50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $24.33 | CC-SS: $19.18 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $56,650 | (ND $4.33 + SW $7) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $8,571/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $990/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-29,900 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 7d | 39 × $12.50 | 76% | $4,346 | $1,222 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $13.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | 17.5% | 91% | 20% | +8pp | $500 | $2,143 | -$2,203 | $27,901 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $13.50 17.5% OTM over spot $11.48 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.11 mid) = $500 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,143/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $13.61) 92% EV / mo +$1,221 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 46% whole by 9mo vs 38% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,368/mo median; plan ~$930/mo after 68% keep · $8,964 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.2 mo [2.1-5.0], measured ONLY among the 46% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,397 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $17 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.82/sh now → $0.58 mid-life (likely $0.50–$0.85) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 370 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $14 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $6 below CC-SS $19.18: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $13.61 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.25 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.73 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.18, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,049 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $13.50): -$27,901 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-29,752 (+$148 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,801 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-27,951, the opportunity cost of earning $2,143/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.89 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,450, position total $-25,294 (+$4,606 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 42 × $13 | 24 Jul | 7d | 13.2% | 85% | 31% | +9pp | $672 | $2,880 | -$1,466 | $25,284 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 42 × $13 13.2% OTM over spot $11.48 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.17 mid) = $672 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,880/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $13.16) 87% EV / mo +$1,420 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 50% whole by 9mo vs 42% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,574/mo median; plan ~$1,070/mo after 68% keep · $10,295 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.5 mo [2.2-5.3], measured ONLY among the 50% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,622 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $17 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 42 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.77/sh now → $0.55 mid-life (likely $0.53–$0.90) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.39/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 671 simulated challenges: the $13 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $13 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13 is $6 below CC-SS $19.18: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.16 collected) or spot ≥ $13.16 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.25 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.73 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.18, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,049 − CC assignment net of premium (42 × $13): -$25,284 + Conservative CC premium (8 × $22): +$8 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,128 (+$2,772 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,801 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,326, the opportunity cost of earning $2,880/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.89 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,466, position total $-25,302 (+$4,598 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 39 × $12.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | 8.8% | 76% | 36% | +12pp | $1,014 | $4,346 | — | $25,038 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 39 × $12.50 8.8% OTM over spot $11.48 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.27 mid) = $1,014 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,346/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12.50) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $12.77) 81% EV / mo +$1,500 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 48% whole by 9mo vs 36% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,849/mo median; plan ~$1,257/mo after 68% keep · $12,638 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.4 mo [1.8-5.1], measured ONLY among the 48% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 36% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$990 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $17 @ 89% POP 88% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 39 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.73/sh now → $0.51 mid-life (likely $0.56–$0.87) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.25/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,091 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $13 (overshoots $0.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12.50 is $7 below CC-SS $19.18: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.26 collected) or spot ≥ $12.77 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.25 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.73 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.18, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,049 − CC assignment net of premium (39 × $12.50): -$25,038 + Conservative CC premium (11 × $22): +$11 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,879 (+$3,021 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,801 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,077, the opportunity cost of earning $4,346/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.89 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,207, position total $-26,040 (+$3,860 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 50 × $12 | 24 Jul | 7d | 4.5% | 66% | 72% | +20pp | $2,000 | $8,571 | +$4,226 | $33,901 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $12 4.5% OTM over spot $11.48 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.42 mid) = $2,000 credit for the 7d cycle → $8,571/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12) 66% Breach risk 34% POP (stays ≤ $12.41) 75% EV / mo +$2,100 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +20pp 56% whole by 9mo vs 35% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~6.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,832/mo median; plan ~$1,926/mo after 68% keep · $16,834 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.1 mo [1.8-5.0], measured ONLY among the 56% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 57% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$412 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $16 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.68/sh now → $0.48 mid-life (likely $0.60–$0.88) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.08/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,718 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $12 (overshoots $0.35). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12 is $7 below CC-SS $19.18: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.40 collected) or spot ≥ $12.41 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.25 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.73 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.18, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,049 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $12): -$33,901 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-35,752 ($-5,852 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,801 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-33,951, the opportunity cost of earning $8,571/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.89 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$17,450, position total $-31,294 ($-1,394 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 12 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.729 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$28,049 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,801
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $12.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.26 | 39/50 | $4,346 | $4,369 | 76% | 81% | +$1,500 | -$25,038 | 115.7% | $-26,879 (vs do-nothing $-25,077) |
| $12.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.45 | 45/50 | $4,339 | $4,350 | 71% | 78% | +$1,222 | -$28,035 | 129.5% | $-29,882 (vs do-nothing $-28,080) |
| $12.50 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.69 | 44/50 | $4,337 | $4,350 | 69% | 77% | +$1,186 | -$26,356 | 121.7% | $-28,202 (vs do-nothing $-26,400) |
| $12.50 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.83 | 49/50 | $4,357 | $4,360 | 67% | 76% | +$992 | -$28,665 | 132.4% | $-30,516 (vs do-nothing $-28,714) |
| $12 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.40 | 25/50 | $4,286 | $4,339 | 66% | 75% | +$1,050 | -$16,950 | 78.3% | $-18,777 (vs do-nothing $-16,975) |
| $12 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.61 | 33/50 | $4,314 | $4,350 | 63% | 74% | +$938 | -$21,681 | 100.1% | $-23,516 (vs do-nothing $-21,714) |
| $12 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.78 | 39/50 | $4,346 | $4,369 | 62% | 73% | +$639 | -$24,960 | 115.3% | $-26,801 (vs do-nothing $-24,999) |
| $12 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.02 | 40/50 | $4,371 | $4,393 | 62% | 73% | +$884 | -$24,640 | 113.8% | $-26,482 (vs do-nothing $-24,680) |
| $11.50 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.17 | 35/50 | $4,388 | $4,420 | 55% | 70% | +$554 | -$22,785 | 105.2% | $-24,622 (vs do-nothing $-22,820) |
| $11.50 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.00 | 31/50 | $4,429 | $4,469 | 55% | 70% | +$569 | -$20,708 | 95.7% | $-22,541 (vs do-nothing $-20,739) |
| $11.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.80 | 25/50 | $4,286 | $4,339 | 54% | 69% | +$604 | -$17,200 | 79.4% | $-19,027 (vs do-nothing $-17,225) |
| $11.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.61 | 17/50 | $4,444 | $4,515 | 53% | 68% | +$794 | -$12,019 | 55.5% | $-13,838 (vs do-nothing $-12,036) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.