MARA-LC25 @ $12.25 UNDERWATER $14.15 (53.6% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT
MARA reports 2026-07-29 (Wed), in 16 days. The recommended CC (18d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-29.
250 contracts (25,000 sh) | BE SS: $26.40 | CC-SS: $14.41 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
LC: $25 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $2.627/sh)
SP: $15 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $5.241/sh)
HP: $13 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $4.025/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $85,000 | (ND $1.40 + SW $2) x 25000 |
| Normal income ref | $40,909/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $11,062/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-24,125 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$20,455/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$40,909/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
0.9 mo to earn back $35,000
ML VELOCITY
2.1 mo to earn back $85,000
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $14.41 (probe: $14.5C 11d) still earns $10,227/mo (25% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 Campaign ledger: seeded, nothing tracked yet. Open short calls and banked credits appear here from the next cycle on; the banked-floor (info) shows how far premium would ratchet the floor, but the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike.
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 57 (live) · RSI 50 · MACD bullish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 43 · %B 16 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $15.95 (+30%) · daily UBB $15.40 · 1-wk expected move ±$2 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-29: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $14.41 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
🎯 Recommended · sell 250 × $14.50 31 Jul 2026 (18d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $14.50)
82%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 250 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 9 of 18); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.33/sh now → $0.94 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.64/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (250 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 250 × $15 24 Jul 2026 (11d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $15)
90%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 250 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.06/sh now → $0.75 mid-life (likely $0.64–$1.08) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.64/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 455 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 11, at $15 (overshoots $0.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (250 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$15 | 31 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.21/sh | +$5,271 cycle +$8,021 [+$4,213…+$8,626] · 100% credit | 66% surv 54% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$16 | 31 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.03/sh | +$698 cycle +$3,448 [-$687…+$2,838] · 64% credit | 73% surv 64% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$16 | 31 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.03/sh | +$698 cycle +$3,448 [-$687…+$2,838] · 64% credit | 73% surv 64% |
| SS $26 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 250 × $20 24 Jul 2026 (11d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $20)
99%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 250 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.68/sh now → $1.19 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (250 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$20 | 31 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.34/sh | +$8,532 cycle +$8,782 | 67% surv 54% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$21 | 31 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.06/sh | +$1,420 cycle +$1,670 | 74% surv 65% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$21 | 31 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.06/sh | +$1,420 cycle +$1,670 | 74% surv 65% |
| SS $26 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (9 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 9 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.441 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$23,865 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-10
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $13.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.12 | 228/250 | $20,520 | $20,580 | 83% | 85% | +$5,684 | -$18,117 | 51.8% | $-18,355 (vs do-nothing $-18,345) |
| $13.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.30 | 250/250 | $20,455 | $20,455 | 75% | 79% | +$2,230 | -$15,365 | 43.9% | $-15,625 (vs do-nothing $-15,615) |
| $13 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.21 | 130/250 | $20,475 | $20,802 | 73% | 78% | +$3,789 | -$15,660 | 44.7% | $-15,800 (vs do-nothing $-15,790) |
| $13.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.51 | 241/250 | $20,485 | $20,510 | 72% | 78% | +$4,264 | -$9,751 | 27.9% | $-10,002 (vs do-nothing $-9,992) |
| $13 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.44 | 171/250 | $20,520 | $20,735 | 68% | 75% | +$3,499 | -$16,666 | 47.6% | $-16,847 (vs do-nothing $-16,837) |
| $13 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.65 | 189/250 | $20,475 | $20,641 | 65% | 74% | +$3,054 | -$14,451 | 41.3% | $-14,650 (vs do-nothing $-14,640) |
| $12.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.37 | 74/250 | $20,535 | $21,015 | 60% | 70% | +$2,630 | -$11,430 | 32.7% | $-11,514 (vs do-nothing $-11,504) |
| $12.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.60 | 125/250 | $20,455 | $20,795 | 58% | 69% | +$607 | -$16,433 | 47.0% | $-16,568 (vs do-nothing $-16,558) |
| $12.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.84 | 147/250 | $20,580 | $20,861 | 58% | 70% | +$2,290 | -$15,797 | 45.1% | $-15,954 (vs do-nothing $-15,944) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 250 contracts at the conservative CC.