200 contracts (20,000 sh) | BE SS: $22.69 | CC-SS: $18.59 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $207,600 | (ND $0.38 + SW $10) x 20000 |
| Normal income ref | $32,727/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $7,522/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-102,100 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 200 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 4d | 182 × $13.50 | 83% | $16,380 | $3,643 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 11d | 200 × $13.50 | 75% | $16,364 | $1,712 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 200 × $14.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 18.4% | 94% | 13% | $800 | $6,000 | -$10,380 | $80,970 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 200 × $14.50 18.4% OTM over spot $12.25 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.04 mid) = $800 credit for the 4d cycle → $6,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $14.54) 94% EV / mo +$2,563 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.1-3.7] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.1 mo) · 52% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 48% without) · ~3.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $20,945 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$8,075 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $17 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.63/sh now → $0.44 mid-life (likely $0.37–$0.67) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.40/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 197 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $15 (overshoots $0.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $4 below CC-SS $18.59: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.04 collected) or spot ≥ $14.54 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.78 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.59, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-102,100 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$98,247 − CC assignment net of premium (200 × $14.50): -$80,970 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-84,823 (+$17,277 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,653 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-81,170, the opportunity cost of earning $6,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.95 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$28,200, position total $-72,950 (+$29,150 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 121 × $13.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 10.2% | 83% | 35% | $1,452 | $10,890 | -$5,490 | $60,119 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 121 × $13.50 10.2% OTM over spot $12.25 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.13 mid) = $1,452 credit for the 4d cycle → $10,890/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $13.63) 85% EV / mo +$3,016 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.2 mo [1.1-4.1] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.3 mo) · 53% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 47% without) · ~10.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $32,010 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,359 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 121 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.56/sh now → $0.40 mid-life (likely $0.40–$0.70) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 670 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $14 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $5 below CC-SS $18.59: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $13.63 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.78 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.59, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-102,100 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$98,247 − CC assignment net of premium (121 × $13.50): -$60,119 + Conservative CC premium (79 × $20): +$79 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-63,893 (+$38,207 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,653 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-60,240, the opportunity cost of earning $10,890/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.95 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$28,193, position total $-72,864 (+$29,236 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 182 × $13.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 10.2% | 83% | 23% | $2,184 | $16,380 | — | $90,427 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 182 × $13.50 10.2% OTM over spot $12.25 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.13 mid) = $2,184 credit for the 4d cycle → $16,380/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $13.63) 85% EV / mo +$4,537 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.2 mo [1.1-4.3] median · 58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 49% without) · ~9.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $42,811 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,053 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 182 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.56/sh now → $0.40 mid-life (likely $0.40–$0.68) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 704 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $14 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $5 below CC-SS $18.59: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $13.63 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.78 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.59, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-102,100 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$98,247 − CC assignment net of premium (182 × $13.50): -$90,427 + Conservative CC premium (18 × $20): +$18 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-94,262 (+$7,838 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,653 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-90,609, the opportunity cost of earning $16,380/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.95 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$42,406, position total $-87,138 (+$14,962 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 118 × $12.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 2.0% | 60% | 84% | $4,366 | $32,745 | +$16,365 | $67,478 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 118 × $12.50 2.0% OTM over spot $12.25 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.38 mid) = $4,366 credit for the 4d cycle → $32,745/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12.50) 60% Breach risk 40% POP (stays ≤ $12.88) 70% EV / mo +$4,195 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.5 mo [1.5-4.7] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.4 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 61% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 45% without) · ~31.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $53,347 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 60% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$191 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 92% POP 92% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 118 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.50/sh now → $0.35 mid-life (likely $0.46–$0.78) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.37/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,792 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $13 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12.50 is $6 below CC-SS $18.59: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.37 collected) or spot ≥ $12.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.78 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.59, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-102,100 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$98,247 − CC assignment net of premium (118 × $12.50): -$67,478 + Conservative CC premium (82 × $20): +$82 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-71,250 (+$30,850 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,653 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-67,596, the opportunity cost of earning $32,745/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.95 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$36,344, position total $-81,012 (+$21,088 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 200 × $15 | 24 Jul | 11d | 22.4% | 90% | 20% | $2,200 | $6,000 | -$10,364 | $69,570 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 200 × $15 22.4% OTM over spot $12.25 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.11 mid) = $2,200 credit for the 11d cycle → $6,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $15.12) 91% EV / mo +$2,472 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.5 mo [1.2-4.6] median · 50% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 44% without) · ~2.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $21,898 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$12,798 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 73% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.06/sh now → $0.75 mid-life (likely $0.62–$1.01) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.64/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 447 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 11, at $15 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $4 below CC-SS $18.59: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $15.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.78 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.59, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-102,100 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$98,247 − CC assignment net of premium (200 × $15): -$69,570 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-73,423 (+$28,677 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,653 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-69,770, the opportunity cost of earning $6,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.95 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$16,800, position total $-61,550 (+$40,550 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 189 × $14 | 24 Jul | 11d | 14.3% | 82% | 38% | $3,969 | $10,825 | -$5,539 | $82,754 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 189 × $14 14.3% OTM over spot $12.25 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.22 mid) = $3,969 credit for the 11d cycle → $10,825/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $14.22) 84% EV / mo +$2,733 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.4 mo [1.3-4.2] median · 51% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 43% without) · ~5.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $33,612 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 30% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$8,758 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 77% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 189 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.95/sh now → $0.67 mid-life (likely $0.70–$1.02) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.21/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 899 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $14 (overshoots $0.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $5 below CC-SS $18.59: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.21 collected) or spot ≥ $14.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.78 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.59, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-102,100 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$98,247 − CC assignment net of premium (189 × $14): -$82,754 + Conservative CC premium (11 × $20): +$11 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-86,596 (+$15,504 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,653 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-82,943, the opportunity cost of earning $10,825/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.95 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$32,886, position total $-77,625 (+$24,475 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 200 × $13.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 10.2% | 75% | 42% | $6,000 | $16,364 | — | $95,770 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 200 × $13.50 10.2% OTM over spot $12.25 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.32 mid) = $6,000 credit for the 11d cycle → $16,364/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 75% Breach risk 25% POP (stays ≤ $13.81) 79% EV / mo +$1,784 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.1-4.3] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.2 mo) · 51% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 44% without) · ~7.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $40,512 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 42% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,730 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.90/sh now → $0.64 mid-life (likely $0.70–$1.02) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.34/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,266 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $14 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $5 below CC-SS $18.59: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.30 collected) or spot ≥ $13.81 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.78 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.59, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-102,100 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$98,247 − CC assignment net of premium (200 × $13.50): -$95,770 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-99,623 (+$2,477 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,653 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-95,970, the opportunity cost of earning $16,364/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.95 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$43,000, position total $-87,750 (+$14,350 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 200 × $12.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 2.0% | 58% | 89% | $12,000 | $32,727 | +$16,364 | $109,770 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 200 × $12.50 2.0% OTM over spot $12.25 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.64 mid) = $12,000 credit for the 11d cycle → $32,727/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12.50) 58% Breach risk 42% POP (stays ≤ $13.13) 69% EV / mo +$971 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.5 mo [1.4-4.0] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.6 mo) · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 47% without) · ~18.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $49,005 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 75% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$687 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.80/sh now → $0.57 mid-life (likely $0.77–$1.05) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,245 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 11, at $13 (overshoots $0.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12.50 is $6 below CC-SS $18.59: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.60 collected) or spot ≥ $13.13 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.78 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.59, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-102,100 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$98,247 − CC assignment net of premium (200 × $12.50): -$109,770 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-113,623 ($-11,523 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,653 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-109,970, the opportunity cost of earning $32,727/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.95 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$57,000, position total $-101,750 (+$350 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 9 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.775 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$98,247 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,653
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.12 | 182/200 | $16,380 | $16,429 | 83% | 85% | +$4,537 | -$90,427 | 1189.8% | $-94,262 (vs do-nothing $-90,609) |
| $13.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.30 | 200/200 | $16,364 | $16,364 | 75% | 79% | +$1,784 | -$95,770 | 1260.1% | $-99,623 (vs do-nothing $-95,970) |
| $13 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.21 | 104/200 | $16,380 | $16,642 | 73% | 78% | +$3,031 | -$55,936 | 736.0% | $-59,694 (vs do-nothing $-56,040) |
| $13.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.51 | 193/200 | $16,405 | $16,424 | 72% | 78% | +$3,415 | -$88,365 | 1162.7% | $-92,211 (vs do-nothing $-88,558) |
| $13 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.44 | 137/200 | $16,440 | $16,612 | 68% | 75% | +$2,804 | -$70,534 | 928.1% | $-74,325 (vs do-nothing $-70,671) |
| $13 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.65 | 152/200 | $16,467 | $16,598 | 65% | 74% | +$2,456 | -$75,065 | 987.7% | $-78,870 (vs do-nothing $-75,217) |
| $12.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.37 | 59/200 | $16,372 | $16,757 | 60% | 70% | +$2,097 | -$33,739 | 443.9% | $-37,451 (vs do-nothing $-33,798) |
| $12.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.60 | 100/200 | $16,364 | $16,636 | 58% | 69% | +$486 | -$54,885 | 722.2% | $-58,638 (vs do-nothing $-54,985) |
| $12.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.84 | 117/200 | $16,380 | $16,606 | 58% | 70% | +$1,823 | -$61,407 | 808.0% | $-65,178 (vs do-nothing $-61,524) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 200 contracts at the conservative CC.