50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $24.33 | CC-SS: $19.39 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $56,650 | (ND $4.33 + SW $7) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $9,400/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $975/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-28,100 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 8d | 49 × $13.50 | 82% | $4,778 | $1,451 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $14.50 | 24 Jul | 8d | 19.9% | 92% | 17% | $600 | $2,250 | -$2,528 | $23,830 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $14.50 19.9% OTM over spot $12.09 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.13 mid) = $600 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $14.63) 93% EV / mo +$1,507 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.2 mo [1.3-4.2] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.1 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 51% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 44% without) · ~2.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,732 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,195 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $16 @ 77% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.07/sh now → $0.76 mid-life (likely $0.61–$1.06) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.64/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 316 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $15 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $5 below CC-SS $19.39: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $14.63 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.39, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,100 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,832 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $14.50): -$23,830 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,098 (+$9,002 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $4,832 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,930, the opportunity cost of earning $2,250/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.95 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,650, position total $-17,380 (+$10,720 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 32 × $13.50 | 24 Jul | 8d | 11.7% | 82% | 38% | $832 | $3,120 | -$1,658 | $18,004 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 32 × $13.50 11.7% OTM over spot $12.09 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.28 mid) = $832 credit for the 8d cycle → $3,120/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $13.78) 85% EV / mo +$1,627 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.6 mo [1.3-4.2] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.4 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 53% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 44% without) · ~6.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,177 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 29% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,335 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $16 @ 84% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 32 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.96/sh now → $0.68 mid-life (likely $0.69–$1.07) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 876 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $14 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $6 below CC-SS $19.39: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.26 collected) or spot ≥ $13.78 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.39, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,100 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,832 − CC assignment net of premium (32 × $13.50): -$18,004 + Conservative CC premium (18 × $22): +$36 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,235 (+$14,865 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $4,832 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,068, the opportunity cost of earning $3,120/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.95 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,008, position total $-17,702 (+$10,398 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 49 × $13.50 | 24 Jul | 8d | 11.7% | 82% | 27% | $1,274 | $4,778 | — | $27,568 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 49 × $13.50 11.7% OTM over spot $12.09 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.28 mid) = $1,274 credit for the 8d cycle → $4,778/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $13.78) 85% EV / mo +$2,491 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.4-4.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.4 mo) · 57% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 48% without) · ~6.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $13,820 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 27% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,044 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $16 @ 84% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 49 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.96/sh now → $0.68 mid-life (likely $0.68–$1.06) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 802 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $14 (overshoots $0.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $6 below CC-SS $19.39: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.26 collected) or spot ≥ $13.78 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.39, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,100 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,832 − CC assignment net of premium (49 × $13.50): -$27,568 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $22): +$2 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,833 (+$5,267 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $4,832 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-27,666, the opportunity cost of earning $4,778/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.95 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,731, position total $-21,459 (+$6,641 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 43 × $12.50 | 24 Jul | 8d | 3.4% | 63% | 79% | $2,537 | $9,514 | +$4,736 | $27,073 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 43 × $12.50 3.4% OTM over spot $12.09 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.59 mid) = $2,537 credit for the 8d cycle → $9,514/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12.50) 63% Breach risk 37% POP (stays ≤ $13.10) 75% EV / mo +$3,623 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.5 mo [1.3-4.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.7 mo) · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 46% without) · ~17.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $16,540 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 63% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$42 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $16 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 43 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.85/sh now → $0.60 mid-life (likely $0.79–$1.08) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.59/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.01/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,900 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $13 (overshoots $0.35). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12.50 is $7 below CC-SS $19.39: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.59 collected) or spot ≥ $13.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.39, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,100 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,832 − CC assignment net of premium (43 × $12.50): -$27,073 + Conservative CC premium (7 × $22): +$14 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,327 (+$5,773 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $4,832 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-27,159, the opportunity cost of earning $9,514/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.95 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,298, position total $-23,014 (+$5,086 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 10 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$32,832 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $4,832
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.26 | 49/50 | $4,778 | $4,782 | 82% | 85% | +$2,491 | -$27,568 | 127.3% | $-22,833 (vs do-nothing $-27,666) |
| $13 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.40 | 32/50 | $4,800 | $4,872 | 73% | 80% | +$2,167 | -$19,156 | 88.5% | $-14,387 (vs do-nothing $-19,220) |
| $13 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.61 | 39/50 | $4,758 | $4,802 | 69% | 78% | +$1,662 | -$22,527 | 104.0% | $-17,772 (vs do-nothing $-22,605) |
| $13 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.85 | 41/50 | $4,752 | $4,788 | 67% | 76% | +$1,480 | -$22,698 | 104.8% | $-17,948 (vs do-nothing $-22,780) |
| $12.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.59 | 22/50 | $4,868 | $4,980 | 63% | 75% | +$1,853 | -$13,851 | 64.0% | $-9,063 (vs do-nothing $-13,895) |
| $12.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.80 | 30/50 | $4,800 | $4,880 | 61% | 74% | +$1,459 | -$18,258 | 84.3% | $-13,486 (vs do-nothing $-18,318) |
| $12.50 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.05 | 33/50 | $4,725 | $4,793 | 60% | 74% | +$1,309 | -$19,259 | 89.0% | $-14,493 (vs do-nothing $-19,325) |
| $12 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.28 | 27/50 | $4,713 | $4,805 | 53% | 71% | +$1,126 | -$16,486 | 76.1% | $-11,708 (vs do-nothing $-16,540) |
| $12 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.03 | 23/50 | $4,738 | $4,846 | 52% | 70% | +$1,129 | -$14,619 | 67.5% | $-9,833 (vs do-nothing $-14,665) |
| $12 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.82 | 16/50 | $4,920 | $5,056 | 50% | 70% | +$1,416 | -$10,506 | 48.5% | $-5,705 (vs do-nothing $-10,538) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.