200 contracts (20,000 sh) | BE SS: $22.69 | CC-SS: $18.16 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $207,600 | (ND $0.38 + SW $10) x 20000 |
| Normal income ref | $30,382/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $7,442/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-95,600 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 200 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 2d | 113 × $13.50 | 94% | $15,255 | $10,619 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 9d | 152 × $13.50 | 78% | $15,200 | $2,985 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 168 × $14 | 17 Jul | 2d | 14.9% | 98% | 4% | $672 | $10,080 | -$5,175 | $69,258 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 168 × $14 14.9% OTM over spot $12.18 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.04 mid) = $672 credit for the 2d cycle → $10,080/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $14.04) 98% EV / mo +$9,586 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.2-4.8] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.1 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 52% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 47% without) · ~1.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $16,553 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 2% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,775 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $15 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 168 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.63/sh now → $0.44 mid-life (likely $0.43–$0.76) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.40/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 60 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $14 (overshoots $0.34). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $18.16: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.04 collected) or spot ≥ $14.04 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.30 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.77 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.16, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-95,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$92,014 − CC assignment net of premium (168 × $14): -$69,258 + Conservative CC premium (32 × $18.50): +$32 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-72,812 (+$22,788 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,386 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-69,426, the opportunity cost of earning $10,080/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.94 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$31,920, position total $-69,656 (+$25,944 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 113 × $13.50 | 17 Jul | 2d | 10.8% | 94% | 7% | $1,017 | $15,255 | — | $51,669 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 113 × $13.50 10.8% OTM over spot $12.18 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.10 mid) = $1,017 credit for the 2d cycle → $15,255/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $13.60) 95% EV / mo +$13,393 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.0 mo [1.5-4.9] median · 49% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 42% without) · ~6.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $35,672 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,713 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $15 @ 81% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 113 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.59/sh now → $0.42 mid-life (likely $0.43–$0.72) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.33/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 196 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $14 (overshoots $0.30). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $5 below CC-SS $18.16: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $13.60 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.30 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.77 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.16, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-95,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$92,014 − CC assignment net of premium (113 × $13.50): -$51,669 + Conservative CC premium (87 × $18.50): +$87 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-55,168 (+$40,432 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,386 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-51,782, the opportunity cost of earning $15,255/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.94 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$26,555, position total $-64,236 (+$31,364 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 200 × $13.50 | 17 Jul | 2d | 10.8% | 94% | 12% | $1,800 | $27,000 | +$11,745 | $91,450 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 200 × $13.50 10.8% OTM over spot $12.18 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.10 mid) = $1,800 credit for the 2d cycle → $27,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $13.60) 95% EV / mo +$23,704 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.2-4.0] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.2 mo) · 55% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 42% without) · ~5.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $55,648 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,572 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $15 @ 81% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.59/sh now → $0.42 mid-life (likely $0.42–$0.88) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.33/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 179 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $14 (overshoots $0.34). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $5 below CC-SS $18.16: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $13.60 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.30 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.77 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.16, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-95,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$92,014 − CC assignment net of premium (200 × $13.50): -$91,450 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-95,036 (+$564 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,386 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-91,650, the opportunity cost of earning $27,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.94 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$47,000, position total $-84,768 (+$10,832 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 107 × $13 | 17 Jul | 2d | 6.7% | 84% | 33% | $2,033 | $30,495 | +$15,240 | $53,206 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 107 × $13 6.7% OTM over spot $12.18 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.20 mid) = $2,033 credit for the 2d cycle → $30,495/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $13.20) 89% EV / mo +$22,963 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.3-4.5] median, 0.3 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.1 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 41% without) · ~15.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $73,317 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 18% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,189 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 88% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 107 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.56/sh now → $0.39 mid-life (likely $0.44–$0.80) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.20/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 537 simulated challenges: the $13 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $13 (overshoots $0.33). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13 is $5 below CC-SS $18.16: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.19 collected) or spot ≥ $13.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.30 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.77 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.16, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-95,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$92,014 − CC assignment net of premium (107 × $13): -$53,206 + Conservative CC premium (93 × $18.50): +$93 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-56,699 (+$38,901 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,386 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-53,313, the opportunity cost of earning $30,495/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.94 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$29,425, position total $-67,100 (+$28,500 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 200 × $15 | 24 Jul | 9d | 23.2% | 92% | 16% | $1,200 | $4,000 | -$11,200 | $62,050 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 200 × $15 23.2% OTM over spot $12.18 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.11 mid) = $1,200 credit for the 9d cycle → $4,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $15.11) 93% EV / mo +$1,014 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.1-4.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.1 mo) · 52% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 50% without) · ~2.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $14,577 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$15,175 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 74% POP 65% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.16/sh now → $0.82 mid-life (likely $0.61–$1.08) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.76/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 291 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 9, at $15 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $3 below CC-SS $18.16: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.06 collected) or spot ≥ $15.11 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.30 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.77 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.16, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-95,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$92,014 − CC assignment net of premium (200 × $15): -$62,050 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-65,636 (+$29,964 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,386 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-62,250, the opportunity cost of earning $4,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.94 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$17,600, position total $-55,368 (+$40,232 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 137 × $14 | 24 Jul | 9d | 14.9% | 84% | 33% | $3,014 | $10,047 | -$5,153 | $54,012 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 137 × $14 14.9% OTM over spot $12.18 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.23 mid) = $3,014 credit for the 9d cycle → $10,047/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $14.22) 87% EV / mo +$4,823 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.2 mo [1.1-4.7] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.3 mo) · 54% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 46% without) · ~4.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $32,468 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$7,044 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 74% POP 66% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 137 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.04/sh now → $0.73 mid-life (likely $0.68–$1.11) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 705 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $14 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $18.16: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.22 collected) or spot ≥ $14.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.30 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.77 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.16, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-95,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$92,014 − CC assignment net of premium (137 × $14): -$54,012 + Conservative CC premium (63 × $18.50): +$63 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-57,535 (+$38,065 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,386 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-54,149, the opportunity cost of earning $10,047/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.94 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$23,564, position total $-61,269 (+$34,331 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 152 × $13.50 | 24 Jul | 9d | 10.8% | 78% | 35% | $4,560 | $15,200 | — | $66,310 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 152 × $13.50 10.8% OTM over spot $12.18 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.32 mid) = $4,560 credit for the 9d cycle → $15,200/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $13.82) 82% EV / mo +$5,830 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.5 mo [1.3-4.3] median · 58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 48% without) · ~7.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $37,916 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 35% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,980 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $14 @ 75% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 152 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.98/sh now → $0.69 mid-life (likely $0.73–$1.10) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.39/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,043 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $14 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $5 below CC-SS $18.16: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.30 collected) or spot ≥ $13.82 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.30 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.77 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.16, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-95,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$92,014 − CC assignment net of premium (152 × $13.50): -$66,310 + Conservative CC premium (48 × $18.50): +$48 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-69,848 (+$25,752 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,386 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-66,462, the opportunity cost of earning $15,200/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.94 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$32,528, position total $-70,248 (+$25,352 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 152 × $12.50 | 24 Jul | 9d | 2.6% | 60% | 85% | $9,120 | $30,400 | +$15,200 | $76,950 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 152 × $12.50 2.6% OTM over spot $12.18 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.67 mid) = $9,120 credit for the 9d cycle → $30,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12.50) 60% Breach risk 40% POP (stays ≤ $13.16) 73% EV / mo +$7,050 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.2 mo [1.2-4.4] median · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 47% without) · ~18.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $46,456 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 69% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$232 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 152 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.87/sh now → $0.62 mid-life (likely $0.83–$1.16) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,083 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $13 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12.50 is $6 below CC-SS $18.16: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.60 collected) or spot ≥ $13.16 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.30 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.77 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.16, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-95,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$92,014 − CC assignment net of premium (152 × $12.50): -$76,950 + Conservative CC premium (48 × $18.50): +$48 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-80,488 (+$15,112 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,386 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-77,102, the opportunity cost of earning $30,400/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.94 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$43,168, position total $-80,888 (+$14,712 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 11 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.769 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$92,014 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,386
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13.50 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.09 | 113/200 | $15,255 | $15,418 | 94% | 95% | +$13,393 | -$51,669 | 679.9% | $-55,168 (vs do-nothing $-51,782) |
| $13 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.19 | 54/200 | $15,390 | $15,664 | 84% | 89% | +$11,589 | -$26,851 | 353.3% | $-30,292 (vs do-nothing $-26,905) |
| $13.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.30 | 152/200 | $15,200 | $15,290 | 78% | 82% | +$5,830 | -$66,310 | 872.5% | $-69,848 (vs do-nothing $-66,462) |
| $13 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.43 | 106/200 | $15,193 | $15,370 | 70% | 78% | +$4,742 | -$50,164 | 660.1% | $-53,657 (vs do-nothing $-50,270) |
| $13 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.61 | 133/200 | $15,212 | $15,338 | 67% | 76% | +$3,744 | -$60,548 | 796.7% | $-64,067 (vs do-nothing $-60,681) |
| $12.50 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.36 | 29/200 | $15,660 | $15,981 | 66% | 80% | +$9,045 | -$15,377 | 202.3% | $-18,792 (vs do-nothing $-15,406) |
| $12.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.60 | 76/200 | $15,200 | $15,432 | 60% | 73% | +$3,525 | -$38,475 | 506.2% | $-41,937 (vs do-nothing $-38,551) |
| $12.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.74 | 110/200 | $15,262 | $15,431 | 59% | 72% | +$2,065 | -$54,147 | 712.5% | $-57,644 (vs do-nothing $-54,257) |
| $12 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.99 | 82/200 | $15,221 | $15,442 | 51% | 68% | +$1,816 | -$42,414 | 558.1% | $-45,883 (vs do-nothing $-42,496) |
| $12 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.92 | 50/200 | $15,333 | $15,615 | 49% | 69% | +$3,821 | -$26,212 | 344.9% | $-29,649 (vs do-nothing $-26,262) |
| $12 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.63 | 17/200 | $16,065 | $16,408 | 43% | 72% | +$6,445 | -$9,405 | 123.8% | $-12,808 (vs do-nothing $-9,422) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 200 contracts at the conservative CC.