50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $24.33 | CC-SS: $19.23 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $56,650 | (ND $4.33 + SW $7) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $8,800/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $975/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-28,150 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 8d | 34 × $13 | 74% | $4,462 | $1,071 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $14.50 | 24 Jul | 8d | 20.5% | 92% | 17% | $350 | $1,312 | -$3,150 | $23,294 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $14.50 20.5% OTM over spot $12.03 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.11 mid) = $350 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,312/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $14.61) 92% EV / mo +$517 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.4 mo [1.4-4.9] median · 42% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 40% without) · ~3.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,378 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,405 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 71% POP 61% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.06/sh now → $0.75 mid-life (likely $0.60–$1.05) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.68/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 327 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $15 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $5 below CC-SS $19.23: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.07 collected) or spot ≥ $14.61 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.74 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.23, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,635 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $14.50): -$23,294 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,808 (+$3,342 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,415 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,394, the opportunity cost of earning $1,312/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.95 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,900, position total $-20,546 (+$7,604 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 36 × $13.50 | 24 Jul | 8d | 12.2% | 82% | 38% | $792 | $2,970 | -$1,492 | $19,831 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 36 × $13.50 12.2% OTM over spot $12.03 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.25 mid) = $792 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,970/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $13.75) 85% EV / mo +$1,231 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.4 mo [1.5-4.2] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.6 mo) · 50% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 42% without) · ~7.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,465 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,623 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $14 @ 76% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 36 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.95/sh now → $0.67 mid-life (likely $0.67–$1.06) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.45/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 847 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $14 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $6 below CC-SS $19.23: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.22 collected) or spot ≥ $13.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.74 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.23, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,635 − CC assignment net of premium (36 × $13.50): -$19,831 + Conservative CC premium (14 × $20): +$28 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,318 (+$6,832 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,415 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,903, the opportunity cost of earning $2,970/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.95 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,028, position total $-21,646 (+$6,504 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 34 × $13 | 24 Jul | 8d | 8.1% | 74% | 42% | $1,190 | $4,462 | — | $19,988 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 34 × $13 8.1% OTM over spot $12.03 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.35 mid) = $1,190 credit for the 8d cycle → $4,462/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13) 74% Breach risk 26% POP (stays ≤ $13.36) 80% EV / mo +$1,652 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.0 mo [1.5-5.0] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.1 mo) · 51% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 41% without) · ~11.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $11,961 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 42% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$960 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $15 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 34 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.89/sh now → $0.63 mid-life (likely $0.73–$1.06) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,262 simulated challenges: the $13 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $13 (overshoots $0.36). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13 is $6 below CC-SS $19.23: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.35 collected) or spot ≥ $13.36 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.74 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.23, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,635 − CC assignment net of premium (34 × $13): -$19,988 + Conservative CC premium (16 × $20): +$32 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,470 (+$6,680 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,415 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,056, the opportunity cost of earning $4,462/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.95 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,840, position total $-22,454 (+$5,696 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 48 × $12.50 | 24 Jul | 8d | 3.9% | 64% | 76% | $2,352 | $8,820 | +$4,358 | $29,946 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 48 × $12.50 3.9% OTM over spot $12.03 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.52 mid) = $2,352 credit for the 8d cycle → $8,820/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12.50) 64% Breach risk 36% POP (stays ≤ $13.02) 74% EV / mo +$2,273 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.1 mo [1.8-5.4] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.9 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 39% without) · ~18.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $17,873 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 60% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$504 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $16 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 48 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.84/sh now → $0.59 mid-life (likely $0.76–$1.07) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.49/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,789 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $13 (overshoots $0.36). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12.50 is $7 below CC-SS $19.23: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.49 collected) or spot ≥ $13.02 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.74 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.23, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-28,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,635 − CC assignment net of premium (48 × $12.50): -$29,946 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $20): +$4 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-31,457 ($-3,307 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,415 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-30,042, the opportunity cost of earning $8,820/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.95 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$14,208, position total $-27,850 (+$300 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 8 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.740 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$26,635 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,415
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.35 | 34/50 | $4,462 | $4,526 | 74% | 80% | +$1,652 | -$19,988 | 92.3% | $-21,470 (vs do-nothing $-20,056) |
| $13 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.47 | 47/50 | $4,418 | $4,430 | 70% | 77% | +$959 | -$27,066 | 125.0% | $-28,575 (vs do-nothing $-27,160) |
| $12.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.49 | 24/50 | $4,410 | $4,514 | 64% | 74% | +$1,137 | -$14,973 | 69.2% | $-16,436 (vs do-nothing $-15,021) |
| $12.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.63 | 35/50 | $4,410 | $4,470 | 62% | 74% | +$668 | -$21,346 | 98.6% | $-22,830 (vs do-nothing $-21,416) |
| $12.50 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.65 | 50/50 | $4,432 | $4,432 | 61% | 73% | $-552 | -$30,394 | 140.4% | $-31,908 (vs do-nothing $-30,494) |
| $12 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.99 | 33/50 | $4,455 | $4,523 | 54% | 70% | +$218 | -$20,588 | 95.1% | $-22,069 (vs do-nothing $-20,654) |
| $12 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.91 | 25/50 | $4,550 | $4,650 | 53% | 70% | +$769 | -$15,797 | 73.0% | $-17,262 (vs do-nothing $-15,847) |
| $12 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.70 | 17/50 | $4,462 | $4,594 | 52% | 69% | +$818 | -$11,099 | 51.3% | $-12,548 (vs do-nothing $-11,133) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.