MARA-LC25 @ $12.43 UNDERWATER $13.97 (52.9% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT
MARA reports 2026-07-29 (Wed), in 16 days. The recommended CC (18d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-29.
250 contracts (25,000 sh) | BE SS: $26.40 | CC-SS: $14.12 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
LC: $25 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $2.627/sh)
SP: $15 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $5.241/sh)
HP: $13 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $4.025/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $85,000 | (ND $1.40 + SW $2) x 25000 |
| Normal income ref | $58,636/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $10,841/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-18,250 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$29,318/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$58,636/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
0.6 mo to earn back $35,000
ML VELOCITY
1.4 mo to earn back $85,000
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $14.12 (probe: $14C 11d) still earns $22,500/mo (38% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 Campaign ledger: seeded, nothing tracked yet. Open short calls and banked credits appear here from the next cycle on; the banked-floor (info) shows how far premium would ratchet the floor, but the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike.
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 61 (live) · RSI 52 · MACD bullish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 44 · %B 17 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $15.92 (+28%) · daily UBB $15.40 · 1-wk expected move ±$1 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-29: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $14.12 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
🎯 Recommended · sell 250 × $14.50 31 Jul 2026 (18d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $14.50)
81%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 250 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 9 of 18); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.53/sh now → $1.08 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.43/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.65/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (250 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 250 × $15 24 Jul 2026 (11d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $15)
91%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 250 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.25/sh now → $0.88 mid-life (likely $0.73–$1.22) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.71/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 396 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 11, at $15 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (250 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$15 | 31 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.39/sh | +$9,671 cycle +$13,921 [+$8,933…+$13,480] · 100% credit | 71% surv 54% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$16 | 31 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.10/sh | +$2,567 cycle +$6,817 [+$966…+$5,172] · 86% credit | 74% surv 62% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$16 | 31 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.10/sh | +$2,567 cycle +$6,817 [+$966…+$5,172] · 86% credit | 74% surv 62% |
| SS $26 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$16 | 31 Jul 2026 | 12d left | -$0.09/sh | -$2,359 cycle +$1,891 [-$4,683…-$184] · 23% credit | 77% surv 68% |
| budget: banked $4,250 debit $2,359 (56% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,891 cash · rolled 250 ct earn ≈ $49,334/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 250 × $18 17 Jul 2026 (4d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $18)
100%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 250 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.24/sh now → $0.88 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.87/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (250 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$18 | 24 Jul 2026 | 9d left | +$0.55/sh | +$13,734 cycle +$13,984 | 71% surv 53% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$20 | 24 Jul 2026 | 9d left | +$0.02/sh | +$616 cycle +$866 | 80% surv 72% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$22 | 31 Jul 2026 | 16d left | +$0.00/sh | +$71 cycle +$321 | 85% surv 81% |
| SS $26 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (8 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 8 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.447 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$18,865 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $865
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $13.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.24 | 163/250 | $29,340 | $29,577 | 84% | 89% | +$21,881 | -$6,163 | 17.6% | $-5,462 (vs do-nothing $-6,326) |
| $13.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.47 | 229/250 | $29,354 | $29,411 | 74% | 81% | +$14,236 | -$3,392 | 9.7% | $-2,756 (vs do-nothing $-3,621) |
| $13 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.39 | 101/250 | $29,542 | $29,949 | 72% | 82% | +$18,125 | -$7,354 | 21.0% | $-6,590 (vs do-nothing $-7,455) |
| $13 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.63 | 171/250 | $29,381 | $29,596 | 65% | 76% | +$11,593 | -$8,347 | 23.8% | $-7,653 (vs do-nothing $-8,518) |
| $13 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.85 | 207/250 | $29,325 | $29,442 | 63% | 75% | +$9,362 | -$5,550 | 15.9% | $-4,892 (vs do-nothing $-5,757) |
| $12.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.13 | 156/250 | $29,380 | $29,636 | 55% | 72% | +$8,899 | -$7,615 | 21.8% | $-6,906 (vs do-nothing $-7,771) |
| $12.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.86 | 125/250 | $29,318 | $29,659 | 54% | 72% | +$9,562 | -$9,476 | 27.1% | $-8,737 (vs do-nothing $-9,601) |
| $12.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.61 | 65/250 | $29,738 | $30,242 | 54% | 75% | +$13,850 | -$6,553 | 18.7% | $-5,753 (vs do-nothing $-6,618) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 250 contracts at the conservative CC.