50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $24.33 | CC-SS: $18.86 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $56,650 | (ND $4.33 + SW $7) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $7,235/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $1,079/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-25,400 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 3d | 41 × $13.50 | 83% | $3,690 | $1,176 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 10d | 44 × $13.50 | 73% | $3,696 | $437 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $14.50 | 17 Jul | 3d | 17.3% | 93% | 14% | $150 | $1,500 | -$2,190 | $21,637 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $14.50 17.3% OTM over spot $12.36 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.04 mid) = $150 credit for the 3d cycle → $1,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $14.54) 93% EV / mo +$294 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [0.9-3.1] median · 54% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 51% without) · ~4.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,567 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,506 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $17 @ 83% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.47/sh now → $0.33 mid-life (likely $0.28–$0.55) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.03/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 174 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 3, at $15 (overshoots $0.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $4 below CC-SS $18.86: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.03 collected) or spot ≥ $14.54 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.26 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.75 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.86, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,400 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,398 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $14.50): -$21,637 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,639 (+$2,761 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-952 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,687, the opportunity cost of earning $1,500/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.98 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,250, position total $-19,057 (+$6,343 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 48 × $14 | 17 Jul | 3d | 13.3% | 89% | 23% | $240 | $2,400 | -$1,290 | $23,075 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 48 × $14 13.3% OTM over spot $12.36 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.06 mid) = $240 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 89% Breach risk 11% POP (stays ≤ $14.06) 90% EV / mo +$136 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [1.0-4.2] median · 54% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 48% without) · ~8.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,116 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,268 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $17 @ 84% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 48 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.44/sh now → $0.31 mid-life (likely $0.27–$0.54) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.26/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 330 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $14 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $5 below CC-SS $18.86: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $14.06 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.26 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.75 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.86, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,400 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,398 − CC assignment net of premium (48 × $14): -$23,075 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $21): +$2 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,076 (+$1,324 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-952 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,123, the opportunity cost of earning $2,400/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.98 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,264, position total $-21,069 (+$4,331 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 41 × $13.50 | 17 Jul | 3d | 9.2% | 83% | 21% | $369 | $3,690 | — | $21,596 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 41 × $13.50 9.2% OTM over spot $12.36 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.10 mid) = $369 credit for the 3d cycle → $3,690/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $13.60) 84% EV / mo +$271 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.3-4.0] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.3 mo) · 54% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 47% without) · ~13.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,155 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 21% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$851 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 41 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.42/sh now → $0.30 mid-life (likely $0.30–$0.55) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.21/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 618 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $14 (overshoots $0.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $5 below CC-SS $18.86: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $13.60 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.26 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.75 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.86, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,400 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,398 − CC assignment net of premium (41 × $13.50): -$21,596 + Conservative CC premium (9 × $21): +$9 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,590 (+$2,810 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-952 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,637, the opportunity cost of earning $3,690/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.98 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,799, position total $-21,597 (+$3,803 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 41 × $13 | 17 Jul | 3d | 5.2% | 71% | 59% | $738 | $7,380 | +$3,690 | $23,277 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 41 × $13 5.2% OTM over spot $12.36 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.18 mid) = $738 credit for the 3d cycle → $7,380/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13) 71% Breach risk 29% POP (stays ≤ $13.19) 76% EV / mo +$155 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.4 mo [1.3-3.9] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.6 mo) · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 46% without) · ~21.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $13,266 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 39% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$416 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 88% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 41 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.40/sh now → $0.28 mid-life (likely $0.34–$0.60) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.18/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,162 simulated challenges: the $13 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $13 (overshoots $0.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13 is $6 below CC-SS $18.86: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.18 collected) or spot ≥ $13.19 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.26 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.75 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.86, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,400 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,398 − CC assignment net of premium (41 × $13): -$23,277 + Conservative CC premium (9 × $21): +$9 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,271 (+$1,129 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-952 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,318, the opportunity cost of earning $7,380/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.98 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,480, position total $-23,278 (+$2,122 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $15 | 24 Jul | 10d | 21.4% | 90% | 20% | $500 | $1,500 | -$2,196 | $18,787 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $15 21.4% OTM over spot $12.36 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.12 mid) = $500 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $15.12) 91% EV / mo +$581 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.6 mo [1.3-4.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.7 mo) · 46% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 44% without) · ~2.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,872 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,826 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 71% POP 62% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.94/sh now → $0.67 mid-life (likely $0.56–$0.92) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.57/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 416 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $15 (overshoots $0.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $4 below CC-SS $18.86: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $15.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.26 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.75 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.86, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,400 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,398 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $15): -$18,787 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,789 (+$5,611 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-952 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,837, the opportunity cost of earning $1,500/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.98 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,400, position total $-16,207 (+$9,193 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 40 × $14 | 24 Jul | 10d | 13.3% | 80% | 42% | $800 | $2,400 | -$1,296 | $18,629 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 40 × $14 13.3% OTM over spot $12.36 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.23 mid) = $800 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $14.23) 83% EV / mo +$182 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.9 mo [1.3-4.9] median · 54% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 46% without) · ~6.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,077 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,589 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 75% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 40 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.84/sh now → $0.60 mid-life (likely $0.63–$0.93) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.40/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 948 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $14 (overshoots $0.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $5 below CC-SS $18.86: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $14.23 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.26 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.75 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.86, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,400 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,398 − CC assignment net of premium (40 × $14): -$18,629 + Conservative CC premium (10 × $21): +$10 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,622 (+$5,778 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-952 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,669, the opportunity cost of earning $2,400/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.98 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,120, position total $-18,917 (+$6,483 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 44 × $13.50 | 24 Jul | 10d | 9.2% | 73% | 44% | $1,232 | $3,696 | — | $22,340 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 44 × $13.50 9.2% OTM over spot $12.36 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.32 mid) = $1,232 credit for the 10d cycle → $3,696/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $13.82) 78% EV / mo +$22 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.5 mo [1.4-4.5] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.5 mo) · 53% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 45% without) · ~9.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,984 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 44% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,252 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 80% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 44 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.80/sh now → $0.56 mid-life (likely $0.63–$0.93) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.28/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,312 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $14 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $5 below CC-SS $18.86: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.28 collected) or spot ≥ $13.82 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.26 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.75 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.86, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,400 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,398 − CC assignment net of premium (44 × $13.50): -$22,340 + Conservative CC premium (6 × $21): +$6 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,337 (+$2,063 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-952 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,384, the opportunity cost of earning $3,696/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.98 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,680, position total $-21,481 (+$3,919 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 43 × $12.50 | 24 Jul | 10d | 1.1% | 56% | 94% | $2,451 | $7,353 | +$3,657 | $24,886 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 43 × $12.50 1.1% OTM over spot $12.36 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.60 mid) = $2,451 credit for the 10d cycle → $7,353/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12.50) 56% Breach risk 44% POP (stays ≤ $13.11) 67% EV / mo $-365 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.5 mo [1.3-4.4] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.4 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 52% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 41% without) · ~24.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $12,463 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 77% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$294 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 43 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.71/sh now → $0.50 mid-life (likely $0.70–$0.98) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.57/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.07/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,298 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 10, at $13 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12.50 is $6 below CC-SS $18.86: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.57 collected) or spot ≥ $13.11 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.26 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.75 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.86, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,400 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,398 − CC assignment net of premium (43 × $12.50): -$24,886 + Conservative CC premium (7 × $21): +$7 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,881 ($-481 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-952 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-24,929, the opportunity cost of earning $7,353/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.98 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,513, position total $-24,313 (+$1,087 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 9 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.751 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$24,398 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-952
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.09 | 41/50 | $3,690 | $3,717 | 83% | 84% | +$271 | -$21,596 | 99.8% | $-22,590 (vs do-nothing $-21,637) |
| $13.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.28 | 44/50 | $3,696 | $3,714 | 73% | 78% | +$22 | -$22,340 | 103.2% | $-23,337 (vs do-nothing $-22,384) |
| $13 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.18 | 21/50 | $3,780 | $3,867 | 71% | 76% | +$79 | -$11,922 | 55.1% | $-12,896 (vs do-nothing $-11,943) |
| $13.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.46 | 45/50 | $3,653 | $3,668 | 70% | 77% | +$237 | -$22,038 | 101.8% | $-23,036 (vs do-nothing $-22,083) |
| $13 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.40 | 31/50 | $3,720 | $3,777 | 65% | 73% | $-62 | -$16,918 | 78.1% | $-17,901 (vs do-nothing $-16,949) |
| $13 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.61 | 34/50 | $3,660 | $3,708 | 64% | 73% | +$153 | -$17,841 | 82.4% | $-18,827 (vs do-nothing $-17,875) |
| $12.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.31 | 12/50 | $3,720 | $3,834 | 57% | 66% | $-398 | -$7,257 | 33.5% | $-8,221 (vs do-nothing $-7,269) |
| $12.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.82 | 26/50 | $3,762 | $3,834 | 56% | 68% | +$173 | -$14,397 | 66.5% | $-15,376 (vs do-nothing $-14,423) |
| $12.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.57 | 22/50 | $3,762 | $3,846 | 56% | 67% | $-187 | -$12,732 | 58.8% | $-13,707 (vs do-nothing $-12,754) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.