200 contracts (20,000 sh) | BE SS: $22.69 | CC-SS: $17.89 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $207,600 | (ND $0.38 + SW $10) x 20000 |
| Normal income ref | $34,412/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $6,772/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-92,600 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 200 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 3d | 192 × $13.50 | 90% | $17,280 | $7,798 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 10d | 140 × $13 | 71% | $17,220 | $4,225 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 127 × $13.50 | 17 Jul | 3d | 11.9% | 90% | 20% | $1,143 | $11,430 | -$5,850 | $54,563 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 127 × $13.50 11.9% OTM over spot $12.06 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.10 mid) = $1,143 credit for the 3d cycle → $11,430/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $13.60) 92% EV / mo +$7,716 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.1-4.7] median, 0.3 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.0 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 45% without) · ~7.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $40,563 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,408 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 127 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.62/sh now → $0.44 mid-life (likely $0.41–$0.78) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.35/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 316 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $14 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $4 below CC-SS $17.89: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $13.60 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.44 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.77 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.89, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-92,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$89,415 − CC assignment net of premium (127 × $13.50): -$54,563 + Conservative CC premium (73 × $21): +$73 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-57,675 (+$34,925 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,985 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-54,690, the opportunity cost of earning $11,430/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.93 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$29,718, position total $-62,879 (+$29,721 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 192 × $13.50 | 17 Jul | 3d | 11.9% | 90% | 11% | $1,728 | $17,280 | — | $82,489 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 192 × $13.50 11.9% OTM over spot $12.06 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.10 mid) = $1,728 credit for the 3d cycle → $17,280/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $13.60) 92% EV / mo +$11,664 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.2 mo [1.3-3.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.3 mo) · 64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 47% without) · ~6.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $49,138 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,664 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 192 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.62/sh now → $0.44 mid-life (likely $0.40–$0.77) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.35/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 339 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $14 (overshoots $0.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $4 below CC-SS $17.89: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $13.60 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.44 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.77 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.89, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-92,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$89,415 − CC assignment net of premium (192 × $13.50): -$82,489 + Conservative CC premium (8 × $21): +$8 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-85,666 (+$6,934 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,985 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-82,681, the opportunity cost of earning $17,280/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.93 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$44,928, position total $-78,154 (+$14,446 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 200 × $13.50 | 17 Jul | 3d | 11.9% | 90% | 20% | $1,800 | $18,000 | +$720 | $85,926 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 200 × $13.50 11.9% OTM over spot $12.06 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.10 mid) = $1,800 credit for the 3d cycle → $18,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $13.60) 92% EV / mo +$12,150 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [1.0-3.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.0 mo) · 64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 52% without) · ~5.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $48,721 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,941 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.62/sh now → $0.44 mid-life (likely $0.40–$0.79) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.35/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 339 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $14 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $4 below CC-SS $17.89: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $13.60 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.44 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.77 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.89, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-92,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$89,415 − CC assignment net of premium (200 × $13.50): -$85,926 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-89,111 (+$3,489 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,985 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-86,126, the opportunity cost of earning $18,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.93 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$46,800, position total $-80,034 (+$12,566 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 108 × $12.50 | 17 Jul | 3d | 3.6% | 67% | 68% | $3,456 | $34,560 | +$17,280 | $54,716 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 108 × $12.50 3.6% OTM over spot $12.06 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.33 mid) = $3,456 credit for the 3d cycle → $34,560/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12.50) 67% Breach risk 33% POP (stays ≤ $12.83) 77% EV / mo +$13,903 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.2 mo [1.2-4.0] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.3 mo) · 66% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 50% without) · ~24.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $57,484 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 46% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$738 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 108 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.55/sh now → $0.39 mid-life (likely $0.47–$0.84) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.32/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.07/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,390 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $13 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12.50 is $5 below CC-SS $17.89: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.32 collected) or spot ≥ $12.83 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.44 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.77 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.89, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-92,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$89,415 − CC assignment net of premium (108 × $12.50): -$54,716 + Conservative CC premium (92 × $21): +$92 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-57,809 (+$34,791 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,985 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-54,824, the opportunity cost of earning $34,560/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.93 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$33,588, position total $-66,730 (+$25,870 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 200 × $15 | 24 Jul | 10d | 24.3% | 93% | 15% | $1,800 | $5,400 | -$11,820 | $55,926 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 200 × $15 24.3% OTM over spot $12.06 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.10 mid) = $1,800 credit for the 10d cycle → $5,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $15.10) 93% EV / mo +$3,001 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.1-4.4] median · 56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 51% without) · ~1.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $19,804 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$14,459 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 75% POP 66% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.15/sh now → $0.81 mid-life (likely $0.68–$1.09) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.72/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 252 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $15 (overshoots $0.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $3 below CC-SS $17.89: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $15.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.44 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.77 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.89, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-92,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$89,415 − CC assignment net of premium (200 × $15): -$55,926 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-59,111 (+$33,489 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,985 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-56,126, the opportunity cost of earning $5,400/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.93 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$16,800, position total $-50,034 (+$42,566 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 190 × $14 | 24 Jul | 10d | 16.0% | 85% | 31% | $3,800 | $11,400 | -$5,820 | $70,040 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 190 × $14 16.0% OTM over spot $12.06 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.21 mid) = $3,800 credit for the 10d cycle → $11,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $14.21) 87% EV / mo +$5,356 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.4 mo [1.5-4.7] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.5 mo) · 50% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 40% without) · ~4.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $38,945 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$10,035 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 76% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 190 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.03/sh now → $0.73 mid-life (likely $0.67–$1.06) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.53/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 647 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $14 (overshoots $0.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $17.89: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $14.21 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.44 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.77 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.89, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-92,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$89,415 − CC assignment net of premium (190 × $14): -$70,040 + Conservative CC premium (10 × $21): +$10 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-73,215 (+$19,385 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,985 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-70,230, the opportunity cost of earning $11,400/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.93 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$32,870, position total $-66,094 (+$26,506 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 140 × $13 | 24 Jul | 10d | 7.7% | 71% | 48% | $5,740 | $17,220 | — | $62,668 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 140 × $13 7.7% OTM over spot $12.06 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.42 mid) = $5,740 credit for the 10d cycle → $17,220/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13) 71% Breach risk 29% POP (stays ≤ $13.43) 78% EV / mo +$5,147 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.3-3.9] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.3 mo) · 56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 48% without) · ~9.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $38,505 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 48% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,328 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 140 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.92/sh now → $0.65 mid-life (likely $0.77–$1.08) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.41/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.24/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,433 simulated challenges: the $13 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 10, at $13 (overshoots $0.36). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13 is $5 below CC-SS $17.89: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.41 collected) or spot ≥ $13.43 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.44 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.77 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.89, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-92,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$89,415 − CC assignment net of premium (140 × $13): -$62,668 + Conservative CC premium (60 × $21): +$60 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-65,793 (+$26,807 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,985 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-62,808, the opportunity cost of earning $17,220/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.93 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$35,280, position total $-68,454 (+$24,146 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 198 × $12.50 | 24 Jul | 10d | 3.6% | 62% | 80% | $11,484 | $34,452 | +$17,232 | $95,165 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 198 × $12.50 3.6% OTM over spot $12.06 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.62 mid) = $11,484 credit for the 10d cycle → $34,452/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12.50) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $13.12) 74% EV / mo +$9,010 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.1-4.2] median · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 45% without) · ~14.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $56,679 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 65% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$577 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 198 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.86/sh now → $0.61 mid-life (likely $0.80–$1.08) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.58/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,957 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $13 (overshoots $0.35). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12.50 is $5 below CC-SS $17.89: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.58 collected) or spot ≥ $13.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.44 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.77 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.89, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-92,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$89,415 − CC assignment net of premium (198 × $12.50): -$95,165 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $21): +$2 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-98,348 ($-5,748 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,985 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-95,363, the opportunity cost of earning $34,452/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.93 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$56,430, position total $-89,662 (+$2,938 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 10 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.768 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$89,415 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,985
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.09 | 192/200 | $17,280 | $17,304 | 90% | 92% | +$11,664 | -$82,489 | 1085.4% | $-85,666 (vs do-nothing $-82,681) |
| $13 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.17 | 102/200 | $17,340 | $17,634 | 81% | 85% | +$9,247 | -$48,106 | 633.0% | $-51,193 (vs do-nothing $-48,208) |
| $13 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.41 | 140/200 | $17,220 | $17,400 | 71% | 78% | +$5,147 | -$62,668 | 824.6% | $-65,793 (vs do-nothing $-62,808) |
| $13 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.64 | 153/200 | $17,280 | $17,421 | 68% | 76% | +$4,790 | -$64,969 | 854.8% | $-68,106 (vs do-nothing $-65,122) |
| $12.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.32 | 54/200 | $17,280 | $17,718 | 67% | 77% | +$6,951 | -$27,358 | 360.0% | $-30,397 (vs do-nothing $-27,412) |
| $12.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.58 | 99/200 | $17,226 | $17,529 | 62% | 74% | +$4,505 | -$47,583 | 626.1% | $-50,666 (vs do-nothing $-47,682) |
| $12.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.78 | 126/200 | $17,344 | $17,566 | 61% | 73% | +$3,296 | -$58,040 | 763.7% | $-61,150 (vs do-nothing $-58,166) |
| $12 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.04 | 94/200 | $17,252 | $17,570 | 53% | 69% | +$3,184 | -$45,555 | 599.4% | $-48,634 (vs do-nothing $-45,649) |
| $12 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.80 | 72/200 | $17,280 | $17,664 | 52% | 69% | +$3,370 | -$36,621 | 481.9% | $-39,678 (vs do-nothing $-36,693) |
| $12 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.52 | 34/200 | $17,680 | $18,178 | 49% | 69% | +$4,395 | -$18,245 | 240.1% | $-21,264 (vs do-nothing $-18,279) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 200 contracts at the conservative CC.