200 contracts (20,000 sh) | BE SS: $22.69 | CC-SS: $18.50 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $207,600 | (ND $0.38 + SW $10) x 20000 |
| Normal income ref | $28,941/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $7,740/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-98,600 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 200 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 3d | 161 × $13.50 | 83% | $14,490 | $4,555 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 10d | 173 × $13.50 | 73% | $14,532 | $1,758 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 200 × $14.50 | 17 Jul | 3d | 17.3% | 93% | 14% | $600 | $6,000 | -$8,490 | $79,311 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 200 × $14.50 17.3% OTM over spot $12.36 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.04 mid) = $600 credit for the 3d cycle → $6,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $14.54) 93% EV / mo +$1,177 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.0-3.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.0 mo) · 53% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 50% without) · ~4.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $18,678 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,025 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $17 @ 83% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.47/sh now → $0.33 mid-life (likely $0.30–$0.64) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.03/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 173 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 3, at $15 (overshoots $0.49). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $4 below CC-SS $18.50: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.03 collected) or spot ≥ $14.54 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.26 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.78 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.50, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-98,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$95,715 − CC assignment net of premium (200 × $14.50): -$79,311 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-82,196 (+$16,404 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,685 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-79,511, the opportunity cost of earning $6,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.98 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$29,000, position total $-71,128 (+$27,472 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 192 × $14 | 17 Jul | 3d | 13.3% | 89% | 23% | $960 | $9,600 | -$4,890 | $85,355 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 192 × $14 13.3% OTM over spot $12.36 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.06 mid) = $960 credit for the 3d cycle → $9,600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 89% Breach risk 11% POP (stays ≤ $14.06) 90% EV / mo +$543 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [0.9-3.7] median · 61% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 55% without) · ~7.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $24,886 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,074 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $17 @ 84% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 192 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.44/sh now → $0.31 mid-life (likely $0.30–$0.55) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.26/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 316 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $14 (overshoots $0.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $18.50: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $14.06 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.26 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.78 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.50, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-98,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$95,715 − CC assignment net of premium (192 × $14): -$85,355 + Conservative CC premium (8 × $21): +$8 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-88,232 (+$10,368 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,685 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-85,547, the opportunity cost of earning $9,600/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.98 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$37,056, position total $-79,176 (+$19,424 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 161 × $13.50 | 17 Jul | 3d | 9.2% | 83% | 21% | $1,449 | $14,490 | — | $78,979 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 161 × $13.50 9.2% OTM over spot $12.36 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.10 mid) = $1,449 credit for the 3d cycle → $14,490/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $13.60) 84% EV / mo +$1,063 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.1-3.9] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.2 mo) · 59% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 52% without) · ~12.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $36,410 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 21% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,343 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 161 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.42/sh now → $0.30 mid-life (likely $0.31–$0.54) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.21/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 622 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $14 (overshoots $0.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $5 below CC-SS $18.50: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $13.60 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.26 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.78 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.50, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-98,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$95,715 − CC assignment net of premium (161 × $13.50): -$78,979 + Conservative CC premium (39 × $21): +$39 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-81,826 (+$16,774 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,685 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-79,140, the opportunity cost of earning $14,490/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.98 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$38,479, position total $-80,568 (+$18,032 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 161 × $13 | 17 Jul | 3d | 5.2% | 71% | 59% | $2,898 | $28,980 | +$14,490 | $85,580 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 161 × $13 5.2% OTM over spot $12.36 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.18 mid) = $2,898 credit for the 3d cycle → $28,980/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13) 71% Breach risk 29% POP (stays ≤ $13.19) 76% EV / mo +$607 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.1-3.8] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.1 mo) · 63% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 49% without) · ~21.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $51,625 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 42% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,633 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 88% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 161 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.40/sh now → $0.28 mid-life (likely $0.34–$0.56) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.18/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,245 simulated challenges: the $13 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $13 (overshoots $0.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13 is $5 below CC-SS $18.50: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.18 collected) or spot ≥ $13.19 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.26 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.78 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.50, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-98,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$95,715 − CC assignment net of premium (161 × $13): -$85,580 + Conservative CC premium (39 × $21): +$39 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-88,427 (+$10,173 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,685 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-85,741, the opportunity cost of earning $28,980/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.98 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$45,080, position total $-87,169 (+$11,431 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 200 × $15 | 24 Jul | 10d | 21.4% | 90% | 20% | $2,000 | $6,000 | -$8,532 | $67,911 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 200 × $15 21.4% OTM over spot $12.36 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.12 mid) = $2,000 credit for the 10d cycle → $6,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $15.12) 91% EV / mo +$2,325 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.2 mo [1.3-4.5] median · 54% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 50% without) · ~2.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $21,239 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$11,304 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 71% POP 62% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.94/sh now → $0.67 mid-life (likely $0.58–$0.93) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.57/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 400 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $15 (overshoots $0.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $3 below CC-SS $18.50: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $15.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.26 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.78 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.50, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-98,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$95,715 − CC assignment net of premium (200 × $15): -$67,911 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-70,796 (+$27,804 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,685 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-68,111, the opportunity cost of earning $6,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.98 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$17,600, position total $-59,728 (+$38,872 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 160 × $14 | 24 Jul | 10d | 13.3% | 80% | 42% | $3,200 | $9,600 | -$4,932 | $68,729 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 160 × $14 13.3% OTM over spot $12.36 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.23 mid) = $3,200 credit for the 10d cycle → $9,600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $14.23) 83% EV / mo +$729 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.4 mo [1.3-4.8] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.2 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 52% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 44% without) · ~6.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $27,320 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,355 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 75% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 160 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.84/sh now → $0.60 mid-life (likely $0.60–$0.91) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.40/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 960 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $14 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $18.50: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $14.23 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.26 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.78 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.50, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-98,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$95,715 − CC assignment net of premium (160 × $14): -$68,729 + Conservative CC premium (40 × $21): +$40 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-71,574 (+$27,026 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,685 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-68,889, the opportunity cost of earning $9,600/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.98 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$28,480, position total $-70,568 (+$28,032 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 173 × $13.50 | 24 Jul | 10d | 9.2% | 73% | 44% | $4,844 | $14,532 | — | $81,579 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 173 × $13.50 9.2% OTM over spot $12.36 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.32 mid) = $4,844 credit for the 10d cycle → $14,532/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $13.82) 78% EV / mo +$88 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.5 mo [1.3-4.6] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.3 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 44% without) · ~8.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $35,750 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 44% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,922 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 80% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 173 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.80/sh now → $0.56 mid-life (likely $0.64–$0.91) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.28/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,308 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $14 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $5 below CC-SS $18.50: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.28 collected) or spot ≥ $13.82 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.26 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.78 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.50, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-98,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$95,715 − CC assignment net of premium (173 × $13.50): -$81,579 + Conservative CC premium (27 × $21): +$27 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-84,437 (+$14,163 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,685 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-81,752, the opportunity cost of earning $14,532/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.98 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$38,060, position total $-80,161 (+$18,439 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 170 × $12.50 | 24 Jul | 10d | 1.1% | 56% | 94% | $9,690 | $29,070 | +$14,538 | $92,234 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 170 × $12.50 1.1% OTM over spot $12.36 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.60 mid) = $9,690 credit for the 10d cycle → $29,070/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12.50) 56% Breach risk 44% POP (stays ≤ $13.11) 67% EV / mo $-1,443 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.1-4.1] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.1 mo) · 58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 48% without) · ~22.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $42,331 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 77% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$1,163 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 170 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.71/sh now → $0.50 mid-life (likely $0.70–$0.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.57/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.07/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,311 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 10, at $13 (overshoots $0.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12.50 is $6 below CC-SS $18.50: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.57 collected) or spot ≥ $13.11 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.26 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.78 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.50, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-98,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$95,715 − CC assignment net of premium (170 × $12.50): -$92,234 + Conservative CC premium (30 × $21): +$30 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-95,090 (+$3,510 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,685 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-92,404, the opportunity cost of earning $29,070/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.98 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$49,470, position total $-91,568 (+$7,032 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 9 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.780 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$95,715 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,685
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.09 | 161/200 | $14,490 | $14,607 | 83% | 84% | +$1,063 | -$78,979 | 1039.2% | $-81,826 (vs do-nothing $-79,140) |
| $13.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.28 | 173/200 | $14,532 | $14,613 | 73% | 78% | +$88 | -$81,579 | 1073.4% | $-84,437 (vs do-nothing $-81,752) |
| $13 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.18 | 81/200 | $14,580 | $14,937 | 71% | 76% | +$306 | -$43,056 | 566.5% | $-45,822 (vs do-nothing $-43,137) |
| $13.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.46 | 179/200 | $14,531 | $14,594 | 70% | 77% | +$942 | -$81,186 | 1068.2% | $-84,051 (vs do-nothing $-81,365) |
| $13 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.40 | 121/200 | $14,520 | $14,757 | 65% | 73% | $-241 | -$61,656 | 811.3% | $-64,463 (vs do-nothing $-61,777) |
| $13 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.61 | 135/200 | $14,532 | $14,727 | 64% | 73% | +$607 | -$65,955 | 867.8% | $-68,775 (vs do-nothing $-66,090) |
| $12.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.31 | 47/200 | $14,570 | $15,029 | 57% | 66% | $-1,560 | -$26,722 | 351.6% | $-29,455 (vs do-nothing $-26,769) |
| $12.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.82 | 101/200 | $14,615 | $14,912 | 56% | 68% | +$671 | -$52,273 | 687.8% | $-55,059 (vs do-nothing $-52,374) |
| $12.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.57 | 85/200 | $14,535 | $14,880 | 56% | 67% | $-722 | -$46,117 | 606.8% | $-48,888 (vs do-nothing $-46,202) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 200 contracts at the conservative CC.