50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $24.33 | CC-SS: $18.93 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $56,650 | (ND $4.33 + SW $7) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $11,727/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $943/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-25,500 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 4d | 33 × $13.50 | 84% | $5,940 | $3,046 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 11d | 46 × $13.50 | 74% | $5,896 | $1,834 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 37 × $14 | 17 Jul | 4d | 12.6% | 92% | 16% | $518 | $3,885 | -$2,055 | $17,714 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 37 × $14 12.6% OTM over spot $12.43 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.15 mid) = $518 credit for the 4d cycle → $3,885/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $14.15) 94% EV / mo +$3,262 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.4 mo [1.2-4.1] median · 56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 48% without) · ~4.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,691 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,618 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $17 @ 86% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 37 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.82/sh now → $0.58 mid-life (likely $0.55–$0.98) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.44/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 271 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $14 (overshoots $0.36). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $5 below CC-SS $18.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.14 collected) or spot ≥ $14.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,500 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$29,239 − CC assignment net of premium (37 × $14): -$17,714 + Conservative CC premium (13 × $24): +$13 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,962 (+$11,538 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $3,789 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,751, the opportunity cost of earning $3,885/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,586, position total $-16,368 (+$9,132 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $14 | 17 Jul | 4d | 12.6% | 92% | 16% | $700 | $5,250 | -$690 | $23,938 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $14 12.6% OTM over spot $12.43 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.15 mid) = $700 credit for the 4d cycle → $5,250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $14.15) 94% EV / mo +$4,408 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.7 mo [1.5-4.4] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.9 mo) · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 45% without) · ~4.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $12,921 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,186 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $17 @ 86% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.82/sh now → $0.58 mid-life (likely $0.52–$0.95) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.44/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 294 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $14 (overshoots $0.35). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $5 below CC-SS $18.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.14 collected) or spot ≥ $14.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,500 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$29,239 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $14): -$23,938 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,199 (+$5,301 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $3,789 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,988, the opportunity cost of earning $5,250/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,900, position total $-18,695 (+$6,805 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 33 × $13.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 8.6% | 84% | 22% | $792 | $5,940 | — | $17,119 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 33 × $13.50 8.6% OTM over spot $12.43 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.25 mid) = $792 credit for the 4d cycle → $5,940/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $13.75) 89% EV / mo +$4,430 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.5 mo [1.3-4.7] median, 0.4 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.1 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 44% without) · ~8.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $15,622 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,002 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 87% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 33 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.77/sh now → $0.54 mid-life (likely $0.56–$0.98) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.24/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 645 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $14 (overshoots $0.36). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $5 below CC-SS $18.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.24 collected) or spot ≥ $13.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,500 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$29,239 − CC assignment net of premium (33 × $13.50): -$17,119 + Conservative CC premium (17 × $24): +$17 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,363 (+$12,137 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $3,789 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,152, the opportunity cost of earning $5,940/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,194, position total $-16,972 (+$8,528 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 41 × $13 | 17 Jul | 4d | 4.6% | 72% | 59% | $1,599 | $11,992 | +$6,053 | $22,704 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 41 × $13 4.6% OTM over spot $12.43 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.40 mid) = $1,599 credit for the 4d cycle → $11,992/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13) 72% Breach risk 28% POP (stays ≤ $13.40) 82% EV / mo +$7,358 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.5 mo [1.2-4.3] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.6 mo) · 76% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 49% without) · ~15.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $19,847 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 39% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$498 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $17 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 41 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.72/sh now → $0.51 mid-life (likely $0.58–$0.95) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.12/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,171 simulated challenges: the $13 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $13 (overshoots $0.31). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13 is $6 below CC-SS $18.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.39 collected) or spot ≥ $13.40 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,500 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$29,239 − CC assignment net of premium (41 × $13): -$22,704 + Conservative CC premium (9 × $24): +$9 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,956 (+$6,544 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $3,789 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,745, the opportunity cost of earning $11,992/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,373, position total $-20,159 (+$5,341 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $15 | 24 Jul | 11d | 20.7% | 91% | 19% | $850 | $2,318 | -$3,578 | $18,788 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $15 20.7% OTM over spot $12.43 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.18 mid) = $850 credit for the 11d cycle → $2,318/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $15.19) 92% EV / mo +$1,557 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.2 mo [1.2-4.0] median · 55% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 48% without) · ~2.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,465 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,569 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 77% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.25/sh now → $0.88 mid-life (likely $0.72–$1.19) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.71/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 376 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $15 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $4 below CC-SS $18.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $15.19 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,500 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$29,239 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $15): -$18,788 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,049 (+$10,451 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $3,789 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,838, the opportunity cost of earning $2,318/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,750, position total $-13,545 (+$11,955 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 43 × $14 | 24 Jul | 11d | 12.6% | 81% | 39% | $1,419 | $3,870 | -$2,026 | $19,770 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 43 × $14 12.6% OTM over spot $12.43 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.35 mid) = $1,419 credit for the 11d cycle → $3,870/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $14.35) 85% EV / mo +$2,115 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.2 mo [1.2-4.3] median, 0.4 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.6 mo) · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 50% without) · ~4.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $11,024 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 30% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,976 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 82% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 43 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.12/sh now → $0.79 mid-life (likely $0.78–$1.19) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.33/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 894 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $14 (overshoots $0.35). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $5 below CC-SS $18.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.33 collected) or spot ≥ $14.35 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,500 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$29,239 − CC assignment net of premium (43 × $14): -$19,770 + Conservative CC premium (7 × $24): +$7 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,023 (+$9,477 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $3,789 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,813, the opportunity cost of earning $3,870/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,837, position total $-16,625 (+$8,875 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 46 × $13.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 8.6% | 74% | 44% | $2,162 | $5,896 | — | $22,805 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 46 × $13.50 8.6% OTM over spot $12.43 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.49 mid) = $2,162 credit for the 11d cycle → $5,896/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 74% Breach risk 26% POP (stays ≤ $13.99) 81% EV / mo +$2,860 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.5 mo [1.3-4.4] median · 59% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 45% without) · ~7.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $14,957 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 44% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,262 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 89% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 46 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.05/sh now → $0.74 mid-life (likely $0.84–$1.21) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.47/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.27/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,305 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $14 (overshoots $0.35). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $5 below CC-SS $18.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.47 collected) or spot ≥ $13.99 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,500 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$29,239 − CC assignment net of premium (46 × $13.50): -$22,805 + Conservative CC premium (4 × $24): +$4 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,062 (+$6,438 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $3,789 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,851, the opportunity cost of earning $5,896/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,970, position total $-18,761 (+$6,739 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 50 × $12.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 0.6% | 54% | 97% | $4,300 | $11,727 | +$5,831 | $27,838 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $12.50 0.6% OTM over spot $12.43 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.87 mid) = $4,300 credit for the 11d cycle → $11,727/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12.50) 54% Breach risk 46% POP (stays ≤ $13.37) 72% EV / mo +$3,825 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.2 mo [1.2-3.9] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.4 mo) · 65% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 50% without) · ~22.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $16,113 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 79% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$1,011 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 91% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.93/sh now → $0.66 mid-life (likely $0.93–$1.31) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.86/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.20/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,360 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 11, at $13 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12.50 is $6 below CC-SS $18.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.86 collected) or spot ≥ $13.37 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,500 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$29,239 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $12.50): -$27,838 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,099 (+$1,401 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $3,789 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-27,888, the opportunity cost of earning $11,727/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,800, position total $-22,595 (+$2,905 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 8 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$29,239 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $3,789
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.24 | 33/50 | $5,940 | $5,986 | 84% | 89% | +$4,430 | -$17,119 | 79.1% | $-13,363 (vs do-nothing $-17,152) |
| $13.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.47 | 46/50 | $5,896 | $5,907 | 74% | 81% | +$2,860 | -$22,805 | 105.3% | $-19,062 (vs do-nothing $-22,851) |
| $13 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.39 | 21/50 | $6,142 | $6,222 | 72% | 82% | +$3,769 | -$11,629 | 53.7% | $-7,861 (vs do-nothing $-11,650) |
| $13 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.63 | 35/50 | $6,014 | $6,055 | 65% | 76% | +$2,373 | -$18,542 | 85.6% | $-14,787 (vs do-nothing $-18,577) |
| $13 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.85 | 42/50 | $5,950 | $5,972 | 63% | 75% | +$1,899 | -$21,326 | 98.5% | $-17,579 (vs do-nothing $-21,368) |
| $12.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.13 | 32/50 | $6,027 | $6,076 | 55% | 72% | +$1,825 | -$16,952 | 78.3% | $-13,195 (vs do-nothing $-16,984) |
| $12.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.86 | 25/50 | $5,864 | $5,932 | 54% | 72% | +$1,912 | -$13,919 | 64.3% | $-10,155 (vs do-nothing $-13,944) |
| $12.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.61 | 13/50 | $5,948 | $6,048 | 54% | 75% | +$2,770 | -$7,563 | 34.9% | $-3,787 (vs do-nothing $-7,576) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.