200 contracts (20,000 sh) | BE SS: $22.69 | CC-SS: $18.04 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $207,600 | (ND $0.38 + SW $10) x 20000 |
| Normal income ref | $46,909/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $7,735/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-87,000 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 200 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 4d | 200 × $14 | 91% | $21,000 | $12,261 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 11d | 183 × $13.50 | 73% | $23,457 | $7,848 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 148 × $14 | 17 Jul | 4d | 12.3% | 91% | 17% | $2,072 | $15,540 | -$5,460 | $57,685 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 148 × $14 12.3% OTM over spot $12.47 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.15 mid) = $2,072 credit for the 4d cycle → $15,540/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $14.15) 93% EV / mo +$12,776 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.1-3.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.2 mo) · 58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 50% without) · ~4.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $38,067 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,037 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $17 @ 86% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 148 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.77/sh now → $0.55 mid-life (likely $0.48–$0.89) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.41/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 290 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $14 (overshoots $0.34). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $18.04: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.14 collected) or spot ≥ $14.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.39 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.04, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-87,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$100,218 − CC assignment net of premium (148 × $14): -$57,685 + Conservative CC premium (52 × $23): +$52 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-44,415 (+$42,585 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $13,418 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-57,833, the opportunity cost of earning $15,540/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$26,344, position total $-51,192 (+$35,808 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 🛡 safe yield | 200 × $14 | 17 Jul | 4d | 12.3% | 91% | 11% | $2,800 | $21,000 | — | $77,953 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 200 × $14 12.3% OTM over spot $12.47 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.15 mid) = $2,800 credit for the 4d cycle → $21,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $14.15) 93% EV / mo +$17,265 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [1.0-3.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.8 mo) · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 50% without) · ~4.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $45,880 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$8,158 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $17 @ 86% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.77/sh now → $0.55 mid-life (likely $0.46–$0.91) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.41/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 319 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $14 (overshoots $0.33). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $18.04: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.14 collected) or spot ≥ $14.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.39 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.04, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-87,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$100,218 − CC assignment net of premium (200 × $14): -$77,953 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-64,735 (+$22,265 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $13,418 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-78,153, the opportunity cost of earning $21,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$35,600, position total $-60,500 (+$26,500 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 50% normal | 131 × $13.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 8.3% | 83% | 34% | $3,144 | $23,580 | +$2,580 | $56,299 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 131 × $13.50 8.3% OTM over spot $12.47 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.25 mid) = $3,144 credit for the 4d cycle → $23,580/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $13.75) 88% EV / mo +$17,028 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [0.9-4.1] median · 64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 49% without) · ~8.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $55,514 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,619 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 87% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 131 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.73/sh now → $0.52 mid-life (likely $0.52–$0.92) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.24/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 672 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $14 (overshoots $0.32). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $5 below CC-SS $18.04: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.24 collected) or spot ≥ $13.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.39 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.04, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-87,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$100,218 − CC assignment net of premium (131 × $13.50): -$56,299 + Conservative CC premium (69 × $23): +$69 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-43,012 (+$43,988 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $13,418 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-56,430, the opportunity cost of earning $23,580/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$28,558, position total $-53,389 (+$33,611 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 161 × $13 | 17 Jul | 4d | 4.3% | 70% | 61% | $6,279 | $47,092 | +$26,092 | $74,827 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 161 × $13 4.3% OTM over spot $12.47 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.40 mid) = $6,279 credit for the 4d cycle → $47,092/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13) 70% Breach risk 30% POP (stays ≤ $13.40) 81% EV / mo +$27,502 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.4 mo [1.1-3.9] median · 76% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 47% without) · ~15.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $68,375 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 43% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,537 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $17 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 161 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.69/sh now → $0.49 mid-life (likely $0.58–$0.95) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,297 simulated challenges: the $13 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $13 (overshoots $0.33). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13 is $5 below CC-SS $18.04: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.39 collected) or spot ≥ $13.40 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.39 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.04, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-87,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$100,218 − CC assignment net of premium (161 × $13): -$74,827 + Conservative CC premium (39 × $23): +$39 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-61,570 (+$25,430 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $13,418 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-74,988, the opportunity cost of earning $47,092/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$40,733, position total $-65,594 (+$21,406 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 200 × $15 | 24 Jul | 11d | 20.3% | 90% | 20% | $3,400 | $9,273 | -$14,185 | $57,353 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 200 × $15 20.3% OTM over spot $12.47 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.18 mid) = $3,400 credit for the 11d cycle → $9,273/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $15.19) 92% EV / mo +$6,048 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [1.0-3.7] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.7 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 52% without) · ~2.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $27,322 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$13,722 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 77% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.21/sh now → $0.86 mid-life (likely $0.70–$1.14) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.69/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 387 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $15 (overshoots $0.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $3 below CC-SS $18.04: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $15.19 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.39 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.04, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-87,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$100,218 − CC assignment net of premium (200 × $15): -$57,353 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-44,135 (+$42,865 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $13,418 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-57,553, the opportunity cost of earning $9,273/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$15,000, position total $-39,900 (+$47,100 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 172 × $14 | 24 Jul | 11d | 12.3% | 81% | 41% | $5,676 | $15,480 | -$7,977 | $63,772 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 172 × $14 12.3% OTM over spot $12.47 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.35 mid) = $5,676 credit for the 11d cycle → $15,480/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $14.35) 85% EV / mo +$8,104 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.0-3.7] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.1 mo) · 59% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 50% without) · ~4.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $40,966 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$7,481 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 81% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 172 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.08/sh now → $0.76 mid-life (likely $0.76–$1.16) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.33/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.43/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 971 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $14 (overshoots $0.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $18.04: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.33 collected) or spot ≥ $14.35 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.39 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.04, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-87,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$100,218 − CC assignment net of premium (172 × $14): -$63,772 + Conservative CC premium (28 × $23): +$28 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-50,526 (+$36,474 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $13,418 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-63,944, the opportunity cost of earning $15,480/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$27,348, position total $-52,220 (+$34,780 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 183 × $13.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 8.3% | 73% | 43% | $8,601 | $23,457 | — | $74,438 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 183 × $13.50 8.3% OTM over spot $12.47 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.49 mid) = $8,601 credit for the 11d cycle → $23,457/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $13.99) 81% EV / mo +$10,823 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [0.9-4.0] median · 64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 50% without) · ~7.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $49,214 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 43% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,597 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 89% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 183 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.02/sh now → $0.72 mid-life (likely $0.83–$1.17) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.47/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.25/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,301 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $14 (overshoots $0.34). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $5 below CC-SS $18.04: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.47 collected) or spot ≥ $13.99 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.39 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.04, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-87,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$100,218 − CC assignment net of premium (183 × $13.50): -$74,438 + Conservative CC premium (17 × $23): +$17 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-61,203 (+$25,797 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $13,418 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-74,621, the opportunity cost of earning $23,457/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$35,685, position total $-60,568 (+$26,432 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 200 × $12.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 0.2% | 54% | 99% | $17,200 | $46,909 | +$23,452 | $93,553 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 200 × $12.50 0.2% OTM over spot $12.47 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.87 mid) = $17,200 credit for the 11d cycle → $46,909/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12.50) 54% Breach risk 46% POP (stays ≤ $13.37) 71% EV / mo +$14,184 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.0-3.3] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.2 mo) · 74% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 55% without) · ~19.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $48,201 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 82% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$4,454 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.90/sh now → $0.64 mid-life (likely $0.91–$1.27) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.86/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.22/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,451 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 11, at $13 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12.50 is $6 below CC-SS $18.04: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.86 collected) or spot ≥ $13.37 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.39 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.04, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-87,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$100,218 − CC assignment net of premium (200 × $12.50): -$93,553 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-80,335 (+$6,665 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $13,418 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-93,753, the opportunity cost of earning $46,909/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$51,200, position total $-76,100 (+$10,900 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 8 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$100,218 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $13,418
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.24 | 131/200 | $23,580 | $23,768 | 83% | 88% | +$17,028 | -$56,299 | 740.8% | $-43,012 (vs do-nothing $-56,430) |
| $13.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.47 | 183/200 | $23,457 | $23,504 | 73% | 81% | +$10,823 | -$74,438 | 979.5% | $-61,203 (vs do-nothing $-74,621) |
| $13 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.39 | 81/200 | $23,692 | $24,017 | 70% | 81% | +$13,837 | -$37,646 | 495.3% | $-24,309 (vs do-nothing $-37,727) |
| $13 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.63 | 137/200 | $23,539 | $23,711 | 64% | 76% | +$8,710 | -$60,385 | 794.5% | $-47,104 (vs do-nothing $-60,522) |
| $13 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.85 | 166/200 | $23,517 | $23,609 | 62% | 74% | +$7,034 | -$69,515 | 914.7% | $-56,263 (vs do-nothing $-69,681) |
| $12.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.13 | 125/200 | $23,542 | $23,746 | 54% | 71% | +$6,694 | -$55,096 | 724.9% | $-41,803 (vs do-nothing $-55,221) |
| $12.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.86 | 100/200 | $23,455 | $23,727 | 54% | 71% | +$7,092 | -$46,777 | 615.5% | $-33,459 (vs do-nothing $-46,877) |
| $12.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.61 | 52/200 | $23,790 | $24,194 | 53% | 74% | +$10,312 | -$25,624 | 337.2% | $-12,258 (vs do-nothing $-25,676) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 200 contracts at the conservative CC.