200 contracts (20,000 sh) | BE SS: $22.69 | CC-SS: $18.26 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $207,600 | (ND $0.38 + SW $10) x 20000 |
| Normal income ref | $33,000/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $5,727/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-104,100 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 200 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 3d | 150 × $13 | 88% | $16,500 | $6,254 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 31 Jul 2026 · 10d | 178 × $13 | 77% | $16,554 | $2,860 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 200 × $13.50 | 24 Jul | 3d | 15.3% | 94% | 13% | +6pp | $1,000 | $10,000 | -$6,500 | $94,246 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 200 × $13.50 15.3% OTM over spot $11.71 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.06 mid) = $1,000 credit for the 3d cycle → $10,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $13.56) 94% EV / mo +$6,701 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 53% whole by 9mo vs 48% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $6,919/mo median; plan ~$4,705/mo after 68% keep · $35,527 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.3 mo [1.2-4.0], measured ONLY among the 53% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$8,022 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $17 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.64/sh now → $0.45 mid-life (likely $0.41–$0.73) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.40/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 208 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $14 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $5 below CC-SS $18.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $13.56 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.96 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.75 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-104,100 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$98,884 − CC assignment net of premium (200 × $13.50): -$94,246 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-99,462 (+$4,638 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,016 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-94,446, the opportunity cost of earning $10,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.74 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$43,800, position total $-87,052 (+$17,048 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 99 × $13 | 24 Jul | 3d | 11.1% | 88% | 25% | +8pp | $1,089 | $10,890 | -$5,610 | $51,008 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 99 × $13 11.1% OTM over spot $11.71 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.11 mid) = $1,089 credit for the 3d cycle → $10,890/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $13.12) 90% EV / mo +$6,753 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 52% whole by 9mo vs 44% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $6,796/mo median; plan ~$4,621/mo after 68% keep · $37,502 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.5 mo [1.3-4.5], measured ONLY among the 52% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,129 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $17 @ 88% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 99 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.60/sh now → $0.43 mid-life (likely $0.41–$0.78) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.32/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 424 simulated challenges: the $13 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $13 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13 is $5 below CC-SS $18.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $13.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.96 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.75 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-104,100 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$98,884 − CC assignment net of premium (99 × $13): -$51,008 + Conservative CC premium (101 × $21): +$101 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-56,123 (+$47,977 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,016 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-51,107, the opportunity cost of earning $10,890/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.74 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$26,037, position total $-69,188 (+$34,912 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 150 × $13 | 24 Jul | 3d | 11.1% | 88% | 16% | +11pp | $1,650 | $16,500 | — | $77,285 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 150 × $13 11.1% OTM over spot $11.71 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.11 mid) = $1,650 credit for the 3d cycle → $16,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $13.12) 90% EV / mo +$10,231 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +11pp 60% whole by 9mo vs 49% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $9,817/mo median; plan ~$6,675/mo after 68% keep · $49,445 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.3 mo [1.3-4.2], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 16% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,740 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $17 @ 88% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 150 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.60/sh now → $0.43 mid-life (likely $0.43–$0.79) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.32/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 481 simulated challenges: the $13 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $13 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13 is $5 below CC-SS $18.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $13.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.96 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.75 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-104,100 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$98,884 − CC assignment net of premium (150 × $13): -$77,285 + Conservative CC premium (50 × $21): +$50 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-82,450 (+$21,650 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,016 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-77,435, the opportunity cost of earning $16,500/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.74 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$39,450, position total $-82,652 (+$21,448 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 150 × $12.50 | 24 Jul | 3d | 6.8% | 78% | 46% | +23pp | $3,300 | $33,000 | +$16,500 | $83,135 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 150 × $12.50 6.8% OTM over spot $11.71 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.23 mid) = $3,300 credit for the 3d cycle → $33,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12.50) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $12.72) 83% EV / mo +$17,026 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +23pp 65% whole by 9mo vs 42% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $14,938/mo median; plan ~$10,158/mo after 68% keep · $71,426 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.3 mo [1.3-4.4], measured ONLY among the 65% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,724 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $17 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 150 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.57/sh now → $0.40 mid-life (likely $0.46–$0.78) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 963 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $13 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12.50 is $6 below CC-SS $18.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.22 collected) or spot ≥ $12.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.96 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.75 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-104,100 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$98,884 − CC assignment net of premium (150 × $12.50): -$83,135 + Conservative CC premium (50 × $21): +$50 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-88,300 (+$15,800 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,016 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-83,285, the opportunity cost of earning $33,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.74 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$45,300, position total $-88,502 (+$15,598 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 200 × $14.50 | 31 Jul | 10d | 23.9% | 92% | 17% | +6pp | $2,000 | $6,000 | -$10,554 | $73,246 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 200 × $14.50 23.9% OTM over spot $11.71 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.11 mid) = $2,000 credit for the 10d cycle → $6,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $14.61) 92% EV / mo +$3,076 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 47% whole by 9mo vs 41% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,773/mo median; plan ~$2,566/mo after 68% keep · $23,774 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.8 mo [1.5-5.0], measured ONLY among the 47% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$14,479 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $16 @ 78% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.16/sh now → $0.82 mid-life (likely $0.68–$1.12) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.72/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 326 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $15 (overshoots $0.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $4 below CC-SS $18.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $14.61 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.96 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.75 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-104,100 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$98,884 − CC assignment net of premium (200 × $14.50): -$73,246 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-78,462 (+$25,638 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,016 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-73,446, the opportunity cost of earning $6,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.74 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$22,800, position total $-66,052 (+$38,048 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 173 × $13.50 | 31 Jul | 10d | 15.3% | 84% | 34% | +6pp | $3,633 | $10,899 | -$5,655 | $78,755 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 173 × $13.50 15.3% OTM over spot $11.71 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.22 mid) = $3,633 credit for the 10d cycle → $10,899/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $13.72) 86% EV / mo +$4,458 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 46% whole by 9mo vs 40% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $5,686/mo median; plan ~$3,867/mo after 68% keep · $36,220 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.7 mo [1.5-4.7], measured ONLY among the 46% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 25% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$9,107 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $16 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 173 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.04/sh now → $0.74 mid-life (likely $0.73–$1.12) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.21/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.53/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 759 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $14 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $5 below CC-SS $18.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.21 collected) or spot ≥ $13.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.96 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.75 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-104,100 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$98,884 − CC assignment net of premium (173 × $13.50): -$78,755 + Conservative CC premium (27 × $21): +$27 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-83,944 (+$20,156 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,016 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-78,928, the opportunity cost of earning $10,899/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.74 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$35,119, position total $-78,344 (+$25,756 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 178 × $13 | 31 Jul | 10d | 11.1% | 77% | 37% | +12pp | $5,518 | $16,554 | — | $88,151 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 178 × $13 11.1% OTM over spot $11.71 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.33 mid) = $5,518 credit for the 10d cycle → $16,554/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $13.33) 82% EV / mo +$5,901 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 54% whole by 9mo vs 42% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $7,615/mo median; plan ~$5,178/mo after 68% keep · $48,594 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.9 mo [1.5-4.8], measured ONLY among the 54% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 37% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,841 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $16 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 178 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.98/sh now → $0.69 mid-life (likely $0.75–$1.10) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.31/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.38/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,108 simulated challenges: the $13 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $13 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13 is $5 below CC-SS $18.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.31 collected) or spot ≥ $13.33 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.96 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.75 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-104,100 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$98,884 − CC assignment net of premium (178 × $13): -$88,151 + Conservative CC premium (22 × $21): +$22 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-93,345 (+$10,755 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,016 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-88,329, the opportunity cost of earning $16,554/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.74 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$43,254, position total $-86,484 (+$17,616 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 172 × $12 | 31 Jul | 10d | 2.5% | 59% | 86% | +12pp | $11,008 | $33,024 | +$16,470 | $96,704 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 172 × $12 2.5% OTM over spot $11.71 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.67 mid) = $11,008 credit for the 10d cycle → $33,024/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12) 59% Breach risk 41% POP (stays ≤ $12.67) 72% EV / mo +$7,867 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 56% whole by 9mo vs 43% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~6.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $9,682/mo median; plan ~$6,584/mo after 68% keep · $58,534 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.6 mo [1.4-4.5], measured ONLY among the 56% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 69% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$454 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $16 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 172 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.87/sh now → $0.61 mid-life (likely $0.84–$1.16) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.64/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,083 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $12 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12 is $6 below CC-SS $18.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.16/sh (~25% of the $0.64 collected) or spot ≥ $12.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.96 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.75 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-104,100 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$98,884 − CC assignment net of premium (172 × $12): -$96,704 + Conservative CC premium (28 × $21): +$28 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-101,892 (+$2,208 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,016 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-96,876, the opportunity cost of earning $33,024/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.74 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$53,320, position total $-96,544 (+$7,556 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 16 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.754 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$98,884 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-5,016
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.11 | 150/200 | $16,500 | $16,650 | 88% | 90% | +$10,231 | -$77,285 | 1016.9% | $-82,450 (vs do-nothing $-77,435) |
| $12.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.22 | 75/200 | $16,500 | $16,875 | 78% | 83% | +$8,513 | -$41,567 | 546.9% | $-46,658 (vs do-nothing $-41,642) |
| $13 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.31 | 178/200 | $16,554 | $16,620 | 77% | 82% | +$5,901 | -$88,151 | 1159.9% | $-93,345 (vs do-nothing $-88,329) |
| $13 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.55 | 170/200 | $16,500 | $16,590 | 72% | 79% | +$4,590 | -$80,110 | 1054.1% | $-85,295 (vs do-nothing $-80,280) |
| $13 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.75 | 176/200 | $16,500 | $16,572 | 70% | 78% | +$4,314 | -$79,417 | 1045.0% | $-84,608 (vs do-nothing $-79,593) |
| $12.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.45 | 123/200 | $16,605 | $16,836 | 69% | 77% | +$4,937 | -$65,342 | 859.8% | $-70,480 (vs do-nothing $-65,465) |
| $12.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.71 | 132/200 | $16,539 | $16,743 | 66% | 75% | +$3,962 | -$66,691 | 877.5% | $-71,838 (vs do-nothing $-66,823) |
| $12.50 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.90 | 147/200 | $16,538 | $16,696 | 65% | 75% | +$3,601 | -$71,476 | 940.5% | $-76,639 (vs do-nothing $-71,623) |
| $12 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.38 | 44/200 | $16,720 | $17,188 | 62% | 75% | +$5,991 | -$25,882 | 340.6% | $-30,942 (vs do-nothing $-25,926) |
| $12 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.64 | 86/200 | $16,512 | $16,854 | 59% | 72% | +$3,933 | -$48,352 | 636.2% | $-53,454 (vs do-nothing $-48,438) |
| $12 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.11 | 119/200 | $16,511 | $16,754 | 59% | 72% | +$3,300 | -$61,313 | 806.7% | $-66,447 (vs do-nothing $-61,432) |
| $12 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.92 | 102/200 | $16,560 | $16,854 | 59% | 72% | +$3,532 | -$54,492 | 717.0% | $-59,609 (vs do-nothing $-54,594) |
| $11.50 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.33 | 100/200 | $16,625 | $16,925 | 52% | 69% | +$2,737 | -$54,323 | 714.8% | $-59,439 (vs do-nothing $-54,423) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $11.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.14 | 83/200 | $16,698 | $17,049 | 51% | 68% | +$2,727 | -$46,665 | 614.0% | $-51,764 (vs do-nothing $-46,748) |
| $11.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.88 | 63/200 | $16,632 | $17,043 | 49% | 68% | +$2,956 | -$37,059 | 487.6% | $-42,137 (vs do-nothing $-37,122) |
| $11.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.62 | 27/200 | $16,740 | $17,259 | 44% | 67% | +$3,776 | -$16,584 | 218.2% | $-21,627 (vs do-nothing $-16,611) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 200 contracts at the conservative CC.