MARA-LC25 @ $12.32 UNDERWATER $14.08 (53.4% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY
MARA reports 2026-07-29 (Wed), in 16 days. The recommended CC (4d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-07-29.
250 contracts (25,000 sh) | BE SS: $26.40 | CC-SS: $13.93 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
LC: $25 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $2.627/sh)
SP: $15 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $5.241/sh)
HP: $13 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $4.025/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $85,000 | (ND $1.40 + SW $2) x 25000 |
| Normal income ref | $58,636/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $10,841/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-18,250 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$29,318/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$58,636/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
0.6 mo to earn back $35,000
ML VELOCITY
1.4 mo to earn back $85,000
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $13.93 (probe: $14C 11d) still earns $22,500/mo (38% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 Campaign ledger: seeded, nothing tracked yet. Open short calls and banked credits appear here from the next cycle on; CC-SS ratchets down as premium accrues.
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 59 (live) · RSI 52 · MACD bullish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 44 · %B 14 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $15.92 (+29%) · daily UBB $15.41 · 1-wk expected move ±$1 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-29: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $13.93 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
💰 Richer · sell 250 × $14.50 31 Jul 2026 (18d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $14.50)
83%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 250 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 9 of 18); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.65/sh now → $1.16 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.43/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.73/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (250 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
💰 Richer · sell 250 × $15.50 31 Jul 2026 (18d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $15.50)
90%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 250 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 9 of 18); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.83/sh now → $1.30 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.23/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.07/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (250 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🎯 Recommended · sell 250 × $14 17 Jul 2026 (4d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $14)
94%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 250 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $0.95/sh now → $0.67 mid-life (likely $0.57–$1.15) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.53/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 219 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $14 (overshoots $0.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (250 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$14 | 24 Jul 2026 | 9d left | +$0.28/sh | +$7,048 cycle +$10,548 [+$3,452…+$10,099] · 87% credit | 70% surv 53% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$15 | 31 Jul 2026 | 16d left | +$0.16/sh | +$4,009 cycle +$7,509 [-$1,240…+$7,084] · 73% credit | 78% surv 70% |
| SS $26 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$15 | 24 Jul 2026 | 9d left | +$0.06/sh | +$1,545 cycle +$5,045 [-$3,213…+$4,023] · 55% credit | 77% surv 66% |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$16 | 31 Jul 2026 | 16d left | -$0.08/sh | -$2,022 cycle +$1,478 [-$8,728…+$620] · 30% credit | 84% surv 80% |
| budget: banked $3,500 debit $2,022 (58% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,478 cash · rolled 250 ct earn ≈ $27,803/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (8 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 8 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$36,381 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $18,381
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $13.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.24 | 163/250 | $29,340 | $29,577 | 87% | 91% | +$23,618 | -$3,129 | 8.9% | $15,090 (vs do-nothing $-3,292) |
| $13.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.47 | 229/250 | $29,354 | $29,411 | 76% | 83% | +$15,889 | -$0 | 0.0% | $19,024 (vs do-nothing +$642) |
| $13 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.39 | 101/250 | $29,542 | $29,949 | 75% | 85% | +$20,383 | -$5,474 | 15.6% | $12,807 (vs do-nothing $-5,575) |
| $13 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.63 | 171/250 | $29,381 | $29,596 | 67% | 78% | +$13,286 | -$5,163 | 14.8% | $13,047 (vs do-nothing $-5,334) |
| $13 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.85 | 207/250 | $29,325 | $29,442 | 65% | 77% | +$11,002 | -$1,696 | 4.8% | $16,478 (vs do-nothing $-1,903) |
| $12.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.61 | 65/250 | $29,738 | $30,242 | 59% | 78% | +$16,417 | -$5,343 | 15.3% | $12,974 (vs do-nothing $-5,408) |
| $12.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.86 | 125/250 | $29,318 | $29,659 | 57% | 74% | +$11,290 | -$7,149 | 20.4% | $11,107 (vs do-nothing $-7,274) |
| $12.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.13 | 156/250 | $29,380 | $29,636 | 57% | 73% | +$10,419 | -$4,710 | 13.5% | $13,515 (vs do-nothing $-4,866) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 250 contracts at the conservative CC.