200 contracts (20,000 sh) | BE SS: $22.69 | CC-SS: $18.12 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $207,600 | (ND $0.38 + SW $10) x 20000 |
| Normal income ref | $34,286/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $5,255/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-105,100 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 200 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 7d | 154 × $12.50 | 76% | $17,160 | $4,861 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 200 × $13.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | 17.5% | 91% | 20% | +10pp | $2,000 | $8,571 | -$8,589 | $90,454 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 200 × $13.50 17.5% OTM over spot $11.48 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.11 mid) = $2,000 credit for the 7d cycle → $8,571/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $13.61) 92% EV / mo +$4,884 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 47% whole by 9mo vs 37% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $5,205/mo median; plan ~$3,539/mo after 68% keep · $34,933 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.0 mo [1.8-5.0], measured ONLY among the 47% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$9,588 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $17 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.82/sh now → $0.58 mid-life (likely $0.49–$0.85) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 410 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $14 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $5 below CC-SS $18.12: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $13.61 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.25 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.75 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.12, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-105,100 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$99,964 − CC assignment net of premium (200 × $13.50): -$90,454 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-95,590 (+$9,510 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,936 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-90,654, the opportunity cost of earning $8,571/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.89 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$45,800, position total $-84,561 (+$20,539 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 166 × $13 | 24 Jul | 7d | 13.2% | 85% | 31% | +8pp | $2,656 | $11,383 | -$5,777 | $82,381 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 166 × $13 13.2% OTM over spot $11.48 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.17 mid) = $2,656 credit for the 7d cycle → $11,383/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $13.16) 87% EV / mo +$5,612 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 48% whole by 9mo vs 41% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $6,205/mo median; plan ~$4,219/mo after 68% keep · $38,472 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.5 mo [1.6-4.5], measured ONLY among the 48% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,410 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $17 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 166 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.77/sh now → $0.55 mid-life (likely $0.51–$0.83) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.39/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 704 simulated challenges: the $13 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $13 (overshoots $0.36). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13 is $5 below CC-SS $18.12: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.16 collected) or spot ≥ $13.16 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.25 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.75 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.12, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-105,100 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$99,964 − CC assignment net of premium (166 × $13): -$82,381 + Conservative CC premium (34 × $22): +$34 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-87,483 (+$17,617 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,936 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-82,547, the opportunity cost of earning $11,383/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.89 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$45,318, position total $-84,045 (+$21,055 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 154 × $12.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | 8.8% | 76% | 36% | +10pp | $4,004 | $17,160 | — | $82,586 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 154 × $12.50 8.8% OTM over spot $11.48 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.27 mid) = $4,004 credit for the 7d cycle → $17,160/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12.50) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $12.77) 81% EV / mo +$5,923 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 56% whole by 9mo vs 45% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $7,421/mo median; plan ~$5,047/mo after 68% keep · $45,145 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.0 mo [1.7-4.7], measured ONLY among the 56% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 36% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,909 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $17 @ 89% POP 88% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 154 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.73/sh now → $0.51 mid-life (likely $0.57–$0.88) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.25/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,088 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $13 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12.50 is $6 below CC-SS $18.12: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.26 collected) or spot ≥ $12.77 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.25 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.75 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.12, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-105,100 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$99,964 − CC assignment net of premium (154 × $12.50): -$82,586 + Conservative CC premium (46 × $22): +$46 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-87,676 (+$17,424 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,936 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-82,740, the opportunity cost of earning $17,160/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.89 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$48,202, position total $-86,917 (+$18,183 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 200 × $12 | 24 Jul | 7d | 4.5% | 66% | 72% | +18pp | $8,000 | $34,286 | +$17,126 | $114,454 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 200 × $12 4.5% OTM over spot $11.48 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.42 mid) = $8,000 credit for the 7d cycle → $34,286/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12) 66% Breach risk 34% POP (stays ≤ $12.41) 75% EV / mo +$8,398 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +18pp 55% whole by 9mo vs 38% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $10,733/mo median; plan ~$7,298/mo after 68% keep · $67,049 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.7 mo [1.6-4.8], measured ONLY among the 55% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 56% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,648 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $16 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.68/sh now → $0.48 mid-life (likely $0.61–$0.87) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.08/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,672 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $12 (overshoots $0.35). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12 is $6 below CC-SS $18.12: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.40 collected) or spot ≥ $12.41 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.25 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.75 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.12, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-105,100 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$99,964 − CC assignment net of premium (200 × $12): -$114,454 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-119,590 ($-14,490 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,936 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-114,654, the opportunity cost of earning $34,286/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.89 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$69,800, position total $-108,561 ($-3,461 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 12 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.753 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$99,964 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-4,936
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $12.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.26 | 154/200 | $17,160 | $17,259 | 76% | 81% | +$5,923 | -$82,586 | 1086.7% | $-87,676 (vs do-nothing $-82,740) |
| $12.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.45 | 178/200 | $17,164 | $17,211 | 71% | 78% | +$4,832 | -$92,074 | 1211.5% | $-97,188 (vs do-nothing $-92,252) |
| $12.50 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.69 | 174/200 | $17,151 | $17,207 | 69% | 77% | +$4,690 | -$85,829 | 1129.3% | $-90,939 (vs do-nothing $-86,003) |
| $12.50 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.83 | 193/200 | $17,163 | $17,178 | 67% | 76% | +$3,906 | -$92,499 | 1217.1% | $-97,628 (vs do-nothing $-92,692) |
| $12 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.40 | 100/200 | $17,143 | $17,357 | 66% | 75% | +$4,199 | -$57,227 | 753.0% | $-62,263 (vs do-nothing $-57,327) |
| $12 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.61 | 132/200 | $17,254 | $17,400 | 63% | 74% | +$3,751 | -$72,768 | 957.5% | $-77,836 (vs do-nothing $-72,900) |
| $12 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.78 | 154/200 | $17,160 | $17,259 | 62% | 73% | +$2,525 | -$82,278 | 1082.6% | $-87,368 (vs do-nothing $-82,432) |
| $12 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.02 | 157/200 | $17,158 | $17,250 | 62% | 73% | +$3,470 | -$80,113 | 1054.1% | $-85,206 (vs do-nothing $-80,270) |
| $11.50 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.17 | 137/200 | $17,174 | $17,309 | 55% | 70% | +$2,170 | -$74,702 | 982.9% | $-79,775 (vs do-nothing $-74,839) |
| $11.50 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.00 | 121/200 | $17,286 | $17,455 | 55% | 70% | +$2,219 | -$68,035 | 895.2% | $-73,092 (vs do-nothing $-68,156) |
| $11.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.80 | 100/200 | $17,143 | $17,357 | 54% | 69% | +$2,415 | -$58,227 | 766.1% | $-63,263 (vs do-nothing $-58,327) |
| $11.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.61 | 66/200 | $17,254 | $17,541 | 53% | 68% | +$3,084 | -$39,684 | 522.2% | $-44,686 (vs do-nothing $-39,750) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 200 contracts at the conservative CC.