50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $24.33 | CC-SS: $19.04 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $56,650 | (ND $4.33 + SW $7) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $7,179/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $1,044/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-31,200 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 7d | 45 × $12 | 78% | $3,664 | $605 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield ← lean | 50 × $13 | 24 Jul | 7d | 18.6% | 90% | 20% | +7pp | $400 | $1,714 | -$1,950 | $29,808 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $13 18.6% OTM over spot $10.96 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.08 mid) = $400 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,714/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $13.09) 91% EV / mo +$755 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 40% whole by 9mo vs 33% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,057/mo median; plan ~$719/mo after 68% keep · $7,576 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.4 mo [1.9-5.3], measured ONLY among the 40% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,228 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $15 @ 79% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.74/sh now → $0.53 mid-life (likely $0.43–$0.75) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.45/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 343 simulated challenges: the $13 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $13 (overshoots $0.35). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13 is $6 below CC-SS $19.04: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $13.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.27 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.72 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.04, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-31,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,932 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $13): -$29,808 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-32,076 ($-876 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,218 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-29,858, the opportunity cost of earning $1,714/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.88 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$14,000, position total $-27,586 (+$3,614 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 30 × $12 | 24 Jul | 7d | 9.5% | 78% | 47% | +5pp | $570 | $2,443 | -$1,221 | $20,555 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 30 × $12 9.5% OTM over spot $10.96 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.20 mid) = $570 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,443/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $12.20) 81% EV / mo +$535 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 40% whole by 9mo vs 34% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,113/mo median; plan ~$757/mo after 68% keep · $8,230 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.4 mo [2.1-5.4], measured ONLY among the 40% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 35% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$820 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $15 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 30 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.66/sh now → $0.46 mid-life (likely $0.48–$0.77) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.27/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,038 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $12 (overshoots $0.34). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12 is $7 below CC-SS $19.04: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.19 collected) or spot ≥ $12.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.27 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.72 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.04, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-31,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,932 − CC assignment net of premium (30 × $12): -$20,555 + Conservative CC premium (20 × $22): +$20 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,803 (+$8,397 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,218 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,585, the opportunity cost of earning $2,443/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.88 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,070, position total $-24,636 (+$6,564 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 45 × $12 | 24 Jul | 7d | 9.5% | 78% | 34% | +9pp | $855 | $3,664 | — | $30,832 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 45 × $12 9.5% OTM over spot $10.96 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.20 mid) = $855 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,664/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $12.20) 81% EV / mo +$802 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 40% whole by 9mo vs 32% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,614/mo median; plan ~$1,097/mo after 68% keep · $11,391 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.3 mo [2.1-5.8], measured ONLY among the 40% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,230 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $15 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 45 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.66/sh now → $0.46 mid-life (likely $0.49–$0.77) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.27/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,027 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $12 (overshoots $0.34). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12 is $7 below CC-SS $19.04: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.19 collected) or spot ≥ $12.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.27 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.72 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.04, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-31,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,932 − CC assignment net of premium (45 × $12): -$30,832 + Conservative CC premium (5 × $22): +$5 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-33,095 ($-1,895 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,218 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-30,877, the opportunity cost of earning $3,664/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.88 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$16,605, position total $-30,186 (+$1,014 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 35 × $11 | 24 Jul | 7d | 0.4% | 54% | 98% | +14pp | $1,715 | $7,350 | +$3,686 | $26,431 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 35 × $11 0.4% OTM over spot $10.96 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.52 mid) = $1,715 credit for the 7d cycle → $7,350/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $11) 54% Breach risk 46% POP (stays ≤ $11.52) 67% EV / mo +$508 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +14pp 44% whole by 9mo vs 30% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~13.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,856/mo median; plan ~$1,262/mo after 68% keep · $13,520 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.7 mo [2.2-5.8], measured ONLY among the 44% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 77% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$298 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $16 @ 95% POP 95% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 35 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.57/sh now → $0.40 mid-life (likely $0.57–$0.86) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.49/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.09/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,315 simulated challenges: the $11 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $11 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $11 is $8 below CC-SS $19.04: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.49 collected) or spot ≥ $11.52 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $11)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.27 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.72 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.04, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-31,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,932 − CC assignment net of premium (35 × $11): -$26,431 + Conservative CC premium (15 × $22): +$15 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-28,683 (+$2,517 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,218 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,466, the opportunity cost of earning $7,350/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.88 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$15,365, position total $-28,936 (+$2,264 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 10 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.716 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$28,932 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,218
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $12 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.19 | 45/50 | $3,664 | $3,675 | 78% | 81% | +$802 | -$30,832 | 142.4% | $-33,095 (vs do-nothing $-30,877) |
| $12 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.68 | 50/50 | $3,643 | $3,643 | 68% | 78% | +$517 | -$31,808 | 146.9% | $-34,076 (vs do-nothing $-31,858) |
| $11.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.31 | 28/50 | $3,720 | $3,767 | 67% | 75% | +$524 | -$20,248 | 93.5% | $-22,494 (vs do-nothing $-20,276) |
| $11.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.50 | 34/50 | $3,643 | $3,677 | 63% | 73% | $-671 | -$23,941 | 110.6% | $-26,193 (vs do-nothing $-23,975) |
| $11.50 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.69 | 37/50 | $3,647 | $3,675 | 63% | 75% | +$360 | -$25,351 | 117.1% | $-27,606 (vs do-nothing $-25,388) |
| $11.50 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.80 | 42/50 | $3,600 | $3,617 | 62% | 75% | +$199 | -$28,315 | 130.8% | $-30,575 (vs do-nothing $-28,357) |
| $11 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.80 | 42/50 | $3,600 | $3,617 | 56% | 70% | $-688 | -$30,415 | 140.5% | $-32,675 (vs do-nothing $-30,457) |
| $11 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.90 | 28/50 | $3,600 | $3,647 | 55% | 70% | +$295 | -$19,996 | 92.4% | $-22,242 (vs do-nothing $-20,024) |
| $11 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.67 | 25/50 | $3,589 | $3,643 | 54% | 68% | $-29 | -$18,429 | 85.1% | $-20,672 (vs do-nothing $-18,454) |
| $11 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.49 | 18/50 | $3,780 | $3,849 | 54% | 67% | +$261 | -$13,593 | 62.8% | $-15,829 (vs do-nothing $-13,611) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.