200 contracts (20,000 sh) | BE SS: $22.69 | CC-SS: $18.34 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $207,600 | (ND $0.38 + SW $10) x 20000 |
| Normal income ref | $34,909/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $5,867/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-105,100 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 200 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 4d | 111 × $12.50 | 74% | $17,482 | $4,707 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 31 Jul 2026 · 11d | 200 × $13 | 76% | $17,455 | $1,510 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 200 × $13.50 | 24 Jul | 4d | 15.2% | 91% | 18% | +8pp | $1,200 | $9,000 | -$8,483 | $95,588 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 200 × $13.50 15.2% OTM over spot $11.72 24 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.07 mid) = $1,200 credit for the 4d cycle → $9,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $13.56) 92% EV / mo +$4,165 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 51% whole by 9mo vs 43% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $5,646/mo median; plan ~$3,840/mo after 68% keep · $30,706 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.4 mo [1.3-4.2], measured ONLY among the 51% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$7,698 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $17 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.63/sh now → $0.44 mid-life (likely $0.39–$0.75) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.38/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 351 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $14 (overshoots $0.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $5 below CC-SS $18.34: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.06 collected) or spot ≥ $13.56 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.97 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.76 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.34, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-105,100 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$100,085 − CC assignment net of premium (200 × $13.50): -$95,588 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-100,603 (+$4,497 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,815 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-95,788, the opportunity cost of earning $9,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.73 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$43,400, position total $-87,869 (+$17,231 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 140 × $13 | 24 Jul | 4d | 10.9% | 84% | 32% | +7pp | $1,540 | $11,550 | -$5,932 | $73,211 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 140 × $13 10.9% OTM over spot $11.72 24 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.12 mid) = $1,540 credit for the 4d cycle → $11,550/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $13.12) 86% EV / mo +$3,569 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 48% whole by 9mo vs 41% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $5,953/mo median; plan ~$4,048/mo after 68% keep · $34,443 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.5 mo [1.2-4.5], measured ONLY among the 48% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,346 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $16 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 140 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.59/sh now → $0.42 mid-life (likely $0.43–$0.73) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.31/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 672 simulated challenges: the $13 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $13 (overshoots $0.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13 is $5 below CC-SS $18.34: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $13.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.97 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.76 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.34, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-105,100 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$100,085 − CC assignment net of premium (140 × $13): -$73,211 + Conservative CC premium (60 × $22): +$60 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-78,166 (+$26,934 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,815 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-73,351, the opportunity cost of earning $11,550/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.73 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$36,680, position total $-81,089 (+$24,011 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 111 × $12.50 | 24 Jul | 4d | 6.7% | 74% | 39% | +8pp | $2,331 | $17,482 | — | $62,486 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 111 × $12.50 6.7% OTM over spot $11.72 24 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.22 mid) = $2,331 credit for the 4d cycle → $17,482/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12.50) 74% Breach risk 26% POP (stays ≤ $12.72) 79% EV / mo +$3,964 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 50% whole by 9mo vs 42% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $6,927/mo median; plan ~$4,710/mo after 68% keep · $43,911 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.5 mo [1.3-4.5], measured ONLY among the 50% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 39% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,071 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $17 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 111 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.56/sh now → $0.40 mid-life (likely $0.46–$0.75) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.21/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.19/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,161 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $13 (overshoots $0.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12.50 is $6 below CC-SS $18.34: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.21 collected) or spot ≥ $12.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.97 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.76 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.34, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-105,100 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$100,085 − CC assignment net of premium (111 × $12.50): -$62,486 + Conservative CC premium (89 × $22): +$89 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-67,412 (+$37,688 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,815 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-62,597, the opportunity cost of earning $17,482/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.73 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$33,522, position total $-77,902 (+$27,198 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 126 × $12 | 24 Jul | 4d | 2.4% | 61% | 82% | +14pp | $4,662 | $34,965 | +$17,482 | $75,214 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 126 × $12 2.4% OTM over spot $11.72 24 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.38 mid) = $4,662 credit for the 4d cycle → $34,965/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12) 61% Breach risk 39% POP (stays ≤ $12.38) 71% EV / mo +$4,710 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +14pp 57% whole by 9mo vs 43% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~10.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $10,023/mo median; plan ~$6,816/mo after 68% keep · $58,390 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.2 mo [1.2-4.2], measured ONLY among the 57% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 59% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$41 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $15 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 126 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.53/sh now → $0.37 mid-life (likely $0.49–$0.81) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.37/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.00/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,781 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $12 (overshoots $0.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12 is $6 below CC-SS $18.34: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.37 collected) or spot ≥ $12.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.97 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.76 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.34, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-105,100 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$100,085 − CC assignment net of premium (126 × $12): -$75,214 + Conservative CC premium (74 × $22): +$74 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-80,155 (+$24,945 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,815 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-75,340, the opportunity cost of earning $34,965/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.73 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$42,336, position total $-86,731 (+$18,369 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield ← lean | 200 × $14.50 | 31 Jul | 11d | 23.7% | 91% | 19% | +4pp | $2,000 | $5,455 | -$12,000 | $74,788 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 200 × $14.50 23.7% OTM over spot $11.72 31 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.12 mid) = $2,000 credit for the 11d cycle → $5,455/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $14.62) 92% EV / mo +$2,230 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 46% whole by 9mo vs 43% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,297/mo median; plan ~$2,242/mo after 68% keep · $21,998 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.0 mo [1.6-5.0], measured ONLY among the 46% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$14,597 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $16 @ 77% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.17/sh now → $0.83 mid-life (likely $0.68–$1.14) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.73/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 395 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 11, at $15 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $4 below CC-SS $18.34: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $14.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.97 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.76 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.34, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-105,100 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$100,085 − CC assignment net of premium (200 × $14.50): -$74,788 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-79,803 (+$25,297 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,815 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-74,988, the opportunity cost of earning $5,455/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.73 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$22,600, position total $-67,069 (+$38,031 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 132 × $13 | 31 Jul | 11d | 10.9% | 76% | 51% | +6pp | $4,224 | $11,520 | -$5,935 | $66,256 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 132 × $13 10.9% OTM over spot $11.72 31 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.33 mid) = $4,224 credit for the 11d cycle → $11,520/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $13.34) 80% EV / mo +$2,890 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 50% whole by 9mo vs 44% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,861/mo median; plan ~$3,305/mo after 68% keep · $31,051 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.1 mo [1.3-4.5], measured ONLY among the 50% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 43% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,029 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $16 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 132 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.99/sh now → $0.70 mid-life (likely $0.79–$1.10) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.32/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.38/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,295 simulated challenges: the $13 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $13 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13 is $5 below CC-SS $18.34: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.32 collected) or spot ≥ $13.34 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.97 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.76 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.34, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-105,100 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$100,085 − CC assignment net of premium (132 × $13): -$66,256 + Conservative CC premium (68 × $22): +$68 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-71,203 (+$33,897 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,815 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-66,388, the opportunity cost of earning $11,520/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.73 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$31,812, position total $-76,213 (+$28,887 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 200 × $13 | 31 Jul | 11d | 10.9% | 76% | 42% | +12pp | $6,400 | $17,455 | — | $100,388 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 200 × $13 10.9% OTM over spot $11.72 31 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.33 mid) = $6,400 credit for the 11d cycle → $17,455/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $13.34) 80% EV / mo +$4,379 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 53% whole by 9mo vs 41% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $7,611/mo median; plan ~$5,175/mo after 68% keep · $45,893 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.8 mo [1.5-4.5], measured ONLY among the 53% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 42% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$7,620 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $16 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.99/sh now → $0.70 mid-life (likely $0.78–$1.13) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.32/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.38/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,251 simulated challenges: the $13 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $13 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13 is $5 below CC-SS $18.34: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.32 collected) or spot ≥ $13.34 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.97 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.76 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.34, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-105,100 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$100,085 − CC assignment net of premium (200 × $13): -$100,388 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-105,403 ($-303 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,815 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-100,588, the opportunity cost of earning $17,455/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.73 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$48,200, position total $-92,669 (+$12,431 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 200 × $12 | 31 Jul | 11d | 2.4% | 59% | 88% | +19pp | $12,800 | $34,909 | +$17,455 | $113,988 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 200 × $12 2.4% OTM over spot $11.72 31 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.66 mid) = $12,800 credit for the 11d cycle → $34,909/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12) 59% Breach risk 41% POP (stays ≤ $12.65) 70% EV / mo +$4,748 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +19pp 63% whole by 9mo vs 44% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~6.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $10,914/mo median; plan ~$7,421/mo after 68% keep · $53,042 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.6 mo [1.5-4.6], measured ONLY among the 63% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 73% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$388 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $16 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.88/sh now → $0.62 mid-life (likely $0.85–$1.15) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.64/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,190 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 11, at $12 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12 is $6 below CC-SS $18.34: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.16/sh (~25% of the $0.64 collected) or spot ≥ $12.65 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.97 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.76 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.34, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-105,100 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$100,085 − CC assignment net of premium (200 × $12): -$113,988 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-119,003 ($-13,903 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,815 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-114,188, the opportunity cost of earning $34,909/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.73 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$61,800, position total $-106,269 ($-1,169 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 14 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.756 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$100,085 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-4,815
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13 | 11d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.32 | 200/200 | $17,455 | $17,455 | 76% | 80% | +$4,379 | -$100,388 | 1320.9% | $-105,403 (vs do-nothing $-100,588) |
| $12.50 | 4d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.21 | 111/200 | $17,482 | $17,631 | 74% | 79% | +$3,964 | -$62,486 | 822.2% | $-67,412 (vs do-nothing $-62,597) |
| $13 | 18d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.55 | 191/200 | $17,508 | $17,523 | 71% | 78% | +$2,702 | -$91,477 | 1203.6% | $-96,483 (vs do-nothing $-91,668) |
| $12.50 | 11d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.46 | 140/200 | $17,564 | $17,664 | 68% | 75% | +$3,353 | -$75,311 | 990.9% | $-80,266 (vs do-nothing $-75,451) |
| $12.50 | 18d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.71 | 148/200 | $17,513 | $17,600 | 65% | 74% | +$2,186 | -$75,915 | 998.9% | $-80,878 (vs do-nothing $-76,063) |
| $12.50 | 25d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.88 | 166/200 | $17,530 | $17,586 | 65% | 74% | +$2,545 | -$82,326 | 1083.2% | $-87,307 (vs do-nothing $-82,492) |
| $12 | 4d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.37 | 63/200 | $17,482 | $17,711 | 61% | 71% | +$2,355 | -$37,607 | 494.8% | $-42,485 (vs do-nothing $-37,670) |
| $12 | 11d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.64 | 100/200 | $17,455 | $17,621 | 59% | 70% | +$2,374 | -$56,994 | 749.9% | $-61,909 (vs do-nothing $-57,094) |
| $12 | 25d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.07 | 136/200 | $17,462 | $17,569 | 59% | 71% | +$2,091 | -$71,664 | 942.9% | $-76,615 (vs do-nothing $-71,800) |
| $12 | 18d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.90 | 117/200 | $17,550 | $17,688 | 59% | 71% | +$2,331 | -$63,641 | 837.4% | $-68,573 (vs do-nothing $-63,758) |
| $11.50 | 25d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.28 | 114/200 | $17,510 | $17,654 | 53% | 68% | +$1,544 | -$63,377 | 833.9% | $-68,306 (vs do-nothing $-63,491) |
| $11.50 | 18d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.11 | 95/200 | $17,575 | $17,750 | 51% | 68% | +$1,604 | -$54,429 | 716.2% | $-59,339 (vs do-nothing $-54,524) |
| $11.50 | 11d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.86 | 75/200 | $17,591 | $17,799 | 49% | 66% | +$1,442 | -$44,845 | 590.1% | $-49,735 (vs do-nothing $-44,920) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $11.50 | 4d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.59 | 40/200 | $17,700 | $17,967 | 45% | 64% | +$992 | -$24,998 | 328.9% | $-29,852 (vs do-nothing $-25,038) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 200 contracts at the conservative CC.