50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $24.33 | CC-SS: $18.80 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $56,650 | (ND $4.33 + SW $7) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $8,812/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $1,000/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-26,775 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 2d | 49 × $13.50 | 94% | $4,410 | $2,745 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 9d | 38 × $13 | 74% | $4,433 | $1,031 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 33 × $13.50 | 17 Jul | 2d | 13.2% | 94% | 11% | $198 | $2,970 | -$1,440 | $17,291 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 33 × $13.50 13.2% OTM over spot $11.93 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.07 mid) = $198 credit for the 2d cycle → $2,970/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $13.56) 95% EV / mo +$2,394 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.4 mo [1.4-4.4] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.3 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 57% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 48% without) · ~5.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,156 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,221 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 86% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 33 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.61/sh now → $0.43 mid-life (likely $0.42–$0.71) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.37/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 144 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $14 (overshoots $0.32). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $5 below CC-SS $18.80: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.06 collected) or spot ≥ $13.56 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.74 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.80, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-26,775 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,453 − CC assignment net of premium (33 × $13.50): -$17,291 + Conservative CC premium (17 × $22): +$34 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,580 (+$8,195 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,222 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,357, the opportunity cost of earning $2,970/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,788, position total $-19,746 (+$7,029 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 49 × $13.50 | 17 Jul | 2d | 13.2% | 94% | 5% | $294 | $4,410 | — | $25,675 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 49 × $13.50 13.2% OTM over spot $11.93 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.07 mid) = $294 credit for the 2d cycle → $4,410/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $13.56) 95% EV / mo +$3,555 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.3-4.3] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.2 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 55% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 42% without) · ~5.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $13,954 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,813 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 86% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 49 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.61/sh now → $0.43 mid-life (likely $0.42–$0.74) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.37/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 158 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $14 (overshoots $0.34). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $5 below CC-SS $18.80: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.06 collected) or spot ≥ $13.56 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.74 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.80, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-26,775 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,453 − CC assignment net of premium (49 × $13.50): -$25,675 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $22): +$2 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,995 ($-220 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,222 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,773, the opportunity cost of earning $4,410/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,564, position total $-23,554 (+$3,221 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $13.50 | 17 Jul | 2d | 13.2% | 94% | 11% | $300 | $4,500 | +$90 | $26,199 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $13.50 13.2% OTM over spot $11.93 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.07 mid) = $300 credit for the 2d cycle → $4,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $13.56) 95% EV / mo +$3,628 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.2 mo [1.2-4.0] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.3 mo) · 57% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 42% without) · ~5.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $13,443 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,850 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 86% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.61/sh now → $0.43 mid-life (likely $0.45–$0.82) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.37/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 176 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $14 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $5 below CC-SS $18.80: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.06 collected) or spot ≥ $13.56 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.74 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.80, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-26,775 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,453 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $13.50): -$26,199 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,521 ($-746 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,222 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,299, the opportunity cost of earning $4,500/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,800, position total $-23,792 (+$2,983 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 46 × $13 | 17 Jul | 2d | 9.0% | 87% | 26% | $598 | $8,970 | +$4,560 | $26,081 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 46 × $13 9.0% OTM over spot $11.93 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.14 mid) = $598 credit for the 2d cycle → $8,970/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $13.13) 90% EV / mo +$6,361 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.4 mo [1.4-4.3] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.6 mo) · 73% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 40% without) · ~10.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $20,689 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,271 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 46 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.57/sh now → $0.41 mid-life (likely $0.43–$0.77) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 425 simulated challenges: the $13 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $13 (overshoots $0.35). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13 is $6 below CC-SS $18.80: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $13.13 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.74 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.80, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-26,775 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,453 − CC assignment net of premium (46 × $13): -$26,081 + Conservative CC premium (4 × $22): +$8 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,395 ($-620 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,222 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,173, the opportunity cost of earning $8,970/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,834, position total $-24,818 (+$1,957 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $14.50 | 24 Jul | 9d | 21.5% | 91% | 19% | $600 | $2,000 | -$2,433 | $20,899 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $14.50 21.5% OTM over spot $11.93 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.12 mid) = $600 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $14.62) 92% EV / mo +$1,086 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.0 mo [1.7-5.0] median · 49% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 42% without) · ~2.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,806 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,215 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 76% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.08/sh now → $0.76 mid-life (likely $0.57–$1.07) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.64/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 325 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $15 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $4 below CC-SS $18.80: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $14.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.74 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.80, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-26,775 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,453 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $14.50): -$20,899 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,221 (+$4,554 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,222 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,999, the opportunity cost of earning $2,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,500, position total $-18,492 (+$8,283 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 35 × $13.50 | 24 Jul | 9d | 13.2% | 82% | 38% | $875 | $2,917 | -$1,517 | $17,674 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 35 × $13.50 13.2% OTM over spot $11.93 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.27 mid) = $875 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,917/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $13.77) 85% EV / mo +$1,252 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.7 mo [1.6-4.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.8 mo) · 49% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 41% without) · ~6.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,244 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 29% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,512 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 77% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 35 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.96/sh now → $0.68 mid-life (likely $0.71–$1.06) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.43/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 865 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $14 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $5 below CC-SS $18.80: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $13.77 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.74 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.80, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-26,775 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,453 − CC assignment net of premium (35 × $13.50): -$17,674 + Conservative CC premium (15 × $22): +$30 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,967 (+$7,808 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,222 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,744, the opportunity cost of earning $2,917/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,595, position total $-19,557 (+$7,218 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 38 × $13 | 24 Jul | 9d | 9.0% | 74% | 42% | $1,330 | $4,433 | — | $20,709 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 38 × $13 9.0% OTM over spot $11.93 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.39 mid) = $1,330 credit for the 9d cycle → $4,433/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13) 74% Breach risk 26% POP (stays ≤ $13.38) 80% EV / mo +$1,477 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.6 mo [1.5-5.1] median · 52% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 42% without) · ~9.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $11,886 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 42% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,114 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 38 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.91/sh now → $0.64 mid-life (likely $0.74–$1.06) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,253 simulated challenges: the $13 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 9, at $13 (overshoots $0.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13 is $6 below CC-SS $18.80: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.35 collected) or spot ≥ $13.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.74 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.80, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-26,775 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,453 − CC assignment net of premium (38 × $13): -$20,709 + Conservative CC premium (12 × $22): +$24 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,008 (+$4,767 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,222 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,785, the opportunity cost of earning $4,433/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,766, position total $-21,734 (+$5,041 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 38 × $12 | 24 Jul | 9d | 0.6% | 55% | 97% | $2,698 | $8,993 | +$4,560 | $23,141 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 38 × $12 0.6% OTM over spot $11.93 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.73 mid) = $2,698 credit for the 9d cycle → $8,993/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12) 55% Breach risk 45% POP (stays ≤ $12.73) 70% EV / mo +$1,809 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.6 mo [1.5-4.5] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.5 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 54% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 40% without) · ~28.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $14,772 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 78% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$537 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 92% POP 92% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 38 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.80/sh now → $0.57 mid-life (likely $0.80–$1.14) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.71/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.14/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,337 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 9, at $12 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12 is $7 below CC-SS $18.80: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.18/sh (~25% of the $0.71 collected) or spot ≥ $12.73 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.74 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.80, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-26,775 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,453 − CC assignment net of premium (38 × $12): -$23,141 + Conservative CC premium (12 × $22): +$24 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,440 (+$2,335 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,222 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,217, the opportunity cost of earning $8,993/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.92 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,198, position total $-24,166 (+$2,609 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 10 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.741 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$25,453 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,222
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13.50 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.06 | 49/50 | $4,410 | $4,414 | 94% | 95% | +$3,555 | -$25,675 | 118.6% | $-26,995 (vs do-nothing $-25,773) |
| $13 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.13 | 23/50 | $4,485 | $4,586 | 87% | 90% | +$3,181 | -$13,040 | 60.2% | $-14,309 (vs do-nothing $-13,086) |
| $13 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.35 | 38/50 | $4,433 | $4,478 | 74% | 80% | +$1,477 | -$20,709 | 95.7% | $-22,008 (vs do-nothing $-20,785) |
| $12.50 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.25 | 12/50 | $4,500 | $4,642 | 74% | 82% | +$2,477 | -$7,260 | 33.5% | $-8,506 (vs do-nothing $-7,284) |
| $13 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.54 | 44/50 | $4,455 | $4,478 | 71% | 78% | +$1,248 | -$23,143 | 106.9% | $-24,453 (vs do-nothing $-23,231) |
| $12.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.52 | 26/50 | $4,507 | $4,597 | 65% | 75% | +$1,293 | -$15,027 | 69.4% | $-16,302 (vs do-nothing $-15,079) |
| $12.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.71 | 34/50 | $4,526 | $4,586 | 63% | 74% | +$1,055 | -$19,005 | 87.8% | $-20,296 (vs do-nothing $-19,073) |
| $12 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.94 | 25/50 | $4,406 | $4,500 | 55% | 70% | +$896 | -$14,649 | 67.7% | $-15,922 (vs do-nothing $-14,699) |
| $12 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.44 | 7/50 | $4,620 | $4,781 | 55% | 72% | +$1,700 | -$4,452 | 20.6% | $-5,688 (vs do-nothing $-4,466) |
| $12 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.71 | 19/50 | $4,497 | $4,613 | 55% | 70% | +$905 | -$11,571 | 53.4% | $-12,831 (vs do-nothing $-11,609) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.