50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $24.33 | CC-SS: $19.06 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $56,650 | (ND $4.33 + SW $7) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $8,893/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $990/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-29,400 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 7d | 40 × $12.50 | 77% | $4,457 | $1,203 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $13.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | 17.5% | 90% | 20% | +5pp | $500 | $2,143 | -$2,314 | $27,296 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $13.50 17.5% OTM over spot $11.49 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.11 mid) = $500 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,143/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $13.61) 91% EV / mo +$1,184 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 45% whole by 9mo vs 40% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,341/mo median; plan ~$912/mo after 68% keep · $8,831 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.1 mo [1.6-5.0], measured ONLY among the 45% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,487 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $17 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.84/sh now → $0.60 mid-life (likely $0.49–$0.87) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.50/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 347 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $14 (overshoots $0.36). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $6 below CC-SS $19.06: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $13.61 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.73 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.06, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,400 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$27,627 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $13.50): -$27,296 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-29,069 (+$331 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,723 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-27,346, the opportunity cost of earning $2,143/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.90 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,500, position total $-24,804 (+$4,596 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 43 × $13 | 24 Jul | 7d | 13.1% | 85% | 31% | +9pp | $688 | $2,949 | -$1,509 | $25,367 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 43 × $13 13.1% OTM over spot $11.49 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.17 mid) = $688 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,949/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $13.17) 87% EV / mo +$1,390 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 50% whole by 9mo vs 41% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,580/mo median; plan ~$1,074/mo after 68% keep · $10,458 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.8 mo [1.7-5.5], measured ONLY among the 50% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,731 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $16 @ 84% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 43 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.80/sh now → $0.56 mid-life (likely $0.54–$0.86) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.40/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 678 simulated challenges: the $13 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $13 (overshoots $0.36). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13 is $6 below CC-SS $19.06: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.16 collected) or spot ≥ $13.17 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.73 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.06, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,400 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$27,627 − CC assignment net of premium (43 × $13): -$25,367 + Conservative CC premium (7 × $22): +$7 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,132 (+$2,268 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,723 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,410, the opportunity cost of earning $2,949/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.90 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,782, position total $-25,079 (+$4,321 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 40 × $12.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | 8.8% | 77% | 36% | +13pp | $1,040 | $4,457 | — | $25,197 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 40 × $12.50 8.8% OTM over spot $11.49 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.27 mid) = $1,040 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,457/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12.50) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $12.77) 82% EV / mo +$1,750 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +13pp 52% whole by 9mo vs 39% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,916/mo median; plan ~$1,303/mo after 68% keep · $12,882 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.3 mo [1.9-5.2], measured ONLY among the 52% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 36% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,075 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $16 @ 88% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 40 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.75/sh now → $0.53 mid-life (likely $0.57–$0.88) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.27/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,077 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $13 (overshoots $0.35). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12.50 is $7 below CC-SS $19.06: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.26 collected) or spot ≥ $12.77 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.73 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.06, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,400 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$27,627 − CC assignment net of premium (40 × $12.50): -$25,197 + Conservative CC premium (10 × $22): +$10 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,960 (+$2,440 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,723 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,237, the opportunity cost of earning $4,457/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.90 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,560, position total $-25,854 (+$3,546 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 35 × $11.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | 0.1% | 53% | 99% | +12pp | $2,100 | $9,000 | +$4,543 | $24,357 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 35 × $11.50 0.1% OTM over spot $11.49 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.62 mid) = $2,100 credit for the 7d cycle → $9,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $11.50) 53% Breach risk 47% POP (stays ≤ $12.12) 69% EV / mo +$1,760 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 48% whole by 9mo vs 36% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~12.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,208/mo median; plan ~$1,501/mo after 68% keep · $15,629 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.0 mo [1.8-5.6], measured ONLY among the 48% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 75% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$475 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $16 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 35 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.66/sh now → $0.46 mid-life (likely $0.65–$0.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.14/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,259 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $12 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $11.50 is $8 below CC-SS $19.06: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.60 collected) or spot ≥ $12.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.73 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.06, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,400 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$27,627 − CC assignment net of premium (35 × $11.50): -$24,357 + Conservative CC premium (15 × $22): +$15 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,115 (+$3,285 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,723 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-24,392, the opportunity cost of earning $9,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.90 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$13,300, position total $-26,589 (+$2,811 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 11 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.730 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$27,627 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,723
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $12.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.26 | 40/50 | $4,457 | $4,479 | 77% | 82% | +$1,750 | -$25,197 | 116.4% | $-26,960 (vs do-nothing $-25,237) |
| $12.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.46 | 46/50 | $4,534 | $4,543 | 71% | 78% | +$1,364 | -$28,057 | 129.6% | $-29,825 (vs do-nothing $-28,103) |
| $12.50 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.67 | 47/50 | $4,499 | $4,505 | 69% | 77% | +$1,102 | -$27,679 | 127.8% | $-29,449 (vs do-nothing $-27,726) |
| $12 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.40 | 26/50 | $4,457 | $4,509 | 66% | 75% | +$1,290 | -$17,314 | 80.0% | $-19,063 (vs do-nothing $-17,340) |
| $12 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.62 | 34/50 | $4,517 | $4,551 | 63% | 74% | +$1,044 | -$21,893 | 101.1% | $-23,650 (vs do-nothing $-21,927) |
| $12 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.85 | 37/50 | $4,493 | $4,521 | 62% | 73% | +$944 | -$22,974 | 106.1% | $-24,734 (vs do-nothing $-23,011) |
| $12 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.02 | 41/50 | $4,481 | $4,500 | 62% | 73% | +$920 | -$24,761 | 114.4% | $-26,525 (vs do-nothing $-24,802) |
| $11.50 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.19 | 35/50 | $4,462 | $4,495 | 55% | 70% | +$650 | -$22,292 | 103.0% | $-24,050 (vs do-nothing $-22,327) |
| $11.50 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.05 | 30/50 | $4,500 | $4,543 | 55% | 70% | +$729 | -$19,528 | 90.2% | $-21,280 (vs do-nothing $-19,558) |
| $11.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.83 | 26/50 | $4,624 | $4,676 | 54% | 69% | +$795 | -$17,496 | 80.8% | $-19,245 (vs do-nothing $-17,522) |
| $11.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.60 | 18/50 | $4,629 | $4,697 | 53% | 69% | +$905 | -$12,527 | 57.9% | $-14,267 (vs do-nothing $-12,545) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.