50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $24.33 | CC-SS: $18.88 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $56,650 | (ND $4.33 + SW $7) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $8,250/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $984/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-27,900 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 3d | 38 × $13 | 88% | $4,180 | $1,800 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 31 Jul 2026 · 10d | 45 × $13 | 77% | $4,185 | $545 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $13.50 | 24 Jul | 3d | 15.3% | 94% | 13% | +12pp | $250 | $2,500 | -$1,680 | $26,666 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $13.50 15.3% OTM over spot $11.71 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.06 mid) = $250 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $13.56) 94% EV / mo +$1,675 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 49% whole by 9mo vs 38% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,685/mo median; plan ~$1,146/mo after 68% keep · $9,713 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.6 mo [1.3-4.9], measured ONLY among the 49% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,005 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $17 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.64/sh now → $0.45 mid-life (likely $0.40–$0.75) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.40/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 209 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $14 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $5 below CC-SS $18.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $13.56 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.96 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.73 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-27,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,344 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $13.50): -$26,666 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-28,222 ($-322 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,506 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,716, the opportunity cost of earning $2,500/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.74 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,950, position total $-24,042 (+$3,858 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 25 × $13 | 24 Jul | 3d | 11.1% | 88% | 25% | +7pp | $275 | $2,750 | -$1,430 | $14,433 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $13 11.1% OTM over spot $11.71 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.11 mid) = $275 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,750/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $13.12) 90% EV / mo +$1,705 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 43% whole by 9mo vs 36% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,643/mo median; plan ~$1,117/mo after 68% keep · $10,579 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.8 mo [1.5-4.8], measured ONLY among the 43% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 17% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$790 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $17 @ 88% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.60/sh now → $0.43 mid-life (likely $0.42–$0.76) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.32/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 500 simulated challenges: the $13 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $13 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13 is $6 below CC-SS $18.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $13.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.96 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.73 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-27,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,344 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $13): -$14,433 + Conservative CC premium (25 × $21): +$25 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,964 (+$11,936 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,506 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,458, the opportunity cost of earning $2,750/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.74 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,575, position total $-19,642 (+$8,258 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 38 × $13 | 24 Jul | 3d | 11.1% | 88% | 15% | +13pp | $418 | $4,180 | — | $21,938 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 38 × $13 11.1% OTM over spot $11.71 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.11 mid) = $418 credit for the 3d cycle → $4,180/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $13.12) 90% EV / mo +$2,592 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +13pp 54% whole by 9mo vs 41% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,503/mo median; plan ~$1,702/mo after 68% keep · $14,876 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.9 mo [1.6-4.6], measured ONLY among the 54% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,201 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $17 @ 88% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 38 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.60/sh now → $0.43 mid-life (likely $0.40–$0.80) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.32/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 441 simulated challenges: the $13 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $13 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13 is $6 below CC-SS $18.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $13.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.96 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.73 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-27,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,344 − CC assignment net of premium (38 × $13): -$21,938 + Conservative CC premium (12 × $21): +$12 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,482 (+$4,418 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,506 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,976, the opportunity cost of earning $4,180/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.74 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,994, position total $-23,074 (+$4,826 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 38 × $12.50 | 24 Jul | 3d | 6.8% | 78% | 46% | +16pp | $836 | $8,360 | +$4,180 | $23,420 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 38 × $12.50 6.8% OTM over spot $11.71 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.23 mid) = $836 credit for the 3d cycle → $8,360/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12.50) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $12.72) 83% EV / mo +$4,313 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +16pp 57% whole by 9mo vs 41% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,661/mo median; plan ~$2,489/mo after 68% keep · $21,128 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.5 mo [1.4-4.5], measured ONLY among the 57% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 29% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$690 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $17 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 38 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.57/sh now → $0.40 mid-life (likely $0.45–$0.80) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 879 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $13 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12.50 is $6 below CC-SS $18.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.22 collected) or spot ≥ $12.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.96 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.73 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-27,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,344 − CC assignment net of premium (38 × $12.50): -$23,420 + Conservative CC premium (12 × $21): +$12 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,964 (+$2,936 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,506 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,458, the opportunity cost of earning $8,360/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.74 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,476, position total $-24,556 (+$3,344 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $14.50 | 31 Jul | 10d | 23.9% | 92% | 17% | +4pp | $500 | $1,500 | -$2,685 | $21,416 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $14.50 23.9% OTM over spot $11.71 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.11 mid) = $500 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $14.61) 92% EV / mo +$769 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 45% whole by 9mo vs 41% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $936/mo median; plan ~$637/mo after 68% keep · $6,157 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.0 mo [1.6-5.2], measured ONLY among the 45% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,620 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $16 @ 78% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.16/sh now → $0.82 mid-life (likely $0.68–$1.08) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.72/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 327 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $15 (overshoots $0.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $4 below CC-SS $18.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $14.61 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.96 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.73 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-27,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,344 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $14.50): -$21,416 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,972 (+$4,928 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,506 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,466, the opportunity cost of earning $1,500/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.74 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,700, position total $-18,792 (+$9,108 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 44 × $13.50 | 31 Jul | 10d | 15.3% | 84% | 34% | +10pp | $924 | $2,772 | -$1,413 | $22,762 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 44 × $13.50 15.3% OTM over spot $11.71 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.22 mid) = $924 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,772/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $13.72) 86% EV / mo +$1,134 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 50% whole by 9mo vs 40% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,449/mo median; plan ~$985/mo after 68% keep · $9,350 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.8 mo [1.6-5.1], measured ONLY among the 50% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 25% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,316 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $16 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 44 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.04/sh now → $0.74 mid-life (likely $0.69–$1.10) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.21/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.53/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 755 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $14 (overshoots $0.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $5 below CC-SS $18.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.21 collected) or spot ≥ $13.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.96 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.73 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-27,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,344 − CC assignment net of premium (44 × $13.50): -$22,762 + Conservative CC premium (6 × $21): +$6 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,312 (+$3,588 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,506 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,806, the opportunity cost of earning $2,772/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.74 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,932, position total $-22,018 (+$5,882 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 45 × $13 | 31 Jul | 10d | 11.1% | 77% | 39% | +10pp | $1,395 | $4,185 | — | $25,079 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 45 × $13 11.1% OTM over spot $11.71 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.33 mid) = $1,395 credit for the 10d cycle → $4,185/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $13.33) 82% EV / mo +$1,492 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 51% whole by 9mo vs 41% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,830/mo median; plan ~$1,244/mo after 68% keep · $11,733 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.4 mo [1.8-5.4], measured ONLY among the 51% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 39% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,730 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $16 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 45 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.98/sh now → $0.69 mid-life (likely $0.72–$1.11) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.31/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.38/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,165 simulated challenges: the $13 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $13 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13 is $6 below CC-SS $18.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.31 collected) or spot ≥ $13.33 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.96 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.73 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-27,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,344 − CC assignment net of premium (45 × $13): -$25,079 + Conservative CC premium (5 × $21): +$5 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,630 (+$1,270 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,506 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,124, the opportunity cost of earning $4,185/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.74 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,935, position total $-24,022 (+$3,878 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 43 × $12 | 31 Jul | 10d | 2.5% | 59% | 86% | +14pp | $2,752 | $8,256 | +$4,071 | $26,845 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 43 × $12 2.5% OTM over spot $11.71 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.67 mid) = $2,752 credit for the 10d cycle → $8,256/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12) 59% Breach risk 41% POP (stays ≤ $12.67) 72% EV / mo +$1,967 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +14pp 48% whole by 9mo vs 34% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~7.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,380/mo median; plan ~$1,619/mo after 68% keep · $16,185 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.8 mo [1.8-5.0], measured ONLY among the 48% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 71% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$113 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $16 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 43 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.87/sh now → $0.61 mid-life (likely $0.83–$1.14) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.64/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,128 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $12 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12 is $7 below CC-SS $18.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.16/sh (~25% of the $0.64 collected) or spot ≥ $12.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.96 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.73 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-27,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,344 − CC assignment net of premium (43 × $12): -$26,845 + Conservative CC premium (7 × $21): +$7 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-28,395 ($-495 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,506 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,888, the opportunity cost of earning $8,256/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.74 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$13,330, position total $-26,415 (+$1,485 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 16 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.734 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$26,344 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,506
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.11 | 38/50 | $4,180 | $4,216 | 88% | 90% | +$2,592 | -$21,938 | 101.3% | $-23,482 (vs do-nothing $-21,976) |
| $12.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.22 | 19/50 | $4,180 | $4,273 | 78% | 83% | +$2,157 | -$11,710 | 54.1% | $-13,235 (vs do-nothing $-11,729) |
| $13 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.31 | 45/50 | $4,185 | $4,200 | 77% | 82% | +$1,492 | -$25,079 | 115.8% | $-26,630 (vs do-nothing $-25,124) |
| $13 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.55 | 43/50 | $4,174 | $4,195 | 72% | 79% | +$1,161 | -$22,932 | 105.9% | $-24,482 (vs do-nothing $-22,975) |
| $13 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.75 | 44/50 | $4,125 | $4,143 | 70% | 78% | +$1,079 | -$22,586 | 104.3% | $-24,136 (vs do-nothing $-22,630) |
| $12.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.45 | 31/50 | $4,185 | $4,242 | 69% | 77% | +$1,244 | -$18,393 | 85.0% | $-19,930 (vs do-nothing $-18,424) |
| $12.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.71 | 33/50 | $4,135 | $4,186 | 66% | 75% | +$990 | -$18,721 | 86.5% | $-20,261 (vs do-nothing $-18,754) |
| $12.50 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.90 | 37/50 | $4,162 | $4,202 | 65% | 75% | +$906 | -$20,287 | 93.7% | $-21,831 (vs do-nothing $-20,324) |
| $12 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.38 | 11/50 | $4,180 | $4,297 | 62% | 75% | +$1,498 | -$7,153 | 33.0% | $-8,671 (vs do-nothing $-7,164) |
| $12 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.64 | 22/50 | $4,224 | $4,308 | 59% | 72% | +$1,006 | -$13,735 | 63.4% | $-15,263 (vs do-nothing $-13,757) |
| $12 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.11 | 30/50 | $4,163 | $4,223 | 59% | 72% | +$832 | -$17,319 | 80.0% | $-18,856 (vs do-nothing $-17,349) |
| $12 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.92 | 26/50 | $4,221 | $4,293 | 59% | 72% | +$900 | -$15,504 | 71.6% | $-17,036 (vs do-nothing $-15,530) |
| $11.50 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.33 | 25/50 | $4,156 | $4,231 | 52% | 69% | +$684 | -$15,133 | 69.9% | $-16,664 (vs do-nothing $-15,158) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $11.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.14 | 21/50 | $4,225 | $4,312 | 51% | 68% | +$690 | -$13,111 | 60.6% | $-14,638 (vs do-nothing $-13,132) |
| $11.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.88 | 16/50 | $4,224 | $4,326 | 49% | 68% | +$751 | -$10,405 | 48.1% | $-11,927 (vs do-nothing $-10,421) |
| $11.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.62 | 7/50 | $4,340 | $4,469 | 44% | 67% | +$979 | -$4,734 | 21.9% | $-6,248 (vs do-nothing $-4,741) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.