200 contracts (20,000 sh) | BE SS: $22.69 | CC-SS: $17.82 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $207,600 | (ND $0.38 + SW $10) x 20000 |
| Normal income ref | $30,800/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $6,893/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-89,600 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 200 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 8d | 172 × $13.50 | 80% | $15,480 | $3,522 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 200 × $14.50 | 24 Jul | 8d | 18.8% | 91% | 20% | $2,000 | $7,500 | -$7,980 | $64,485 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 200 × $14.50 18.8% OTM over spot $12.21 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.11 mid) = $2,000 credit for the 8d cycle → $7,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $14.61) 91% EV / mo +$3,767 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.2-4.4] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.1 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 49% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 42% without) · ~3.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $28,109 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$11,099 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 74% POP 66% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.93/sh now → $0.65 mid-life (likely $0.51–$0.91) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 388 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $15 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $3 below CC-SS $17.82: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $14.61 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.78 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.82, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-89,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$87,021 − CC assignment net of premium (200 × $14.50): -$64,485 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-67,064 (+$22,536 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,179 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-64,885, the opportunity cost of earning $7,500/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.93 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$26,600, position total $-58,540 (+$31,060 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 170 × $14 | 24 Jul | 8d | 14.7% | 86% | 29% | $2,720 | $10,200 | -$5,280 | $62,292 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 170 × $14 14.7% OTM over spot $12.21 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.17 mid) = $2,720 credit for the 8d cycle → $10,200/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $14.17) 88% EV / mo +$4,677 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.5 mo [1.1-4.2] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.8 mo) · 57% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 52% without) · ~4.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $32,545 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$7,811 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 75% POP 66% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 170 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.88/sh now → $0.62 mid-life (likely $0.57–$0.92) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 676 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $14 (overshoots $0.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $17.82: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.16 collected) or spot ≥ $14.17 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.78 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.82, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-89,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$87,021 − CC assignment net of premium (170 × $14): -$62,292 + Conservative CC premium (30 × $22): +$60 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-64,811 (+$24,789 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,179 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-62,632, the opportunity cost of earning $10,200/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.93 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$30,090, position total $-61,970 (+$27,630 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 172 × $13.50 | 24 Jul | 8d | 10.6% | 80% | 32% | $4,128 | $15,480 | — | $70,249 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 172 × $13.50 10.6% OTM over spot $12.21 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.26 mid) = $4,128 credit for the 8d cycle → $15,480/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $13.76) 84% EV / mo +$6,396 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.3-4.0] median · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 50% without) · ~6.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $38,179 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,931 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 172 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.83/sh now → $0.58 mid-life (likely $0.61–$0.95) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.24/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.34/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 951 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $14 (overshoots $0.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $4 below CC-SS $17.82: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.24 collected) or spot ≥ $13.76 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.78 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.82, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-89,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$87,021 − CC assignment net of premium (172 × $13.50): -$70,249 + Conservative CC premium (28 × $22): +$56 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-72,772 (+$16,828 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,179 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-70,593, the opportunity cost of earning $15,480/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.93 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$37,668, position total $-69,552 (+$20,048 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 153 × $12.50 | 24 Jul | 8d | 2.4% | 60% | 85% | $8,262 | $30,983 | +$15,503 | $73,199 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 153 × $12.50 2.4% OTM over spot $12.21 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.56 mid) = $8,262 credit for the 8d cycle → $30,983/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12.50) 60% Breach risk 40% POP (stays ≤ $13.06) 72% EV / mo +$7,303 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.2 mo [1.3-4.1] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.2 mo) · 58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 47% without) · ~20.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $52,413 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 68% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$330 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 153 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.73/sh now → $0.52 mid-life (likely $0.70–$1.00) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.54/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,029 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $13 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12.50 is $5 below CC-SS $17.82: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.54 collected) or spot ≥ $13.06 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.78 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.82, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-89,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$87,021 − CC assignment net of premium (153 × $12.50): -$73,199 + Conservative CC premium (47 × $22): +$94 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-75,684 (+$13,916 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,179 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-73,505, the opportunity cost of earning $30,983/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.93 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$44,217, position total $-76,063 (+$13,537 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (2 expiries scanned, 7 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.775 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$87,021 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,179
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.24 | 172/200 | $15,480 | $15,592 | 80% | 84% | +$6,396 | -$70,249 | 924.3% | $-72,772 (vs do-nothing $-70,593) |
| $13 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.37 | 111/200 | $15,401 | $15,757 | 71% | 78% | +$5,065 | -$49,442 | 650.6% | $-51,843 (vs do-nothing $-49,664) |
| $13 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.57 | 136/200 | $15,504 | $15,760 | 67% | 76% | +$3,984 | -$57,858 | 761.3% | $-60,309 (vs do-nothing $-58,130) |
| $12.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.54 | 77/200 | $15,593 | $16,085 | 60% | 72% | +$3,675 | -$36,839 | 484.7% | $-39,172 (vs do-nothing $-36,993) |
| $12.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.74 | 105/200 | $15,540 | $15,920 | 59% | 72% | +$2,846 | -$48,135 | 633.4% | $-50,524 (vs do-nothing $-48,345) |
| $12 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.98 | 79/200 | $15,484 | $15,968 | 50% | 67% | +$2,191 | -$38,270 | 503.5% | $-40,607 (vs do-nothing $-38,428) |
| $12 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.77 | 54/200 | $15,592 | $16,176 | 48% | 66% | +$2,190 | -$27,293 | 359.1% | $-29,580 (vs do-nothing $-27,401) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 200 contracts at the conservative CC.