10 of 50 contracts (1,000 sh uncapped) | BE SS: $24.33 | CC-SS: $19.24 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $11,330 | (ND $4.33 + SW $7) x 1000 |
| Normal income ref | $1,100/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $218/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-6,020 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40x $12C 24 Jul 2026 | U6241782 | $0.14 | $541 | 2026-07-18 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 10 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 5d | 7 × $12 | 70% | $588 | $167 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 10 × $14.50 | 31 Jul | 12d | 27.0% | 94% | 13% | +1pp | $60 | $150 | -$438 | $4,675 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $14.50 27.0% OTM over spot $11.42 31 Jul 2026 (12d, $0.07 mid) = $60 credit for the 12d cycle → $150/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $14.56) 94% EV / mo +$67 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 44% whole by 9mo vs 42% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $99/mo median; plan ~$67/mo after 68% keep · $658 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.8 mo [1.6-4.7], measured ONLY among the 44% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$482 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $16 @ 72% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 6 of 12); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.77/sh now → $0.54 mid-life (likely $0.40–$0.69) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 294 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 9 of 12, at $15 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $5 below CC-SS $19.24: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.06 collected) or spot ≥ $14.56 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.26 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.24, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-6,020 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$7,034 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $14.50): -$4,675 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,662 (+$2,358 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,024 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,685, the opportunity cost of earning $150/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.87 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,310, position total $-3,325 (+$2,695 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 8 × $12.50 | 24 Jul | 5d | 9.5% | 81% | 40% | +3pp | $64 | $384 | -$204 | $5,324 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $12.50 9.5% OTM over spot $11.42 24 Jul 2026 (5d, $0.08 mid) = $64 credit for the 5d cycle → $384/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12.50) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $12.59) 82% EV / mo $-105 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 47% whole by 9mo vs 44% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $183/mo median; plan ~$125/mo after 68% keep · $1,244 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.8 mo [1.8-4.8], measured ONLY among the 47% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 27% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$119 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $16 @ 89% POP 88% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 5); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.32/sh now → $0.23 mid-life (likely $0.25–$0.39) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.15/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 797 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 5, at $13 (overshoots $0.36). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12.50 is $7 below CC-SS $19.24: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $12.59 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.26 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.24, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-6,020 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$7,034 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $12.50): -$5,324 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $21): +$2 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,308 (+$1,712 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,024 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,332, the opportunity cost of earning $384/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.87 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,632, position total $-4,645 (+$1,375 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 7 × $12 | 24 Jul | 5d | 5.1% | 70% | 47% | +4pp | $98 | $588 | — | $4,967 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 7 × $12 5.1% OTM over spot $11.42 24 Jul 2026 (5d, $0.15 mid) = $98 credit for the 5d cycle → $588/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12) 70% Breach risk 30% POP (stays ≤ $12.14) 73% EV / mo $-250 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 46% whole by 9mo vs 42% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~6.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $222/mo median; plan ~$151/mo after 68% keep · $1,556 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.8 mo [1.7-5.1], measured ONLY among the 46% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 47% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$53 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $15 @ 90% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 7 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 5); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.30/sh now → $0.22 mid-life (likely $0.26–$0.39) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.08/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,399 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 5, at $12 (overshoots $0.32). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12 is $7 below CC-SS $19.24: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.14 collected) or spot ≥ $12.14 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.26 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.24, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-6,020 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$7,034 − CC assignment net of premium (7 × $12): -$4,967 + Conservative CC premium (3 × $21): +$3 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,950 (+$2,070 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,024 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,974, the opportunity cost of earning $588/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.87 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,611, position total $-4,623 (+$1,397 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 8 × $11.50 | 24 Jul | 5d | 0.7% | 55% | 94% | +9pp | $200 | $1,200 | +$612 | $5,988 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $11.50 0.7% OTM over spot $11.42 24 Jul 2026 (5d, $0.26 mid) = $200 credit for the 5d cycle → $1,200/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $11.50) 55% Breach risk 45% POP (stays ≤ $11.76) 63% EV / mo $-599 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 49% whole by 9mo vs 40% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~13.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $308/mo median; plan ~$210/mo after 68% keep · $2,099 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.7 mo [1.5-4.9], measured ONLY among the 49% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 72% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$39 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $15 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 5); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.28/sh now → $0.20 mid-life (likely $0.28–$0.44) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.05/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,162 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 5, at $12 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $11.50 is $8 below CC-SS $19.24: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $11.76 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.26 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.24, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-6,020 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$7,034 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $11.50): -$5,988 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $21): +$2 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,972 (+$1,048 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,024 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,996, the opportunity cost of earning $1,200/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.87 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,296, position total $-5,309 (+$711 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 10 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$7,034 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $1,024
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $12.50 | 12d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.22 | 10/10 | $550 | $550 | 73% | 77% | $-130 | -$6,515 | 150.5% | $-5,502 (vs do-nothing $-6,525) |
| $12.50 | 19d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.38 | 10/10 | $600 | $600 | 70% | 75% | $-127 | -$6,355 | 146.8% | $-5,342 (vs do-nothing $-6,365) |
| $12 | 5d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.14 | 7/10 | $588 | $596 | 70% | 73% | $-250 | -$4,967 | 114.7% | $-3,950 (vs do-nothing $-4,974) |
| $12 | 12d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.30 | 8/10 | $600 | $605 | 65% | 71% | $-218 | -$5,548 | 128.1% | $-4,532 (vs do-nothing $-5,556) |
| $12 | 19d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.48 | 8/10 | $606 | $611 | 63% | 70% | $-171 | -$5,404 | 124.8% | $-4,388 (vs do-nothing $-5,412) |
| $12 | 26d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.67 | 8/10 | $618 | $623 | 63% | 71% | $-29 | -$5,252 | 121.3% | $-4,236 (vs do-nothing $-5,260) |
| $11.50 | 26d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.80 | 6/10 | $554 | $564 | 56% | 67% | $-104 | -$4,161 | 96.1% | $-3,143 (vs do-nothing $-4,167) |
| $11.50 | 19d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.64 | 6/10 | $606 | $616 | 55% | 66% | $-121 | -$4,257 | 98.3% | $-3,239 (vs do-nothing $-4,263) |
| $11.50 | 12d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.44 | 5/10 | $550 | $563 | 55% | 64% | $-203 | -$3,648 | 84.2% | $-2,629 (vs do-nothing $-3,653) |
| $11.50 | 5d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.25 | 4/10 | $600 | $615 | 55% | 63% | $-300 | -$2,994 | 69.1% | $-1,974 (vs do-nothing $-2,998) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.