,747
budget: banked $1,600 debit $1,238 (77% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$362 cash · rolled 100 ct earn ≈ $2,946/mo while parked; 300 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$6,857/mo
vs 50% target ($21,000/mo)	-67%
vs normal income ($42,000/mo)	16% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$6,857/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $7.50 is $4 below CC-SS $11.00: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$33,431
… as % of IC ($150,000)	22.3%
… as % of ML ($150,000)	22.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.8 mo
Surgical close (100 ct)	$-23,600

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $7.42	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $7-7.67	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $7.67	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.46 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$7.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,600	$-78,438	+$15,762	+$1,500
+2.5%	$7.69 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-275	$-76,893	+$17,307	-$375
+5%	$7.88 (1.1σ)	$-2,150	$-75,348	+$18,852	-$2,250
SS (= V-bounce)	$16.75 (9.5σ)	$-90,900	$-2,218	+$91,982	-$91,000

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $11.00, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-94,200

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$77,759

− CC assignment net of premium (100 × $7.50): -$33,431

+ Conservative CC premium (300 × $17): +$300

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-49,572 (+$44,628 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-16,041 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-33,531, the opportunity cost of earning $6,857/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $11.02 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$33,600, position total $-49,433 (+$44,767 vs today)

▸

100% normal

100 × $7

6 Nov

3.9%

63%hist 66%

79%hist 68%

+5pp

$3,000

$12,857

+$6,000

$37,031

Sell 100 × $7 3.9% OTM over spot $6.74 6 Nov 2026 (7d, $0.31 mid)

= $3,000 credit for the 7d cycle → $12,857/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $7)

63%

Breach risk

37%

POP (stays ≤ $7.31)

73%

EV / mo

+$2,364

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+5pp

48% whole by 9mo vs 43% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~7.5/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$4,176/mo

median; plan ~$2,840/mo after 68% keep · $26,728 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.6 mo [1.5-4.8], measured ONLY among the 48% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

61%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$249

Free roll-up

+$0/wk

Safest escape (by 27 Nov 2026)

$10 @ 92% POP

91% survival

Buyback gross: $0.46/sh now → $0.32 mid-life (likely $0.42–$0.62) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,823 simulated challenges: the $7 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $7 (overshoots $0.26). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (100 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$7	13 Nov 2026	10d left	+$0.11/sh	+$1,137 cycle +$4,137 [+$484…+$899] · 95% credit	72% surv 61%	-$80,279 NOT cap gain +$13,921
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$8	27 Nov 2026	24d left	+$0.17/sh	+$1,656 cycle +$4,656 [+$661…+$1,339] · 95% credit	77% surv 69%	-$70,640 NOT cap gain +$23,560
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$7	13 Nov 2026	10d left	+$0.12/sh	+$1,233 cycle +$4,233 [+$345…+$916] · 89% credit	66% surv 54%	-$84,924 NOT cap gain +$9,276
Max even-money escape in the band	~$8	27 Nov 2026	24d left	+$0.04/sh	+$354 cycle +$3,354 [-$921…-$91] · 22% credit	81% surv 77%	-$62,821 NOT cap gain +$31,379
SS $17 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$10	27 Nov 2026	24d left	-$0.19/sh	-$1,925 cycle +$1,075 [-$3,982…-$2,603]	92% surv 91%	-$37,740 NOT cap gain +$56,460
budget: banked $3,000 debit $1,925 (64% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,075 cash · rolled 100 ct earn ≈ $1,655/mo while parked; 300 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$12,857/mo
vs 50% target ($21,000/mo)	-39%
vs normal income ($42,000/mo)	31% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$12,857/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $7 is $4 below CC-SS $11.00: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$37,031
… as % of IC ($150,000)	24.7%
… as % of ML ($150,000)	24.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.9 mo
Surgical close (100 ct)	$-23,650

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.30 collected) or spot ≥ $7.31 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $7)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $10.68 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $6.93	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $7-7.31	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $7.31	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.46 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$7.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$3,000	$-86,158	+$8,042	+$2,900
+2.5%	$7.17 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,250	$-84,716	+$9,484	+$1,150
+5%	$7.35 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-500	$-83,274	+$10,926	-$600
SS (= V-bounce)	$16.75 (9.5σ)	$-94,500	$-5,818	+$88,382	-$94,600

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $11.00, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-94,200

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$77,759

− CC assignment net of premium (100 × $7): -$37,031

+ Conservative CC premium (300 × $17): +$300

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-53,172 (+$41,028 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-16,041 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-37,131, the opportunity cost of earning $12,857/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $11.02 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$37,200, position total $-53,033 (+$41,167 vs today)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on MARA are the tiebreakers.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (8 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 8 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.456 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$77,759 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-16,041

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Per cycle	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	Touch	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Recover	Total P&L @ SS
$7.50	7d	6 Nov 2026	$0.16	400/400	$6,400	$27,429	$27,429	77%hist 83%	47%hist 40%	81%	+$7,591	-$133,725	89.2%	3.2mo	$-150,166 (vs do-nothing $-134,125)
$7.50	14d	13 Nov 2026	$0.32	400/400	$12,800	$27,429	$27,429	72%hist 83%	60%hist 54%	78%	+$6,497	-$127,325	84.9%	3.0mo	$-143,766 (vs do-nothing $-127,725)
$7.50	21d	20 Nov 2026	$0.43	400/400	$17,200	$24,571	$24,571	70%hist 83%	65%hist 54%	77%	+$5,224	-$122,925	82.0%	2.9mo	$-139,366 (vs do-nothing $-123,325)
$7.50	28d	27 Nov 2026	$0.50	400/400	$20,000	$21,429	$21,429	70%hist 66%	68%hist 54%	77%	+$4,646	-$120,125	80.1%	2.9mo	$-136,566 (vs do-nothing $-120,525)
$7	7d	6 Nov 2026	$0.30	400/400	$12,000	$51,429	$51,429	63%hist 66%	79%hist 68%	73%	+$9,454	-$148,125	98.8%	3.5mo	$-164,566 (vs do-nothing $-148,525)
$7	14d	13 Nov 2026	$0.49	400/400	$19,600	$42,000	$42,000	61%hist 66%	85%hist 79%	72%	+$6,755	-$140,525	93.7%	3.3mo	$-156,966 (vs do-nothing $-140,925)
$7	28d	27 Nov 2026	$0.68	400/400	$27,200	$29,143	$29,143	61%hist 66%	88%hist 79%	72%	+$5,070	-$132,925	88.6%	3.2mo	$-149,366 (vs do-nothing $-133,325)
$7	21d	20 Nov 2026	$0.61	400/400	$24,400	$34,857	$34,857	61%hist 66%	87%hist 79%	72%	+$5,826	-$135,725	90.5%	3.2mo	$-152,166 (vs do-nothing $-136,125)

53 more priced, not eligible (safety, income floor or quote screens): shown for reference

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Per cycle	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	Touch	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Recover	Total P&L @ SS	Why not eligible
$17	21d	20 Nov 2026	$0.01	400/400	$400	$571	$571	99%hist 95%	1%hist 4%	100%	+$420	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-16,041 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$14	14d	13 Nov 2026	$0.01	400/400	$400	$857	$857	99%hist 95%	1%hist 4%	99%	+$656	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-16,041 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$17	28d	27 Nov 2026	$0.01	400/400	$400	$429	$429	99%hist 95%	1%hist 4%	99%	+$240	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-16,041 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$16	21d	20 Nov 2026	$0.01	400/400	$400	$571	$571	99%hist 95%	2%hist 4%	99%	+$343	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-16,041 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$16	28d	27 Nov 2026	$0.01	400/400	$400	$429	$429	99%hist 95%	2%hist 4%	99%	+$233	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-16,041 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$15.50	28d	27 Nov 2026	$0.01	400/400	$400	$429	$429	99%hist 95%	2%hist 4%	99%	+$228	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-16,041 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$13.50	14d	13 Nov 2026	$0.01	400/400	$400	$857	$857	99%hist 95%	2%hist 4%	99%	+$573	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-16,041 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$15	21d	20 Nov 2026	$0.01	400/400	$400	$571	$571	99%hist 95%	2%hist 4%	99%	+$291	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-16,041 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$13	14d	13 Nov 2026	$0.01	400/400	$400	$857	$857	99%hist 95%	2%hist 4%	99%	+$482	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-16,041 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$14	21d	20 Nov 2026	$0.01	400/400	$400	$571	$571	99%hist 95%	2%hist 4%	99%	+$252	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-16,041 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$15	28d	27 Nov 2026	$0.01	400/400	$400	$429	$429	99%hist 95%	2%hist 4%	99%	+$136	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-16,041 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$14.50	28d	27 Nov 2026	$0.01	400/400	$400	$429	$429	99%hist 95%	2%hist 4%	99%	+$132	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-16,041 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$13.50	21d	20 Nov 2026	$0.01	400/400	$400	$571	$571	99%hist 95%	3%hist 4%	99%	+$222	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-16,041 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$14	28d	27 Nov 2026	$0.02	400/400	$800	$857	$857	99%hist 95%	3%hist 4%	99%	+$556	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-15,641 (vs do-nothing +$400)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10.50	7d	6 Nov 2026	$0.01	400/400	$400	$1,714	$1,714	99%hist 95%	3%hist 4%	99%	+$1,241	-$19,725	13.2%	0.5mo	$-36,166 (vs do-nothing $-20,125)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$12.50	14d	13 Nov 2026	$0.01	400/400	$400	$857	$857	99%hist 95%	3%hist 4%	99%	+$385	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-16,041 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$13	21d	20 Nov 2026	$0.02	400/400	$800	$1,143	$1,143	99%hist 95%	3%hist 4%	99%	+$748	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-15,641 (vs do-nothing +$400)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$13.50	28d	27 Nov 2026	$0.02	400/400	$800	$857	$857	99%hist 95%	3%hist 4%	99%	+$520	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-15,641 (vs do-nothing +$400)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$12	14d	13 Nov 2026	$0.01	400/400	$400	$857	$857	98%hist 95%	3%hist 4%	98%	+$277	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-16,041 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$12.50	21d	20 Nov 2026	$0.02	400/400	$800	$1,143	$1,143	98%hist 95%	3%hist 4%	98%	+$682	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-15,641 (vs do-nothing +$400)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$13	28d	27 Nov 2026	$0.02	400/400	$800	$857	$857	98%hist 95%	4%hist 4%	98%	+$424	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-15,641 (vs do-nothing +$400)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11.50	14d	13 Nov 2026	$0.02	400/400	$800	$1,714	$1,714	98%hist 95%	4%hist 4%	98%	+$999	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-15,641 (vs do-nothing +$400)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$12	21d	20 Nov 2026	$0.02	400/400	$800	$1,143	$1,143	98%hist 95%	4%hist 4%	98%	+$589	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-15,641 (vs do-nothing +$400)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$12.50	28d	27 Nov 2026	$0.03	400/400	$1,200	$1,286	$1,286	98%hist 95%	4%hist 4%	98%	+$808	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-15,241 (vs do-nothing +$800)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10	7d	6 Nov 2026	$0.01	400/400	$400	$1,714	$1,714	98%hist 95%	4%hist 4%	98%	+$804	-$39,725	26.5%	0.9mo	$-56,166 (vs do-nothing $-40,125)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11.50	21d	20 Nov 2026	$0.03	400/400	$1,200	$1,714	$1,714	98%hist 95%	5%hist 4%	98%	+$1,023	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-15,241 (vs do-nothing +$800)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11	14d	13 Nov 2026	$0.02	400/400	$800	$1,714	$1,714	98%hist 95%	5%hist 4%	98%	+$813	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-15,766 (vs do-nothing +$275)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$12	28d	27 Nov 2026	$0.03	400/400	$1,200	$1,286	$1,286	97%hist 95%	6%hist 4%	97%	+$574	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-15,241 (vs do-nothing +$800)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9.50	7d	6 Nov 2026	$0.01	400/400	$400	$1,714	$1,714	97%hist 95%	6%hist 4%	97%	+$355	-$59,725	39.8%	1.4mo	$-76,166 (vs do-nothing $-60,125)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11	21d	20 Nov 2026	$0.04	400/400	$1,600	$2,286	$2,286	97%hist 95%	6%hist 4%	97%	+$1,378	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-14,966 (vs do-nothing +$1,075)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11.50	28d	27 Nov 2026	$0.04	400/400	$1,600	$1,714	$1,714	97%hist 95%	7%hist 4%	97%	+$888	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-14,841 (vs do-nothing +$1,200)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10.50	14d	13 Nov 2026	$0.03	400/400	$1,200	$2,571	$2,571	97%hist 95%	7%hist 4%	97%	+$1,388	-$18,925	12.6%	0.5mo	$-35,366 (vs do-nothing $-19,325)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10.50	21d	20 Nov 2026	$0.05	400/400	$2,000	$2,857	$2,857	96%hist 95%	9%hist 4%	96%	+$1,593	-$18,125	12.1%	0.4mo	$-34,566 (vs do-nothing $-18,525)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10	14d	13 Nov 2026	$0.04	400/400	$1,600	$3,429	$3,429	96%hist 95%	9%hist 4%	96%	+$1,779	-$38,525	25.7%	0.9mo	$-54,966 (vs do-nothing $-38,925)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11	28d	27 Nov 2026	$0.06	400/400	$2,400	$2,571	$2,571	96%hist 95%	9%hist 4%	96%	+$1,297	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$-14,166 (vs do-nothing +$1,875)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9	7d	6 Nov 2026	$0.02	400/400	$800	$3,429	$3,429	96%hist 95%	9%hist 4%	96%	+$1,296	-$79,325	52.9%	1.9mo	$-95,766 (vs do-nothing $-79,725)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10.50	28d	27 Nov 2026	$0.07	400/400	$2,800	$3,000	$3,000	95%hist 95%	11%hist 13%	95%	+$1,390	-$17,325	11.6%	0.4mo	$-33,766 (vs do-nothing $-17,725)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10	21d	20 Nov 2026	$0.07	400/400	$2,800	$4,000	$4,000	94%hist 95%	12%hist 13%	95%	+$2,128	-$37,325	24.9%	0.9mo	$-53,766 (vs do-nothing $-37,725)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9.50	14d	13 Nov 2026	$0.05	400/400	$2,000	$4,286	$4,286	94%hist 95%	12%hist 13%	94%	+$1,821	-$58,125	38.8%	1.4mo	$-74,566 (vs do-nothing $-58,525)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8.50	7d	6 Nov 2026	$0.04	400/400	$1,600	$6,857	$6,857	93%hist 95%	14%hist 13%	93%	+$3,012	-$98,525	65.7%	2.3mo	$-114,966 (vs do-nothing $-98,925)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10	28d	27 Nov 2026	$0.10	400/400	$4,000	$4,286	$4,286	93%hist 95%	15%hist 13%	93%	+$1,962	-$36,125	24.1%	0.9mo	$-52,566 (vs do-nothing $-36,525)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9.50	21d	20 Nov 2026	$0.10	400/400	$4,000	$5,714	$5,714	92%hist 95%	17%hist 13%	93%	+$2,791	-$56,125	37.4%	1.3mo	$-72,566 (vs do-nothing $-56,525)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9	14d	13 Nov 2026	$0.08	400/400	$3,200	$6,857	$6,857	92%hist 95%	18%hist 13%	92%	+$2,903	-$76,925	51.3%	1.8mo	$-93,366 (vs do-nothing $-77,325)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9.50	28d	27 Nov 2026	$0.14	400/400	$5,600	$6,000	$6,000	90%hist 95%	21%hist 23%	91%	+$2,619	-$54,525	36.4%	1.3mo	$-70,966 (vs do-nothing $-54,925)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9	21d	20 Nov 2026	$0.14	400/400	$5,600	$8,000	$8,000	89%hist 86%	24%hist 23%	90%	+$3,274	-$74,525	49.7%	1.8mo	$-90,966 (vs do-nothing $-74,925)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8	7d	6 Nov 2026	$0.08	400/400	$3,200	$13,714	$13,714	87%hist 86%	26%hist 23%	89%	+$5,217	-$116,925	78.0%	2.8mo	$-133,366 (vs do-nothing $-117,325)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8.50	14d	13 Nov 2026	$0.12	400/400	$4,800	$10,286	$10,286	87%hist 86%	27%hist 23%	89%	+$3,545	-$95,325	63.6%	2.3mo	$-111,766 (vs do-nothing $-95,725)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9	28d	27 Nov 2026	$0.19	400/400	$7,600	$8,143	$8,143	87%hist 86%	28%hist 23%	89%	+$2,975	-$72,525	48.4%	1.7mo	$-88,966 (vs do-nothing $-72,925)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8.50	21d	20 Nov 2026	$0.21	400/400	$8,400	$12,000	$12,000	84%hist 86%	34%hist 30%	86%	+$4,283	-$91,725	61.2%	2.2mo	$-108,166 (vs do-nothing $-92,125)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8.50	28d	27 Nov 2026	$0.27	400/400	$10,800	$11,571	$11,571	82%hist 86%	38%hist 30%	85%	+$3,794	-$89,325	59.6%	2.1mo	$-105,766 (vs do-nothing $-89,725)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8	14d	13 Nov 2026	$0.21	400/400	$8,400	$18,000	$18,000	81%hist 86%	41%hist 40%	84%	+$6,096	-$111,725	74.5%	2.7mo	$-128,166 (vs do-nothing $-112,125)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8	21d	20 Nov 2026	$0.30	400/400	$12,000	$17,143	$17,143	78%hist 83%	48%hist 40%	82%	+$4,727	-$108,125	72.1%	2.6mo	$-124,566 (vs do-nothing $-108,525)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8	28d	27 Nov 2026	$0.37	400/400	$14,800	$15,857	$15,857	77%hist 83%	51%hist 44%	81%	+$4,360	-$105,325	70.2%	2.5mo	$-121,766 (vs do-nothing $-105,725)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract

Per cycle = bid x 100 x contracts, the cash this expiry pays. Touch = P(strike trades before expiry), with the graded record's hist pill. Recover = months of this income to close the hole to CC-SS. Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 400 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-10-31 03:19