50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $24.33 | CC-SS: $19.18 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $56,650 | (ND $4.33 + SW $7) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $7,596/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $973/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-27,400 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 2d | 29 × $13.50 | 94% | $3,915 | $2,725 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 9d | 38 × $13.50 | 78% | $3,800 | $776 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 42 × $14 | 17 Jul | 2d | 14.9% | 98% | 4% | $168 | $2,520 | -$1,395 | $21,571 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 42 × $14 14.9% OTM over spot $12.18 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.04 mid) = $168 credit for the 2d cycle → $2,520/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $14.04) 98% EV / mo +$2,396 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.8 mo [1.6-4.9] median · 45% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 40% without) · ~1.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,182 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 2% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,694 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $15 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 42 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.63/sh now → $0.44 mid-life (likely $0.45–$0.94) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.40/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 51 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $14 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $5 below CC-SS $19.18: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.04 collected) or spot ≥ $14.04 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.30 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.74 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.18, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-27,400 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,991 − CC assignment net of premium (42 × $14): -$21,571 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (8 × $18.50): -$533 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,513 (+$3,887 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,739 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,774, the opportunity cost of earning $2,520/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.94 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,980, position total $-21,403 (+$5,997 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 29 × $13.50 | 17 Jul | 2d | 10.8% | 94% | 7% | $261 | $3,915 | — | $16,200 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 29 × $13.50 10.8% OTM over spot $12.18 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.10 mid) = $261 credit for the 2d cycle → $3,915/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $13.60) 95% EV / mo +$3,437 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.8 mo [1.6-4.8] median · 54% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 42% without) · ~6.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,493 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$953 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $15 @ 81% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 29 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.59/sh now → $0.42 mid-life (likely $0.44–$0.79) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.33/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 196 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $14 (overshoots $0.34). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $6 below CC-SS $19.18: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $13.60 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.30 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.74 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.18, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-27,400 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,991 − CC assignment net of premium (29 × $13.50): -$16,200 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (21 × $18.50): -$1,399 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,007 (+$8,393 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,739 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,268, the opportunity cost of earning $3,915/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.94 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,815, position total $-20,225 (+$7,175 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $13.50 | 17 Jul | 2d | 10.8% | 94% | 12% | $450 | $6,750 | +$2,835 | $27,930 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $13.50 10.8% OTM over spot $12.18 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.10 mid) = $450 credit for the 2d cycle → $6,750/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $13.60) 95% EV / mo +$5,926 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.8 mo [1.5-4.7] median · 54% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 38% without) · ~6.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $14,370 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,643 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $15 @ 81% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.59/sh now → $0.42 mid-life (likely $0.43–$0.83) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.33/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 220 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $14 (overshoots $0.34). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $6 below CC-SS $19.18: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $13.60 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.30 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.74 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.18, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-27,400 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,991 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $13.50): -$27,930 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-29,339 ($-1,939 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,739 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-24,600, the opportunity cost of earning $6,750/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.94 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,750, position total $-25,181 (+$2,219 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 27 × $13 | 17 Jul | 2d | 6.7% | 84% | 33% | $513 | $7,695 | +$3,780 | $16,162 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 27 × $13 6.7% OTM over spot $12.18 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.20 mid) = $513 credit for the 2d cycle → $7,695/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $13.20) 89% EV / mo +$5,794 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.8 mo [1.5-4.5] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.7 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 42% without) · ~15.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $17,347 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 18% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$552 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 88% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 27 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.56/sh now → $0.39 mid-life (likely $0.44–$0.83) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.20/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 541 simulated challenges: the $13 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $13 (overshoots $0.34). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13 is $6 below CC-SS $19.18: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.19 collected) or spot ≥ $13.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.30 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.74 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.18, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-27,400 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,991 − CC assignment net of premium (27 × $13): -$16,162 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (23 × $18.50): -$1,532 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,103 (+$8,297 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,739 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,364, the opportunity cost of earning $7,695/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.94 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,425, position total $-20,833 (+$6,567 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $15 | 24 Jul | 9d | 23.2% | 92% | 16% | $300 | $1,000 | -$2,800 | $20,580 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $15 23.2% OTM over spot $12.18 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.11 mid) = $300 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $15.11) 93% EV / mo +$253 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.7 mo [1.6-5.3] median · 46% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 42% without) · ~2.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,177 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,794 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 74% POP 65% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.16/sh now → $0.82 mid-life (likely $0.67–$1.06) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.76/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 288 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $15 (overshoots $0.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $4 below CC-SS $19.18: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.06 collected) or spot ≥ $15.11 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.30 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.74 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.18, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-27,400 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,991 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $15): -$20,580 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,989 (+$5,411 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,739 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,250, the opportunity cost of earning $1,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.94 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,400, position total $-17,831 (+$9,569 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 35 × $14 | 24 Jul | 9d | 14.9% | 84% | 33% | $770 | $2,567 | -$1,233 | $17,346 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 35 × $14 14.9% OTM over spot $12.18 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.23 mid) = $770 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,567/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $14.22) 87% EV / mo +$1,232 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.5-4.4] median · 55% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 46% without) · ~5.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,373 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,799 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 74% POP 66% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 35 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.04/sh now → $0.73 mid-life (likely $0.67–$1.08) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 732 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $14 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $5 below CC-SS $19.18: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.22 collected) or spot ≥ $14.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.30 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.74 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.18, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-27,400 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,991 − CC assignment net of premium (35 × $14): -$17,346 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (15 × $18.50): -$999 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,754 (+$7,646 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,739 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,015, the opportunity cost of earning $2,567/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.94 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,020, position total $-19,436 (+$7,964 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 38 × $13.50 | 24 Jul | 9d | 10.8% | 78% | 34% | $1,140 | $3,800 | — | $20,429 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 38 × $13.50 10.8% OTM over spot $12.18 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.32 mid) = $1,140 credit for the 9d cycle → $3,800/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $13.82) 82% EV / mo +$1,458 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.4 mo [1.5-3.8] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.5 mo) · 48% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 42% without) · ~7.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,681 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,495 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $14 @ 75% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 38 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.98/sh now → $0.69 mid-life (likely $0.74–$1.11) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.39/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,033 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $14 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $6 below CC-SS $19.18: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.30 collected) or spot ≥ $13.82 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.30 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.74 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.18, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-27,400 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,991 − CC assignment net of premium (38 × $13.50): -$20,429 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (12 × $18.50): -$799 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,637 (+$4,763 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,739 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,898, the opportunity cost of earning $3,800/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.94 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,132, position total $-21,551 (+$5,849 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 38 × $12.50 | 24 Jul | 9d | 2.6% | 60% | 85% | $2,280 | $7,600 | +$3,800 | $23,089 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 38 × $12.50 2.6% OTM over spot $12.18 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.67 mid) = $2,280 credit for the 9d cycle → $7,600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12.50) 60% Breach risk 40% POP (stays ≤ $13.16) 73% EV / mo +$1,762 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.0 mo [1.5-4.8] median · 52% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 38% without) · ~21.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $14,177 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 68% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$58 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 38 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.87/sh now → $0.62 mid-life (likely $0.83–$1.15) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,049 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $13 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12.50 is $7 below CC-SS $19.18: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.60 collected) or spot ≥ $13.16 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.30 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.74 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.18, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-27,400 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,991 − CC assignment net of premium (38 × $12.50): -$23,089 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (12 × $18.50): -$799 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,297 (+$2,103 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,739 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,558, the opportunity cost of earning $7,600/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.94 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,792, position total $-24,211 (+$3,189 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 11 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.743 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$25,991 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-4,739
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13.50 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.09 | 29/50 | $3,915 | $3,954 | 94% | 95% | +$3,437 | -$16,200 | 74.8% | $-19,007 (vs do-nothing $-14,268) |
| $13 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.19 | 14/50 | $3,990 | $4,058 | 84% | 89% | +$3,005 | -$8,380 | 38.7% | $-12,187 (vs do-nothing $-7,448) |
| $13.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.30 | 38/50 | $3,800 | $3,822 | 78% | 82% | +$1,458 | -$20,429 | 94.4% | $-22,637 (vs do-nothing $-17,898) |
| $13 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.43 | 27/50 | $3,870 | $3,913 | 70% | 78% | +$1,208 | -$15,514 | 71.7% | $-18,455 (vs do-nothing $-13,716) |
| $13 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.61 | 34/50 | $3,889 | $3,919 | 67% | 76% | +$957 | -$18,925 | 87.4% | $-21,399 (vs do-nothing $-16,660) |
| $12.50 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.36 | 8/50 | $4,320 | $4,399 | 66% | 80% | +$2,495 | -$5,053 | 23.3% | $-9,259 (vs do-nothing $-4,520) |
| $12.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.60 | 19/50 | $3,800 | $3,858 | 60% | 73% | +$881 | -$11,545 | 53.3% | $-15,018 (vs do-nothing $-10,279) |
| $12.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.74 | 28/50 | $3,885 | $3,926 | 59% | 72% | +$526 | -$16,621 | 76.8% | $-19,495 (vs do-nothing $-14,756) |
| $12 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.99 | 21/50 | $3,898 | $3,952 | 51% | 68% | +$465 | -$12,991 | 60.0% | $-16,331 (vs do-nothing $-11,592) |
| $12 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.92 | 13/50 | $3,987 | $4,056 | 49% | 69% | +$994 | -$8,133 | 37.6% | $-12,006 (vs do-nothing $-7,267) |
| $12 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.63 | 5/50 | $4,725 | $4,809 | 43% | 72% | +$1,895 | -$3,273 | 15.1% | $-7,679 (vs do-nothing $-2,940) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.