250 contracts (25,000 sh) | BE SS: $26.40 | CC-SS: $15.30 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $85,000 | (ND $1.40 + SW $2) x 25000 |
| Normal income ref | $29,500/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-52,125 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 250 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 28 Aug 2026 · 8d | 232 × $11.50 | 82% | $14,790 | $833 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 250 × $12.50 | 28 Aug | 8d | 22.2% | 92%hist 97% | 16%hist 10% | +7pp | $1,250 | $4,688 | -$10,103 | $68,633 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 250 × $12.50 22.2% OTM over spot $10.23 28 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.07 mid) = $1,250 credit for the 8d cycle → $4,688/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $12.57) 93% EV / mo +$1,545 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 45% whole by 9mo vs 38% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,852/mo median; plan ~$1,940/mo after 68% keep · $18,709 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.7 mo [1.6-4.6], measured ONLY among the 45% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$13,319 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 11 Sep 2026) $14 @ 77% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 250 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.82/sh now → $0.58 mid-life (likely $0.43–$0.81) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.53/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 242 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $13 (overshoots $0.36). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12.50 is $3 below CC-SS $15.30: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $12.57 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $12.30 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.34 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $15.30, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,125 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$42,675 − CC assignment net of premium (250 × $12.50): -$68,633 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-78,082 ($-25,957 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-16,582 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-61,500, the opportunity cost of earning $4,688/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $12.08 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-36,539 (+$15,586 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 153 × $11.50 | 28 Aug | 8d | 12.4% | 82%hist 87% | 37%hist 30% | +15pp | $2,601 | $9,754 | -$5,036 | $55,467 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 153 × $11.50 12.4% OTM over spot $10.23 28 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.18 mid) = $2,601 credit for the 8d cycle → $9,754/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $11.50) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $11.69) 85% EV / mo +$3,705 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +15pp 54% whole by 9mo vs 39% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $5,019/mo median; plan ~$3,413/mo after 68% keep · $32,583 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.0 mo [1.8-5.3], measured ONLY among the 54% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 25% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,204 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 11 Sep 2026) $13 @ 78% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 153 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.72/sh now → $0.51 mid-life (likely $0.49–$0.79) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.34/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 761 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $12 (overshoots $0.31). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $11.50 is $4 below CC-SS $15.30: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $11.69 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $12.30 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.34 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $15.30, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,125 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$42,675 − CC assignment net of premium (153 × $11.50): -$55,467 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (97 × $15): -$2,767 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-67,684 ($-15,559 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-16,582 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-51,102, the opportunity cost of earning $9,754/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $12.08 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,273, position total $-42,715 (+$9,410 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 232 × $11.50 | 28 Aug | 8d | 12.4% | 82%hist 87% | 37%hist 30% | +22pp | $3,944 | $14,790 | — | $84,107 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 232 × $11.50 12.4% OTM over spot $10.23 28 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.18 mid) = $3,944 credit for the 8d cycle → $14,790/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $11.50) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $11.69) 85% EV / mo +$5,618 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +22pp 62% whole by 9mo vs 39% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $7,388/mo median; plan ~$5,024/mo after 68% keep · $41,281 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.0 mo [1.7-4.8], measured ONLY among the 62% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$7,892 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 11 Sep 2026) $13 @ 78% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 232 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.72/sh now → $0.51 mid-life (likely $0.51–$0.80) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.34/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 833 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $12 (overshoots $0.32). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $11.50 is $4 below CC-SS $15.30: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $11.69 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $12.30 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.34 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $15.30, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,125 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$42,675 − CC assignment net of premium (232 × $11.50): -$84,107 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (18 × $15): -$514 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-94,070 ($-41,945 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-16,582 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-77,488, the opportunity cost of earning $14,790/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $12.08 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,512, position total $-46,033 (+$6,092 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 179 × $10.50 | 28 Aug | 8d | 2.6% | 60%hist 69% | 83%hist 79% | +34pp | $7,876 | $29,535 | +$14,745 | $77,960 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 179 × $10.50 2.6% OTM over spot $10.23 28 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.45 mid) = $7,876 credit for the 8d cycle → $29,535/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $10.50) 60% Breach risk 40% POP (stays ≤ $10.96) 72% EV / mo +$6,463 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +34pp 68% whole by 9mo vs 34% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~6.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $9,255/mo median; plan ~$6,294/mo after 68% keep · $47,497 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.0 mo [1.6-4.9], measured ONLY among the 68% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 67% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$37 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 11 Sep 2026) $13 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 179 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.62/sh now → $0.44 mid-life (likely $0.59–$0.84) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.44/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.00/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,016 simulated challenges: the $10 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $11 (overshoots $0.31). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $10.50 is $5 below CC-SS $15.30: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.44 collected) or spot ≥ $10.96 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $10)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $12.30 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.34 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $15.30, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,125 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$42,675 − CC assignment net of premium (179 × $10.50): -$77,960 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (71 × $15): -$2,026 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-89,435 ($-37,310 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-16,582 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-72,853, the opportunity cost of earning $29,535/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $12.08 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$20,406, position total $-56,874 ($-4,749 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 7 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.337 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$42,675 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-16,582
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $11.50 | 8d | 28 Aug 2026 | $0.17 | 232/250 | $14,790 | $14,826 | 82% | 85% | +$5,618 | -$84,107 | 240.3% | $-94,070 (vs do-nothing $-77,488) |
| $11 | 8d | 28 Aug 2026 | $0.28 | 141/250 | $14,805 | $15,023 | 73% | 79% | +$4,605 | -$56,616 | 161.8% | $-69,175 (vs do-nothing $-52,593) |
| $11 | 15d | 4 Sep 2026 | $0.38 | 195/250 | $14,820 | $14,930 | 69% | 76% | +$2,020 | -$76,348 | 218.1% | $-87,367 (vs do-nothing $-70,785) |
| $11 | 22d | 11 Sep 2026 | $0.54 | 201/250 | $14,801 | $14,899 | 68% | 76% | +$3,378 | -$75,482 | 215.7% | $-86,329 (vs do-nothing $-69,747) |
| $10.50 | 8d | 28 Aug 2026 | $0.44 | 90/250 | $14,850 | $15,170 | 60% | 72% | +$3,249 | -$39,198 | 112.0% | $-53,212 (vs do-nothing $-36,630) |
| $10.50 | 15d | 4 Sep 2026 | $0.59 | 125/250 | $14,750 | $15,000 | 59% | 71% | +$2,370 | -$52,566 | 150.2% | $-65,582 (vs do-nothing $-49,000) |
| $10.50 | 22d | 11 Sep 2026 | $0.59 | 184/250 | $14,804 | $14,936 | 59% | 71% | +$122 | -$77,378 | 221.1% | $-88,710 (vs do-nothing $-72,128) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 250 contracts at the conservative CC.