200 contracts (20,000 sh) | BE SS: $22.69 | CC-SS: $17.99 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $207,600 | (ND $0.38 + SW $10) x 20000 |
| Normal income ref | $46,909/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $7,664/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-87,000 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 200 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 4d | 131 × $13.50 | 84% | $23,580 | $12,556 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 11d | 183 × $13.50 | 74% | $23,457 | $7,779 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 148 × $14 | 17 Jul | 4d | 12.6% | 92% | 16% | $2,072 | $15,540 | -$8,040 | $56,983 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 148 × $14 12.6% OTM over spot $12.43 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.15 mid) = $2,072 credit for the 4d cycle → $15,540/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $14.15) 94% EV / mo +$13,047 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.1-3.4] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.2 mo) · 58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 50% without) · ~4.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $35,984 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,470 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $17 @ 86% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 148 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.82/sh now → $0.58 mid-life (likely $0.51–$0.91) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.44/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 272 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $14 (overshoots $0.33). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $17.99: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.14 collected) or spot ≥ $14.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.99, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-87,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$100,083 − CC assignment net of premium (148 × $14): -$56,983 + Conservative CC premium (52 × $23): +$52 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-43,847 (+$43,153 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $13,283 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-57,131, the opportunity cost of earning $15,540/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$26,344, position total $-50,472 (+$36,528 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 200 × $14 | 17 Jul | 4d | 12.6% | 92% | 16% | $2,800 | $21,000 | -$2,580 | $77,004 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 200 × $14 12.6% OTM over spot $12.43 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.15 mid) = $2,800 credit for the 4d cycle → $21,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $14.15) 94% EV / mo +$17,632 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [1.0-4.0] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.8 mo) · 61% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 50% without) · ~4.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $44,535 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$8,743 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $17 @ 86% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.82/sh now → $0.58 mid-life (likely $0.52–$0.97) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.44/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 281 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $14 (overshoots $0.33). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $17.99: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.14 collected) or spot ≥ $14.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.99, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-87,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$100,083 − CC assignment net of premium (200 × $14): -$77,004 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-63,920 (+$23,080 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $13,283 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-77,204, the opportunity cost of earning $21,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$35,600, position total $-59,780 (+$27,220 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 131 × $13.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 8.6% | 84% | 21% | $3,144 | $23,580 | — | $55,677 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 131 × $13.50 8.6% OTM over spot $12.43 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.25 mid) = $3,144 credit for the 4d cycle → $23,580/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $13.75) 89% EV / mo +$17,585 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.0-4.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.1 mo) · 64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 49% without) · ~8.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $53,996 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 21% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,980 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 87% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 131 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.77/sh now → $0.54 mid-life (likely $0.54–$0.95) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.24/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 619 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $14 (overshoots $0.32). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $4 below CC-SS $17.99: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.24 collected) or spot ≥ $13.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.99, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-87,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$100,083 − CC assignment net of premium (131 × $13.50): -$55,677 + Conservative CC premium (69 × $23): +$69 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-42,525 (+$44,475 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $13,283 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-55,808, the opportunity cost of earning $23,580/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$28,558, position total $-52,669 (+$34,331 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 161 × $13 | 17 Jul | 4d | 4.6% | 72% | 59% | $6,279 | $47,092 | +$23,513 | $74,063 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 161 × $13 4.6% OTM over spot $12.43 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.40 mid) = $6,279 credit for the 4d cycle → $47,092/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13) 72% Breach risk 28% POP (stays ≤ $13.40) 82% EV / mo +$28,892 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.2 mo [1.1-4.0] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.4 mo) · 77% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 48% without) · ~14.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $71,861 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 41% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,954 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $17 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 161 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.72/sh now → $0.51 mid-life (likely $0.60–$0.97) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.12/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,231 simulated challenges: the $13 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $13 (overshoots $0.31). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13 is $5 below CC-SS $17.99: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.39 collected) or spot ≥ $13.40 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.99, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-87,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$100,083 − CC assignment net of premium (161 × $13): -$74,063 + Conservative CC premium (39 × $23): +$39 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-60,941 (+$26,059 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $13,283 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-74,224, the opportunity cost of earning $47,092/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$40,733, position total $-64,874 (+$22,126 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 200 × $15 | 24 Jul | 11d | 20.7% | 91% | 19% | $3,400 | $9,273 | -$14,185 | $56,404 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 200 × $15 20.7% OTM over spot $12.43 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.18 mid) = $3,400 credit for the 11d cycle → $9,273/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $15.19) 92% EV / mo +$6,228 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [1.0-4.0] median, 0.3 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.6 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 52% without) · ~2.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $29,005 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$14,275 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 77% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.25/sh now → $0.88 mid-life (likely $0.70–$1.18) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.71/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 372 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $15 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $3 below CC-SS $17.99: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $15.19 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.99, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-87,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$100,083 − CC assignment net of premium (200 × $15): -$56,404 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-43,320 (+$43,680 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $13,283 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-56,604, the opportunity cost of earning $9,273/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$15,000, position total $-39,180 (+$47,820 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 172 × $14 | 24 Jul | 11d | 12.6% | 81% | 39% | $5,676 | $15,480 | -$7,977 | $62,955 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 172 × $14 12.6% OTM over spot $12.43 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.35 mid) = $5,676 credit for the 11d cycle → $15,480/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $14.35) 85% EV / mo +$8,461 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.0-3.7] median · 58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 49% without) · ~4.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $42,073 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 31% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$7,905 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 82% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 172 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.12/sh now → $0.79 mid-life (likely $0.77–$1.19) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.33/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 926 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $14 (overshoots $0.36). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $17.99: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.33 collected) or spot ≥ $14.35 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.99, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-87,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$100,083 − CC assignment net of premium (172 × $14): -$62,955 + Conservative CC premium (28 × $23): +$28 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-49,844 (+$37,156 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $13,283 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-63,127, the opportunity cost of earning $15,480/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$27,348, position total $-51,500 (+$35,500 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 183 × $13.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 8.6% | 74% | 42% | $8,601 | $23,457 | — | $73,569 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 183 × $13.50 8.6% OTM over spot $12.43 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.49 mid) = $8,601 credit for the 11d cycle → $23,457/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 74% Breach risk 26% POP (stays ≤ $13.99) 81% EV / mo +$11,376 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [0.9-3.9] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.9 mo) · 64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 50% without) · ~6.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $50,159 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 42% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,021 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 89% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 183 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.05/sh now → $0.74 mid-life (likely $0.84–$1.20) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.47/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.27/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,266 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $14 (overshoots $0.34). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $4 below CC-SS $17.99: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.47 collected) or spot ≥ $13.99 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.99, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-87,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$100,083 − CC assignment net of premium (183 × $13.50): -$73,569 + Conservative CC premium (17 × $23): +$17 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-60,469 (+$26,531 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $13,283 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-73,752, the opportunity cost of earning $23,457/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$35,685, position total $-59,848 (+$27,152 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 200 × $12.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 0.6% | 54% | 97% | $17,200 | $46,909 | +$23,452 | $92,604 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 200 × $12.50 0.6% OTM over spot $12.43 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.87 mid) = $17,200 credit for the 11d cycle → $46,909/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12.50) 54% Breach risk 46% POP (stays ≤ $13.37) 72% EV / mo +$15,300 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.1-3.6] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.2 mo) · 73% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without) · ~19.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $50,184 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 81% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$4,045 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 91% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.93/sh now → $0.66 mid-life (likely $0.93–$1.29) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.86/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.20/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,419 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 11, at $13 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12.50 is $5 below CC-SS $17.99: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.86 collected) or spot ≥ $13.37 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.99, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-87,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$100,083 − CC assignment net of premium (200 × $12.50): -$92,604 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-79,520 (+$7,480 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $13,283 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-92,804, the opportunity cost of earning $46,909/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$51,200, position total $-75,380 (+$11,620 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 8 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$100,083 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $13,283
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.24 | 131/200 | $23,580 | $23,768 | 84% | 89% | +$17,585 | -$55,677 | 732.6% | $-42,525 (vs do-nothing $-55,808) |
| $13.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.47 | 183/200 | $23,457 | $23,504 | 74% | 81% | +$11,376 | -$73,569 | 968.0% | $-60,469 (vs do-nothing $-73,752) |
| $13 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.39 | 81/200 | $23,692 | $24,017 | 72% | 82% | +$14,536 | -$37,262 | 490.3% | $-24,059 (vs do-nothing $-37,343) |
| $13 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.63 | 137/200 | $23,539 | $23,711 | 65% | 76% | +$9,288 | -$59,735 | 786.0% | $-46,588 (vs do-nothing $-59,872) |
| $13 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.85 | 166/200 | $23,517 | $23,609 | 63% | 75% | +$7,508 | -$68,727 | 904.3% | $-55,610 (vs do-nothing $-68,893) |
| $12.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.13 | 125/200 | $23,542 | $23,746 | 55% | 72% | +$7,130 | -$54,502 | 717.1% | $-41,344 (vs do-nothing $-54,627) |
| $12.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.86 | 100/200 | $23,455 | $23,727 | 54% | 72% | +$7,650 | -$46,302 | 609.2% | $-33,119 (vs do-nothing $-46,402) |
| $12.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.61 | 52/200 | $23,790 | $24,194 | 54% | 75% | +$11,080 | -$25,377 | 333.9% | $-12,146 (vs do-nothing $-25,429) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 200 contracts at the conservative CC.