50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $24.33 | CC-SS: $19.29 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $56,650 | (ND $4.33 + SW $7) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $7,700/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $975/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-27,775 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 8d | 43 × $13.50 | 80% | $3,870 | $868 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $14.50 | 24 Jul | 8d | 18.8% | 91% | 20% | $500 | $1,875 | -$1,995 | $23,458 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $14.50 18.8% OTM over spot $12.21 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.11 mid) = $500 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,875/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $14.61) 91% EV / mo +$942 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.5 mo [1.3-4.8] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.4 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 44% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 40% without) · ~3.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,372 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,775 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 74% POP 66% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.93/sh now → $0.65 mid-life (likely $0.58–$0.95) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 385 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $15 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $5 below CC-SS $19.29: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $14.61 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.74 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.29, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-27,775 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,308 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $14.50): -$23,458 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,925 (+$2,850 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,367 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,558, the opportunity cost of earning $1,875/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.93 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,650, position total $-20,605 (+$7,170 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 43 × $14 | 24 Jul | 8d | 14.7% | 86% | 29% | $688 | $2,580 | -$1,290 | $22,066 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 43 × $14 14.7% OTM over spot $12.21 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.17 mid) = $688 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,580/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $14.17) 88% EV / mo +$1,183 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.7 mo [1.6-4.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.8 mo) · 46% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 40% without) · ~5.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,321 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 19% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,976 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 75% POP 66% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 43 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.88/sh now → $0.62 mid-life (likely $0.58–$0.95) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 574 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $14 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $5 below CC-SS $19.29: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.16 collected) or spot ≥ $14.17 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.74 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.29, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-27,775 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,308 − CC assignment net of premium (43 × $14): -$22,066 + Conservative CC premium (7 × $22): +$14 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,519 (+$4,256 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,367 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,152, the opportunity cost of earning $2,580/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.93 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,611, position total $-21,552 (+$6,223 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 43 × $13.50 | 24 Jul | 8d | 10.6% | 80% | 32% | $1,032 | $3,870 | — | $23,872 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 43 × $13.50 10.6% OTM over spot $12.21 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.26 mid) = $1,032 credit for the 8d cycle → $3,870/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $13.76) 84% EV / mo +$1,599 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.8 mo [1.8-4.5] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.0 mo) · 50% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 40% without) · ~7.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $11,718 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,483 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 43 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.83/sh now → $0.58 mid-life (likely $0.61–$0.93) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.24/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.34/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 955 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $14 (overshoots $0.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $6 below CC-SS $19.29: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.24 collected) or spot ≥ $13.76 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.74 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.29, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-27,775 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,308 − CC assignment net of premium (43 × $13.50): -$23,872 + Conservative CC premium (7 × $22): +$14 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,325 (+$2,450 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,367 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,958, the opportunity cost of earning $3,870/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.93 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,417, position total $-23,358 (+$4,417 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 39 × $12.50 | 24 Jul | 8d | 2.4% | 60% | 85% | $2,106 | $7,898 | +$4,028 | $24,382 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 39 × $12.50 2.4% OTM over spot $12.21 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.56 mid) = $2,106 credit for the 8d cycle → $7,898/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12.50) 60% Breach risk 40% POP (stays ≤ $13.06) 72% EV / mo +$1,861 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.7 mo [2.1-5.7] median, 0.3 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.5 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 50% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 34% without) · ~23.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $15,988 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 68% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$84 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 39 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.73/sh now → $0.52 mid-life (likely $0.70–$0.98) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.54/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,040 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $13 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12.50 is $7 below CC-SS $19.29: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.54 collected) or spot ≥ $13.06 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.74 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.29, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-27,775 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,308 − CC assignment net of premium (39 × $12.50): -$24,382 + Conservative CC premium (11 × $22): +$22 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,826 (+$1,949 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,367 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-24,460, the opportunity cost of earning $7,898/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.93 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,271, position total $-25,204 (+$2,571 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (2 expiries scanned, 7 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.743 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$26,308 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,367
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.24 | 43/50 | $3,870 | $3,898 | 80% | 84% | +$1,599 | -$23,872 | 110.3% | $-25,325 (vs do-nothing $-23,958) |
| $13 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.37 | 28/50 | $3,885 | $3,973 | 71% | 78% | +$1,278 | -$16,581 | 76.6% | $-18,003 (vs do-nothing $-16,637) |
| $13 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.57 | 34/50 | $3,876 | $3,940 | 67% | 76% | +$996 | -$19,454 | 89.9% | $-20,888 (vs do-nothing $-19,522) |
| $12.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.54 | 20/50 | $4,050 | $4,170 | 60% | 72% | +$955 | -$12,503 | 57.8% | $-13,910 (vs do-nothing $-12,543) |
| $12.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.74 | 27/50 | $3,996 | $4,088 | 59% | 72% | +$732 | -$16,340 | 75.5% | $-17,760 (vs do-nothing $-16,394) |
| $12 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.98 | 20/50 | $3,920 | $4,040 | 50% | 67% | +$555 | -$12,623 | 58.3% | $-14,030 (vs do-nothing $-12,663) |
| $12 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.77 | 14/50 | $4,042 | $4,186 | 48% | 66% | +$568 | -$9,130 | 42.2% | $-10,525 (vs do-nothing $-9,158) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.