50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $24.33 | CC-SS: $19.26 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $56,650 | (ND $4.33 + SW $7) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $8,727/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $995/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-29,400 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 4d | 28 × $12.50 | 74% | $4,410 | $1,218 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 31 Jul 2026 · 11d | 50 × $13 | 76% | $4,364 | $499 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $13.50 | 24 Jul | 4d | 15.2% | 91% | 18% | +8pp | $300 | $2,250 | -$2,160 | $28,477 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $13.50 15.2% OTM over spot $11.72 24 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.07 mid) = $300 credit for the 4d cycle → $2,250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $13.56) 92% EV / mo +$1,041 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 50% whole by 9mo vs 42% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,436/mo median; plan ~$976/mo after 68% keep · $8,598 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.8 mo [1.6-4.9], measured ONLY among the 50% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,925 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $17 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.63/sh now → $0.44 mid-life (likely $0.40–$0.72) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.38/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 358 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $14 (overshoots $0.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $6 below CC-SS $19.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.06 collected) or spot ≥ $13.56 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.97 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.73 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,400 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$27,617 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $13.50): -$28,477 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,260 ($-860 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,733 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-28,527, the opportunity cost of earning $2,250/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.73 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,850, position total $-25,553 (+$3,847 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 35 × $13 | 24 Jul | 4d | 10.9% | 84% | 32% | +7pp | $385 | $2,888 | -$1,522 | $21,509 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 35 × $13 10.9% OTM over spot $11.72 24 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.12 mid) = $385 credit for the 4d cycle → $2,888/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $13.12) 86% EV / mo +$892 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 46% whole by 9mo vs 40% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,536/mo median; plan ~$1,044/mo after 68% keep · $9,779 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.0 mo [1.7-4.9], measured ONLY among the 46% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,086 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $16 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 35 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.59/sh now → $0.42 mid-life (likely $0.42–$0.70) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.31/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 682 simulated challenges: the $13 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $13 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13 is $6 below CC-SS $19.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $13.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.97 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.73 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,400 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$27,617 − CC assignment net of premium (35 × $13): -$21,509 + Conservative CC premium (15 × $22): +$15 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,277 (+$6,123 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,733 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,544, the opportunity cost of earning $2,888/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.73 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,170, position total $-23,858 (+$5,542 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 28 × $12.50 | 24 Jul | 4d | 6.7% | 74% | 38% | +9pp | $588 | $4,410 | — | $18,327 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 28 × $12.50 6.7% OTM over spot $11.72 24 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.22 mid) = $588 credit for the 4d cycle → $4,410/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12.50) 74% Breach risk 26% POP (stays ≤ $12.72) 79% EV / mo +$1,000 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 46% whole by 9mo vs 38% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~6.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,809/mo median; plan ~$1,230/mo after 68% keep · $11,675 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.7 mo [1.5-5.5], measured ONLY among the 46% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 38% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$522 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $17 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 28 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.56/sh now → $0.40 mid-life (likely $0.46–$0.76) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.21/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.19/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,150 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $13 (overshoots $0.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12.50 is $7 below CC-SS $19.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.21 collected) or spot ≥ $12.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.97 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.73 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,400 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$27,617 − CC assignment net of premium (28 × $12.50): -$18,327 + Conservative CC premium (22 × $22): +$22 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,088 (+$9,312 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,733 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,355, the opportunity cost of earning $4,410/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.73 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,456, position total $-23,137 (+$6,263 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 32 × $12 | 24 Jul | 4d | 2.4% | 61% | 82% | +12pp | $1,184 | $8,880 | +$4,470 | $22,033 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 32 × $12 2.4% OTM over spot $11.72 24 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.38 mid) = $1,184 credit for the 4d cycle → $8,880/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12) 61% Breach risk 39% POP (stays ≤ $12.38) 71% EV / mo +$1,196 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 49% whole by 9mo vs 38% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~11.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,578/mo median; plan ~$1,753/mo after 68% keep · $15,997 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.4 mo [1.4-4.5], measured ONLY among the 49% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 59% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$11 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $15 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 32 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.53/sh now → $0.37 mid-life (likely $0.48–$0.80) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.37/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.00/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,765 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $12 (overshoots $0.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12 is $7 below CC-SS $19.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.37 collected) or spot ≥ $12.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.97 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.73 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,400 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$27,617 − CC assignment net of premium (32 × $12): -$22,033 + Conservative CC premium (18 × $22): +$18 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,798 (+$5,602 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,733 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,065, the opportunity cost of earning $8,880/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.73 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,752, position total $-25,437 (+$3,963 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield ← lean | 50 × $14.50 | 31 Jul | 11d | 23.7% | 91% | 19% | +6pp | $500 | $1,364 | -$3,000 | $23,277 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $14.50 23.7% OTM over spot $11.72 31 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.12 mid) = $500 credit for the 11d cycle → $1,364/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $14.62) 92% EV / mo +$557 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 44% whole by 9mo vs 38% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $864/mo median; plan ~$587/mo after 68% keep · $5,632 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.0 mo [1.9-4.4], measured ONLY among the 44% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,649 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $16 @ 77% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.17/sh now → $0.83 mid-life (likely $0.70–$1.09) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.73/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 419 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 11, at $15 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $5 below CC-SS $19.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $14.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.97 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.73 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,400 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$27,617 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $14.50): -$23,277 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,060 (+$4,340 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,733 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,327, the opportunity cost of earning $1,364/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.73 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,650, position total $-20,353 (+$9,047 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 33 × $13 | 31 Jul | 11d | 10.9% | 76% | 51% | +4pp | $1,056 | $2,880 | -$1,484 | $19,587 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 33 × $13 10.9% OTM over spot $11.72 31 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.33 mid) = $1,056 credit for the 11d cycle → $2,880/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $13.34) 80% EV / mo +$723 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 45% whole by 9mo vs 40% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,221/mo median; plan ~$830/mo after 68% keep · $8,130 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.8 mo [1.6-4.8], measured ONLY among the 45% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 41% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,257 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $16 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 33 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.99/sh now → $0.70 mid-life (likely $0.77–$1.11) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.32/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.38/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,243 simulated challenges: the $13 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $13 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13 is $6 below CC-SS $19.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.32 collected) or spot ≥ $13.34 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.97 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.73 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,400 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$27,617 − CC assignment net of premium (33 × $13): -$19,587 + Conservative CC premium (17 × $22): +$17 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,353 (+$8,047 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,733 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,620, the opportunity cost of earning $2,880/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.73 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,953, position total $-22,639 (+$6,761 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 50 × $13 | 31 Jul | 11d | 10.9% | 76% | 40% | +11pp | $1,600 | $4,364 | — | $29,677 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $13 10.9% OTM over spot $11.72 31 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.33 mid) = $1,600 credit for the 11d cycle → $4,364/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $13.34) 80% EV / mo +$1,095 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +11pp 45% whole by 9mo vs 34% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,735/mo median; plan ~$1,180/mo after 68% keep · $12,555 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.8 mo [1.7-4.8], measured ONLY among the 45% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 40% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,905 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $16 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.99/sh now → $0.70 mid-life (likely $0.75–$1.11) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.32/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.38/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,213 simulated challenges: the $13 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $13 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13 is $6 below CC-SS $19.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.32 collected) or spot ≥ $13.34 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.97 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.73 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,400 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$27,617 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $13): -$29,677 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-31,460 ($-2,060 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,733 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-29,727, the opportunity cost of earning $4,364/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.73 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,050, position total $-26,753 (+$2,647 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 50 × $12 | 31 Jul | 11d | 2.4% | 59% | 88% | +14pp | $3,200 | $8,727 | +$4,364 | $33,077 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $12 2.4% OTM over spot $11.72 31 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.66 mid) = $3,200 credit for the 11d cycle → $8,727/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12) 59% Breach risk 41% POP (stays ≤ $12.65) 70% EV / mo +$1,187 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +14pp 52% whole by 9mo vs 38% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~7.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,465/mo median; plan ~$1,676/mo after 68% keep · $15,906 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.0 mo [1.7-5.3], measured ONLY among the 52% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 72% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$97 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $16 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.88/sh now → $0.62 mid-life (likely $0.85–$1.16) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.64/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,175 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 11, at $12 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12 is $7 below CC-SS $19.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.16/sh (~25% of the $0.64 collected) or spot ≥ $12.65 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.97 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.73 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,400 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$27,617 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $12): -$33,077 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-34,860 ($-5,460 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,733 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-33,127, the opportunity cost of earning $8,727/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.73 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$15,450, position total $-30,153 ($-753 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 14 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.733 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$27,617 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,733
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13 | 11d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.32 | 50/50 | $4,364 | $4,364 | 76% | 80% | +$1,095 | -$29,677 | 137.1% | $-31,460 (vs do-nothing $-29,727) |
| $12.50 | 4d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.21 | 28/50 | $4,410 | $4,447 | 74% | 79% | +$1,000 | -$18,327 | 84.7% | $-20,088 (vs do-nothing $-18,355) |
| $13 | 18d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.55 | 48/50 | $4,400 | $4,403 | 71% | 78% | +$679 | -$27,386 | 126.5% | $-29,167 (vs do-nothing $-27,434) |
| $12.50 | 11d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.46 | 35/50 | $4,391 | $4,416 | 68% | 75% | +$838 | -$22,034 | 101.8% | $-23,802 (vs do-nothing $-22,069) |
| $12.50 | 18d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.71 | 37/50 | $4,378 | $4,400 | 65% | 74% | +$547 | -$22,368 | 103.3% | $-24,138 (vs do-nothing $-22,405) |
| $12.50 | 25d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.88 | 42/50 | $4,435 | $4,449 | 65% | 74% | +$644 | -$24,676 | 114.0% | $-26,451 (vs do-nothing $-24,718) |
| $12 | 4d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.37 | 16/50 | $4,440 | $4,497 | 61% | 71% | +$598 | -$11,017 | 50.9% | $-12,765 (vs do-nothing $-11,033) |
| $12 | 11d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.64 | 25/50 | $4,364 | $4,405 | 59% | 70% | +$593 | -$16,538 | 76.4% | $-18,296 (vs do-nothing $-16,563) |
| $12 | 25d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.07 | 34/50 | $4,366 | $4,392 | 59% | 71% | +$523 | -$21,030 | 97.1% | $-22,797 (vs do-nothing $-21,064) |
| $12 | 18d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.90 | 30/50 | $4,500 | $4,533 | 59% | 71% | +$598 | -$19,066 | 88.1% | $-20,829 (vs do-nothing $-19,096) |
| $11.50 | 25d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.28 | 29/50 | $4,454 | $4,489 | 53% | 68% | +$393 | -$18,779 | 86.7% | $-20,540 (vs do-nothing $-18,808) |
| $11.50 | 18d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.11 | 24/50 | $4,440 | $4,483 | 51% | 68% | +$405 | -$15,949 | 73.7% | $-17,706 (vs do-nothing $-15,973) |
| $11.50 | 11d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.86 | 19/50 | $4,456 | $4,508 | 49% | 66% | +$365 | -$13,101 | 60.5% | $-14,853 (vs do-nothing $-13,120) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $11.50 | 4d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.59 | 10/50 | $4,425 | $4,492 | 45% | 64% | +$248 | -$7,165 | 33.1% | $-8,908 (vs do-nothing $-7,175) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.