200 contracts (20,000 sh) | BE SS: $22.69 | CC-SS: $17.93 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $207,600 | (ND $0.38 + SW $10) x 20000 |
| Normal income ref | $35,250/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $6,285/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-95,100 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 200 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 2d | 196 × $13.50 | 94% | $17,640 | $11,191 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 9d | 152 × $13 | 74% | $17,733 | $4,362 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 130 × $13.50 | 17 Jul | 2d | 13.2% | 94% | 11% | $780 | $11,700 | -$5,940 | $56,751 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 130 × $13.50 13.2% OTM over spot $11.93 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.07 mid) = $780 credit for the 2d cycle → $11,700/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $13.56) 95% EV / mo +$9,432 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.0-3.7] median · 57% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 48% without) · ~5.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $36,177 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,811 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 86% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 130 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.61/sh now → $0.43 mid-life (likely $0.42–$0.84) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.37/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 160 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $14 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $4 below CC-SS $17.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.06 collected) or spot ≥ $13.56 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.77 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-95,100 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$91,850 − CC assignment net of premium (130 × $13.50): -$56,751 + Conservative CC premium (70 × $22): +$140 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-59,861 (+$35,239 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,850 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-57,011, the opportunity cost of earning $11,700/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$30,680, position total $-64,513 (+$30,587 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 196 × $13.50 | 17 Jul | 2d | 13.2% | 94% | 5% | $1,176 | $17,640 | — | $85,562 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 196 × $13.50 13.2% OTM over spot $11.93 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.07 mid) = $1,176 credit for the 2d cycle → $17,640/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $13.56) 95% EV / mo +$14,221 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.4-3.7] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.5 mo) · 56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 44% without) · ~5.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $51,457 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$7,253 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 86% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 196 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.61/sh now → $0.43 mid-life (likely $0.46–$0.76) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.37/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 153 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $14 (overshoots $0.35). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $4 below CC-SS $17.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.06 collected) or spot ≥ $13.56 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.77 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-95,100 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$91,850 − CC assignment net of premium (196 × $13.50): -$85,562 + Conservative CC premium (4 × $22): +$8 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-88,804 (+$6,296 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,850 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-85,954, the opportunity cost of earning $17,640/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$46,256, position total $-80,221 (+$14,879 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 200 × $13.50 | 17 Jul | 2d | 13.2% | 94% | 11% | $1,200 | $18,000 | +$360 | $87,309 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 200 × $13.50 13.2% OTM over spot $11.93 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.07 mid) = $1,200 credit for the 2d cycle → $18,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $13.56) 95% EV / mo +$14,511 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.0-3.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.0 mo) · 55% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 47% without) · ~5.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $53,159 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 4% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$7,401 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 86% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.61/sh now → $0.43 mid-life (likely $0.44–$0.92) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.37/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 130 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $14 (overshoots $0.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $4 below CC-SS $17.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.06 collected) or spot ≥ $13.56 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.77 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-95,100 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$91,850 − CC assignment net of premium (200 × $13.50): -$87,309 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-90,559 (+$4,541 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,850 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-87,709, the opportunity cost of earning $18,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$47,200, position total $-81,173 (+$13,927 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 181 × $13 | 17 Jul | 2d | 9.0% | 87% | 26% | $2,353 | $35,295 | +$17,655 | $86,797 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 181 × $13 9.0% OTM over spot $11.93 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.14 mid) = $2,353 credit for the 2d cycle → $35,295/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $13.13) 90% EV / mo +$25,030 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.0-3.5] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.3 mo) · 76% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 50% without) · ~9.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $68,660 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,001 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 181 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.57/sh now → $0.41 mid-life (likely $0.44–$0.84) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 446 simulated challenges: the $13 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $13 (overshoots $0.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13 is $5 below CC-SS $17.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $13.13 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.77 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-95,100 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$91,850 − CC assignment net of premium (181 × $13): -$86,797 + Conservative CC premium (19 × $22): +$38 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-90,009 (+$5,091 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,850 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-87,159, the opportunity cost of earning $35,295/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$50,499, position total $-84,434 (+$10,666 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 200 × $14.50 | 24 Jul | 9d | 21.5% | 91% | 19% | $2,400 | $8,000 | -$9,733 | $66,109 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 200 × $14.50 21.5% OTM over spot $11.93 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.12 mid) = $2,400 credit for the 9d cycle → $8,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $14.62) 92% EV / mo +$4,343 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.2 mo [1.1-3.9] median · 55% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 48% without) · ~2.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $27,519 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$12,858 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 76% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.08/sh now → $0.76 mid-life (likely $0.64–$1.02) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.64/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 365 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $15 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $3 below CC-SS $17.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $14.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.77 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-95,100 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$91,850 − CC assignment net of premium (200 × $14.50): -$66,109 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-69,359 (+$25,741 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,850 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-66,509, the opportunity cost of earning $8,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$26,000, position total $-59,973 (+$35,127 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 140 × $13.50 | 24 Jul | 9d | 13.2% | 82% | 38% | $3,500 | $11,667 | -$6,067 | $58,456 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 140 × $13.50 13.2% OTM over spot $11.93 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.27 mid) = $3,500 credit for the 9d cycle → $11,667/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $13.77) 85% EV / mo +$5,008 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.4 mo [1.3-4.8] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.7 mo) · 52% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 46% without) · ~6.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $37,850 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 27% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,049 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 77% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 140 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.96/sh now → $0.68 mid-life (likely $0.69–$1.06) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.43/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 800 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $14 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $4 below CC-SS $17.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $13.77 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.77 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-95,100 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$91,850 − CC assignment net of premium (140 × $13.50): -$58,456 + Conservative CC premium (60 × $22): +$120 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-61,586 (+$33,514 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,850 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-58,736, the opportunity cost of earning $11,667/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$30,380, position total $-64,233 (+$30,867 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 152 × $13 | 24 Jul | 9d | 9.0% | 74% | 41% | $5,320 | $17,733 | — | $69,547 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 152 × $13 9.0% OTM over spot $11.93 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.39 mid) = $5,320 credit for the 9d cycle → $17,733/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13) 74% Breach risk 26% POP (stays ≤ $13.38) 80% EV / mo +$5,909 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.2 mo [1.3-4.2] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.1 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 55% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 44% without) · ~8.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $42,407 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 41% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,456 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 152 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.91/sh now → $0.64 mid-life (likely $0.75–$1.08) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,231 simulated challenges: the $13 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 9, at $13 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13 is $5 below CC-SS $17.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.35 collected) or spot ≥ $13.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.77 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-95,100 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$91,850 − CC assignment net of premium (152 × $13): -$69,547 + Conservative CC premium (48 × $22): +$96 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-72,701 (+$22,399 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,850 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-69,851, the opportunity cost of earning $17,733/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$39,064, position total $-72,941 (+$22,159 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 149 × $12 | 24 Jul | 9d | 0.6% | 55% | 97% | $10,579 | $35,263 | +$17,530 | $77,710 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 149 × $12 0.6% OTM over spot $11.93 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.73 mid) = $10,579 credit for the 9d cycle → $35,263/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12) 55% Breach risk 45% POP (stays ≤ $12.73) 70% EV / mo +$7,095 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.1-4.4] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.1 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 49% without) · ~25.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $49,640 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 77% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$2,107 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 92% POP 92% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 149 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.80/sh now → $0.57 mid-life (likely $0.80–$1.14) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.71/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.14/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,302 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 9, at $12 (overshoots $0.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12 is $6 below CC-SS $17.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.18/sh (~25% of the $0.71 collected) or spot ≥ $12.73 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.77 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-95,100 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$91,850 − CC assignment net of premium (149 × $12): -$77,710 + Conservative CC premium (51 × $22): +$102 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-80,858 (+$14,242 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,850 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-78,008, the opportunity cost of earning $35,263/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$47,829, position total $-81,700 (+$13,400 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 10 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.766 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$91,850 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,850
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13.50 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.06 | 196/200 | $17,640 | $17,655 | 94% | 95% | +$14,221 | -$85,562 | 1125.8% | $-88,804 (vs do-nothing $-85,954) |
| $13 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.13 | 91/200 | $17,745 | $18,154 | 87% | 90% | +$12,584 | -$43,638 | 574.2% | $-46,670 (vs do-nothing $-43,820) |
| $13 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.35 | 152/200 | $17,733 | $17,913 | 74% | 80% | +$5,909 | -$69,547 | 915.1% | $-72,701 (vs do-nothing $-69,851) |
| $12.50 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.25 | 47/200 | $17,625 | $18,199 | 74% | 82% | +$9,701 | -$24,325 | 320.1% | $-27,269 (vs do-nothing $-24,419) |
| $13 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.54 | 175/200 | $17,719 | $17,813 | 71% | 78% | +$4,962 | -$76,745 | 1009.8% | $-79,945 (vs do-nothing $-77,095) |
| $12.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.52 | 102/200 | $17,680 | $18,048 | 65% | 75% | +$5,072 | -$50,035 | 658.4% | $-53,089 (vs do-nothing $-50,239) |
| $12.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.71 | 133/200 | $17,706 | $17,957 | 63% | 74% | +$4,127 | -$62,715 | 825.2% | $-65,831 (vs do-nothing $-62,981) |
| $12 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.94 | 100/200 | $17,625 | $18,000 | 55% | 70% | +$3,582 | -$49,854 | 656.0% | $-52,904 (vs do-nothing $-50,054) |
| $12 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.44 | 27/200 | $17,820 | $18,469 | 55% | 72% | +$6,555 | -$14,811 | 194.9% | $-17,715 (vs do-nothing $-14,865) |
| $12 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.71 | 75/200 | $17,750 | $18,219 | 55% | 70% | +$3,571 | -$39,116 | 514.7% | $-42,116 (vs do-nothing $-39,266) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 200 contracts at the conservative CC.