200 contracts (20,000 sh) | BE SS: $22.69 | CC-SS: $17.85 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $207,600 | (ND $0.38 + SW $10) x 20000 |
| Normal income ref | $46,909/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $7,460/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-87,000 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 200 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 4d | 131 × $13.50 | 87% | $23,580 | $12,662 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 11d | 183 × $13.50 | 76% | $23,457 | $7,283 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 148 × $14 | 17 Jul | 4d | 13.7% | 94% | 13% | $2,072 | $15,540 | -$8,040 | $54,954 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 148 × $14 13.7% OTM over spot $12.32 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.15 mid) = $2,072 credit for the 4d cycle → $15,540/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $14.15) 95% EV / mo +$13,706 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.2-3.6] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.2 mo) · 56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 50% without) · ~3.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $30,584 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$7,904 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 84% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 148 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.95/sh now → $0.67 mid-life (likely $0.54–$1.05) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.53/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 219 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $14 (overshoots $0.30). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $17.85: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.14 collected) or spot ≥ $14.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.41 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.85, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-87,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$99,686 − CC assignment net of premium (148 × $14): -$54,954 + Conservative CC premium (52 × $23): +$52 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-42,216 (+$44,784 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $12,886 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-55,102, the opportunity cost of earning $15,540/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$26,344, position total $-48,402 (+$38,598 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 200 × $14 | 17 Jul | 4d | 13.7% | 94% | 13% | $2,800 | $21,000 | -$2,580 | $74,262 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 200 × $14 13.7% OTM over spot $12.32 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.15 mid) = $2,800 credit for the 4d cycle → $21,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $14.15) 95% EV / mo +$18,522 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [0.9-4.1] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.8 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 50% without) · ~3.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $38,796 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$10,680 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 84% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.95/sh now → $0.67 mid-life (likely $0.57–$1.09) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.53/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 240 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $14 (overshoots $0.32). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $17.85: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.14 collected) or spot ≥ $14.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.41 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.85, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-87,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$99,686 − CC assignment net of premium (200 × $14): -$74,262 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-61,576 (+$25,424 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $12,886 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-74,462, the opportunity cost of earning $21,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$35,600, position total $-57,710 (+$29,290 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 131 × $13.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 9.6% | 87% | 18% | $3,144 | $23,580 | — | $53,882 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 131 × $13.50 9.6% OTM over spot $12.32 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.25 mid) = $3,144 credit for the 4d cycle → $23,580/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $13.75) 91% EV / mo +$18,982 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.0-4.3] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.0 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 63% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 48% without) · ~7.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $47,236 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 18% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,174 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 88% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 131 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.90/sh now → $0.63 mid-life (likely $0.58–$1.04) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.24/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.39/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 525 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $14 (overshoots $0.30). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $4 below CC-SS $17.85: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.24 collected) or spot ≥ $13.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.41 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.85, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-87,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$99,686 − CC assignment net of premium (131 × $13.50): -$53,882 + Conservative CC premium (69 × $23): +$69 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-41,127 (+$45,873 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $12,886 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-54,013, the opportunity cost of earning $23,580/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$28,558, position total $-50,599 (+$36,401 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 161 × $13 | 17 Jul | 4d | 5.6% | 75% | 51% | $6,279 | $47,092 | +$23,513 | $71,856 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 161 × $13 5.6% OTM over spot $12.32 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.40 mid) = $6,279 credit for the 4d cycle → $47,092/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13) 75% Breach risk 25% POP (stays ≤ $13.40) 85% EV / mo +$32,491 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.1-3.8] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.2 mo) · 76% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 48% without) · ~12.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $67,809 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 36% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,334 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 91% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 161 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.84/sh now → $0.60 mid-life (likely $0.66–$1.08) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.21/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,067 simulated challenges: the $13 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $13 (overshoots $0.31). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13 is $5 below CC-SS $17.85: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.39 collected) or spot ≥ $13.40 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.41 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.85, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-87,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$99,686 − CC assignment net of premium (161 × $13): -$71,856 + Conservative CC premium (39 × $23): +$39 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-59,131 (+$27,869 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $12,886 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-72,017, the opportunity cost of earning $47,092/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$40,733, position total $-62,804 (+$24,196 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 200 × $15 | 24 Jul | 11d | 21.8% | 92% | 17% | $3,400 | $9,273 | -$14,185 | $53,662 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 200 × $15 21.8% OTM over spot $12.32 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.18 mid) = $3,400 credit for the 11d cycle → $9,273/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $15.19) 93% EV / mo +$6,703 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [0.9-4.0] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.7 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 52% without) · ~1.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $30,665 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$15,960 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 79% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.37/sh now → $0.97 mid-life (likely $0.77–$1.30) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.80/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 343 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $15 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $3 below CC-SS $17.85: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $15.19 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.41 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.85, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-87,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$99,686 − CC assignment net of premium (200 × $15): -$53,662 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-40,976 (+$46,024 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $12,886 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-53,862, the opportunity cost of earning $9,273/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$15,000, position total $-37,110 (+$49,890 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 172 × $14 | 24 Jul | 11d | 13.7% | 83% | 36% | $5,676 | $15,480 | -$7,977 | $60,597 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 172 × $14 13.7% OTM over spot $12.32 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.35 mid) = $5,676 credit for the 11d cycle → $15,480/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $14.35) 87% EV / mo +$9,414 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.1-3.7] median · 58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 50% without) · ~4.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $43,909 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$9,203 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 79% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 172 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.22/sh now → $0.87 mid-life (likely $0.80–$1.26) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.33/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.54/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 849 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 11, at $14 (overshoots $0.36). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $17.85: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.33 collected) or spot ≥ $14.35 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.41 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.85, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-87,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$99,686 − CC assignment net of premium (172 × $14): -$60,597 + Conservative CC premium (28 × $23): +$28 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-47,884 (+$39,116 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $12,886 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-60,769, the opportunity cost of earning $15,480/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$27,348, position total $-49,430 (+$37,570 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 183 × $13.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 9.6% | 76% | 40% | $8,601 | $23,457 | — | $71,061 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 183 × $13.50 9.6% OTM over spot $12.32 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.49 mid) = $8,601 credit for the 11d cycle → $23,457/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $13.99) 83% EV / mo +$12,698 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [0.9-3.9] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.9 mo) · 63% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 49% without) · ~5.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $50,466 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 40% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,325 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 87% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 183 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.15/sh now → $0.82 mid-life (likely $0.88–$1.29) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.47/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.35/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,192 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $14 (overshoots $0.33). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $4 below CC-SS $17.85: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.47 collected) or spot ≥ $13.99 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.41 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.85, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-87,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$99,686 − CC assignment net of premium (183 × $13.50): -$71,061 + Conservative CC premium (17 × $23): +$17 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-58,358 (+$28,642 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $12,886 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-71,244, the opportunity cost of earning $23,457/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$35,685, position total $-57,778 (+$29,222 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 200 × $12.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 1.5% | 57% | 91% | $17,200 | $46,909 | +$23,452 | $89,862 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 200 × $12.50 1.5% OTM over spot $12.32 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.87 mid) = $17,200 credit for the 11d cycle → $46,909/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12.50) 57% Breach risk 43% POP (stays ≤ $13.37) 74% EV / mo +$18,065 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.1-3.3] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.2 mo) · 74% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without) · ~16.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $51,442 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 76% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$2,781 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.02/sh now → $0.72 mid-life (likely $0.99–$1.35) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.86/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.14/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,295 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 11, at $13 (overshoots $0.36). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12.50 is $5 below CC-SS $17.85: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.86 collected) or spot ≥ $13.37 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.41 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.85, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-87,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$99,686 − CC assignment net of premium (200 × $12.50): -$89,862 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-77,176 (+$9,824 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $12,886 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-90,062, the opportunity cost of earning $46,909/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$51,200, position total $-73,310 (+$13,690 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 8 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$99,686 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $12,886
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.24 | 131/200 | $23,580 | $23,768 | 87% | 91% | +$18,982 | -$53,882 | 709.0% | $-41,127 (vs do-nothing $-54,013) |
| $13.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.47 | 183/200 | $23,457 | $23,504 | 76% | 83% | +$12,698 | -$71,061 | 935.0% | $-58,358 (vs do-nothing $-71,244) |
| $13 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.39 | 81/200 | $23,692 | $24,017 | 75% | 85% | +$16,346 | -$36,151 | 475.7% | $-23,346 (vs do-nothing $-36,232) |
| $13 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.63 | 137/200 | $23,539 | $23,711 | 67% | 78% | +$10,644 | -$57,856 | 761.3% | $-45,108 (vs do-nothing $-57,993) |
| $13 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.85 | 166/200 | $23,517 | $23,609 | 65% | 77% | +$8,823 | -$66,451 | 874.4% | $-53,732 (vs do-nothing $-66,617) |
| $12.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.61 | 52/200 | $23,790 | $24,194 | 59% | 78% | +$13,134 | -$24,664 | 324.5% | $-11,830 (vs do-nothing $-24,716) |
| $12.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.86 | 100/200 | $23,455 | $23,727 | 57% | 74% | +$9,032 | -$44,931 | 591.2% | $-32,145 (vs do-nothing $-45,031) |
| $12.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.13 | 125/200 | $23,542 | $23,746 | 57% | 73% | +$8,348 | -$52,789 | 694.6% | $-40,028 (vs do-nothing $-52,914) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 200 contracts at the conservative CC.