200 contracts (20,000 sh) | BE SS: $22.69 | CC-SS: $18.53 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $207,600 | (ND $0.38 + SW $10) x 20000 |
| Normal income ref | $37,600/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $6,679/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-98,600 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 200 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 8d | 193 × $13.50 | 82% | $18,818 | $4,408 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 200 × $14.50 | 24 Jul | 8d | 19.9% | 92% | 17% | $2,400 | $9,000 | -$9,818 | $78,272 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 200 × $14.50 19.9% OTM over spot $12.09 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.13 mid) = $2,400 credit for the 8d cycle → $9,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $14.63) 93% EV / mo +$6,027 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.1-4.4] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.0 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 49% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 42% without) · ~2.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $36,151 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$12,781 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $16 @ 77% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.07/sh now → $0.76 mid-life (likely $0.55–$1.08) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.64/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 325 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $15 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $4 below CC-SS $18.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $14.63 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-98,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$115,985 − CC assignment net of premium (200 × $14.50): -$78,272 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-60,887 (+$37,713 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $17,785 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-78,672, the opportunity cost of earning $9,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.95 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$26,600, position total $-55,720 (+$42,880 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 128 × $13.50 | 24 Jul | 8d | 11.7% | 82% | 38% | $3,328 | $12,480 | -$6,338 | $61,102 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 128 × $13.50 11.7% OTM over spot $12.09 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.28 mid) = $3,328 credit for the 8d cycle → $12,480/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $13.78) 85% EV / mo +$6,508 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.2-4.0] median · 55% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 47% without) · ~6.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $37,807 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 29% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,340 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $16 @ 84% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 128 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.96/sh now → $0.68 mid-life (likely $0.68–$1.06) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 864 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $14 (overshoots $0.35). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $5 below CC-SS $18.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.26 collected) or spot ≥ $13.78 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-98,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$115,985 − CC assignment net of premium (128 × $13.50): -$61,102 + Conservative CC premium (72 × $22): +$144 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-43,573 (+$55,027 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $17,785 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-61,358, the opportunity cost of earning $12,480/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.95 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$28,032, position total $-57,008 (+$41,592 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 193 × $13.50 | 24 Jul | 8d | 11.7% | 82% | 29% | $5,018 | $18,818 | — | $92,131 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 193 × $13.50 11.7% OTM over spot $12.09 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.28 mid) = $5,018 credit for the 8d cycle → $18,818/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $13.78) 85% EV / mo +$9,812 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.2 mo [1.3-4.9] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.1 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 63% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 48% without) · ~6.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $50,789 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 29% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$8,052 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $16 @ 84% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 193 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.96/sh now → $0.68 mid-life (likely $0.67–$1.05) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 882 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $14 (overshoots $0.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $5 below CC-SS $18.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.26 collected) or spot ≥ $13.78 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-98,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$115,985 − CC assignment net of premium (193 × $13.50): -$92,131 + Conservative CC premium (7 × $22): +$14 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-74,732 (+$23,868 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $17,785 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-92,517, the opportunity cost of earning $18,818/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.95 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$42,267, position total $-71,373 (+$27,227 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 170 × $12.50 | 24 Jul | 8d | 3.4% | 63% | 79% | $10,030 | $37,612 | +$18,795 | $92,542 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 170 × $12.50 3.4% OTM over spot $12.09 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.59 mid) = $10,030 credit for the 8d cycle → $37,612/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12.50) 63% Breach risk 37% POP (stays ≤ $13.10) 75% EV / mo +$14,322 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.5 mo [1.3-4.8] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.6 mo) · 65% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 45% without) · ~16.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $64,147 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 63% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$165 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $16 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 170 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.85/sh now → $0.60 mid-life (likely $0.78–$1.12) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.59/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.01/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,890 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $13 (overshoots $0.36). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12.50 is $6 below CC-SS $18.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.59 collected) or spot ≥ $13.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-98,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$115,985 − CC assignment net of premium (170 × $12.50): -$92,542 + Conservative CC premium (30 × $22): +$60 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-75,096 (+$23,504 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $17,785 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-92,882, the opportunity cost of earning $37,612/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.95 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$48,620, position total $-77,680 (+$20,920 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 10 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$115,985 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $17,785
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.26 | 193/200 | $18,818 | $18,846 | 82% | 85% | +$9,812 | -$92,131 | 1212.2% | $-74,732 (vs do-nothing $-92,517) |
| $13 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.40 | 126/200 | $18,900 | $19,196 | 73% | 80% | +$8,532 | -$64,684 | 851.1% | $-47,150 (vs do-nothing $-64,936) |
| $13 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.61 | 155/200 | $18,910 | $19,090 | 69% | 78% | +$6,605 | -$76,316 | 1004.2% | $-58,841 (vs do-nothing $-76,626) |
| $13 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.85 | 163/200 | $18,893 | $19,041 | 67% | 76% | +$5,883 | -$76,343 | 1004.5% | $-58,884 (vs do-nothing $-76,669) |
| $12.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.59 | 85/200 | $18,806 | $19,266 | 63% | 75% | +$7,161 | -$46,271 | 608.8% | $-28,656 (vs do-nothing $-46,441) |
| $12.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.80 | 118/200 | $18,880 | $19,208 | 61% | 74% | +$5,738 | -$61,757 | 812.6% | $-44,208 (vs do-nothing $-61,993) |
| $12.50 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.05 | 132/200 | $18,900 | $19,172 | 60% | 74% | +$5,236 | -$65,784 | 865.6% | $-48,263 (vs do-nothing $-66,048) |
| $12 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.28 | 108/200 | $18,851 | $19,219 | 53% | 71% | +$4,502 | -$56,739 | 746.6% | $-39,170 (vs do-nothing $-56,955) |
| $12 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.03 | 92/200 | $18,952 | $19,384 | 52% | 70% | +$4,518 | -$50,633 | 666.2% | $-33,032 (vs do-nothing $-50,817) |
| $12 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.82 | 62/200 | $19,065 | $19,617 | 50% | 70% | +$5,486 | -$35,424 | 466.1% | $-17,763 (vs do-nothing $-35,548) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 200 contracts at the conservative CC.