50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $24.33 | CC-SS: $18.98 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $56,650 | (ND $4.33 + SW $7) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $11,727/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $943/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-25,500 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 4d | 50 × $14 | 91% | $5,250 | $3,058 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 11d | 46 × $13.50 | 73% | $5,896 | $1,840 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 37 × $14 | 17 Jul | 4d | 12.3% | 91% | 17% | $518 | $3,885 | -$1,365 | $17,890 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 37 × $14 12.3% OTM over spot $12.47 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.15 mid) = $518 credit for the 4d cycle → $3,885/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $14.15) 93% EV / mo +$3,194 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.2-4.1] median · 57% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 48% without) · ~4.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,155 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,509 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $17 @ 86% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 37 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.77/sh now → $0.55 mid-life (likely $0.48–$0.85) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.41/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 293 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $14 (overshoots $0.33). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $5 below CC-SS $18.98: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.14 collected) or spot ≥ $14.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.39 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.98, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,500 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$29,274 − CC assignment net of premium (37 × $14): -$17,890 + Conservative CC premium (13 × $24): +$13 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,104 (+$11,396 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $3,824 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,927, the opportunity cost of earning $3,885/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,586, position total $-16,548 (+$8,952 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $14 | 17 Jul | 4d | 12.3% | 91% | 11% | $700 | $5,250 | — | $24,176 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $14 12.3% OTM over spot $12.47 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.15 mid) = $700 credit for the 4d cycle → $5,250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $14.15) 93% EV / mo +$4,316 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.8 mo [1.6-4.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.9 mo) · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 45% without) · ~4.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $13,522 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,040 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $17 @ 86% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.77/sh now → $0.55 mid-life (likely $0.49–$0.89) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.41/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 320 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $14 (overshoots $0.35). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $5 below CC-SS $18.98: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.14 collected) or spot ≥ $14.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.39 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.98, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,500 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$29,274 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $14): -$24,176 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,403 (+$5,097 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $3,824 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-24,226, the opportunity cost of earning $5,250/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,900, position total $-18,875 (+$6,625 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 50% normal | 33 × $13.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 8.3% | 83% | 34% | $792 | $5,940 | +$690 | $17,276 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 33 × $13.50 8.3% OTM over spot $12.47 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.25 mid) = $792 credit for the 4d cycle → $5,940/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $13.75) 88% EV / mo +$4,289 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.4-4.7] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.2 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 43% without) · ~9.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $15,915 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$912 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 87% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 33 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.73/sh now → $0.52 mid-life (likely $0.53–$0.94) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.24/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 696 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $14 (overshoots $0.35). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $5 below CC-SS $18.98: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.24 collected) or spot ≥ $13.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.39 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.98, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,500 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$29,274 − CC assignment net of premium (33 × $13.50): -$17,276 + Conservative CC premium (17 × $24): +$17 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,486 (+$12,014 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $3,824 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,309, the opportunity cost of earning $5,940/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,194, position total $-17,152 (+$8,348 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 41 × $13 | 17 Jul | 4d | 4.3% | 70% | 61% | $1,599 | $11,992 | +$6,742 | $22,900 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 41 × $13 4.3% OTM over spot $12.47 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.40 mid) = $1,599 credit for the 4d cycle → $11,992/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13) 70% Breach risk 30% POP (stays ≤ $13.40) 81% EV / mo +$7,004 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.5 mo [1.2-4.3] median, 0.3 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.2 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 75% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 50% without) · ~16.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $19,075 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 41% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$391 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $17 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 41 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.69/sh now → $0.49 mid-life (likely $0.56–$0.92) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,239 simulated challenges: the $13 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $13 (overshoots $0.31). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13 is $6 below CC-SS $18.98: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.39 collected) or spot ≥ $13.40 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.39 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.98, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,500 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$29,274 − CC assignment net of premium (41 × $13): -$22,900 + Conservative CC premium (9 × $24): +$9 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,117 (+$6,383 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $3,824 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,941, the opportunity cost of earning $11,992/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,373, position total $-20,339 (+$5,161 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $15 | 24 Jul | 11d | 20.3% | 90% | 20% | $850 | $2,318 | -$3,578 | $19,026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $15 20.3% OTM over spot $12.47 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.18 mid) = $850 credit for the 11d cycle → $2,318/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $15.19) 92% EV / mo +$1,512 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.2 mo [1.2-4.0] median · 55% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 48% without) · ~2.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,015 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,431 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 77% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.21/sh now → $0.86 mid-life (likely $0.69–$1.16) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.69/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 404 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 11, at $15 (overshoots $0.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $4 below CC-SS $18.98: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $15.19 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.39 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.98, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,500 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$29,274 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $15): -$19,026 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,253 (+$10,247 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $3,824 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,076, the opportunity cost of earning $2,318/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,750, position total $-13,725 (+$11,775 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 43 × $14 | 24 Jul | 11d | 12.3% | 81% | 41% | $1,419 | $3,870 | -$2,026 | $19,975 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 43 × $14 12.3% OTM over spot $12.47 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.35 mid) = $1,419 credit for the 11d cycle → $3,870/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $14.35) 85% EV / mo +$2,026 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.2-4.3] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.6 mo) · 59% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 50% without) · ~5.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $11,024 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 30% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,870 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 81% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 43 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.08/sh now → $0.76 mid-life (likely $0.77–$1.17) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.33/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.43/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 908 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $14 (overshoots $0.36). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $5 below CC-SS $18.98: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.33 collected) or spot ≥ $14.35 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.39 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.98, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,500 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$29,274 − CC assignment net of premium (43 × $14): -$19,975 + Conservative CC premium (7 × $24): +$7 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,194 (+$9,306 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $3,824 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,018, the opportunity cost of earning $3,870/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,837, position total $-16,805 (+$8,695 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 46 × $13.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 8.3% | 73% | 45% | $2,162 | $5,896 | — | $23,024 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 46 × $13.50 8.3% OTM over spot $12.47 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.49 mid) = $2,162 credit for the 11d cycle → $5,896/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $13.99) 81% EV / mo +$2,721 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.7 mo [1.4-4.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.8 mo) · 58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 43% without) · ~7.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $14,596 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 45% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,155 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 89% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 46 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.02/sh now → $0.72 mid-life (likely $0.81–$1.18) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.47/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.25/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,345 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $14 (overshoots $0.34). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $5 below CC-SS $18.98: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.47 collected) or spot ≥ $13.99 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.39 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.98, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,500 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$29,274 − CC assignment net of premium (46 × $13.50): -$23,024 + Conservative CC premium (4 × $24): +$4 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,247 (+$6,253 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $3,824 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,070, the opportunity cost of earning $5,896/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,970, position total $-18,941 (+$6,559 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 50 × $12.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 0.2% | 54% | 99% | $4,300 | $11,727 | +$5,831 | $28,076 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $12.50 0.2% OTM over spot $12.47 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.87 mid) = $4,300 credit for the 11d cycle → $11,727/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12.50) 54% Breach risk 46% POP (stays ≤ $13.37) 71% EV / mo +$3,546 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.2 mo [1.2-3.9] median · 66% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 51% without) · ~23.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $15,546 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 80% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$1,113 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.90/sh now → $0.64 mid-life (likely $0.91–$1.28) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.86/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.22/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,404 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 11, at $13 (overshoots $0.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12.50 is $6 below CC-SS $18.98: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.86 collected) or spot ≥ $13.37 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.39 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.98, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,500 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$29,274 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $12.50): -$28,076 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,303 (+$1,197 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $3,824 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-28,126, the opportunity cost of earning $11,727/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,800, position total $-22,775 (+$2,725 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 8 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$29,274 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $3,824
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.24 | 33/50 | $5,940 | $5,986 | 83% | 88% | +$4,289 | -$17,276 | 79.8% | $-13,486 (vs do-nothing $-17,309) |
| $13.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.47 | 46/50 | $5,896 | $5,907 | 73% | 81% | +$2,721 | -$23,024 | 106.3% | $-19,247 (vs do-nothing $-23,070) |
| $13 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.39 | 21/50 | $6,142 | $6,222 | 70% | 81% | +$3,587 | -$11,729 | 54.2% | $-7,926 (vs do-nothing $-11,750) |
| $13 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.63 | 35/50 | $6,014 | $6,055 | 64% | 76% | +$2,225 | -$18,708 | 86.4% | $-14,920 (vs do-nothing $-18,743) |
| $13 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.85 | 42/50 | $5,950 | $5,972 | 62% | 74% | +$1,780 | -$21,526 | 99.4% | $-17,744 (vs do-nothing $-21,568) |
| $12.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.13 | 32/50 | $6,027 | $6,076 | 54% | 71% | +$1,714 | -$17,105 | 79.0% | $-13,313 (vs do-nothing $-17,137) |
| $12.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.86 | 25/50 | $5,864 | $5,932 | 54% | 71% | +$1,773 | -$14,038 | 64.8% | $-10,239 (vs do-nothing $-14,063) |
| $12.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.61 | 13/50 | $5,948 | $6,048 | 53% | 74% | +$2,578 | -$7,625 | 35.2% | $-3,814 (vs do-nothing $-7,638) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.