50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $24.33 | CC-SS: $19.47 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $56,650 | (ND $4.33 + SW $7) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $8,603/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $958/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-29,025 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 3d | 48 × $13.50 | 90% | $4,320 | $1,893 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 10d | 35 × $13 | 71% | $4,305 | $1,063 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 32 × $13.50 | 17 Jul | 3d | 11.9% | 90% | 20% | $288 | $2,880 | -$1,440 | $18,806 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 32 × $13.50 11.9% OTM over spot $12.06 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.10 mid) = $288 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,880/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $13.60) 92% EV / mo +$1,944 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.7 mo [1.5-5.0] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.6 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 51% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 40% without) · ~7.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $11,684 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,111 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 32 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.62/sh now → $0.44 mid-life (likely $0.41–$0.79) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.35/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 331 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $14 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $6 below CC-SS $19.47: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $13.60 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.44 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.74 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.47, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,025 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$27,461 − CC assignment net of premium (32 × $13.50): -$18,806 + Conservative CC premium (18 × $21): +$18 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,352 (+$8,673 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,514 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,838, the opportunity cost of earning $2,880/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.93 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,488, position total $-22,156 (+$6,869 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 48 × $13.50 | 17 Jul | 3d | 11.9% | 90% | 12% | $432 | $4,320 | — | $28,209 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 48 × $13.50 11.9% OTM over spot $12.06 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.10 mid) = $432 credit for the 3d cycle → $4,320/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $13.60) 92% EV / mo +$2,916 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.7 mo [1.5-5.0] median · 49% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 34% without) · ~7.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $16,374 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,666 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 48 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.62/sh now → $0.44 mid-life (likely $0.41–$0.76) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.35/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 347 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $14 (overshoots $0.36). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $6 below CC-SS $19.47: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $13.60 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.44 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.74 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.47, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,025 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$27,461 − CC assignment net of premium (48 × $13.50): -$28,209 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $21): +$2 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-29,771 ($-746 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,514 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-28,257, the opportunity cost of earning $4,320/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.93 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,232, position total $-25,916 (+$3,109 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $13.50 | 17 Jul | 3d | 11.9% | 90% | 20% | $450 | $4,500 | +$180 | $29,385 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $13.50 11.9% OTM over spot $12.06 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.10 mid) = $450 credit for the 3d cycle → $4,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $13.60) 92% EV / mo +$3,038 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.5 mo [1.4-4.6] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.7 mo) · 52% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 36% without) · ~7.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $16,129 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,735 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.62/sh now → $0.44 mid-life (likely $0.40–$0.77) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.35/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 342 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $14 (overshoots $0.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $6 below CC-SS $19.47: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $13.60 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.44 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.74 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.47, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,025 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$27,461 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $13.50): -$29,385 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,949 ($-1,924 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,514 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-29,435, the opportunity cost of earning $4,500/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.93 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,700, position total $-26,386 (+$2,639 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 27 × $12.50 | 17 Jul | 3d | 3.6% | 67% | 68% | $864 | $8,640 | +$4,320 | $17,947 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 27 × $12.50 3.6% OTM over spot $12.06 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.33 mid) = $864 credit for the 3d cycle → $8,640/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12.50) 67% Breach risk 33% POP (stays ≤ $12.83) 77% EV / mo +$3,476 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.2 mo [1.5-4.9] median, 0.3 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.9 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 36% without) · ~29.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $18,280 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 47% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$185 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 27 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.55/sh now → $0.39 mid-life (likely $0.48–$0.83) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.32/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.07/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,403 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $13 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12.50 is $7 below CC-SS $19.47: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.32 collected) or spot ≥ $12.83 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.44 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.74 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.47, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,025 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$27,461 − CC assignment net of premium (27 × $12.50): -$17,947 + Conservative CC premium (23 × $21): +$23 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,488 (+$9,537 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,514 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,974, the opportunity cost of earning $8,640/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.93 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,397, position total $-23,060 (+$5,965 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $15 | 24 Jul | 10d | 24.3% | 93% | 15% | $450 | $1,350 | -$2,955 | $21,885 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $15 24.3% OTM over spot $12.06 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.10 mid) = $450 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,350/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $15.10) 93% EV / mo +$750 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.0 mo [1.8-5.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.1 mo) · 40% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 36% without) · ~2.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,995 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,615 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 75% POP 66% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.15/sh now → $0.81 mid-life (likely $0.65–$1.09) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.72/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 280 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $15 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $4 below CC-SS $19.47: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $15.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.44 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.74 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.47, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,025 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$27,461 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $15): -$21,885 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,449 (+$5,576 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,514 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,935, the opportunity cost of earning $1,350/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.93 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,200, position total $-18,886 (+$10,139 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 48 × $14 | 24 Jul | 10d | 16.0% | 85% | 31% | $960 | $2,880 | -$1,425 | $25,281 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 48 × $14 16.0% OTM over spot $12.06 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.21 mid) = $960 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,880/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $14.21) 87% EV / mo +$1,353 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.5 mo [1.8-5.6] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.4 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 50% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 40% without) · ~4.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,946 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,535 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 76% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 48 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.03/sh now → $0.73 mid-life (likely $0.69–$1.06) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.53/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 665 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $14 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $5 below CC-SS $19.47: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $14.21 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.44 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.74 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.47, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,025 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$27,461 − CC assignment net of premium (48 × $14): -$25,281 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $21): +$2 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,843 (+$2,182 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,514 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,329, the opportunity cost of earning $2,880/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.93 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,304, position total $-22,988 (+$6,037 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 35 × $13 | 24 Jul | 10d | 7.7% | 71% | 48% | $1,435 | $4,305 | — | $21,199 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 35 × $13 7.7% OTM over spot $12.06 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.42 mid) = $1,435 credit for the 10d cycle → $4,305/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13) 71% Breach risk 29% POP (stays ≤ $13.43) 78% EV / mo +$1,287 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.8 mo [1.6-4.6] median · 54% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 46% without) · ~10.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,480 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 48% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$832 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 35 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.92/sh now → $0.65 mid-life (likely $0.72–$1.05) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.41/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.24/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,430 simulated challenges: the $13 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 10, at $13 (overshoots $0.34). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13 is $6 below CC-SS $19.47: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.41 collected) or spot ≥ $13.43 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.44 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.74 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.47, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,025 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$27,461 − CC assignment net of premium (35 × $13): -$21,199 + Conservative CC premium (15 × $21): +$15 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,748 (+$6,277 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,514 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,234, the opportunity cost of earning $4,305/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.93 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,820, position total $-23,491 (+$5,534 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 50 × $12.50 | 24 Jul | 10d | 3.6% | 62% | 80% | $2,900 | $8,700 | +$4,395 | $31,935 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $12.50 3.6% OTM over spot $12.06 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.62 mid) = $2,900 credit for the 10d cycle → $8,700/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12.50) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $13.12) 74% EV / mo +$2,275 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.9 mo [1.8-5.1] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.2 mo) · 56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 41% without) · ~16.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $16,880 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 65% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$146 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.86/sh now → $0.61 mid-life (likely $0.80–$1.09) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.58/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,955 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $13 (overshoots $0.36). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12.50 is $7 below CC-SS $19.47: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.58 collected) or spot ≥ $13.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.44 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.74 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.47, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,025 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$27,461 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $12.50): -$31,935 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-33,499 ($-4,474 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,514 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-31,985, the opportunity cost of earning $8,700/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.93 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$14,250, position total $-28,936 (+$89 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 10 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.742 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$27,461 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,514
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.09 | 48/50 | $4,320 | $4,326 | 90% | 92% | +$2,916 | -$28,209 | 130.3% | $-29,771 (vs do-nothing $-28,257) |
| $13 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.17 | 26/50 | $4,420 | $4,492 | 81% | 85% | +$2,357 | -$16,372 | 75.6% | $-17,912 (vs do-nothing $-16,398) |
| $13 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.41 | 35/50 | $4,305 | $4,350 | 71% | 78% | +$1,287 | -$21,199 | 97.9% | $-22,748 (vs do-nothing $-21,234) |
| $13 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.64 | 39/50 | $4,405 | $4,438 | 68% | 76% | +$1,221 | -$22,725 | 105.0% | $-24,278 (vs do-nothing $-22,764) |
| $12.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.32 | 14/50 | $4,480 | $4,588 | 67% | 77% | +$1,802 | -$9,306 | 43.0% | $-10,833 (vs do-nothing $-9,320) |
| $12.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.58 | 25/50 | $4,350 | $4,425 | 62% | 74% | +$1,138 | -$15,967 | 73.8% | $-17,506 (vs do-nothing $-15,992) |
| $12.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.78 | 32/50 | $4,405 | $4,459 | 61% | 73% | +$837 | -$19,798 | 91.4% | $-21,344 (vs do-nothing $-19,830) |
| $12 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.04 | 24/50 | $4,405 | $4,483 | 53% | 69% | +$813 | -$15,425 | 71.2% | $-16,962 (vs do-nothing $-15,449) |
| $12 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.80 | 18/50 | $4,320 | $4,416 | 52% | 69% | +$842 | -$12,001 | 55.4% | $-13,532 (vs do-nothing $-12,019) |
| $12 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.52 | 9/50 | $4,680 | $4,803 | 49% | 69% | +$1,163 | -$6,252 | 28.9% | $-7,775 (vs do-nothing $-6,261) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.