10 of 50 contracts (1,000 sh uncapped) | BE SS: $24.33 | CC-SS: $19.30 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $11,330 | (ND $4.33 + SW $7) x 1000 |
| Normal income ref | $1,855/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $207/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-6,230 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40x $12C 24 Jul 2026 | U6241782 | $0.14 | $541 | 2026-07-18 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 10 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 4d | 10 × $12.50 | 88% | $975 | $398 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 31 Jul 2026 · 11d | 9 × $12 | 70% | $1,031 | $123 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 10 × $13 | 24 Jul | 4d | 16.4% | 91% | 18% | +6pp | $70 | $525 | -$450 | $6,233 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $13 16.4% OTM over spot $11.17 24 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.08 mid) = $70 credit for the 4d cycle → $525/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $13.07) 92% EV / mo +$277 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 50% whole by 9mo vs 44% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $319/mo median; plan ~$217/mo after 68% keep · $1,857 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.3 mo [1.1-4.4], measured ONLY among the 50% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$454 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $16 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.74/sh now → $0.52 mid-life (likely $0.44–$0.75) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.45/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 224 simulated challenges: the $13 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $13 (overshoots $0.33). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13 is $6 below CC-SS $19.30: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.07 collected) or spot ≥ $13.07 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.04 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.30, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-6,230 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$7,320 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $13): -$6,233 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,143 (+$1,087 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,100 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,243, the opportunity cost of earning $525/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.72 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,650, position total $-4,785 (+$1,445 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 7 × $12.50 | 24 Jul | 4d | 11.9% | 88% | 25% | +11pp | $91 | $683 | -$292 | $4,671 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 7 × $12.50 11.9% OTM over spot $11.17 24 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.14 mid) = $91 credit for the 4d cycle → $683/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12.50) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $12.64) 90% EV / mo +$442 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +11pp 50% whole by 9mo vs 39% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $405/mo median; plan ~$275/mo after 68% keep · $2,487 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.0 mo [1.7-5.3], measured ONLY among the 50% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$254 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $15 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 7 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.70/sh now → $0.49 mid-life (likely $0.47–$0.82) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.36/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 461 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $13 (overshoots $0.35). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12.50 is $7 below CC-SS $19.30: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $12.64 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.04 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.30, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-6,230 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$7,320 − CC assignment net of premium (7 × $12.50): -$4,671 + Conservative CC premium (3 × $20): +$3 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,578 (+$2,652 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,100 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,678, the opportunity cost of earning $683/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.72 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,163, position total $-4,295 (+$1,935 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 10 × $12.50 | 24 Jul | 4d | 11.9% | 88% | 16% | +12pp | $130 | $975 | — | $6,673 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $12.50 11.9% OTM over spot $11.17 24 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.14 mid) = $130 credit for the 4d cycle → $975/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12.50) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $12.64) 90% EV / mo +$632 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 55% whole by 9mo vs 43% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $560/mo median; plan ~$381/mo after 68% keep · $3,093 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.4 mo [1.3-4.2], measured ONLY among the 55% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 16% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$363 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $15 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.70/sh now → $0.49 mid-life (likely $0.47–$0.79) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.36/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 468 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $13 (overshoots $0.34). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12.50 is $7 below CC-SS $19.30: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $12.64 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.04 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.30, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-6,230 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$7,320 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $12.50): -$6,673 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,583 (+$647 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,100 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,683, the opportunity cost of earning $975/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.72 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,090, position total $-5,225 (+$1,005 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 6 × $11.50 | 24 Jul | 4d | 3.0% | 63% | 76% | +14pp | $252 | $1,890 | +$915 | $4,430 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $11.50 3.0% OTM over spot $11.17 24 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.43 mid) = $252 credit for the 4d cycle → $1,890/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $11.50) 63% Breach risk 37% POP (stays ≤ $11.94) 76% EV / mo +$781 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +14pp 59% whole by 9mo vs 45% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~9.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $596/mo median; plan ~$405/mo after 68% keep · $3,361 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.8 mo [1.6-4.8], measured ONLY among the 59% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 55% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$8 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $15 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.61/sh now → $0.43 mid-life (likely $0.55–$0.93) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.42/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.01/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,657 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $12 (overshoots $0.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $11.50 is $8 below CC-SS $19.30: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.42 collected) or spot ≥ $11.94 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.04 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.30, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-6,230 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$7,320 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $11.50): -$4,430 + Conservative CC premium (4 × $20): +$4 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,336 (+$2,894 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,100 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,436, the opportunity cost of earning $1,890/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.72 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,280, position total $-4,411 (+$1,819 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 10 × $14 | 31 Jul | 11d | 25.3% | 92% | 16% | +4pp | $100 | $273 | -$758 | $5,203 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $14 25.3% OTM over spot $11.17 31 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.12 mid) = $100 credit for the 11d cycle → $273/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $14.12) 93% EV / mo +$154 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 44% whole by 9mo vs 40% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $175/mo median; plan ~$119/mo after 68% keep · $1,129 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.4 mo [1.4-4.1], measured ONLY among the 44% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$803 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $15 @ 74% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.28/sh now → $0.90 mid-life (likely $0.76–$1.23) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.80/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 363 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 11, at $14 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $5 below CC-SS $19.30: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $14.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.04 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.30, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-6,230 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$7,320 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $14): -$5,203 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,113 (+$2,117 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,100 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,213, the opportunity cost of earning $273/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.72 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,620, position total $-3,755 (+$2,475 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 9 × $12.50 | 31 Jul | 11d | 11.9% | 77% | 48% | +8pp | $252 | $687 | -$344 | $5,871 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $12.50 11.9% OTM over spot $11.17 31 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.39 mid) = $252 credit for the 11d cycle → $687/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12.50) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $12.89) 83% EV / mo +$179 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 49% whole by 9mo vs 40% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $300/mo median; plan ~$204/mo after 68% keep · $1,974 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.7 mo [1.7-4.5], measured ONLY among the 49% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 37% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$429 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $14 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.07/sh now → $0.76 mid-life (likely $0.79–$1.18) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.28/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,115 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $13 (overshoots $0.36). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12.50 is $7 below CC-SS $19.30: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.28 collected) or spot ≥ $12.89 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.04 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.30, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-6,230 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$7,320 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $12.50): -$5,871 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $20): +$1 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,780 (+$1,450 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,100 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,880, the opportunity cost of earning $687/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.72 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,646, position total $-4,780 (+$1,450 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 9 × $12 | 31 Jul | 11d | 7.4% | 70% | 52% | +9pp | $378 | $1,031 | — | $6,195 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $12 7.4% OTM over spot $11.17 31 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.46 mid) = $378 credit for the 11d cycle → $1,031/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12) 70% Breach risk 30% POP (stays ≤ $12.46) 77% EV / mo +$236 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 48% whole by 9mo vs 39% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $373/mo median; plan ~$254/mo after 68% keep · $2,354 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.6 mo [1.4-4.7], measured ONLY among the 48% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 52% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$262 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $15 @ 86% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.00/sh now → $0.71 mid-life (likely $0.85–$1.20) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.42/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,560 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 11, at $12 (overshoots $0.36). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12 is $7 below CC-SS $19.30: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.42 collected) or spot ≥ $12.46 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.04 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.30, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-6,230 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$7,320 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $12): -$6,195 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $20): +$1 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,104 (+$1,126 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,100 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,204, the opportunity cost of earning $1,031/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.72 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,970, position total $-5,104 (+$1,126 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 9 × $11 | 31 Jul | 11d | -1.5% | 50% | 99+% | · | $765 | $2,086 | +$1,055 | $6,708 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $11 1.5% ITM over spot $11.17 31 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.93 mid) = $765 credit for the 11d cycle → $2,086/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $11) 50% Breach risk 50% POP (stays ≤ $11.93) 68% EV / mo +$319 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$205 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $15 @ 94% POP 93% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.88/sh now → $0.62 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.23/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $11 is $8 below CC-SS $19.30: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.85 collected) or spot ≥ $11.93 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $11)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.04 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.30, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-6,230 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$7,320 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $11): -$6,708 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $20): +$1 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,617 (+$613 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,100 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,717, the opportunity cost of earning $2,086/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.72 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,483, position total $-5,617 (+$613 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 13 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$7,320 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $1,100
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $12.50 | 4d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.13 | 10/10 | $975 | $975 | 88% | 90% | +$632 | -$6,673 | 154.1% | $-5,583 (vs do-nothing $-6,683) |
| $12 | 4d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.23 | 6/10 | $1,035 | $1,042 | 76% | 81% | +$412 | -$4,244 | 98.0% | $-3,150 (vs do-nothing $-4,250) |
| $12 | 11d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.42 | 9/10 | $1,031 | $1,033 | 70% | 77% | +$236 | -$6,195 | 143.1% | $-5,104 (vs do-nothing $-6,204) |
| $12 | 18d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.60 | 10/10 | $1,000 | $1,000 | 67% | 76% | +$167 | -$6,703 | 154.8% | $-5,613 (vs do-nothing $-6,713) |
| $12 | 25d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.89 | 9/10 | $961 | $963 | 66% | 76% | +$266 | -$5,772 | 133.3% | $-4,681 (vs do-nothing $-5,781) |
| $11.50 | 4d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.42 | 3/10 | $945 | $957 | 63% | 76% | +$390 | -$2,215 | 51.2% | $-1,118 (vs do-nothing $-2,218) |
| $11.50 | 11d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.65 | 6/10 | $1,064 | $1,070 | 60% | 73% | +$259 | -$4,292 | 99.1% | $-3,198 (vs do-nothing $-4,298) |
| $11.50 | 18d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.77 | 8/10 | $1,027 | $1,030 | 60% | 72% | +$129 | -$5,627 | 129.9% | $-4,535 (vs do-nothing $-5,635) |
| $11.50 | 25d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.95 | 9/10 | $1,026 | $1,028 | 60% | 73% | +$140 | -$6,168 | 142.4% | $-5,077 (vs do-nothing $-6,177) |
| $11 | 25d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.17 | 7/10 | $983 | $988 | 53% | 70% | +$111 | -$4,993 | 115.3% | $-3,900 (vs do-nothing $-5,000) |
| $11 | 18d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.99 | 6/10 | $990 | $997 | 51% | 69% | +$95 | -$4,388 | 101.3% | $-3,294 (vs do-nothing $-4,394) |
| $11 | 11d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.85 | 5/10 | $1,159 | $1,167 | 50% | 68% | +$177 | -$3,727 | 86.1% | $-2,632 (vs do-nothing $-3,732) |
| $11 | 4d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.69 | 2/10 | $1,035 | $1,048 | 46% | 69% | +$327 | -$1,523 | 35.2% | $-425 (vs do-nothing $-1,525) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.