MARA-LC25 @ $12.06 UNDERWATER $14.33 (54.3% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY
MARA reports 2026-07-29 (Wed), in 15 days. The recommended CC (10d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-07-29.
PARTIAL: 5 of 250 contracts already capped (5x $14C). FIGHTing the 245 uncapped; all figures (income, hedge, cap give-up) are for that slice.
245 of 250 contracts (24,500 sh uncapped) | BE SS: $26.40 | CC-SS: $13.69 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
LC: $25 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $2.627/sh)
SP: $15 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $5.241/sh)
HP: $13 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $4.025/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $83,300 | (ND $1.40 + SW $2) x 24500 |
| Normal income ref | $42,154/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $10,329/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-16,783 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$21,077/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$42,154/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
0.8 mo to earn back $34,300
ML VELOCITY
2.0 mo to earn back $83,300
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $13.69 (probe: $13.5C 17d) still earns $19,024/mo (45% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-13; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-13
$0
Hole (after banked)
$16,783
was $16,783 · 0% earned back
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|
| 5x $13.5C 17 Jul 2026 | U13190865 | $0.11 | $56 | 2026-07-14 |
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 55 (live) · RSI 49 · MACD bullish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 42 · %B 13 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $15.93 (+32%) · daily UBB $15.44 · 1-wk expected move ±$2 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-29: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $13.69 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
🎯 Recommended · sell 245 × $14 24 Jul 2026 (10d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $14)
85%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 245 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.03/sh now → $0.73 mid-life (likely $0.65–$1.07) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.53/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 656 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $14 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (245 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$14 | 31 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.34/sh | +$8,280 cycle +$13,180 [+$7,303…+$10,931] · 100% credit | 69% surv 54% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$14 | 31 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.11/sh | +$2,625 cycle +$7,525 [+$767…+$4,407] · 87% credit | 71% surv 60% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$14 | 31 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.11/sh | +$2,625 cycle +$7,525 [+$767…+$4,407] · 87% credit | 71% surv 60% |
| SS $26 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$15 | 31 Jul 2026 | 12d left | -$0.03/sh | -$838 cycle +$4,062 [-$3,150…+$610] · 30% credit | 76% surv 67% |
| budget: banked $4,900 debit $838 (17% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$4,062 cash · rolled 245 ct earn ≈ $42,506/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 245 × $14.50 24 Jul 2026 (10d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $14.50)
90%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 245 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.09/sh now → $0.77 mid-life (likely $0.64–$1.08) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.64/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 421 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $15 (overshoots $0.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (245 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$14 | 31 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.36/sh | +$8,743 cycle +$11,928 [+$8,028…+$11,900] · 100% credit | 69% surv 54% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$15 | 31 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.12/sh | +$3,018 cycle +$6,203 [+$1,549…+$5,691] · 91% credit | 71% surv 60% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$15 | 31 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.12/sh | +$3,018 cycle +$6,203 [+$1,549…+$5,691] · 91% credit | 71% surv 60% |
| SS $26 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$15 | 31 Jul 2026 | 12d left | -$0.02/sh | -$417 cycle +$2,768 [-$2,340…+$1,788] · 42% credit | 75% surv 67% |
| budget: banked $3,185 debit $417 (13% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2,768 cash · rolled 245 ct earn ≈ $46,121/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 245 × $21 24 Jul 2026 (10d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $21)
100%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 245 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.00/sh now → $1.41 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.40/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (245 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$21 | 31 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.64/sh | +$15,796 cycle +$16,041 | 70% surv 55% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$22 | 31 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.27/sh | +$6,588 cycle +$6,833 | 73% surv 62% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$22 | 31 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.27/sh | +$6,588 cycle +$6,833 | 73% surv 62% |
| SS $26 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (10 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 10 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.429 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$17,126 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $589
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $13.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.09 | 235/245 | $21,150 | $21,180 | 90% | 92% | +$14,277 | -$2,454 | 7.2% | $-2,101 (vs do-nothing $-2,689) |
| $13 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.17 | 124/245 | $21,080 | $21,443 | 81% | 85% | +$11,241 | -$6,503 | 19.0% | $-6,038 (vs do-nothing $-6,627) |
| $13 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.41 | 172/245 | $21,156 | $21,375 | 71% | 78% | +$6,324 | -$4,892 | 14.3% | $-4,476 (vs do-nothing $-5,064) |
| $13 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.64 | 187/245 | $21,120 | $21,294 | 68% | 76% | +$5,855 | -$1,018 | 3.0% | $-616 (vs do-nothing $-1,205) |
| $12.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.32 | 66/245 | $21,120 | $21,657 | 67% | 77% | +$8,496 | -$5,771 | 16.8% | $-5,249 (vs do-nothing $-5,837) |
| $12.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.58 | 122/245 | $21,228 | $21,597 | 62% | 74% | +$5,552 | -$7,496 | 21.9% | $-7,029 (vs do-nothing $-7,618) |
| $12.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.78 | 154/245 | $21,198 | $21,471 | 61% | 73% | +$4,028 | -$6,382 | 18.6% | $-5,948 (vs do-nothing $-6,536) |
| $12 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.04 | 115/245 | $21,106 | $21,496 | 53% | 69% | +$3,895 | -$7,526 | 21.9% | $-7,052 (vs do-nothing $-7,641) |
| $12 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.80 | 88/245 | $21,120 | $21,591 | 52% | 69% | +$4,119 | -$7,871 | 22.9% | $-7,370 (vs do-nothing $-7,959) |
| $12 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.52 | 41/245 | $21,320 | $21,932 | 49% | 69% | +$5,300 | -$4,815 | 14.0% | $-4,267 (vs do-nothing $-4,856) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 245 contracts at the conservative CC.