10 of 50 contracts (1,000 sh uncapped) | BE SS: $24.33 | CC-SS: $18.98 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $11,330 | (ND $4.33 + SW $7) x 1000 |
| Normal income ref | $1,569/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $209/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-6,405 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40x $12C 24 Jul 2026 | U6241782 | $0.14 | $541 | 2026-07-18 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 10 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 6d | 8 × $11.50 | 76% | $880 | $235 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 10 × $12.50 | 24 Jul | 6d | 17.3% | 92% | 16% | +6pp | $70 | $350 | -$530 | $6,408 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $12.50 17.3% OTM over spot $10.66 24 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.08 mid) = $70 credit for the 6d cycle → $350/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $12.58) 93% EV / mo +$221 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 36% whole by 9mo vs 30% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $241/mo median; plan ~$164/mo after 68% keep · $1,745 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.9 mo [2.5-5.8], measured ONLY among the 36% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$446 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $15 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.73/sh now → $0.52 mid-life (likely $0.41–$0.74) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.45/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 334 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 6, at $13 (overshoots $0.33). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12.50 is $6 below CC-SS $18.98: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.07 collected) or spot ≥ $12.58 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.71 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.98, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-6,405 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,931 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $12.50): -$6,408 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,882 ($-477 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-464 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,418, the opportunity cost of earning $350/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.87 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,300, position total $-5,990 (+$415 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 8 × $12 | 24 Jul | 6d | 12.6% | 85% | 30% | +9pp | $104 | $520 | -$360 | $5,478 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $12 12.6% OTM over spot $10.66 24 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.14 mid) = $104 credit for the 6d cycle → $520/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $12.13) 87% EV / mo +$249 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 34% whole by 9mo vs 26% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $291/mo median; plan ~$198/mo after 68% keep · $2,132 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.0 mo [2.3-6.3], measured ONLY among the 34% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 21% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$283 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $15 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.68/sh now → $0.48 mid-life (likely $0.48–$0.78) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.35/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 627 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $12 (overshoots $0.33). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12 is $7 below CC-SS $18.98: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $12.13 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.71 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.98, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-6,405 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,931 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $12): -$5,478 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $21): +$2 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,951 (+$454 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-464 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,486, the opportunity cost of earning $520/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.87 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,992, position total $-5,680 (+$725 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 8 × $11.50 | 24 Jul | 6d | 7.9% | 76% | 36% | +12pp | $176 | $880 | — | $5,806 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $11.50 7.9% OTM over spot $10.66 24 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.23 mid) = $176 credit for the 6d cycle → $880/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $11.50) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $11.73) 81% EV / mo +$328 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 46% whole by 9mo vs 33% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $385/mo median; plan ~$262/mo after 68% keep · $2,728 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.6 mo [2.1-6.1], measured ONLY among the 46% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 36% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$186 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $15 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.64/sh now → $0.45 mid-life (likely $0.49–$0.75) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.23/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,070 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $12 (overshoots $0.31). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $11.50 is $7 below CC-SS $18.98: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.22 collected) or spot ≥ $11.73 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.71 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.98, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-6,405 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,931 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $11.50): -$5,806 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $21): +$2 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,279 (+$126 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-464 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,814, the opportunity cost of earning $880/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.87 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,320, position total $-6,008 (+$397 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 9 × $11 | 24 Jul | 6d | 3.2% | 63% | 77% | +16pp | $342 | $1,710 | +$830 | $6,838 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $11 3.2% OTM over spot $10.66 24 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.39 mid) = $342 credit for the 6d cycle → $1,710/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $11) 63% Breach risk 37% POP (stays ≤ $11.39) 74% EV / mo +$468 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +16pp 45% whole by 9mo vs 29% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~8.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $531/mo median; plan ~$361/mo after 68% keep · $3,719 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.8 mo [2.1-6.1], measured ONLY among the 45% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 60% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$38 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $15 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.60/sh now → $0.42 mid-life (likely $0.56–$0.82) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.38/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.04/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,807 simulated challenges: the $11 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 6, at $11 (overshoots $0.32). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $11 is $8 below CC-SS $18.98: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.38 collected) or spot ≥ $11.39 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $11)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.71 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.98, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-6,405 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,931 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $11): -$6,838 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $21): +$1 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,311 ($-906 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-464 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,847, the opportunity cost of earning $1,710/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.87 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,041, position total $-6,730 ($-325 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 12 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.713 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$5,931 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-464
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $11.50 | 6d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.22 | 8/10 | $880 | $885 | 76% | 81% | +$328 | -$5,806 | 134.1% | $-6,279 (vs do-nothing $-5,814) |
| $11.50 | 13d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.44 | 8/10 | $812 | $817 | 70% | 77% | +$217 | -$5,630 | 130.0% | $-6,103 (vs do-nothing $-5,638) |
| $11.50 | 20d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.65 | 9/10 | $878 | $880 | 68% | 77% | +$250 | -$6,145 | 141.9% | $-6,618 (vs do-nothing $-6,154) |
| $11.50 | 27d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.80 | 9/10 | $800 | $802 | 66% | 76% | +$188 | -$6,010 | 138.8% | $-6,483 (vs do-nothing $-6,019) |
| $11 | 6d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.38 | 5/10 | $950 | $962 | 63% | 74% | +$260 | -$3,799 | 87.7% | $-4,268 (vs do-nothing $-3,804) |
| $11 | 13d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.62 | 6/10 | $858 | $868 | 61% | 72% | +$182 | -$4,415 | 102.0% | $-4,885 (vs do-nothing $-4,421) |
| $11 | 20d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.81 | 7/10 | $851 | $857 | 60% | 73% | +$178 | -$5,017 | 115.9% | $-5,489 (vs do-nothing $-5,024) |
| $11 | 27d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.97 | 8/10 | $862 | $867 | 60% | 73% | +$161 | -$5,606 | 129.5% | $-6,079 (vs do-nothing $-5,614) |
| $10.50 | 27d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.14 | 7/10 | $887 | $894 | 53% | 69% | +$102 | -$5,136 | 118.6% | $-5,608 (vs do-nothing $-5,143) |
| $10.50 | 20d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.01 | 6/10 | $909 | $918 | 52% | 69% | +$132 | -$4,481 | 103.5% | $-4,951 (vs do-nothing $-4,487) |
| $10.50 | 13d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.84 | 5/10 | $969 | $981 | 50% | 68% | +$147 | -$3,819 | 88.2% | $-4,288 (vs do-nothing $-3,824) |
| $10.50 | 6d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.60 | 3/10 | $900 | $916 | 47% | 67% | +$145 | -$2,363 | 54.6% | $-2,831 (vs do-nothing $-2,366) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.